The Comeback of Ancient Superstition and Self-Flagellation

 

In the ancient world, people dealt with the unknown future by bribing the gods, offering up children and animals and crops in order to purchase a better outcome. In other words, they pre-emptively accepted punishment in order to limit the total damage. It sounds crazy and irrational, of course.  But I think we are seeing precisely the same thing right now.

I see people in my community, city, and across the world telling themselves and everyone else that what is needed most of all is self-sacrifice. The more we isolate, the more we become impoverished, the more we suffer and endure, the better the outcome will be. The bogeyman Corona will spare those who suffer the most.

To me, this is human nature reasserting itself after all these years. We make fun of ancient peoples, sacrificing virgins and goats and undergoing needless suffering just to appease the gods. But they were dealing with the unknown – and we have the very same fear right now. Whatever Corona may or may not be, the most repeated – and terrifying – phrase is “we don’t know.” Indeed, even when we do know things, people insist on remaining in the dark: it makes the wallowing that much sweeter.

So we find ourselves in a situation very much like the Ancient Greeks: by all means, claim that we are enlightened and logical and rational – but don’t forget to pay off the gods. Find ways to suffer, so that they do not strike us down.

To me, this helps explain why people are spending comparatively little energy focused on solutions, like treatments and mass testing and getting to Herd Immunity. Instead, we have a collective that is wallowing deep within the morass of our own misery and fear. In the streets I see people who are deeply afraid to show happiness or joy; any who stand out from the collective are inviting the Evil Eye, virtually begging to become struck by The Bug.

Indeed, the entire saga has become a massive opportunity for social shaming. I think at a primitive level, most people think they deserve the misery. Freedoms? Pshaw! Never in the history of America has the citizenry been happier to accept a dictatorial government. We have it coming. The gods must be appeased. We must suffer, as enduring the suffering is our great test.

Perhaps if we are able to recognize the deeply irrational responses to Corona for what they are, then we can lift ourselves out of a self-inflicted situation. We are in the midst of a crisis of confidence, but it is more than that: The Corona Panic is rapidly becoming the case study in how people, faced with happiness and hope and prosperity, instead choose to give into their fears and, like a superstitious primitive tribe living in the shadow of the Volcano God, seek a safe and oppressed misery by suffering for the sake of not incurring the god’s wrath.

If we do not put a stop to this madness and soon, then we are threatening the future of our civilization. Thousands of years may have passed, but mankind is still haunted by the very same fears and superstitions that have always been with us.

In order to survive and prosper, we must deflect those fears and turn them into positive actions and outcomes.

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  1. MISTER BITCOIN Inactive
    MISTER BITCOIN
    @MISTERBITCOIN

    We need more rational optimism vs irrational panic.

    Progressives want to use this ‘crisis’ to pursue the green new deal i.e. a Marxist state run by progressive technocrats.

    In times of crisis, we need less government not more.  Deregulate everything.  Suspend statutory law and move toward a common law system.  Deadwood (hbo) season one.

    During a pandemic or epidemic, government should focus on how to contain the disease, i.e. how to get the transmission rate under 1 without shutting down the economy.

    I also love how we shut down the private sector but the public sector stays alive.

     

    • #1
  2. MISTER BITCOIN Inactive
    MISTER BITCOIN
    @MISTERBITCOIN

    People who are immune or have recovered from covid-19 should help hospitals, grocery stores or any business that is understaffed and overworked.

    Or be able to deliver food or people, i.e. postmates, door dash, Lyft, etc.

    Or return to work

    There is no reason why these people should suffer economically.

    By letting them return to ‘normalcy’ we as a nation will benefit.

    “We are all in this together” is juvenile collectivism.

     

    • #2
  3. MarciN Member
    MarciN
    @MarciN

    Nothing makes doctors crazier than pneumonia. And who can blame them? It’s a treacherous stalker who comes in at night and kills their patients, people they have been taking care of successfully and would continue to do so were it not for that. For doctors to see their hospitals covered in pneumonia viruses has got to be the most upsetting thing that could happen to them.

    The only cures for their anxiety will be effective treatments, vaccines, and a thorough disinfection of their hospitals from top to bottom.

