Recommended by Ricochet Members Created with Sketch. Day 63: COVID-19 “Shelter-in-Place”

 

[Transcript of unrecorded video broadcast from Rodin on March 23, 2020]

OK, it looks like we’re there. [Scrolls to the paragraph above Worldometer.com table] 194 countries and territories reporting the virus, so I think we have pretty much run out of independent jurisdictions free of the virus.

Good morning, everyone. There is the screengrab for what it’s worth. The USA has nearly 40,000 active cases. New York is the epicenter. Cases are growing elsewhere in the country, of course, but nowhere near what’s happening in New York. A quick look at the state table:

Still waiting for updated Washington state data, but they had 200 additional cases yesterday. Remember they had the first big cluster, followed by California. It took a while for New York to get in the game, but they are really in it now. Of the jurisdictions, it looks like they are the one most in danger of going out of control. The New Jersey numbers seem to be driven by proximity to New York City.

State “lockdowns” “sheltering-in-place” “stay at homes” whatever you want to label it is becoming quite popular at the moment. Even places with less than 1,000 cases are getting into that game. The Johns Hopkins world map is offering finer detail now on the places in the US where the virus is spreading:

Shifting our view back to the world for a moment: Ricochet is one of the best sources for following the epidemic from your home or bunker. Lots of debate over how serious things are, whether the cure is worse than the disease. Even arguments over math.

There appear to be lessons on how to do this without killing your economy. Not clear whether we are going to do that because Democrats prefer to rule over an ash heap than occupy a lesser office in a happy and prosperous nation.

What am I looking at on Ricochet? Well, just about everything. If I log off then I have to work on the honey-do list. Oops, I think she heard that.

So, I am going to have to ring off for the day. Stay safe, eat take out so that at least some restaurant workers have a job, practice social distancing and wash your hands.

[Note: Links to all my COVID-19 posts can be found here.]

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  1. The Other Diane Coolidge
    The Other DianeJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Thanks as always for giving us a quick, clear daily overview, Rodin! The NY numbers as a percentage of the US total are frightening.

    We’ve been trying to eat at home this week as part of our self-imposed shelter at home strategy, and have very quickly realized how spoiled we’ve become as (mostly) empty nesters who really like to eat out. Do you think takeout from local restaraunts is OK even if some restaurant workers might be asymptomatic carriers?

    • #1
    • March 23, 2020, at 10:18 AM PDT
    • 3 likes
  2. Rodin Member
    Rodin

    The Other Diane (View Comment):

    Thanks as always for giving us a quick, clear daily overview, Rodin! The NY numbers as a percentage of the US total are frightening.

    We’ve been trying to eat at home this week as part of our self-imposed shelter at home strategy, and have very quickly realized how spoiled we’ve become as (mostly) empty nesters who really like to eat out. Do you think takeout from local restaraunts is OK even if some restaurant workers might be asymptomatic carriers?

    Personally I think the risk is low, but obviously whether that is true or not is dependent on the prevalence of the disease in your area. If you order hot meals then the likelihood is any “hitchhikers” are on the packaging. I have seen two recommendations: (1) spray the package surface with disinfectant, or (2) wash your hands after handling the packaging. Generally you should be good to go.

    • #2
    • March 23, 2020, at 10:25 AM PDT
    • 1 like
  3. Unsk Member

    One of the theories out there of why New York is getting so many cases is that they were more exposed to Europe than other parts of the country. I don’t know how valid that theory is but if it has any validity at all Trump’s cessation of flights from Europe may have helped us a lot. 

    It’s also true that our youngens are not self quarantining very well. Florida has been hit hard by all the Easter Break partiers and I have heard of others here in LA seeking out parks beaches etc despite the stay at home lock down. I live close to Lake Hollywood which many like to walk around on days off and it was very busy yesterday despite the lockdown. 

