Contributor Post Created with Sketch. Why a Federal Lockdown Won’t Work

 

Always playing the red vs. blue game, I’ve seen countless blue state friends posting this map from the Washington Post about compliance with “social distancing” orders, as tracked with cell phone data.

Outside of the disturbing privacy implications, this is exactly why a federal lockdown won’t work. For media observers on the East Coast, this is proof of their compliance with “social distancing” orders as opposed to those red-state idiots in the West and in the South. What it actually shows is the difference not in compliance, but in population density and a drastically different way of life.

In Wyoming, a supermarket isn’t around the corner like it is for those in New York or New Jersey.

What the gloating over this map also shows is the disconnect between those who consume the food made on American farms and ranches, and those who are actually working on them. Those going around the corner to their local Whole Foods on the Upper West Side to pick up some steak then return to their apartments to work from home. For a cattle rancher in Wyoming, the one responsible for that steak dinner on the Upper West Side, doesn’t have the luxury of working from home. But the fact that he’s not sitting inside his house doesn’t mean he’s recklessly exposing all of Wyoming. While that Whole Foods patron lives mere feet from his neighbor, the cattle rancher lives miles away from anyone outside of his immediate family. Traveling ten miles away in Wyoming exposes far fewer people than it does in the New York metro area. Traveling ten miles away is necessary in Wyoming; not so much in New York.

Which is why a one-sized fits all lockdown won’t work. The way of life in Wyoming is different than it is in New York, and they have no . Those on the East Coast who are used to shaping public opinion and policy prove with this map, and their gloating, why they cannot be trusted to set nation-wide policy.

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  1. Skyler Coolidge

    I have no idea what you’re talking about because I don’t understand what that map is supposed to be saying.

    Additionally, whoever made that map has chosen colors (I presume) that about 12% of the male population can’t read. I can see the typical colors that I get tripped up on, so I’m only guessing here.

    Also, your concluding paragraph has a sentence that is truncated and appears to be missing a vital point you wanted to make.

    • #1
    • March 25, 2020, at 7:26 AM PDT
    • 4 likes
  2. Valiuth Member
    Valiuth Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    People in low density areas already practice a kind of social distancing. But even they should avoid crowds. You might live 6 miles from your closest neighbor, but if you go out and hug them at a crowded church you’ve gained little. Rural areas have fewer hospitals and it is likely that those might be stripped of resource to send to cities hit earlier and harder. But an outbreak in such a community might come later but will be no less deadly.

    • #2
    • March 25, 2020, at 7:38 AM PDT
    • 3 likes
  3. cdor Member
    cdor Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Yea, it’s a bit of a problem when there is no legend to tell us what the colors stand for. But if your point, Bethany, is that leftists are arrogant, dismissive, jerks. Well, I agree.

    • #3
    • March 25, 2020, at 7:39 AM PDT
    • 10 likes
  4. Merrijane Thatcher

    I don’t know. There seems to be quite a few low-density/farming states in there that are being relatively compliant. But again, it’s hard to read without a key to the map colors.

    • #4
    • March 25, 2020, at 7:44 AM PDT
    • 2 likes
  5. Henry Racette Contributor

    This is a fascinating experiment in federalism in extremis. I hope we continue allowing states to tailor their responses, with a big material assist in technology, information, and emergency resources from the federal government. The $2T money dump doesn’t excite me, but I figure that kind of thing comes with a crisis. We had a debt disaster already; now it’s just bigger.

    • #5
    • March 25, 2020, at 7:50 AM PDT
    • 2 likes
  6. Aaron Miller Member
    Aaron Miller Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    I’ve been visiting local parks and woodlands. That means I walk for miles each day without ever touching anything and rarely passing within a few steps of anyone else. One can be out and about without risking anyone’s health. 

    The stay-at-home order for Harris County (Houston) actually mentions parks as an acceptable outing. We need people healthy with strong immune systems. That requires some exercise and sunshine. 

    • #6
    • March 25, 2020, at 8:13 AM PDT
    • 8 likes
  7. Skyler Coolidge

    Henry Racette (View Comment):

    This is a fascinating experiment in federalism in extremis. I hope we continue allowing states to tailor their responses, with a big material assist in technology, information, and emergency resources from the federal government. The $2T money dump doesn’t excite me, but I figure that kind of thing comes with a crisis. We had a debt disaster already; now it’s just bigger.

    They will always find a reason to go into more debt. We are doomed. 