    Our doctors have been doing a pretty good job of improving and maintaining the health of the American people. The advances in medicine that have come about since World War II in every area of specialization are western civilization’s greatest achievement. For doctors to have so much power to heal and to improve the quality of people’s lives and to see all of it threatened by this virus has got to be ridiculously painful.

    The economy relies in large part on a healthy American public. I’ve been wondering how much of the economy is centered on tourism, travel and leisure, and celebrations like graduations, commencements, weddings, and reunions. None of those things are going to rebound until we figure out who is immune to this virus. People won’t gather together until they feel confident that they won’t get sick from doing so. There’s simply no shortcut here. Their confidence is gone.

    I’ve seen so many encouraging stories in the past few weeks of effective treatments that I am hopeful this will be resolved soon. Apparently Bill Gates is getting something like eight manufacturing operations going right now so that any one of these operations can be up and running immediately when a vaccine is proven safe and effective. He’s got confidence that one of the companies currently working on a vaccine will be successful soon. Perhaps the Israelis and Johnson & Johnson. We will be ready on the manufacturing and distribution end.

    In the meantime, the number of people who have had it and recovered is growing, so that’s a start at rebuilding businesses. We’ll just have to devote as much attention and energy at helping companies restart their businesses after this is over as we are devoting to finding an effective treatment and vaccine.

    • #3
  4. MISTER BITCOIN Inactive
    MISTER BITCOIN
    @MISTERBITCOIN

    MarciN (View Comment):

    Nothing makes doctors crazier than pneumonia. And who can blame them? It’s a treacherous stalker who comes in at night and kills their patients, people they have been taking care of successfully and would continue to do so were it not for that. For doctors to see their hospitals covered in pneumonia viruses has got to be the most upsetting thing that could happen to them.

    The only cures for their anxiety will be effective treatments, vaccines, and a thorough disinfection of their hospitals from top to bottom.

    I’ve been praying for them constantly because they are intelligent and successful people who are used to being in control of their hospitals. I can’t imagine the emotional toll this is taking on them. Many of the specialists are on furlough right now. They have nowhere to work.

    Our doctors have been doing a pretty good job of improving and maintaining the health of the American people. The advances in medicine that have come about since World War II in every area of specialization are western civilization’s greatest achievement. For doctors to have so much power to heal and to improve the quality of people’s lives and to see all of it threatened by this virus has got to be ridiculously painful.

    The economy relies in large part on a healthy American public. I’ve been wondering how much of the economy is centered on tourism, travel and leisure, and celebrations like graduations, commencements, weddings, and reunions. None of those things are going to rebound until we figure out who is immune to this virus. People won’t gather together until they feel confident that they won’t get sick from doing so. There’s simply no shortcut here. Their confidence is gone.

    I’ve seen so many encouraging stories in the past few weeks of effective treatments that I am hopeful this will be resolved soon. Apparently Bill Gates is getting something like eight manufacturing operations going right now so that any one of these operations can be up and running immediately when a vaccine is proven safe and effective. He’s got confidence that one of the companies currently working on a vaccine will be successful soon. Perhaps the Israelis and Johnson & Johnson. We will be ready on the manufacturing and distribution end.

    In the meantime, the number of people who have had it and recovered is growing, so that’s a start at rebuilding businesses. We’ll just have to devote as much attention and energy at helping companies restart their businesses after this is over as we are devoting to finding an effective treatment and vaccine.

    why are specialists on furlough?  specialists are also doctors who can assist in ER and ICU or the waiting room

     

    • #4
  5. Southern Pessimist Member
    Southern Pessimist
    @SouthernPessimist

    I am self isolating in West Palm Beach and Mrs. Pessimist and I take our two mutts for a walk along Flagler Drive each night at sunset. It is a nice walkway along the inter coastal waterway with gorgeous mansions and beautiful people, some of whom live in those mansions. At 8 PM everyone comes out from their home and loudly claps and cheers for health care workers. Now is not the time to be cynical or not appreciative of the basic goodness in all of us.

    • #5
  6. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Southern Pessimist (View Comment):
    At 8 PM everyone comes out from their home and loudly claps and cheers for health care workers. Now is not the time to be cynical or not appreciative of the basic goodness in all of us.

    It’s the time for all of the above. It’s the time for some to be cynical, and it’s the time for others to express appreciation for health care workers. In fact, some people can do both, and can also chew gum and walk at the same time. Nothing wrong with that. It’s the time for some to be optimistic and it’s the time for others to be pessimistic, and it’s the time for yet others to be both or neither.