    • #3
    • March 23, 2020, at 10:42 AM PDT
    • 2 likes
  4. EODmom Coolidge

    Unsk (View Comment):

    One of the theories out there of why New York is getting so many cases is that they were more exposed to Europe than other parts of the country. I don’t know how valid that theory is but if it has any validity at all Trump’s cessation of flights from Europe may have helped us a lot.

    It’s also true that our youngens are not self quarantining very well. Florida has been hit hard by all the Easter Break partiers and I have heard of others here in LA seeking out parks beaches etc despite the stay at home lock down. I live close to Lake Hollywood which many like to walk around on days off and it was very busy yesterday despite the lockdown.

    NYC has large Chinese population which is very mobile. Same as Italy. Also large frequent Italian visitor and resident population. Also mediocre city managed health care systems. Thank you Mayor DeBlasio. Very much like Italian systems. 

    • #4
    • March 23, 2020, at 10:51 AM PDT
    • 4 likes
  5. Brandon Member

    Any updates as to whether or not the Dutch “herd immunity” approach is working?

    • #5
    • March 23, 2020, at 11:43 AM PDT
    • 2 likes
  6. Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… Thatcher

    Things may be happening in Hong Kong where the data quality is good and the situation stable in terms of cases until recently. About 60% of its cases have occurred within the past 7 days.

    • #6
    • March 23, 2020, at 11:53 AM PDT
    • 3 likes
  7. MISTER BITCOIN Member

    The Other Diane (View Comment):

    Thanks as always for giving us a quick, clear daily overview, Rodin! The NY numbers as a percentage of the US total are frightening.

    We’ve been trying to eat at home this week as part of our self-imposed shelter at home strategy, and have very quickly realized how spoiled we’ve become as (mostly) empty nesters who really like to eat out. Do you think takeout from local restaraunts is OK even if some restaurant workers might be asymptomatic carriers?

    New York and New Jersey are over regulated and most hostile to private enterprise.

     

    • #7
    • March 23, 2020, at 1:03 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  8. MISTER BITCOIN Member

    Rodin (View Comment):

    The Other Diane (View Comment):

    Thanks as always for giving us a quick, clear daily overview, Rodin! The NY numbers as a percentage of the US total are frightening.

    We’ve been trying to eat at home this week as part of our self-imposed shelter at home strategy, and have very quickly realized how spoiled we’ve become as (mostly) empty nesters who really like to eat out. Do you think takeout from local restaraunts is OK even if some restaurant workers might be asymptomatic carriers?

    Personally I think the risk is low, but obviously whether that is true or not is dependent on the prevalence of the disease in your area. If you order hot meals then the likelihood is any “hitchhikers” are on the packaging. I have seen two recommendations: (1) spray the package surface with disinfectant, or (2) wash your hands after handling the packaging. Generally you should be good to go.

    I would guess hot is better than ‘fresh’?

     

     

    • #8
    • March 23, 2020, at 1:05 PM PDT
    • 2 likes
  9. MarciN Member

    This is quite a story and makes me wonder about the current mix of virulent flu and other viruses making the rounds this past fall and winter. It will take supercomputers to sort out the epidemiology of the this year’s infections. I hope we are preserving test tubes of patients’ blood to study over the next few years. We’ll need some blood samples from deceased people and from people who appear to us to be free of disease this year. 

    • #9
    • March 23, 2020, at 1:35 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  10. namlliT noD Member
    namlliT noDJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Rodin: It took a while for New York to get in the game, but they are really in it now.

    I think I know why…

    New York City has a population of a little under 8.5 million people. But the population literally doubles during the day, because so many, many people live in the suburbs and commute into The City for work. From Long Island, from New Jersey, from Westchester, from Connecticut, and between the boroughs.

    And they mostly commute in and out with mass transit; commuter train, subway, buses, taxis.

    This is the opposite of social distancing.

    Here’s an animated map, from the Manhattan Population Explorer:

    Added:

    And these are lengthy commutes, around 45 minutes or so. As a point of comparison, though I grew up on Long Island, I’ve been living in Silicon Valley for a long time. And I can bike to work. Though I’m telecommuting right now.

