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There has been a very significant increase in reported WuFlu cases out of New York City during the last few days. I’ve been monitoring the spread of this disease carefully for a bit over a week, and this new NYC data has been the greatest cause for concern that I have observed. I had to find a new data source to address this, from Johns Hopkins (technical note in the comments).
Pray for New York. Pray for Gov. Cuomo and Mayor DeBlasio to lead the people of NYC with wisdom and resolve. Pray for President Trump, and other federal authorities, to provide them with the assistance that they may need.
NYC has 15,793 reported cases as of yesterday (March 22), up from 2,495 cases just 4 days earlier (March 18). NYC had zero reported cases prior to March 10. NYC now has almost half of the cases reported in the entire US:
The next graph shows total reported cases in the US and in NYC, since Feb. 23. This is not adjusted for population, but is the total count of reported cases. Remember that fewer than 9 million out of 330 million Americans live in NYC.
It is possible that this significant increase in reported cases in NYC is an artifact of the data, reflecting the rapid implementation of testing in a very short period. This caveat applies to all of the data that I’ve reported thus far, but perhaps the testing roll-out has been unusually recent and rapid in NYC. If true, this should become apparent in the next 4-7 days, as the rate of increase will decline. But I don’t think that we can count on that.
NYC now has the highest number of cases per capita of any major jurisdiction (and of any jurisdiction that I have seen). The number of reported cases in NYC, per million, is almost twice that of Italy. (It is possible that things are worse in the Lombardy region of Italy, and in specific Italian cities and towns, for which I do not have separate information.)
Here is the comparison of reported cases per million in NYC, Italy, and Spain, starting when each location passed 10 cases per million. I selected Italy because it has the most cases per million, and Spain because it has experienced the highest growth (among the major countries that I have been tracking).
Notice that the NYC trendline starts on Day 3, rather than Day 1. I offset the NYC trendline by two days because on Mar. 10, the first day in which it reported any cases at all, NYC was already at 20.6 cases per million. I have been starting the graphic trendline, for various countries, at 10 cases per million. Italy and all of the other countries I have analyzed were at around 20 cases per million on Day 3 (range 16.8 for the UK to 22.9 for Spain).
Of further concern, the growth curve in NYC is in the very early period, with average daily growth close to 45%. Here is the same data on cases per million, comparing NYC, Italy, and Spain in logarithmic scale. Remember that exponential growth looks like a straight line in a logarithmic graph. I have added trendlines for 45% and 20% daily exponential growth, for comparison.
This is a very important graph. You can see the trendline for Italy (blue) curving gradually down, toward the 20% daily growth line (Italy’s daily growth rate has actually under 20% for a fully 7 days). The trendline for Spain (light blue) is also trending down. But in NYC (orange), it is presently tracking the 45% daily increase line.
So NYC is in a period of exponential growth. We have seen this before, at the early stages for most countries, and the growth line has eventually bent down.
One thing to notice in the NYC trendline, in the logarithmic graph above (the last one), is the upward curve on Days 9-12. That represents daily growth well above 45%. The growth rate has declined a bit from this extraordinary level, curving down slightly on Days 13-15, but this remains a very high level.
I will continue to monitor and report on the situation.
God bless the people of the City of New York, the greatest city. Just the greatest, in the world, of all time, bar none. Fear no darkness.Published in