Promoted from the Ricochet Member Feed by Editors Created with Sketch. Day 65: COVID-19 “Shelter-in-Place”

 

The US has now surpassed Italy in active COVID-19 cases. That’s the bad news. The good news is that Worldometers.com has added “Total Deaths per Million Population” Column and the US is at 3 as compared to Italy (124), Spain (73), Netherlands (21), France (20), Switzerland (18), and Belgium (15).

New York City is the epicenter of the US pandemic. Many New Yorkers are fleeing to other locations, principally Florida, and those jurisdictions are trying to contend with the possibility that this could be a new source of infection for them. Or as Dr. Birx has called them, “seeds.”

Compare and contrast New York City with two other well-reported locations of high population density — Singapore and Hong Kong. New York City is currently reporting 17,856 active cases. Singapore cases totaled 631 with 469 active cases; Hong Kong cases totaled 410 with 304 active cases. The density of the three locations are: New York City 27,751/sq mi, Singapore 20,212.3/sq mi, Hong Kong 17,552.3/sq mi. Both of the Asian locations have experience with earlier epidemics and have greater social control in their cultures. Singapore was particularly aggressive in its surveillance and quarantine and had prolific public information campaigns very early on. Hong Kong was in the midst of unrest and particularly alert to events occurring in mainland China.

Meanwhile, in my part of the country, there are a total of 2,853 cases in California with 77% of the cases being either in the San Francisco Bay area or the Los Angeles area nearly evenly divided between them.

[Note: Links to all my COVID-19 posts can be found here.]

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  1. MISTER BITCOIN Member

    Weather report:

    Singapore 91 F

    Hong Kong 78 F

    NYC 44 F

    I still think heat and humidity are factors for covid-19.

    Perhaps we are exaggerating its ‘novelty’?

    • #1
    • March 25, 2020, at 1:17 PM PDT
    • 8 likes
    • This comment has been edited.
  2. MISTER BITCOIN Member

    Los Angeles 65 f

    NYC 45 f

     

    • #2
    • March 25, 2020, at 1:19 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
  3. OldPhil Coolidge

    NYC 44 F

    • #3
    • March 25, 2020, at 1:21 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
  4. Roderic Coolidge

    Hospitals all over the country are running out of ICU beds. It’s not just New York City.

     …some people who had contended the country was overreacting insisted, “hospitals are fine.” I’m afraid that is not the case. Once again, wanting something to be true does not make it true, and that kind of thinking is probably what is most dangerous in an evolving crisis.

    In Texas they project that we’ll have 200,000 in need of hospitalization by the middle of May, and we have 50,000 beds. I hope and pray that’s wrong. I hope and pray that hydroxychloroquin-azithromycin is proving to work, or they find something that does now.

    • #4
    • March 25, 2020, at 2:06 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
  5. Kozak Member
    Kozak Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Well in slightly good news Italy seems to have stabilized somewhat, so it looks like their lockdown at least has had an effect.

     

    • #5
    • March 25, 2020, at 2:40 PM PDT
    • 8 likes
  6. Kozak Member
    Kozak Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Rodin: Compare and contrast New York City with two other well-reported locations of high population density — Singapore and Hong Kong.

    Is it the temperature and humidity or the fact they jumped al over this early, did everything right and everyone in public wears a mask.

    I guess time will tell.

    • #6
    • March 25, 2020, at 2:41 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
  7. Ralphie Member

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    Weather report:

    Singapore 91 F

    Hong Kong 78 F

    NYC 44 F

    I still think heat and humidity are factors for covid-19.

    Perhaps we are exaggerating its ‘novelty’?

    I agree. 46 degree 64% H here in Mi today where I am. 

    • #7
    • March 25, 2020, at 2:51 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  8. Scott R Member
    Scott R Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Roderic (View Comment):

    Hospitals all over the country are running out of ICU beds. It’s not just New York City.

    …some people who had contended the country was overreacting insisted, “hospitals are fine.” I’m afraid that is not the case. Once again, wanting something to be true does not make it true, and that kind of thinking is probably what is most dangerous in an evolving crisis.

    In Texas they project that we’ll have 200,000 in need of hospitalization by the middle of May, and we have 50,000 beds. I hope and pray that’s wrong. I hope and pray that hydroxychloroquin-azithromycin is proving to work, or they find something that does now.

    If Texas has 200,000 covid patients in need of hospitalization in May I’ll buy everyone at Ricochet a new car. 

