Coronavirus Graphs Update: Pray for the Big Apple

 

There has been a very significant increase in reported WuFlu cases out of New York City during the last few days. I’ve been monitoring the spread of this disease carefully for a bit over a week, and this new NYC data has been the greatest cause for concern that I have observed. I had to find a new data source to address this, from Johns Hopkins (technical note in the comments).

Pray for New York. Pray for Gov. Cuomo and Mayor DeBlasio to lead the people of NYC with wisdom and resolve. Pray for President Trump, and other federal authorities, to provide them with the assistance that they may need.

NYC has 15,793 reported cases as of yesterday (March 22), up from 2,495 cases just 4 days earlier (March 18). NYC had zero reported cases prior to March 10. NYC now has almost half of the cases reported in the entire US:

The next graph shows total reported cases in the US and in NYC, since Feb. 23. This is not adjusted for population, but is the total count of reported cases. Remember that fewer than 9 million out of 330 million Americans live in NYC.

It is possible that this significant increase in reported cases in NYC is an artifact of the data, reflecting the rapid implementation of testing in a very short period. This caveat applies to all of the data that I’ve reported thus far, but perhaps the testing roll-out has been unusually recent and rapid in NYC. If true, this should become apparent in the next 4-7 days, as the rate of increase will decline. But I don’t think that we can count on that.

NYC now has the highest number of cases per capita of any major jurisdiction (and of any jurisdiction that I have seen). The number of reported cases in NYC, per million, is almost twice that of Italy. (It is possible that things are worse in the Lombardy region of Italy, and in specific Italian cities and towns, for which I do not have separate information.)

Here is the comparison of reported cases per million in NYC, Italy, and Spain, starting when each location passed 10 cases per million. I selected Italy because it has the most cases per million, and Spain because it has experienced the highest growth (among the major countries that I have been tracking).

Notice that the NYC trendline starts on Day 3, rather than Day 1. I offset the NYC trendline by two days because on Mar. 10, the first day in which it reported any cases at all, NYC was already at 20.6 cases per million. I have been starting the graphic trendline, for various countries, at 10 cases per million. Italy and all of the other countries I have analyzed were at around 20 cases per million on Day 3 (range 16.8 for the UK to 22.9 for Spain).

Of further concern, the growth curve in NYC is in the very early period, with average daily growth close to 45%. Here is the same data on cases per million, comparing NYC, Italy, and Spain in logarithmic scale. Remember that exponential growth looks like a straight line in a logarithmic graph. I have added trendlines for 45% and 20% daily exponential growth, for comparison.

This is a very important graph. You can see the trendline for Italy (blue) curving gradually down, toward the 20% daily growth line (Italy’s daily growth rate has actually under 20% for a fully 7 days). The trendline for Spain (light blue) is also trending down. But in NYC (orange), it is presently tracking the 45% daily increase line.

So NYC is in a period of exponential growth. We have seen this before, at the early stages for most countries, and the growth line has eventually bent down.

One thing to notice in the NYC trendline, in the logarithmic graph above (the last one), is the upward curve on Days 9-12. That represents daily growth well above 45%. The growth rate has declined a bit from this extraordinary level, curving down slightly on Days 13-15, but this remains a very high level.

I will continue to monitor and report on the situation.

God bless the people of the City of New York, the greatest city. Just the greatest, in the world, of all time, bar none. Fear no darkness.

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  1. WilliamDean Coolidge
    WilliamDean
    @WilliamDean

    Roderic (View Comment):

    mics there’s always a proportion of the population that doesn’t get infected. I wonder if anyone has studied them to find out how they managed that.

     

    Witchcraft, obviously. Burn ’em!

    • #31
  2. WilliamDean Coolidge
    WilliamDean
    @WilliamDean

    Steven Seward (View Comment):

    If it’s any comparison, Washington D.C. has a pretty substantial subway system with the same kinds of metal bars and plastic seats, but they have reported only 137 infections with two deaths so far. Don’t know why they would so drastically different in their infection numbers.

    Even the virus turns its nose up at the swamp critters :D .

    Or perhaps it’s just professional courtesy?

    • #32
  3. Locke On Member
    Locke On
    @LockeOn

    Under the title of ‘sustainability’ the Left has created some of the least self-sufficient and most vulnerable collections of mankind in history.  The Gods of the Copybook Headings are returning, and the reckoning may be brutal.   Joel Kotkin has an on point commentary re California.

