Day 63: COVID-19 “Shelter-in-Place”

 

[Transcript of unrecorded video broadcast from Rodin on March 23, 2020]

OK, it looks like we’re there. [Scrolls to the paragraph above Worldometer.com table] 194 countries and territories reporting the virus, so I think we have pretty much run out of independent jurisdictions free of the virus.

Good morning, everyone. There is the screengrab for what it’s worth. The USA has nearly 40,000 active cases. New York is the epicenter. Cases are growing elsewhere in the country, of course, but nowhere near what’s happening in New York. A quick look at the state table:

Still waiting for updated Washington state data, but they had 200 additional cases yesterday. Remember they had the first big cluster, followed by California. It took a while for New York to get in the game, but they are really in it now. Of the jurisdictions, it looks like they are the one most in danger of going out of control. The New Jersey numbers seem to be driven by proximity to New York City.

State “lockdowns” “sheltering-in-place” “stay at homes” whatever you want to label it is becoming quite popular at the moment. Even places with less than 1,000 cases are getting into that game. The Johns Hopkins world map is offering finer detail now on the places in the US where the virus is spreading:

Shifting our view back to the world for a moment: Ricochet is one of the best sources for following the epidemic from your home or bunker. Lots of debate over how serious things are, whether the cure is worse than the disease. Even arguments over math.

There appear to be lessons on how to do this without killing your economy. Not clear whether we are going to do that because Democrats prefer to rule over an ash heap than occupy a lesser office in a happy and prosperous nation.

What am I looking at on Ricochet? Well, just about everything. If I log off then I have to work on the honey-do list. Oops, I think she heard that.

So, I am going to have to ring off for the day. Stay safe, eat take out so that at least some restaurant workers have a job, practice social distancing and wash your hands.

[Note: Links to all my COVID-19 posts can be found here.]

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  1. EHerring Coolidge
    EHerring
    @EHerring

    As I have learned about the different items of pork and Fascistic dreams the Dems have tried to cram through in the bill, I have decided the virus can’t be this bad if they are more worried about voting, min wage, diversity, etc. Tonight I am ready to say screw it all, pull back on all the restrictions, get back to normal, let the economy recover itself, give the money to health care and emergency personnel, tell people to wash their hands, and treat the unfortunate 1%. 

    At this point, the Democrats are a bigger threat to this country than the virus. 

    • #31
  2. Saint Augustine Member
    Saint Augustine
    @SaintAugustine

    EHerring (View Comment):

    At this point, the Democrats are a bigger threat to this country than the virus. 

    Same old, same old.

    • #32
  3. Jules PA Inactive
    Jules PA
    @JulesPA

    namlliT noD (View Comment):

    Rodin: It took a while for New York to get in the game, but they are really in it now.

    I think I know why…

    New York City has a population of a little under 8.5 million people. But the population literally doubles during the day, because so many, many people live in the suburbs and commute into The City for work. From Long Island, from New Jersey, from Westchester, from Connecticut, and between the boroughs.

    And they mostly commute in and out with mass transit; commuter train, subway, buses, taxis.

    This is the opposite of social distancing.

    Here’s an animated map, from the Manhattan Population Explorer:

    Added:

    And these are lengthy commutes, around 45 minutes or so. As a point of comparison, though I grew up on Long Island, I’ve been living in Silicon Valley for a long time. And I can bike to work. Though I’m telecommuting right now.

    I’m guessing some sort of “commute factor” plays a big role. Something involving the percentage of people who commute to work, the time it takes, the distance they travel, the density of the train, etc.

    And the viability of the virus, on the transit car, both in air, and on surfaces. 

    • #33
  4. Steven Seward Member
    Steven Seward
    @StevenSeward

    Majority Rule abridges Free Sp… (View Comment):

    Steven Seward (View Comment):

    Majority Rule abridges Free Sp… (View Comment):

    Here is an idea for the community of Ricochet, let’s apply for a Federal grant to do a social study of this event and answer namlliT noD hypothesis. I’d say 25 million dollars should get the study moving forward. Hey why not us? We have tech writers, editors, college wrestling throwing dummies, pilots, statisticians, IT professionals and clowns, … any Chinese – Jewish Chinese – submariners from the USS Codfish, (humor via Rickels and Newhart, and clown movie).

    Love your idea! But I want to know “What are college wrestling throwing dummies, and who on Ricochet is one?”

    They are H.S wrestler’s who are dumb for thinking they are good enough to make it on a wrestling program way above their pay grade. We end up saving the program the cost of the leather stuffed throwing dummy in the mat room. When I got there I saw straw protruding from the shoulders and the stitching coming loose. I did not figure it out until after 3 knee and two shoulder surgeries. However, I had so much air time they gave me an honorary pilots license. Seward have you ever been to Moscow Russia?

    Never been to Moscow, but I’ve been to New Russia, Ohio where my nephew and his family live, right in the heart of liberal Oberlin, Ohio (though he’s a good right-winger).  I was also a high-school wrassler.  Learned a lot about punishment and extreme exhaustion.

    • #34
  5. Steven Seward Member
    Steven Seward
    @StevenSeward

    Jules PA (View Comment):

    And the viability of the virus, on the transit car, both in air, and on surfaces.

    I read something that contradicts all the conventional wisdom about airborne transmission of this virus. 

    The World Health Organization sent a team of scientists to Wuhan China to study the outbreak in February.  One of their major findings was this:

    Routes of transmission

    “COVID-19 is transmitted via droplets and fomites during close unprotected contact between an infector and infectee. Airborne spread has not been reported for COVID-19 and it is not believed to be a major driver of transmission based on available evidence; however, it can be envisaged if certain aerosol-generating procedures are conducted in health care facilities.”

    (Bold face by me)

    Has this finding been reversed since the report came out?

    • #35
  6. Gromrus Member
    Gromrus
    @Gromrus

    Any idea why Switzerland’s rate per million population is twice that of Austria, despite both countries sharing most of the northern border of Italy?

    • #36
  7. Rodin Member
    Rodin
    @Rodin

    Gromrus (View Comment):

    Any idea why Switzerland’s rate per million population is twice that of Austria, despite both countries sharing most of the northern border of Italy?

    That’s a very good question. I took a quick internet search to see if this had been discussed and did not readily come up with an answer. There are a number of variables: what is the level of trade between Switzerland versus Austria and Italy’s hot spots? what actions did Austria take that Switzerland did not? are there differences in the demographics of the affected areas of Switzerland with that of Austria that might explain it? etc.

    • #37
  8. EHerring Coolidge
    EHerring
    @EHerring

    There are some pretty rugged Alps between the two….think Matterhorn. Zermatt on one side and some Italian one whose name I have forgotten on the other side. Smokers? Immigration control.

    • #38
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