    Consider: Sweltering Bangkok had the most human exchange with Wuhan during the month before China locked Wuhan down. It had a flush of initial cases which then dissipated, and Bangkok is an over-crowded, poor, third-world heap. Houston has Bangkok’s weather, a teensy percentage of its virus seeding, and it’s rich. It’ll be fine. 

     

     

     

    • #8
    • March 25, 2020, at 5:13 PM PDT
    • 9 likes
  9. Roderic Coolidge

    Scott R (View Comment):
    If Texas has 200,000 covid patients in need of hospitalization in May I’ll buy everyone at Ricochet a new car. 

    I hope you’re right about that.

    • #9
    • March 25, 2020, at 5:30 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  10. The Reticulator Member

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):
    I still think heat and humidity are factors for covid-19.

    I’m not planning to think that until I have a reason to think that. 

    • #10
    • March 25, 2020, at 5:50 PM PDT
    • 2 likes
  11. The Reticulator Member

    Roderic (View Comment):

    Scott R (View Comment):
    If Texas has 200,000 covid patients in need of hospitalization in May I’ll buy everyone at Ricochet a new car.

    I hope you’re right about that.

    It’s not a sure thing, but it’s not too early to think about what kind of car you want. 

    • #11
    • March 25, 2020, at 5:51 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
  12. Ontheleftcoast Member

    A physician in a hot zone who has treated “hundreds” with the infection: chloroquin recommended in moderate to high risk patients in the outpatient setting. Perhaps as prophylaxis in very high risk.

     

     

     

    • #12
    • March 25, 2020, at 6:07 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
  13. Misthiocracy held his nose and Member
    Misthiocracy held his nose and Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Switzerland is getting hammered on a per capita basis, but it’s not really in the news much. I wonder why not?

    • #13
    • March 25, 2020, at 6:07 PM PDT
    • 2 likes
  14. Ontheleftcoast Member

    Kozak (View Comment):

    Well in slightly good news Italy seems to have stabilized somewhat, so it looks like their lockdown at least has had an effect.

    Willis Eschenbach at WUWT has a very interesting piece about Italy:

    Here’s what I suspect. I think that the COVID-19 disease got established in a couple of areas in Italy well before anyone even knew the disease was there, perhaps even before the Chinese recognized it as a novel disease.

    And in some fashion, it got into the medical system. Doesn’t matter how. But once there, it was spread invisibly to other patients, in particular the oldest and weakest of the patients. It went from patient to patient, from patient to visitor and back again, and it was also spread by everyone in the hospital from administrators to doctors and nurses to janitors. In many, perhaps most cases, they didn’t even know they were sick, but they were indeed infectious.

    And that’s why the pattern of the Italian deaths is so curious, and their number is so much larger than the rest of the world. It’s not a cross-section of the general population. It’s a cross-section of people who were already quite sick, sick enough that they were already visiting doctors and having procedures or being bedridden in hospitals. It was 85-year-olds with three diseases.

    And it’s also why the death rate in Italy is so high—these people were already very ill. I can see why the Italians are distinguishing between dying FROM the virus and dying WITH the virus.

    DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

    As I said, this is both discouraging and encouraging. It’s discouraging because getting the virus out of a modern medical facility and a dispersed medical system isn’t easy. . . .

    On the other hand, it is encouraging in a couple of aspects.

    First, it lets us know what we need to do to prevent the Italian outcome. We have to, must, keep the virus out the medical system. 

    • We need to seriously quarantine the sufferers away from other sick people.
    • We need to set up testing facilities at all medical centers and test the medical personnel daily.
    • In areas with a number of COVID-19 infections, we need to set up separate field hospitals. . . . We know how to do this stuff, we’ve just got to do it.
    • We need to test in-hospital patients at the time of their arrival and continue to test them at intervals during their stay.
    • We’ll have to be very careful with visitors to patients in the hospitals

    It’s a big job, and we absolutely have to do it.

    Second, it cautions us to not claim that everyone who tests positively for COVID-19 after death actually died FROM the disease. They may very well have died WITH the disease.

    Emphasis added. RTWT

    • #14
    • March 25, 2020, at 6:14 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
  15. MichaelKennedy Coolidge

    Roderic (View Comment):

    Hospitals all over the country are running out of ICU beds. It’s not just New York City.

    …some people who had contended the country was overreacting insisted, “hospitals are fine.” I’m afraid that is not the case. Once again, wanting something to be true does not make it true, and that kind of thinking is probably what is most dangerous in an evolving crisis.