    However, if we’re all expected to emote the same way at this time, then I’d say the Coronavirus Disease has done more damage than anyone has yet talked about.

    • #6
  7. Steven Seward Member
    Steven Seward
    @StevenSeward

    iWe:

    Whatever Corona may or may not be, the most repeated – and terrifying – phrase is “we don’t know.” Indeed, even when we do know things, people insist on remaining in the dark: it makes the wallowing that much sweeter.

    I get tired of hearing the phrase “we don’t know.”  Invariably it is spoken by the people who are always pushing the worst-case scenarios, and it seems to me like an excuse for not having actual evidence to support their dire projections.

    The more I delve into information on this Covid 19 thing, the more I find out that we do know, and the knowledge  is growing every day.  There is also 150 years of research into infectious diseases to draw upon.  The virus’s exact RNA may be a new strain, but it is not so radically different as to be like the Andromeda Strain in the movie, a germ from outer space never seen before.

    • #7
  8. MISTER BITCOIN Inactive
    MISTER BITCOIN
    @MISTERBITCOIN

    Steven Seward (View Comment):

    iWe:

    Whatever Corona may or may not be, the most repeated – and terrifying – phrase is “we don’t know.” Indeed, even when we do know things, people insist on remaining in the dark: it makes the wallowing that much sweeter.

    I get tired of hearing the phrase “we don’t know.” Invariably it is spoken by the people who are always pushing the worst-case scenarios, and it seems to me like an excuse for not having actual evidence to support their dire projections.

    The more I delve into information on this Covid 19 thing, the more I find out that we do know, and the knowledge is growing every day. There is also 150 years of research into infectious diseases to draw upon. The virus’s exact RNA may be a new strain, but it is not so radically different as to be like the Andromeda Strain in the movie, a germ from outer space never seen before.

    completely agree

    ‘we don’t know’ is another way of saying we are too lazy and don’t want to think about the problem.

    There is much we don’t know but it’s a mistake to say we know nothing (you know nothing, Jon Snow).

    Scenario analysis is an evolving exercise. We make certain assumptions and then we change those assumptions as we learn new information.

    These doomsday scenarios assume that we know nothing and that we don’t learn new information and that we don’t adjust to changing circumstances.

    lazy lazy lazy

     

    • #8
  9. Mendel Inactive
    Mendel
    @Mendel

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):
    We need more rational optimism vs irrational panic.

    Actually, at the present time I think even rational pessimism would be a major step up from our current conditions of irrational panic and irrational trivialization that are pervading the public.

    • #9
  10. Mendel Inactive
    Mendel
    @Mendel

    iWe: To me, this helps explain why people are spending comparatively little energy focused on solutions, like treatments and mass testing and getting to Herd Immunity. Instead, we have a collective that is wallowing deep within the morass of our own misery and fear.

    The frustrating truth is that quite a bit of effort is indeed underway on these topics and more, but is getting very little attention in the US.

    Another frustrating truth is that many of the topics you want people to focus on may indeed prove to be much more difficult than we like. After years of being on this site, I’ve noticed that people with engineering backgrounds have difficulty appreciating how thorny biomedical research can often be, and how little we know (comparatively) even about topics we’ve studied for decades.

    However, that’s not reason for total pessimism. Even if topics like rapidly increasing testing capacity, developing a drug, or getting to herd immunity may well be much more difficult than you realize, there are other approaches with a much higher hope of success: developing novel testing strategies that allow for more widespread surveillance even without ramping up actual testing capacity; performing antibody tests on cross-sections of society; performing epidemiological detective work to determine how the big, sudden outbreaks were actually spread and whether schools, buses, or factories really represent a major source of transmission; designing new types of clinics and patient flows that can separate potential Covid-19 patients from non-infected patients and thus prevent major hospital outbreaks; etc.

    And here’s a sprig of hope: Germany is taking the lead on many of these investigations. Yes, Germany. And even better, these efforts are getting lots of play in the German press. Instead of panicked headlines about how city/country X is about to melt in a mushroom cloud, many of the headlines here are about research projects getting underway and task forces being formed to look at rational, step-by-step, actionable approaches to restart society.