    I’m guessing some sort of “commute factor” plays a big role. Something involving the percentage of people who commute to work, the time it takes, the distance they travel, the density of the train, etc.

    • #10
    • March 23, 2020, at 1:41 PM PDT
    • 8 likes
    • This comment has been edited.
  11. Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… Thatcher

    namlliT noD (View Comment):

    Rodin: It took a while for New York to get in the game, but they are really in it now.

    I think I know why…

    New York City has a population of a little under 8.5 million people. But the population literally doubles during the day, because so many, many people live in the suburbs and commute into The City for work. From Long Island, from New Jersey, from Westchester, from Connecticut, and between the boroughs.

    And they mostly commute in and out with mass transit; commuter train, subway, buses, taxis.

    This is the opposite of social distancing.

    Here’s an animated map, from the Manhattan Population Explorer:

    Yes, and the first big case was of a lawyer who worked adjacent to Grand Central Terminal, commuting every day from the suburb of New Rochelle. It is believed he got infected while in the city and then ended up starting a huge chain of infection in New Rochelle.

    • #11
    • March 23, 2020, at 1:45 PM PDT
    • 8 likes
  12. Phil Turmel Coolidge

    namlliT noD (View Comment):
    Here’s an animated map, from the Manhattan Population Explorer:

    That is a really cool map.

    • #12
    • March 23, 2020, at 2:23 PM PDT
    • 6 likes
  13. CarolJoy, Thread Hijacker Coolidge

    South Korea is the only nation so far that has been doing a reliable report on the numbers. They are testing exponentially higher numbers of people than are being tested in other places, including here in the US.

    Their data shows something like 0.06% mortality rate from COVID 19, a far cry under the 3 % plus mortality rate spouted by the ignoramus of a WHO official, and whose announcement set this debacle off.

    Unfortunately for everyone on the planet, few journalists bothered to double check the official’s math, or to ask if his math relied on decent testing methods, decent data gathering or decent results.

    So here we are.

    From what several clinic personnel have revealed, in most clinics in the US, the tests are only done on people who confirm they have had a dry cough that has lasted more than 7 days. So already, the data collection method is flawed, since to get a test, the individual must be someone who for whatever reason, cannot shake the flu. The tests then being done are being done on only rather sick people, so a much higher mortality rate can be expected. (More affluent Ricochet members might get the test done without this 7 day parameter being met, as they usually are likely to have a real relationship with their doctors, unlike the 8 to 10 min relationship the rest of us have.)

    I am not trying to suggest that the COVID 19 doesn’t exist, or that everyone survives. Even before COVID became publicized, some health experts were warning of a serious flu season. The majority of people who are getting sick right now are experiencing a non-COVID variety of flu. Nothing to sneeze about: the nation loses tens of thousands of people each year to one variety of the flu or another.

    • #13
    • March 23, 2020, at 2:30 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
    • This comment has been edited.
  14. Kozak Member
    KozakJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Unsk (View Comment):
    One of the theories out there of why New York is getting so many cases is that they were more exposed to Europe than other parts of the country. I don’t know how valid that theory is but if it has any validity at all Trump’s cessation of flights from Europe may have helped us a lot. 

    It didn’t help that Trump shut down flights from Iran, and a Federal judge over ruled him. And one of the early clusters in NY was traced to….. Iran.

    • #14
    • March 23, 2020, at 2:50 PM PDT
    • 8 likes
  15. EODmom Coolidge

    CarolJoy, Above Top Secret (View Comment):

    South Korea is the only nation so far that has been doing a reliable report on the numbers. They are testing exponentially higher numbers of people than are being tested in other places, including here in the US.

    Their data shows something like 0.06% mortality rate from COVID 19, a far cry under the 3 % plus mortality rate spouted by the ignoramus of a WHO official, and whose announcement set this debacle off.

    Unfortunately for everyone on the planet, few journalists bothered to double check the official’s math, or to ask if his math relied on decent testing methods, decent data gathering or decent results.

    So here we are.