    • #33
  4. Joseph Stanko Coolidge
    Joseph Stanko
    @JosephStanko

    Roderic (View Comment):
    In flu epidemics there’s always a proportion of the population that doesn’t get infected. I wonder if anyone has studied them to find out how they managed that.

    One reason is “herd immunity,” the fact that some percentage of the population has either already had a similar strain of flu in a prior season or got immunity from a flu shot.  That’s a major factor that slows and eventually stops the spread of the seasonal flu.

    That’s one reason this pandemic is spreading so fast, b/c it’s novel so at least as far as we know no one is immune.

    • #34
  5. Kozak Member
    Kozak
    @Kozak

    Pray for all of us.  We need it.

    • #35
  6. Kozak Member
    Kozak
    @Kozak

    FYI guys for data on “confirmed cases”.

    NC just issued new testing guidelines.

    • Changes in testing recommendations: People with mild symptoms consistent with COVID-19 do NOT need testing and should be instructed to stay at home to recover. Mild symptoms defined as fever and cough without any of the following: shortness of breath, difficulty breathing, chest discomfort, altered thinking, cyanosis

    I’m betting lots of states that are approaching the “boom” stage ( case, case, cluster, cluster BOOM) and will also change their testing recommendations.

    So. Unless you are sick enough to require hospitalization, you won’t get counted in active cases.   This is going to affect the stats going forward.

    • #36
  7. Darin Johnson Member
    Darin Johnson
    @user_648569

    I mean… it’s just testing.  Shouldn’t that be our strong prior?

    • #37
  8. Scott R Member
    Scott R
    @ScottR

    Kozak (View Comment):

    FYI guys for data on “confirmed cases”.

    NC just issued new testing guidelines.

    • Changes in testing recommendations: People with mild symptoms consistent with COVID-19 do NOT need testing and should be instructed to stay at home to recover. Mild symptoms defined as fever and cough without any of the following: shortness of breath, difficulty breathing, chest discomfort, altered thinking, cyanosis

    I’m betting lots of states that are approaching the “boom” stage ( case, case, cluster, cluster BOOM) and will also change their testing recommendations.

    So. Unless you are sick enough to require hospitalization, you won’t get counted in active cases. This is going to affect the stats going forward.

    It’ll absolutely affect the numbers (and possibly contribute to some false optimism) but perhaps not dramatically. Last I saw tests had a 10-30% positive rate, so presumably they anticipate those untested milder cases would overwhelmingly have come up negative anyway — well more than 90% surely. If so, the effect on total cases won’t be huge. 

    If we start getting significant decline, hope, and then reduce that hope by 10%. That should put us in the ballpark of warranted optimism. (everything is math these days…)

    • #38
  9. Scott R Member
    Scott R
    @ScottR

    According to Cuomo this eve, NY now has the highest testing per capital in the world. That’s good news since it suggests some portion of the spiraling numbers represent a spiraling testing capacity — especially important to keep in mind as we use the numbers of less-aggressively testing countries to judge our trends.

    Which is not to say the situation isn’t aweful.

    • #39
  10. Saint Augustine Member
    Saint Augustine
    @SaintAugustine

    Scott R (View Comment):

    According to Cuomo this eve, NY now has the highest testing per capital in the world. That’s good news since it suggests some portion of the spiraling numbers represent a spiraling testing capacity — especially important to keep in mind as we use the numbers of less-aggressively testing countries to judge our trends.

    Which is not to say the situation isn’t aweful.

    The path to South Korea, which looked like the worst in the world for a while.

    Now it just slowly increases its numbers while country after country jumps past it in the infected count.

    Shapiro is right: South Korea is the way to go.

    I’m also a fan of Hong Kong.

    But watch them numbers from the places that had it early and look like they have the transmission within manageable parameters.  Watch South Korea, Macao, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, Taiwan.  Pray the numbers fall and not rise.

    • #40
  11. Steven Seward Member
    Steven Seward
    @StevenSeward

    Scott R (View Comment):

    It’ll absolutely affect the numbers (and possibly contribute to some false optimism) but perhaps not dramatically. Last I saw tests had a 10-30% positive rate, so presumably they anticipate those untested milder cases would overwhelmingly have come up negative anyway — well more than 90% surely. If so, the effect on total cases won’t be huge.