    • #10
  11. thelonious Member
    thelonious
    @thelonious

    I wish more people would respond with “I don’t know.” The more this goes on the more I realize people don’t know a darn thing. We don’t know how this will play out. We don’t have enough data. I’m sure modeling has a purpose but at this point I generally think they’re worthless. This reminds me when I’d work on my grandpas farm and  of course after 20 minutes I’d be bored and ask “When are we going to be done?” His response: “We’ll be done when we’re done.” I feel the same about this virus. Nobody really knows when this will be done or how much carnage we’ll have. People who think they know are just talking out of their backsides. I’m sure the doctors in Italy and New York would have a differing opinion about this virus being a superstition. 

    • #11
  12. MISTER BITCOIN Inactive
    MISTER BITCOIN
    @MISTERBITCOIN

    thelonious (View Comment):

    I wish more people would respond with “I don’t know.” The more this goes on the more I realize people don’t know a darn thing. We don’t know how this will play out. We don’t have enough data. I’m sure modeling has a purpose but at this point I generally think they’re worthless. This reminds me when I’d work on my grandpas farm and of course after 20 minutes I’d be bored and ask “When are we going to be done?” His response: “We’ll be done when we’re done.” I feel the same about this virus. Nobody really knows when this will be done or how much carnage we’ll have. People who think they know are just talking out of their backsides. I’m sure the doctors in Italy and New York would have a differing opinion about this virus being a superstition.

    I think understand where you are coming from.

    There is a difference between humility and hubris and nihilism.

    There is, I don’t know but this is my hypothesis.

    The opposite is, I don’t know, let’s give up, the world is ending.

    Last but not least, my favorite is: infection will be 56%, millions of people will die, trust us, we are the experts as you can judge from my hair gel.

     

    What if you were not allowed to work on your grandpa’s farm?

    What if the local government shut down your grandpa’s farm because of covid 19?

    • #12
  13. iWe Coolidge
    iWe
    @iWe

    thelonious (View Comment):
    We don’t know how this will play out. We don’t have enough data.

    And yet, we have to survive. So making injunctions and plans based on ignorance (instead of on limited information) leads to the current disaster.

    We will have a 25-40% unemployment rate very soon if we don’t get back to work soon!

    Is Sweden bending down? They stayed open!

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

     

    • #13
  14. Mendel Inactive
    Mendel
    @Mendel

    iWe (View Comment):

    thelonious (View Comment):
    We don’t know how this will play out. We don’t have enough data.

    And yet, we have to survive. So making injunctions and plans based on ignorance (instead of on limited information) leads to the current disaster.

    We will have a 25-40% unemployment rate very soon if we don’t get back to work soon!

    Except we know very well that in many crisis response situations, it’s often worse to take rapid and decisive responses based on very poor information than to wait a little until better information arrives, even if the situation is obviously deteriorating during that waiting period. Not all crisis response situations, but many.

    I’d also like to point out that your 25-40% unemployment figure is based on models and projections that are at least as shoddy and speculative as the models predicting that more than 2 million Americans might die of Covid-19 within one year without social distancing. I’m not saying it’s implausible (I fear it’s all too plausible); I’m saying you’re demonstrating the exact same type of overconfidence in projections as the people you’re strongly criticizing.

    • #14
  15. MISTER BITCOIN Inactive
    MISTER BITCOIN
    @MISTERBITCOIN

    Mendel (View Comment):

    iWe (View Comment):

    thelonious (View Comment):
    We don’t know how this will play out. We don’t have enough data.

    And yet, we have to survive. So making injunctions and plans based on ignorance (instead of on limited information) leads to the current disaster.

    We will have a 25-40% unemployment rate very soon if we don’t get back to work soon!

    Except we know very well that in many crisis response situations, it’s often worse to take rapid and decisive responses based on very poor information than to wait a little until better information arrives, even if the situation is obviously deteriorating during that waiting period. Not all crisis response situations, but many.

    I’d also like to point out that your 25-40% unemployment figure is based on models and projections that are at least as shoddy and speculative as the models predicting that more than 2 million Americans might die of Covid-19 within one year without social distancing. I’m not saying it’s implausible (I fear it’s all too plausible); I’m saying you’re demonstrating the exact same type of overconfidence in projections as the people you’re strongly criticizing.