    From what several clinic personnel have revealed, in most clinics in the US, the tests are only done on people who confirm they have had a dry cough that has lasted more than 7 days. So already, the data collection method is flawed, since to get a test, the individual must be someone who for whatever reason, cannot shake the flu. The tests then being done are being done on only rather sick people, so a much higher mortality rate can be expected. (More affluent Ricochet members might get the test done without this 7 day parameter being met, as they usually are likely to have a real relationship with their doctors, unlike the 8 to 10 min relationship the rest of us have.)

    I am not trying to suggest that the COVID 19 doesn’t exist, or that everyone survives. Even before COVID became publicized, some health experts were warning of a serious flu season. The majority of people who are getting sick right now are experiencing a non-COVID variety of flu. Nothing to sneeze about: the nation loses tens of thousands of people each year to one variety of the flu or another.

    Exactly! If you test 1 person, who reported themselves as ill enough to seek care, and that test is positive, and that person dies you have a 100% mortality rate. 

    • #15
    • March 23, 2020, at 2:50 PM PDT
    • 1 like
  16. Kozak Member
    KozakJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    M. Brandon Godbey (View Comment):

    Any updates as to whether or not the Dutch “herd immunity” approach is working?

    You need to have 60 to 80 percent of the population infected before herd immunity will be effective in an infection that is this communicable…

     

     

    • #16
    • March 23, 2020, at 2:52 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
  17. WilliamDean Coolidge

    Unsk (View Comment):

    One of the theories out there of why New York is getting so many cases is that they were more exposed to Europe than other parts of the country. I don’t know how valid that theory is but if it has any validity at all Trump’s cessation of flights from Europe may have helped us a lot.

    It’s also true that our youngens are not self quarantining very well. Florida has been hit hard by all the Easter Break partiers and I have heard of others here in LA seeking out parks beaches etc despite the stay at home lock down. I live close to Lake Hollywood which many like to walk around on days off and it was very busy yesterday despite the lockdown.

    New York is doing the bulk of the testing in response to their initial climb as well. That could account for much of the current distribution numbers as well.

    • #17
    • March 23, 2020, at 2:53 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  18. Kozak Member
    KozakJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    CarolJoy, Above Top Secret (View Comment):
    Their data shows something like 0.06% mortality rate from COVID 19, a far cry under the 3 % plus mortality rate spouted by the ignoramus of a WHO official, and whose announcement set this debacle off.

    Where are you pulling this number out of?

    • #18
    • March 23, 2020, at 2:59 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
  19. namlliT noD Member
    namlliT noDJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Phil Turmel (View Comment):

    namlliT noD (View Comment):
    Here’s an animated map, from the Manhattan Population Explorer:

    That is a really cool map.

    Yeah, it’s pretty impressive.

    I can picture @roblong bouncing up and down in, where… the lower left?

    • #19
    • March 23, 2020, at 3:02 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  20. Saint Augustine Member

    Rodin:

    OK, it looks like we’re there. [Scrolls to the paragraph above Worldometer.com table] 194 countries and territories reporting the virus, so I think we have pretty much run out of independent jurisdictions free of the virus.

    Surely you jest. There is no coronavirus in North Korea!

    • #20
    • March 23, 2020, at 3:18 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
  21. Unsk Member

    William Dean:”New York is doing the bulk of the testing in response to their initial climb as well. That could account for much of the current distribution numbers as well.”

    That high amount of testing may account why the death rate is only 0.75% rather than the world wide average of 4.2%.

    • #21
    • March 23, 2020, at 3:24 PM PDT
    • 2 likes
  22. Majority Rule abridges Free Sp… Coolidge

    Where can I go to view the entire chart of countries please? 

     

    • #22
    • March 23, 2020, at 3:42 PM PDT
    • 2 likes
  23. Rodin Member
    Rodin

    Majority Rule abridges Free Sp… (View Comment):

    Where can I go to view the entire chart of countries please?

     

    @majorityruleabridgesspeech: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/.