    In Texas they project that we’ll have 200,000 in need of hospitalization by the middle of May, and we have 50,000 beds. I hope and pray that’s wrong. I hope and pray that hydroxychloroquin-azithromycin is proving to work, or they find something that does now.

    I think the same inertia that we have seen with the CDC is operating with the therapy. I would love to know how many people with early symptoms have used hydroxychloroquine to treat the suspected infection. More importantly, testing has been very sluggish. How many people being placed on respirators have had an infusion of remdesivir? I suspect the numbers approach zero.

    • #15
    • March 25, 2020, at 6:52 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
  16. Scott R Member
    Scott R Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    The Reticulator (View Comment):

    Roderic (View Comment):

    Scott R (View Comment):
    If Texas has 200,000 covid patients in need of hospitalization in May I’ll buy everyone at Ricochet a new car.

    I hope you’re right about that.

    It’s not a sure thing, but it’s not too early to think about what kind of car you want.

    Yugos for everyone. Cutting edge of Serbo-Croatian technology. 

    Seriously though, to put that 200,000 estimate in perspective, that would mean that in two months hot Texas would have more hospitalized Covid patients than the whole of planet earth has had in the last three months.

    I just can’t believe that “experts” actually believe such things. The only explanation I can come up with is that they’re lying, but for reasons that they believe to be noble. But it’s not noble.

    • #16
    • March 25, 2020, at 6:55 PM PDT
    • 7 likes
  17. Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… Member

    Misthiocracy held his nose and (View Comment):

    Switzerland is getting hammered on a per capita basis, but it’s not really in the news much. I wonder why not?

    It depends on what you mean by “hammered.”

    Switzerland has a lot of cases, 1,259 per million, which is higher than Italy (1,230) and Spain (1,059). Tiny Luxembourg is actually the highest in W. Europe, with 2,129 cases per million. The US has about 199.

    Switzerland has few deaths, however, about 18 per million, compared to 124 for Italy and 78 for Spain. Luxembourg is at 13, and none of the other W. European countries are over 21. The US is at less than 3.

    At present, the vast bulk of the problem is in Italy and Spain.

    If you combine the US and W. Europe — with a total population of about 738 million — Italy and Spain have 74% of the deaths thus far, with 15% of the population.

     

    • #17
    • March 25, 2020, at 7:30 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
  18. Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… Member

    Roderic (View Comment):

    Hospitals all over the country are running out of ICU beds. It’s not just New York City.

    …some people who had contended the country was overreacting insisted, “hospitals are fine.” I’m afraid that is not the case. Once again, wanting something to be true does not make it true, and that kind of thinking is probably what is most dangerous in an evolving crisis.

    In Texas they project that we’ll have 200,000 in need of hospitalization by the middle of May, and we have 50,000 beds. I hope and pray that’s wrong. I hope and pray that hydroxychloroquin-azithromycin is proving to work, or they find something that does now.

    The problem is that there is little empirical evidence behind this claim (from an article by Jim Geraghty at National Review). There is some data on hospital occupancy — but no indication, for example, of the ordinary levels of occupancy. It would be a difficult thing to analyze, and most of the claims in Geraghty’s argument seem to be based on anticipated problems if a great many new cases arrive.

    The OP shows fewer than 1,400 serious or critical cases in the entire country. I do not know whether this figure is accurate. No figure whatsoever is given in Geraghty’s article.

    If “serious’ means hospitalized, and roughly 20% of hospitalized patients require ICU care (I think that this was the proportion in Italy), then we have — nationwide — a grand total of 280 additional people in the ICU and 1,120 additional people in the hospital. Based on data that I looked up about a week ago, there are over 900,000 hospital beds and about 95,000 ICU rooms in the US.

     

    • #18
    • March 25, 2020, at 7:38 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  19. OldPhil Coolidge

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    Roderic (View Comment):

    Hospitals all over the country are running out of ICU beds. It’s not just New York City.

    …some people who had contended the country was overreacting insisted, “hospitals are fine.” I’m afraid that is not the case. Once again, wanting something to be true does not make it true, and that kind of thinking is probably what is most dangerous in an evolving crisis.

    In Texas they project that we’ll have 200,000 in need of hospitalization by the middle of May, and we have 50,000 beds. I hope and pray that’s wrong. I hope and pray that hydroxychloroquin-azithromycin is proving to work, or they find something that does now.