    10 million people filed for unemployment — this is not speculation, it’s a fact

     

    • #15
  16. Mendel Inactive
    Mendel
    @Mendel

    thelonious (View Comment):
    I wish more people would respond with “I don’t know.” The more this goes on the more I realize people don’t know a darn thing. We don’t know how this will play out. We don’t have enough data.

    I agree completely.

    Obviously iWe’s point about not becoming completely paralyzed due to not knowing is very valid. And any approach we take is, in some way, “doing something”.

    That’s why I think a good complement to your “admitting we don’t know” is “keeping an open mind”. It’s nearly impossible for people to truly grasp with a situation that requires action but that lacks any level of adequate information. It’s natural that most people will automatically identify strongly with one or another unproven hypothesis.

    What’s most important now is having an open mind to recognize one’s preferred hypothesis might be wrong. And being willing to recognize that possibility sooner rather than later. Sadly, I fear many Americans on both sides are already incapable of doing so unless a major change (a huge wave of death or a sudden, major drop in deaths) occurs in the next two weeks.

    • #16
  17. Mendel Inactive
    Mendel
    @Mendel

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):
    10 million people filed for unemployment — this is not speculation, it’s a fact

    That’s absolutely correct. 10 million people is not 25-40% of the US workforce. That’s a modeled projection.

    I fear it may well end up being true, but that doesn’t make it any more speculative than the 2 million+ deaths figure at the present moment.

    • #17
  18. MISTER BITCOIN Inactive
    MISTER BITCOIN
    @MISTERBITCOIN

    Mendel (View Comment):

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):
    10 million people filed for unemployment — this is not speculation, it’s a fact

    That’s absolutely correct. 10 million people is not 25-40% of the US workforce. That’s a modeled projection.

    I fear it may well end up being true, but that doesn’t make it any more speculative than the 2 million+ deaths figure at the present moment.

     

    I don’t believe in the 2 million death figure.

    I think worst case is 660,000.

    My hypothesis is total deaths will be 33,000 and 165,000 in USA

     

    • #18
  19. Mendel Inactive
    Mendel
    @Mendel

    @iwe, let me clearly state: I agree with almost everything you say. I agree that the majority of Americans are irrationally hysterical in their fear of this virus. I agree that most people are likely gravely underestimating the risk to our economy, and the extent to which a slumped economy will directly result in worse quality of life, worse healthcare, and worse deaths. And my gut sense is that the risks posed by this virus are lower than the median projections of serious epidemiologists.

    Also, I am very exposed to the potential financial risks. I am a small business owner and at real risk of losing my business at an age where I can’t simply reinvent myself in a depressed economy. I am truly looking at lifetime financial ruin here. So I understand your concerns completely; I share most of them.

    The problem is that you’re reacting to hysteria with hysteria. You’re pointing out the overconfidence by others in speculative projections based on limited data while being very overconfident in speculations in the other direction which are also based on very limited data.

    In short, you’re reacting the exact same way as the people you’re criticizing, albeit much more eloquently. But eloquent hysteria doesn’t get anyone through a crisis situation, calmness and composure does.

    • #19
  20. MISTER BITCOIN Inactive
    MISTER BITCOIN
    @MISTERBITCOIN

    Mendel (View Comment):

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):
    10 million people filed for unemployment — this is not speculation, it’s a fact

    That’s absolutely correct. 10 million people is not 25-40% of the US workforce. That’s a modeled projection.

    I fear it may well end up being true, but that doesn’t make it any more speculative than the 2 million+ deaths figure at the present moment.

    You have to think like a poker player.

    You don’t know what cards your opponents have.

    You do the best with the hand you are dealt.

     

    • #20
  21. thelonious Member
    thelonious
    @thelonious

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    thelonious (View Comment):

    I wish more people would respond with “I don’t know.” The more this goes on the more I realize people don’t know a darn thing. We don’t know how this will play out. We don’t have enough data. I’m sure modeling has a purpose but at this point I generally think they’re worthless. This reminds me when I’d work on my grandpas farm and of course after 20 minutes I’d be bored and ask “When are we going to be done?” His response: “We’ll be done when we’re done.” I feel the same about this virus. Nobody really knows when this will be done or how much carnage we’ll have. People who think they know are just talking out of their backsides. I’m sure the doctors in Italy and New York would have a differing opinion about this virus being a superstition.