    If we start getting significant decline, hope, and then reduce that hope by 10%. That should put us in the ballpark of warranted optimism. (everything is math these days…)

    For a 10-30% positive rate you might have been looking at this website, but it is extremely misleading.  They get the positive test result numbers right, but for some reason the negative tests are being greatly unreported or lagging.  I know because my wife is doing Corona testing at a major hospital in Cleveland and their positive rate is coming up at 5%.  It is not significantly different than the figures of 4%-5% that I heard for the rest of the country.  This is of course the rate for people who have Corona-like symptoms and have been referred by a doctor, not random people off the streets.

    • #41
  12. Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… Coolidge
    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo…
    @GumbyMark

    Saint Augustine (View Comment):

    Scott R (View Comment):

    According to Cuomo this eve, NY now has the highest testing per capital in the world. That’s good news since it suggests some portion of the spiraling numbers represent a spiraling testing capacity — especially important to keep in mind as we use the numbers of less-aggressively testing countries to judge our trends.

    Which is not to say the situation isn’t aweful.

    The path to South Korea, which looked like the worst in the world for a while.

    Now it just slowly increases its numbers while country after country jumps past it in the infected count.

    Shapiro is right: South Korea is the way to go.

    I’m also a fan of Hong Kong.

    But watch them numbers from the places that had it early and look like they have the transmission within manageable parameters. Watch South Korea, Macao, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, Taiwan. Pray the numbers fall and not rise.

    South Korea was the way to go.  We can’t do that now.

    I understand Hong Kong and Singapore have reinstated travel restrictions (travelers coming in) because of recent uptick in cases.  Is that accurate?  Japan and Taiwan remain pretty stable in case count.

    • #42
  13. Steven Seward Member
    Steven Seward
    @StevenSeward

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    South Korea was the way to go. We can’t do that now.

    Why not?

    • #43
  14. Locke On Member
    Locke On
    @LockeOn

    Steven Seward (View Comment):

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    South Korea was the way to go. We can’t do that now.

    Why not?

    Korean outbreak was centered on one metro area, and they mostly contained it there before community spread started in other areas.  We’re past that stage with community spread widely distributed.  

    • #44
  15. Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… Coolidge
    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo…
    @GumbyMark

    Steven Seward (View Comment):

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    South Korea was the way to go. We can’t do that now.

    Why not?

    Initial concentration in one city.  Quick government response and widespread testing allowed for identifying, tracking and containing identified cases.  They were able to avoid widespread shutdown because of it.  Our cases are too many (probably 5-20X current official #), and too geographically dispersed.  It would still have been difficult, but at least possible, to control if we’d been able to implement Korea approach in first half of February.

    • #45
  16. Saint Augustine Member
    Saint Augustine
    @SaintAugustine

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    Saint Augustine (View Comment):

    Scott R (View Comment):

    According to Cuomo this eve, NY now has the highest testing per capital in the world. That’s good news since it suggests some portion of the spiraling numbers represent a spiraling testing capacity — especially important to keep in mind as we use the numbers of less-aggressively testing countries to judge our trends.

    Which is not to say the situation isn’t aweful.

    The path to South Korea, which looked like the worst in the world for a while.

    Now it just slowly increases its numbers while country after country jumps past it in the infected count.

    Shapiro is right: South Korea is the way to go.

    I’m also a fan of Hong Kong.

    But watch them numbers from the places that had it early and look like they have the transmission within manageable parameters. Watch South Korea, Macao, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, Taiwan. Pray the numbers fall and not rise.

    South Korea was the way to go. We can’t do that now.

    Why is that?  Edit: Aha! There’s a good answer in the previous comment!

    I understand Hong Kong and Singapore have reinstated travel restrictions (travelers coming in) because of recent uptick in cases. Is that accurate? Japan and Taiwan remain pretty stable in case count.

    I believe so, in both cases.

    • #46
  17. Steven Seward Member
    Steven Seward
    @StevenSeward

    Locke On (View Comment):

    Steven Seward (View Comment):

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    South Korea was the way to go. We can’t do that now.

    Why not?

    Korean outbreak was centered on one metro area, and they mostly contained it there before community spread started in other areas. We’re past that stage with community spread widely distributed.