    • #7
    • March 25, 2020, at 8:14 AM PDT
    • 2 likes
  8. Doug Watt Moderator

    The Big Nowhere has it’s limitations. The Arizona 1st Congressional District, my former District covers 58,608 square miles. If it was a State it would be 25th largest State in the United States. It covers more square miles than the State of New York. There are those that believe living in the bright lights of the City of New York, DC, LA, San Francisco, or Chicago makes them smarter than everyone else. If that is the case than chicks in an incubator are geniuses.

    • #8
    • March 25, 2020, at 8:20 AM PDT
    • 5 likes
    • This comment has been edited.
  9. Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… Member

    The map is from a WaPo article, which links this site. It uses “reduction in distance traveled” as a proxy for “social distancing.”

    I thought that “social distancing” was more about: (1) staying 6′ away from each other, and (2) not meeting in groups of 10 or more. This measure does not capture these activities.

    The grading scale is A-F: 

    • A is aqua, >40% decrease
    • B is green, 30-40%
    • C is olive green, 20-30%
    • D is brown, 10-20%
    • F is orange, <10%

    The map has already changed enormously since the WaPo article. The A’s are now (west to east): CA, NV, CO, TX, LA, MN, IL, MI, OH, PA, NY, MD, NJ, CT, RI, MA, VT, NH.

    Most other states have shifted, though WY, MT, and ID remain unchanged.

    You may not be able to confirm this yourself, as the map is interactive, so it may change again by the time that you check.

     

    • #9
    • March 25, 2020, at 8:23 AM PDT
    • 5 likes
  10. Theodoric of Freiberg Member

    There is no key on the map, so it is incomprehensible.

    • #10
    • March 25, 2020, at 8:35 AM PDT
    • Like
  11. Henry Racette Contributor

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio&hellip; (View Comment):

    The map is from a WaPo article, which links this site. It uses “reduction in distance traveled” as a proxy for “social distancing.”

    I thought that “social distancing” was more about: (1) staying 6′ away from each other, and (2) not meeting in groups of 10 or more. This measure does not capture these activities.

    The grading scale is A-F:

    • A is aqua, >40% decrease
    • B is green, 30-40%
    • C is olive green, 20-30%
    • D is brown, 10-20%
    • F is orange, <10%

    The map has already changed enormously since the WaPo article. The A’s are now (west to east): CA, NV, CO, TX, LA, MN, IL, MI, OH, PA, NY, MD, NJ, CT, RI, MA, VT, NH.

    Most other states have shifted, though WY, MT, and ID remain unchanged.

    You may not be able to confirm this yourself, as the map is interactive, so it may change again by the time that you check.

    It would be nice if some graphically competent sort were to scale the map colors based on the population density of each state. But then that would probably not demonstrate the effect the Post is trying to achieve….

    • #11
    • March 25, 2020, at 8:37 AM PDT
    • 6 likes
  12. Skyler Coolidge

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio&hellip; (View Comment):

    The map is from a WaPo article, which links this site. It uses “reduction in distance traveled” as a proxy for “social distancing.”

    I thought that “social distancing” was more about: (1) staying 6′ away from each other, and (2) not meeting in groups of 10 or more. This measure does not capture these activities.

    The grading scale is A-F:

    • A is aqua, >40% decrease
    • B is green, 30-40%
    • C is olive green, 20-30%
    • D is brown, 10-20%
    • F is orange, <10%

    The map has already changed enormously since the WaPo article. The A’s are now (west to east): CA, NV, CO, TX, LA, MN, IL, MI, OH, PA, NY, MD, NJ, CT, RI, MA, VT, NH.

    Most other states have shifted, though WY, MT, and ID remain unchanged.

    You may not be able to confirm this yourself, as the map is interactive, so it may change again by the time that you check.

    I can’t imagine anyone picking colors more deviously designed to baffle 12% of men with color vision deficiency.

    • #12
    • March 25, 2020, at 8:43 AM PDT
    • 6 likes
    • This comment has been edited.
  13. Seawriter Member

    Doug Watt (View Comment):
    There are those that believe living in the bright lights of the City of New York, DC, LA, San Francisco, or Chicago makes them smarter than everyone else.

    That is because the lights blind them to anything outside their immediate vicinity.

    • #13
    • March 25, 2020, at 8:45 AM PDT
    • 6 likes
  14. MichaelKennedy Coolidge

    The Tucson City Council, reliably leftist, is trying to get the Governor to order a state “lockdown,” so we all have to stay home. Government employees are almost all Democrats and are having a nice paid vacation. We got Mexican food from our local Mexican restaurant Saturday. I suggested they might use their wait staff to deliver. Get them some income, at least.