    I think understand where you are coming from.

    There is a difference between humility and hubris and nihilism.

    There is, I don’t know but this is my hypothesis.

    The opposite is, I don’t know, let’s give up, the world is ending.

    Last but not least, my favorite is: infection will be 56%, millions of people will die, trust us, we are the experts as you can judge from my hair gel.

    What if you were not allowed to work on your grandpa’s farm?

    I have mixed feelings about the last question. Digging up potatoes was tedious but my grandpa had a gift for buying farm equipment that didn’t work. It was great comedy watching him swear and curse at a tractor as he’s banging a wrench on it. I’m pretty sure he taught a few words that I still use to this very day.

     

    • #21
  22. iWe Coolidge
    iWe
    @iWe

    Mendel (View Comment):
    I’d also like to point out that your 25-40% unemployment figure is based on models and projections that are at least as shoddy and speculative as the models predicting….

    I do not think this is correct.

    As of 26 March, Israel’s unemployment rate went from under 4% to 21%. That is not speculative. It is hard data.

    I don’t see any solid reason why the US economy is much more resilient than Israel’s.  And that is just to 26 March.

     

    • #22
  23. iWe Coolidge
    iWe
    @iWe

    Mendel (View Comment):

    The problem is that you’re reacting to hysteria with hysteria. You’re pointing out the overconfidence by others in speculative projections based on limited data while being very overconfident in speculations in the other direction which are also based on very limited data.

    I am actually quite calm. I do not think the unemployment information is baseless speculation – we have early initial data in the US, and some later hard data from Israel. I don’t think >20% unemployment is much of a stretch.

    The Original Post was pointing to the historical similarities, showing how people deal with uncertainty and ignorance in the face of unknown danger by trying to choose their own pain point. I think this is a reasonable thesis.

    I am not hysterical, not in the slightest. But I agree it can be hard to tell online!

    • #23
  24. MISTER BITCOIN Inactive
    MISTER BITCOIN
    @MISTERBITCOIN

    Mendel (View Comment):

    @iwe, let me clearly state: I agree with almost everything you say. I agree that the majority of Americans are irrationally hysterical in their fear of this virus. I agree that most people are likely gravely underestimating the risk to our economy, and the extent to which a slumped economy will directly result in worse quality of life, worse healthcare, and worse deaths. And my gut sense is that the risks posed by this virus are lower than the median projections of serious epidemiologists.

    Also, I am very exposed to the potential financial risks. I am a small business owner and at real risk of losing my business at an age where I can’t simply reinvent myself in a depressed economy. I am truly looking at lifetime financial ruin here. So I understand your concerns completely; I share most of them.

    The problem is that you’re reacting to hysteria with hysteria. You’re pointing out the overconfidence by others in speculative projections based on limited data while being very overconfident in speculations in the other direction which are also based on very limited data.

    In short, you’re reacting the exact same way as the people you’re criticizing, albeit much more eloquently. But eloquent hysteria doesn’t get anyone through a crisis situation, calmness and composure does.

    I think you are being unfair to @iwe.

    Maybe he is being hysterical but it’s not the same level of hysteria as 2 million people will die in America

     

    • #24
  25. iWe Coolidge
    iWe
    @iWe

    Mendel (View Comment):
    Mendel Ricochet Charter Member

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):
    10 million people filed for unemployment — this is not speculation, it’s a fact

    That’s absolutely correct. 10 million people is not 25-40% of the US workforce. That’s a modeled projection.

    Just ensuring we all share the same underlying data: the US Workforce is 165 million people, so 10 million is 6%. This suggests that based on those numbers, our unemployment rate as of 27 March (10 days ago) was about 10%.

    My higher number was from Israel, which shut down harder and faster, and as of last week had a 21% unemployment rate, up from 4%. Admittedly, Israel has (I think)  a bigger tourist, transportation and restaurant component to its employment ranks than does the US.

    • #25
  26. MISTER BITCOIN Inactive
    MISTER BITCOIN
    @MISTERBITCOIN

    iWe (View Comment):

    Mendel (View Comment):
    Mendel Ricochet Charter Member

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):
    10 million people filed for unemployment — this is not speculation, it’s a fact

    That’s absolutely correct. 10 million people is not 25-40% of the US workforce. That’s a modeled projection.