    The problem is that there is little empirical evidence behind this claim (from an article by Jim Geraghty at National Review). There is some data on hospital occupancy — but no indication, for example, of the ordinary levels of occupancy. It would be a difficult thing to analyze, and most of the claims in Geraghty’s argument seem to be based on anticipated problems if a great many new cases arrive.

    The OP shows fewer than 1,400 serious or critical cases in the entire country. I do not know whether this figure is accurate. No figure whatsoever is given in Geraghty’s article.

    If “serious’ means hospitalized, and roughly 20% of hospitalized patients require ICU care (I think that this was the proportion in Italy), then we have — nationwide — a grand total of 280 additional people in the ICU and 1,120 additional people in the hospital. Based on data that I looked up about a week ago, there are over 900,000 hospital beds and about 95,000 ICU rooms in the US.

    There’s a comment on that Geraghty column from an EMT (at least he says he is) who says it’s chaotic because everyone who feels a little hinky thinks they have it and they’re going to die, so they call 911. Then they have to get transmitted to the ER, take up a bed there, etc., etc. Many of the calls are media-panic driven.

    • #19
    • March 25, 2020, at 7:46 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
  20. Snirtler Member

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    Roderic (View Comment):

    In Texas they project that we’ll have 200,000 in need of hospitalization by the middle of May, and we have 50,000 beds. I hope and pray that’s wrong. I hope and pray that hydroxychloroquin-azithromycin is proving to work, or they find something that does now.

    The problem is that there is little empirical evidence behind this claim (from an article by Jim Geraghty at National Review). There is some data on hospital occupancy — but no indication, for example, of the ordinary levels of occupancy. It would be a difficult thing to analyze, and most of the claims in Geraghty’s argument seem to be based on anticipated problems if a great many new cases arrive.

    The OP shows fewer than 1,400 serious or critical cases in the entire country. I do not know whether this figure is accurate. No figure whatsoever is given in Geraghty’s article.

    If “serious’ means hospitalized, and roughly 20% of hospitalized patients require ICU care (I think that this was the proportion in Italy), then we have — nationwide — a grand total of 280 additional people in the ICU and 1,120 additional people in the hospital. Based on data that I looked up about a week ago, there are over 900,000 hospital beds and about 95,000 ICU rooms in the US.

    Jerry, =) because you’re a sucker for data, these links refer to the same data set on hospital capacity across states.

     

    • #20
    • March 25, 2020, at 8:01 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  21. Scott R Member
    Scott R Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Neil Ferguson, the Imperial College guy who was all over the news last week explaining how his computer models anticipate 1.7 million US deaths and 250,000 UK deaths, said today he now anticipates “substantially less” than 20,000 deaths in the U.K. He also said as many as two thirds of those would likely have died later this year anyway from other illnesses.

    But of course he did.

    • #21
    • March 25, 2020, at 8:06 PM PDT
    • 9 likes
  22. Quietpi Member

    OldPhil (View Comment):
    There’s a comment on that Geraghty column from an EMT (at least he says he is) who says it’s chaotic because everyone who feels a little hinky thinks they have it and they’re going to die, so they call 911. Then they have to get transmitted to the ER, take up a bed there, etc., etc. Many of the calls are media-panic driven.

    This is clearly the case locally. Area ER’s are swamped. Local labs are buried in tests to be processed. And our county stands at 12 confirmed infections.

    • #22
    • March 25, 2020, at 8:13 PM PDT
    • 6 likes
  23. Al French, PIT Geezer Moderator

    My daughter works for a hospital that has 250 total beds. The Portland area hospitals have organized a consortium to deal with the crisis in cooperation with the state health department. Her hospital has been told to prepare for 1200 ICU patients at peak in mid April. It can’t be done. I hope the projections are wrong.

    • #23
    • March 25, 2020, at 8:26 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
  24. Misthiocracy held his nose and Member
    Misthiocracy held his nose and Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Scott R (View Comment):

    Yugos for everyone. Cutting edge of Serbo-Croatian technology. 

     

    • #24
    • March 25, 2020, at 9:17 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
  25. Misthiocracy held his nose and Member
    Misthiocracy held his nose and Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Scott R (View Comment):

    Neil Ferguson, the Imperial College guy who was all over the news last week explaining how his computer models anticipate 1.7 million US deaths and 250,000 UK deaths, said today he now anticipates “substantially less” than 20,000 deaths in the U.K. He also said as many as two thirds of those would likely have died later this year anyway from other illnesses.