    • #14
    • March 25, 2020, at 8:51 AM PDT
    • 4 likes
  15. Instugator Thatcher
    Instugator Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio&hellip; (View Comment):

    The map is from a WaPo article, which links this site. It uses “reduction in distance traveled” as a proxy for “social distancing.”

    I thought that “social distancing” was more about: (1) staying 6′ away from each other, and (2) not meeting in groups of 10 or more. This measure does not capture these activities.

    The grading scale is A-F:

    • A is aqua, >40% decrease
    • B is green, 30-40%
    • C is olive green, 20-30%
    • D is brown, 10-20%
    • F is orange, <10%

    The map has already changed enormously since the WaPo article. The A’s are now (west to east): CA, NV, CO, TX, LA, MN, IL, MI, OH, PA, NY, MD, NJ, CT, RI, MA, VT, NH.

    Most other states have shifted, though WY, MT, and ID remain unchanged.

    You may not be able to confirm this yourself, as the map is interactive, so it may change again by the time that you check.

     

    For those whose eyes glazed over or who practice social distancing via tl;dr Jerry’s point is simple.

    To paraphrase – The map doesn’t report accurate social distancing.

    • #15
    • March 25, 2020, at 8:58 AM PDT
    • 5 likes
  16. Jim McConnell Member
    Jim McConnell Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    “There are those that believe living in the bright lights of the City of New York, DC, LA, San Francisco, or Chicago makes them smarter than everyone else. If that is the case than chicks in an incubator are geniuses.”

    @dougwatt, may I “steal” those two sentences? They would add greatly to my cleverness in email messaging.

    • #16
    • March 25, 2020, at 9:07 AM PDT
    • 4 likes
  17. Doug Watt Moderator

    Jim McConnell (View Comment):

    “There are those that believe living in the bright lights of the City of New York, DC, LA, San Francisco, or Chicago makes them smarter than everyone else. If that is the case than chicks in an incubator are geniuses.”

    @dougwatt, may I “steal” those two sentences? They would add greatly to my cleverness in email messaging.

    Of course, I stole it myself.

     

    • #17
    • March 25, 2020, at 9:18 AM PDT
    • 4 likes
  18. namlliT noD Member
    namlliT noD Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Assuming that the virus mostly passes though personal contact, I would think that precautions such as lockdowns, would be dependent upon population density. And perhaps no precautions are necessary below a certain population density.

    The thing is, the population density varies wildly. 

    Here’s a map of population density, by county:

    • #18
    • March 25, 2020, at 9:18 AM PDT
    • 7 likes
  19. Stad Thatcher

    Bethany Mandel: compliance with “social distancing” orders, as tracked with cell phone data.

    Are some states or local municipalities ordering people to turn on their cell phone location services for tracking? Talk about Big Brother . . .

    • #19
    • March 25, 2020, at 9:31 AM PDT
    • Like
  20. Henry Racette Contributor

    Stad (View Comment):

    Bethany Mandel: compliance with “social distancing” orders, as tracked with cell phone data.

    Are some states or local municipalities ordering people to turn on their cell phone location services for tracking? Talk about Big Brother . . .

    Stad, location services needn’t be enabled for cell phone tracking to be performed. The cell network has to have some awareness of where any given phone is located in order to route calls effectively, and that awareness is acquired when the phones contact the local towers, which they do automatically regardless of location service settings.

    • #20
    • March 25, 2020, at 9:36 AM PDT
    • 5 likes
  21. Aaron Miller Member
    Aaron Miller Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Henry Racette (View Comment):

    Stad (View Comment):

    Bethany Mandel: compliance with “social distancing” orders, as tracked with cell phone data.

    Are some states or local municipalities ordering people to turn on their cell phone location services for tracking? Talk about Big Brother . . .

    Stad, location services needn’t be enabled for cell phone tracking to be performed. The cell network has to have some awareness of where any given phone is located in order to route calls effectively, and that awareness is acquired when the phones contact the local towers, which they do automatically regardless of location service settings.

    And yet every day I can manually update my phone’s PRL and note a significant improvement of reception. Granted, I think Sprint is in the process of updating their towers for 5G now. 