     

    • #23
    • March 23, 2020, at 3:44 PM PDT
    • 1 like
  24. Steven Seward Member

    Kozak (View Comment):

    CarolJoy, Above Top Secret (View Comment):
    Their data shows something like 0.06% mortality rate from COVID 19, a far cry under the 3 % plus mortality rate spouted by the ignoramus of a WHO official, and whose announcement set this debacle off.

    Where are you pulling this number out of?

    I’m not sure about that 3.4% death rate either. To be honest, I never did understand that graph on the Worldometers site. If you go to the point on the graph that lies above March 2nd and 3rd, you will get a death rate of 48%!!

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

    If I just take their total number of deaths (111) and divide it by their total number of infected cases (8,961) as of today, I come up with a death rate of .012 or 1.2%. 

    • #24
    • March 23, 2020, at 4:03 PM PDT
    • 2 likes
  25. Unsk Member

    Just another exercise…

    The New York death rate is 0.75% which many believe is that low because they have done a lot of testing.

    If one assumes that 0.75% is the long term death rate, then based upon known deaths working backwards the other major infected states, other than Washington which had a problem with nursing homes to skew their number of deaths, one gets the following chart:

    State——————————-Deaths————known cases——–Estimated cases based on 0.75% deaths

    California————————–35——————1802———————-4666

    New Jersey————————-27——————2844———————-3600

    Michigan—————————-15——————1232———————-2000

    Florida——————————-14——————1171———————-1866

    Illinois——————————–9——————-1049———————1200

    So if 0.75% is the real long term death rate, one should expect that these states other than New York should see their “known” cases rise to something like the “estimated” case number even without a single additional person being infected. One should not be alarmed by these higher numbers if deaths are not really increasing very much for it just means that the number of cases is better known and more accurate.

    All that said I think the best approach is to aggressively test anyone who might have the disease and then aggressively treat those who are diagnosed with the disease. We now have treatments coming online and so if we treat everyone who has the disease there will be less asymptomatic people running around spreading the disease so we can beat it.

    • #25
    • March 23, 2020, at 4:42 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
    • This comment has been edited.
  26. Majority Rule abridges Free Sp… Coolidge

    namlliT noD (View Comment):
    I’m guessing some sort of “commute factor” plays a big role. Something involving the percentage of people who commute to work, the time it takes, the distance they travel, the density of the train, etc.

     

    Remember in the movie Terminator, they were told to go to the abandoned military site where the communication equipment used tubes and bulbs, not micro processors. I wonder if Manila is the tubes and bulbs and NY City is micro processors. The best I understand closer to five million come into Manila Metro daily to work but transportation system is old. But seriously I think the travel to and from China is far greater from NY City than the PI and that is where the major difference is could be between these large metro populations. Seattle also has a lot of travel to and from China, thus Washington State got hit.

    Here is an idea for the community of Ricochet, let’s apply for a Federal grant to do a social study of this event and answer namlliT noD hypothesis. I’d say 25 million dollars should get the study moving forward. Hey why not us? We have tech writers, editors, college wrestling throwing dummies, pilots, statisticians, IT professionals and clowns, … any Chinese – Jewish Chinese – submariners from the USS Codfish, (humor via Rickels and Newhart, and clown movie). Who wants to write the findings? Our Ricochet Statisticians will reverse engineer the data to make it all work out. lies, damned lies, and statistics equals $25 million. 

    Philippines Coronavirus Cases: 462 Deaths: 33

    Manila Population 2020 13,923,452
    Manila is the capital and second-largest city of the Philippines and one of 16 cities that comprise Metro Manila, which has an overall population of 12.8 million per the 2015 Census. The city of Manila has a population of 1.78 million in 2016, according to census data.

    Manila is the world’s most densely populated city with 42,857 people per square kilometer, or 111,002 people per square mile. This is all contained within an area of 42.88 square kilometers (16.56 square miles).