    But of course he did.

    I wanna see a coronavirus debate between Neil Ferguson and Niall Ferguson.

    • #25
    • March 25, 2020, at 9:19 PM PDT
    • 7 likes
  26. Al French, PIT Geezer Moderator

    Misthiocracy held his nose and (View Comment):

    Scott R (View Comment):

    Yugos for everyone. Cutting edge of Serbo-Croatian technology.

     

    Not obscure to us geezers.

    • #26
    • March 25, 2020, at 9:34 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
  27. Ralphie Member

    OldPhil (View Comment):
    There’s a comment on that Geraghty column from an EMT (at least he says he is) who says it’s chaotic because everyone who feels a little hinky thinks they have it and they’re going to die, so they call 911. Then they have to get transmitted to the ER, take up a bed there, etc., etc. Many of the calls are media-panic driven.

    I read that too, and believe it is a true assessment. If they don’t have it know, just about everyone I know either thinks they already had it, or knows someone that thinks they had it.

     

    • #27
    • March 25, 2020, at 10:24 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
  28. Ralphie Member

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):
    If “serious’ means hospitalized, and roughly 20% of hospitalized patients require ICU care (I think that this was the proportion in Italy), then we have — nationwide — a grand total of 280 additional people in the ICU and 1,120 additional people in the hospital. Based on data that I looked up about a week ago, there are over 900,000 hospital beds and about 95,000 ICU rooms in the US

    Thought I heard fox business rattle a few stats, but I was driving and can’t recall the exact figures, but it seems it was 3,900+ hospitalized in NY. CNBC about 20% intensive care. prob. about 780, I’d guess, more than that tonight. 

    Detroit News said Beaumount is near capacity, but Henery Ford’s 5 hospitals had 170 patients at the time of the article. It also said they will be working out sharing loads between them where they can. There are also other hospitals in the area. Detroit Receiving, St. Joes, and UofM is in nearby Ann Arbor. Most of Michigan’s cases and deaths are in that cluster of counties. Grand Rapids had one death. The pattern is the larger urban areas so far. It is also not unusual for a lot of rural people to travel to one of the larger hospitals. Lots of low regard for some of the rural medical outfits. I can only think of two major hospitals in the Northern part of lower MI; Alpena General and Munson in TC. Alpena Co didn’t have one positive as of earlier today. Lots’ of old people in that NE part of Lower Mi though.

    My sister’s hospital at Traverse City has about 400 beds, 50% occupancy; surgeries canceled, and corona virus ward set up with patients pending tests. 3 confirmed cases in that area so far. I’m sure there will be more. She also said they are getting a lot of people thinking they have it. They won’t test unless you are sick.

    • #28
    • March 25, 2020, at 10:40 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
  29. Al Sparks Thatcher

    Three (or maybe 3 1/2) random observations:

    It’s about time they provided per capita information when comparing countries with differing populations. The same thing should happen when comparing U.S. states.

    I’ve never been to the Asian cities of Singapore and Hong Kong, but since Asia in general is so much more populous than Europe and the Americas in general, I figured that both cities would have a higher density than New York. Sometimes stereotypes are right. But this one led me wrong.

    I’ve not only been reading Jim Geraghty, but Richard Epstein also. Epstein has been strongly asserting that worldwide deaths from this are unlikely to exceed 50,000. He’s starting to wobble because he also asserted that total U.S. deaths are unlikely to exceed 500, and we’re starting to get close to that mark. But if Epstein turns out to be essentially correct, there will be a reckoning towards medical leadership that were allowed to wreck our economy. That reckoning will mostly be in terms of their loss of credibility. In the U.S., the FDA and CDC have already taken a hit in credibility over their botching of getting testing kits to the public.

    Speaking of which, the FDA is still not allowing home based testing kits.

    • #29
    • March 25, 2020, at 10:54 PM PDT
    • 6 likes
  30. J Ro Member

    Al Sparks (View Comment):

    I’ve not only been reading Jim Geraghty, but Richard Epstein also. Epstein has been strongly asserting that worldwide deaths from this are unlikely to exceed 50,000. He’s starting to wobble because he also asserted that total U.S. deaths are unlikely to exceed 500, and we’re starting to get close to that mark. 

    In today’s “Law Talk” podcast Epstein calls that low estimate of US deaths a “howler” of a mistake and says he should have said “something like 5000”.

    • #30
    • March 26, 2020, at 5:53 AM PDT
    • 3 likes