    • #21
    • March 25, 2020, at 10:02 AM PDT
    • 1 like
  22. Full Size Tabby Member

    As I noted in yesterday’s interesting Ricochet conference call, my son-in-law in is complaining rather often about the state’s “work from home” order. He lives in a small town in otherwise rural New Mexico. Going to his office involves walking 15 feet out of his house to get in his private car, driving 2 miles to the small building with his office, and working by himself in a private office. This going about presents a very different risk pattern from that encountered by the guy who lives in an apartment building in Manhattan, takes an elevator perhaps with other people to ground floor, walks on crowded sidewalks to a crowded subway station, gets on a crowded subway car, and walks on more crowded sidewalks to a high density office building. 

     

    • #22
    • March 25, 2020, at 11:02 AM PDT
    • 6 likes
  23. MichaelKennedy Coolidge

    Henry Racette (View Comment):

    Stad (View Comment):

    Bethany Mandel: compliance with “social distancing” orders, as tracked with cell phone data.

    Are some states or local municipalities ordering people to turn on their cell phone location services for tracking? Talk about Big Brother . . .

    Stad, location services needn’t be enabled for cell phone tracking to be performed. The cell network has to have some awareness of where any given phone is located in order to route calls effectively, and that awareness is acquired when the phones contact the local towers, which they do automatically regardless of location service settings.

    Last summer they would have had a hard time tracking me in Arizona. We hit a small rock driving in the Copper Canyon area. Went to call the AAA. Guess what ? No service, even if I walked a mile down the road. Somebody nice finally came along. He turned out to be a guy who repossesses cars and he was driving his pickup with towing gear. They towed us 15 miles to a gas station.

    • #23
    • March 25, 2020, at 4:07 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  24. Stina Member

    Henry Racette (View Comment):

    Stad (View Comment):

    Bethany Mandel: compliance with “social distancing” orders, as tracked with cell phone data.

    Are some states or local municipalities ordering people to turn on their cell phone location services for tracking? Talk about Big Brother . . .

    Stad, location services needn’t be enabled for cell phone tracking to be performed. The cell network has to have some awareness of where any given phone is located in order to route calls effectively, and that awareness is acquired when the phones contact the local towers, which they do automatically regardless of location service settings.

    I’ve been to the grocery store twice in the last 4 days… I think. Things are running together. According to cell phone data, I haven’t left my house.

    • #24
    • March 25, 2020, at 8:02 PM PDT
    • Like
  25. Blondie Thatcher

    @bethanymandel, you are correct about those in NYC and DC not having a clue. My cousin, who lives in rural south side VA, reminds me all the time how he can go weeks without going through a stoplight. They practice “social distancing” everyday. Seeing as how NYC numbers currently rival Italy’s, I don’t think they need to be calling out the rural folk. 

    • #25
    • March 26, 2020, at 4:41 AM PDT
    • Like
  26. MISTER BITCOIN Member

    MichaelKennedy (View Comment):

    Henry Racette (View Comment):

    Stad (View Comment):

    Bethany Mandel: compliance with “social distancing” orders, as tracked with cell phone data.

    Are some states or local municipalities ordering people to turn on their cell phone location services for tracking? Talk about Big Brother . . .

    Stad, location services needn’t be enabled for cell phone tracking to be performed. The cell network has to have some awareness of where any given phone is located in order to route calls effectively, and that awareness is acquired when the phones contact the local towers, which they do automatically regardless of location service settings.

    Last summer they would have had a hard time tracking me in Arizona. We hit a small rock driving in the Copper Canyon area. Went to call the AAA. Guess what ? No service, even if I walked a mile down the road. Somebody nice finally came along. He turned out to be a guy who repossesses cars and he was driving his pickup with towing gear. They towed us 15 miles to a gas station.

     

    ankle bracelets are the way to go because if someone who should stay home decides to leave the reservation, the ankle can beep and other people can see and hear the ankle bracelet and report the offender

     

    • #26
    • March 26, 2020, at 11:02 PM PDT
    • Like
  27. Skyler Coolidge

    MichaelKennedy (View Comment):

    Last summer they would have had a hard time tracking me in Arizona. We hit a small rock driving in the Copper Canyon area. Went to call the AAA. Guess what ? No service, even if I walked a mile down the road. Somebody nice finally came along. He turned out to be a guy who repossesses cars and he was driving his pickup with towing gear. They towed us 15 miles to a gas station.

     

    There are some places in this country where you have to be sure to keep food and especially water in your car.

    My daughter often refuses to wear warm clothes in Austin’s winter. I try to explain to her that she should take a coat, just in case the car breaks down. Thirteen year old girls think nothing bad enough could ever happen to inconvenience them.

    • #27
    • March 26, 2020, at 11:07 PM PDT
    • Like