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Day 76: COVID-19 What About Sweden?
Today, I turn my attention to Sweden. Powerline blog is focusing on it (I took this post’s title from them) and will periodically report on the numbers there.
Sweden appears to be pursuing a herd immunity strategy permitting the virus to infect the general population with the expectation that with prudence on the part of their people their health care system can handle the number of cases presenting serious symptoms. Can it work? Of course. Whether or not it works it will be an important data point for countries in the West assuming we control for both similarities and dissimilarities between our society and that of Sweden.
You might want to actually pull up the webpage from which I took the screengrab at the top of the post. It shows Sweden normalized for population and compared to other countries. It is also placed on a logarithmic scale which reduces the separations between countries and improves visualization so long as you understand what you are looking at. The graph is a little busy because when normalized for population because Sweden is not included when the graphic is limited to 50 countries or fewer to display. I am uncertain what the filtering criteria is for 10, 25, and 50 countries.
When you follow the Sweden daily plots for each point you get a little information box:
If you put your mouse/pointer on any filled dot on the graph you will see the same information for that country and day whether or not it is the highlighted country.
So how do you judge the success of one country over another in dealing with COVID-19? Sweden, as shown in the screengrab above, is on Day 35 since recording at least 1 case/million population. The US is on Day 28. So let’s isolate data for the US and Sweden on Day 28:
Sweden is experiencing fewer cases even normalized for population and has had a flatter curve overall even though at Day 28 it was experiencing a daily case growth rate of 1.12x. For Sweden in the intervening week, its daily growth rate dropped to 1.05x, but its total cases have nearly doubled (333.6 ->623.5/million population). Is there any place that can be compared directly with Sweden that would contrast mitigation strategies? Let’s look at California:
California implemented a “lockdown” on March 18 (Day 13). Does the data suggest that the “lockdown” strategy was more effective between Days 13 and 28 than Sweden’s less restrictive guidelines? Too soon to tell.
More information about the Swedish experience with COVID-19 is available on Wikipedia. What do you think? Maybe you can find some data on the graphics that make a compelling case out one way or the other.
[Note: Links to all my CoVID-19 posts can be found here.]
Published in General
Did Sweden impose border controls that aren’t being reported widely?
On March 17 Sweden imposed a ban on entry from any country other than EU/EES countries: Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, United Kingdom (United Kingdom), Greece, Ireland, Iceland, Italy, Croatia, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg , Malta, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Switzerland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, the Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary and Austria. Swedes could re-enter the country without regard to what country they were coming from.
From my cousin in Sweden:
“glad to hear that you all are well.We are also Ok and my biggest concern is with my 90 year old mother. She is fine but if she gets infected by the virus, her days are counted.I have been working from my home the last three weeks. It is working well even though I miss my work colleagues. Stores and restaurants are open and we follow the philosophy that each person takes the responsibility of keeping distance, washing hands with soap and if you feel sick you stay at home. People don’t use public transportation if they can walk or use their bike. We also help the elder above 70 to buy food and drinks”
The population density of Sweden is about 56 people per square mile.
The population density of Iowa is about 56 people per square mile.
The population density of California is about 242 people per square mile.
I’m not saying that’s relevant. But just out of curiosity, how does Sweden compare with, say, Iowa?
I think this is strong evidence that Minnesota should adopt the Swedish strategy :-) ?
the comparison to California is tricky because you have 3 or 4 dense metro areas: Los Angeles, San Fran, San Diego, Fresno, maybe Bakersfield
The rest of the state is suburban and rural
Another reason why locking down all of California is/was overkill.
Reducing social and commercial activities in metro areas is justifiable maybe but outside the cities no need to lockdown
Thanks for taking a close look at Sweden Rodin. I wrote about Sweden’s coronavirus policy here at Ricochet the other day.
@henryracette, Iowa is only on Day 26 per the 91-DIVOC metric. If you extraprolate out using the current 1.10x you get 332.75 for day 28. Looks pretty comparable.
I wonder if how huggy a culture is makes a difference.
Thanks Rodin. You’re good.
Apparently Iowa is not in a shutdown either. This epidemic will be a subject of endless fascinating research.
that was a great post
Tbanks MISTER BITCOIN.
We are also going to get some interesting data from Brazil. Given they are taking next to know precautions.
It’s summer time in Brazil now. A lockdown is easier in winter than in summer.
Of course, the same can be said for Sweden. Most of the country is sub-arctic mountain.
Rodin, I like the post and the graphs, which look familiar. :)
I’m skeptical of the way that they offset the trend lines. In this instance, they use the day on which each country passes 1 reported case per million. The shape of the trend line, compared to other countries, is highly dependent on the start date that is selected. I was doing the same thing myself a couple of weeks ago, and I abandoned the idea because of this sensitivity problem.
The challenge of selecting a start date is exacerbated by the differing levels of testing between countries. It’s probably biased in a way that makes the countries with earlier outbreaks look a bit better. I say this because I suspect, for example, that there was less testing in the early period in the very early countries, as the testing procedures had not been ramped up.
It is good that they have a graph adjusted for population, which I started doing with my figures a couple of weeks ago.
Now someone has to compare the economic effects in Sweden vs. California. It could be that Sweden suffers more from Covid-19 in terms of infection rate but comes out stronger economically.
The Left’s gut reaction is to claim that it’s inhuman to put money ahead of public health, but poverty kills way more people than Covid-19 does.
It’s a classic case of the seen vs. the unseen. It’s easy to see the deaths right in front of your eyes, but it’s hard to see the deaths that didn’t occur because of technological advancements and strong economies.
Does that include reindeer and snowmen?
…
Sweden is 87.4% urban. The United States is 82.3% urban.
Colorado which is supposed to be the healthiest state in the US and is 86.2% urban. Colorado’s population density is 52 people per square mile. Perhaps that’s a good comparison, except that Denver is a regional hub with a large airport…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbanization_by_country
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbanization_in_the_United_States
Colorado’s population is about 2/3 of Sweden’s.
And where is it hitting Sweden? Is it in densely populated areas? Or are they doing better as well?
@manbearpig, you can get that info in the wiki page linked in the OP.
Sweden’s deaths per million: 46.18 (and that’s assuming they are not fudging the numbers, like Spain).
USA’s deaths per million: 32.53