    Ours also is centered mainly in one metro area, New York.  There was another concentration in Washington, and all states have at least a couple dozen cases, but it really hasn’t spread that much to overwhelm the rest of the country.   Even when you include all the ramped up cases in New York, the U.S. still has a lower infection rate than South Korea has.  Outside of Metro New York it is less than half of the Korean rate.

    In my State of Ohio, 7th largest in U.S., we have about 50 infected people for every million residents.  It would not be hard at all to isolate them, and that is exactly what is going on.  If that were 500 per million it still would not be very hard to isolate them.  That part is no different than South Korea.

    • #47
  18. Hammer, The Inactive
    Hammer, The
    @RyanM

    Kozak (View Comment):

    FYI guys for data on “confirmed cases”.

    NC just issued new testing guidelines.

    • Changes in testing recommendations: People with mild symptoms consistent with COVID-19 do NOT need testing and should be instructed to stay at home to recover. Mild symptoms defined as fever and cough without any of the following: shortness of breath, difficulty breathing, chest discomfort, altered thinking, cyanosis

    I’m betting lots of states that are approaching the “boom” stage ( case, case, cluster, cluster BOOM) and will also change their testing recommendations.

    So. Unless you are sick enough to require hospitalization, you won’t get counted in active cases. This is going to affect the stats going forward.

    Don’t take for granted that all states will experience that same progression. WA has had this virus longer than New York.  Dense urban areas are, in all countries, having more “boom” than elsewhere. It’s not a guarantee.

    • #48
  19. Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… Coolidge
    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo…
    @GumbyMark

    Steven Seward (View Comment):

    Locke On (View Comment):

    Steven Seward (View Comment):

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    South Korea was the way to go. We can’t do that now.

    Why not?

    Korean outbreak was centered on one metro area, and they mostly contained it there before community spread started in other areas. We’re past that stage with community spread widely distributed.

    Ours also is centered mainly in one metro area, New York. There was another concentration in Washington, and all states have at least a couple dozen cases, but it really hasn’t spread that much to overwhelm the rest of the country. Even when you include all the ramped up cases in New York, the U.S. still has a lower infection rate than South Korea has. Outside of Metro New York it is less than half of the Korean rate.

    In my State of Ohio, 7th largest in U.S., we have about 50 infected people for every million residents. It would not be hard at all to isolate them, and that is exactly what is going on. If that were 500 per million it still would not be very hard to isolate them. That part is no different than South Korea.

    Then Ohio should do that.  One problem in all of this is that New York has also done the most extensive testing so we have no clue as to whether case counts in the other states represent reality and how easy or tough the task would be.  That’s what we lost by not being able to test at entry points into the country and at the initial hotspots back in February.  We are operating in a field of uncertainty – for instance, Arizona, where I live, has an official count of 326, but I doubt anyone knowledgeable thinks that is anywhere near the real number.

    • #49
  20. Clifford A. Brown Member
    Clifford A. Brown
    @CliffordBrown

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    GrannyDude (View Comment):

    Oh Lord. If Jerry thinks NYC is in trouble….

    I don’t think that they’re in trouble yet. It is a troubling report, and warrants both close monitoring and prayer.

    If I had to bet, I’d bet that NYC is between 10 and 100 times more capable of responding to a problem like this than Italy. New Yorkers in particular, and Americans in general, tend to be far more competent than just about anyone else. The Germans and Japanese and South Koreans are pretty awesome, too, but we tend to be the very best.

    Yes, and the Army is deploying large hospital units, two to New York and one to the Seattle area. We have far more resources to provide advanced life support than does any other country. 

    • #50
  21. Steven Seward Member
    Steven Seward
    @StevenSeward

    Clifford A. Brown (View Comment):

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    GrannyDude (View Comment):

    Oh Lord. If Jerry thinks NYC is in trouble….

    I don’t think that they’re in trouble yet. It is a troubling report, and warrants both close monitoring and prayer.

    If I had to bet, I’d bet that NYC is between 10 and 100 times more capable of responding to a problem like this than Italy. New Yorkers in particular, and Americans in general, tend to be far more competent than just about anyone else. The Germans and Japanese and South Koreans are pretty awesome, too, but we tend to be the very best.

    Yes, and the Army is deploying large hospital units, two to New York and one to the Seattle area. We have far more resources to provide advanced life support than does any other country.

    It’s nice to hear the positive side amongst the din of doomsday diviners.

    • #51
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