    Just ensuring we all share the same underlying data: the US Workforce is 165 million people, so 10 million is 6%. This suggests that based on those numbers, our unemployment rate as of 27 March (10 days ago) was about 10%.

    My higher number was from Israel, which shut down harder and faster, and as of last week had a 21% unemployment rate, up from 4%. Admittedly, Israel has (I think) a bigger tourist, transportation and restaurant component to its employment ranks than does the US.

    Israel overreacted.  How many covid 19 deaths in Israel?  20? 19? a trivial amount

     

    • #26
  27. iWe Coolidge
    iWe
    @iWe

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    iWe (View Comment):

    My higher number was from Israel, which shut down harder and faster, and as of last week had a 21% unemployment rate, up from 4%. Admittedly, Israel has (I think) a bigger tourist, transportation and restaurant component to its employment ranks than does the US.

    Israel overreacted. How many covid 19 deaths in Israel? 20? 19? a trivial amount

    42, I think. 1/8th the number of Sweden deaths (countries have equivalent populations). 7,500 total cases, so a death rate of 0.005, or half of 1% as of right now.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/

    • #27
  28. Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… Member
    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio…
    @ArizonaPatriot

    iWe: To me, this helps explain why people are spending comparatively little energy focused on solutions, like treatments and mass testing and getting to Herd Immunity.

    iWe, I think that this is the part where you are not thinking clearly.

    Mass testing is not a solution.  It cures no one.  Testing 330 million people is an unbelievably difficult task.  At this point, we don’t even know whether COVID-19 immunity is permanent, or whether reinfection is possible.  We couldn’t even be confident that a positive test would mean that a person could return to work because they can no longer be a carrier.  So, no solution here.  

    There’s a distinction between antibody tests and antigen tests.  Most of the current testing is antigen testing, which only detects a current infection.  An antibody test would test for past infection, too.  Neither is going to help cure anyone.  The antigen testing would be useful because it would give us information about the percentage of the population that has already been infected.

    People are focused on treatments, but most of the reports are sensationalized and without even moderate scientific basis or any statistical comparisons.  People are flying by the seat of their pants.  For all that we know about the methodology of most of the HCQ “studies,” they might as well have been engaging in bloodletting.  (I’m not saying that HCQ doesn’t work — I’m saying that it hasn’t been established, and the docs who are publicizing their results are deliberately failing to do the type of control-group studies that would establish effectiveness.)

    Then there’s Herd Immunity.  You keep using that word.  I do not think it means what you think it means.

    Herd immunity generally means that 80-90% of the population has already been infected, and developed immunity.  First, remember that we don’t even know if immunity to COVID-19 lasts.  Apparently, there are coronaviruses that cause colds, and people are subject to reinfection.

    Second, and worse, getting to 80-90% infection means letting this thing spread like wildfire.  If the death rate is 1% — which has been reported, though my impression is that there is extremely low confidence in any estimate — then let’s do the math.

    Population of 330 million x 80-90% = 264-297 million infected

    264-297 million x 1% death rate = about 2.6-3.0 million deaths.

    So every time you talk about “herd immunity,” you’re actually suggesting that we ought to let these 2.6-3.0 million deaths happen, and get on with life.

    I do not think that our current “lockdown” efforts are going to be effective.  They may help in the short term, but we’re only postponing the problem.  There are two real hopes: (1) the actual death rate is way, way lower than 1% (because vastly more people have been infected than we know); or (2) highly effective treatments are developed inside this 4-6 week period of lockdown.

     

     

     

    • #28
  29. Bob W Member
    Bob W
    @WBob

    There is no comparison between the reason ancient people sacrificed to gods and the reason we are sacrificing in order to beat the virus. The ancients were letting their imaginations of what might be out there control their actions, but we know what the threat is. Whether our approach is the most rational one is another question.

    • #29
  30. iWe Coolidge
    iWe
    @iWe

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):
    At this point, we don’t even know whether COVID-19 immunity is permanent, or whether reinfection is possible.

    This is an oversimplification.

    We know that with all other viruses of this type, infection and rejection of the virus creates an immunity. That immunity will, based on similar viruses, last between 1 year and the rest of your life.  The presence of IGG antibodies will tell you if you are immune.

    • #30
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