    The Metro Manila population is estimated at 12 million but the larger urban area has a population estimated at 21.3 million. The Metro Manila population swells during the daytime, however, to about 15 million. This density is much higher than that of Mumbai (23,000 people/sq km), Paris (20,150 people/sq km), and Toyko (10,100 people/sq km).

     

    • #26
    • March 23, 2020, at 4:57 PM PDT
    • 2 likes
  27. Steven Seward Member

    Majority Rule abridges Free Sp… (View Comment):

    Here is an idea for the community of Ricochet, let’s apply for a Federal grant to do a social study of this event and answer namlliT noD hypothesis. I’d say 25 million dollars should get the study moving forward. Hey why not us? We have tech writers, editors, college wrestling throwing dummies, pilots, statisticians, IT professionals and clowns, … any Chinese – Jewish Chinese – submariners from the USS Codfish, (humor via Rickels and Newhart, and clown movie).

    Love your idea! But I want to know “What are college wrestling throwing dummies, and who on Ricochet is one?”

    • #27
    • March 23, 2020, at 5:12 PM PDT
    • 1 like
  28. Phil Turmel Coolidge

    Steven Seward (View Comment):

    I’m not sure about that 3.4% death rate either. To be honest, I never did understand that graph on the Worldometers site. If you go to the point on the graph that lies above March 2nd and 3rd, you will get a death rate of 48%!!

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

    If I just take their total number of deaths (111) and divide it by their total number of infected cases (8,961) as of today, I come up with a death rate of .012 or 1.2%. 

    The key phrase is “cases which had an outcome”. You can’t use 111 vs. 8961 in your math because the bulk of the 8961 are still in progress! You can’t put those cases in the denominator until you have either dead or recovered. Come on, people! Really simple math!

    • #28
    • March 23, 2020, at 5:27 PM PDT
    • 6 likes
  29. Saint Augustine Member

    Phil Turmel (View Comment):

    Steven Seward (View Comment):

    I’m not sure about that 3.4% death rate either. To be honest, I never did understand that graph on the Worldometers site. If you go to the point on the graph that lies above March 2nd and 3rd, you will get a death rate of 48%!!

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

    If I just take their total number of deaths (111) and divide it by their total number of infected cases (8,961) as of today, I come up with a death rate of .012 or 1.2%.

    The key phrase is “cases which had an outcome”. You can’t use 111 vs. 8961 in your math because the bulk of the 8961 are still in progress! You can’t put those cases in the denominator until you have either dead or recovered. Come on, people! Really simple math!

    The first approach gives you a much too low death rate.

    The second approach gives you a death rate somewhat too high, since recoveries happen slower than deaths.

    The true death rate is somewhere in between.

    But even that is a strategy for considering the death rate among only the confirmed infections. Heaven knows how many infections are never to be confirmed!

    • #29
    • March 23, 2020, at 5:42 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
    • This comment has been edited.
  30. Majority Rule abridges Free Sp… Coolidge

    Steven Seward (View Comment):

    Majority Rule abridges Free Sp… (View Comment):

    Here is an idea for the community of Ricochet, let’s apply for a Federal grant to do a social study of this event and answer namlliT noD hypothesis. I’d say 25 million dollars should get the study moving forward. Hey why not us? We have tech writers, editors, college wrestling throwing dummies, pilots, statisticians, IT professionals and clowns, … any Chinese – Jewish Chinese – submariners from the USS Codfish, (humor via Rickels and Newhart, and clown movie).

    Love your idea! But I want to know “What are college wrestling throwing dummies, and who on Ricochet is one?”

    They are H.S wrestler’s who are dumb for thinking they are good enough to make it on a wrestling program way above their pay grade. We end up saving the program the cost of the leather stuffed throwing dummy in the mat room. When I got there I saw straw protruding from the shoulders and the stitching coming loose. I did not figure it out until after 3 knee and two shoulder surgeries. However, I had so much air time they gave me an honorary pilots license. Seward have you ever been to Moscow Russia? 

    • #30
    • March 23, 2020, at 5:46 PM PDT
    • 2 likes