Wuhan2K

 

Prediction: Due to the precautions taken, the number of infections and deaths in the U.S. will turn out to be much lower than most models predict. Because the precautions are so disruptive to the economy, and our everyday lives, it will be remembered as a foolish freak-out over just another periodic flu outbreak. (Which is far better than it being remembered as the national tragedy that killed millions.) This is the Y2K bug, but more disruptive and with some actual deaths involved.

Twenty years on, the popular mythology tells us the Y2K scare was just tha: a scare. A panic. A mass hysteria, but without the witch-burning. A small fortune (or, probably, several large fortunes) was spent on changing line after line of computer coding so that our computers wouldn’t think it was 1900, and then turn upon us, rending their masters limb from limb. Or something like that.

Few pause to consider that maybe the Y2K roll-over was no big deal because we “over-reacted,” and mitigated the disaster before it could occur. In the same way, I predict that people in late 2020 (us) will mock those idiots (us) who hoarded toilet paper* and canceled sportsball. Even though we idiots are saving (some of) their lives. Let’s hope so.

And I hope all of us will be there to join in the mockery.

*I’m pretty sure the toilet paper thing really is stupid and will save no lives, though.

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There are 45 comments.

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  1. Bryan G. Stephens Thatcher
    Bryan G. Stephens
    @BryanGStephens

    The people showing up sick now we’re infected days ago. We have seen numbers jump fast. Exponential growth is hard to grasp. If it does grow that way, hard measures are needed.

    I don’t know enough to know if we need it.

    • #31
  2. Marythefifth Inactive
    Marythefifth
    @Marythefifth

    OK. I’ll start.

    Per that Worldometer website, deaths:
    from seasonal flu this year: 105,744, as I type this today: 619
    from covid-19 this year: 10,544, today: 516
    It doesn’t show the breakdown for seasonal flu, cases, recovered, still in hospital. I suppose those numbers are somewhere.

    It appears that an abortion is performed every second.

    • #32
  3. Brian Clendinen Inactive
    Brian Clendinen
    @BrianClendinen

    My prediction is because of the hysterical self-harm. Overall hospitalizations and deaths from flu will be at historical averages (In US). Worldwide there is a small chance it being really bad flu season however more like a 20 year high.  I wonder if there will be a uptick in attempted suicides over the next few month. Granted that rate is already on the increase so I wonder if this will make it worse with the social disconnection and financial impacts. My sister who is a clinician, does not think so I am most likely wrong. I just think people who are already at risk this stuff will cause more of them to spiral out of control.

    The long-term model are bull crap and are about as good as long term climate models. There has been a lot of money and effort to predict seasonal flu numbers. By a lot of really smart AI engineers, statisticians, doctors, spending years on it. All the models were less predictive (the more complex ones were even less predative) than using the previous two weeks of doctors visits for flu symptoms.

    • #33
  4. OldPhil Coolidge
    OldPhil
    @OldPhil

    Roderic (View Comment):

    OldPhil (View Comment):
    But you know all those dead people don’t really matter because it’s only the flu.

    This is different. The seasonal flu has never crashed the medical system.

    Show us a crashed medical system in the US.

    • #34
  5. MichaelKennedy Inactive
    MichaelKennedy
    @MichaelKennedy

    WI Con (View Comment):

    They’ve tanked the markets, maybe have caused a Depression to “save us” from a flu strain with a mortality rate of maybe between 3.4-1.2%?

    Maybe they should set off some nukes too to sterilize things a bit, for our own good of course.

    I think when testing catches up the mortality will be less then 1% and about 0.1% for those under 50 without pre-existing conditions.  Chloroquine should allow some relaxation of the economic damage in about two weeks.

    • #35
  6. MichaelKennedy Inactive
    MichaelKennedy
    @MichaelKennedy

    Bryan G. Stephens (View Comment):

    Miffed White Male (View Comment):

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    WI Con (View Comment):

    They’ve tanked the markets, maybe have caused a Depression to “save us” from a flu strain with a mortality rate of maybe between 3.4-1.2%?

    So is there an “acceptable” mortality rate that would have balanced economic concerns with only some deaths of the particularly susceptible?

     

    Yes. Because an economic crash will kill people too.

    I don’t know anyone personally who’s afraid of getting the virus. I know a lot of people that are very afraid about the economy right now.

    Well, I know someone personally on a ventilator right now. In his 30s and (was) in great health. Now cannot breath and heart trouble.

    So, maybe people are not afraid. I have to say, at 50, that I am concerned to have been in contact with him in the past 10 days.

    Take your hydroxychloroquine and relax.  Hopefully your friend will get remdesivir and be off the ventilator quickly.

    • #36
  7. MichaelKennedy Inactive
    MichaelKennedy
    @MichaelKennedy

    Roderic (View Comment):

    OldPhil (View Comment):
    But you know all those dead people don’t really matter because it’s only the flu.

    This is different. The seasonal flu has never crashed the medical system.

    This will not either. Flu season fills hospital every winter.  There is now medical treatment that is effective, in spite of the FDA I might add.  Ironically, my wife who is at very high risk due to chronic illness, has been taking hydroxychloroquine for her rheumatoid arthritis for three years and ism probably safer than I am as a result.

    • #37
  8. Instugator Thatcher
    Instugator
    @Instugator

    Full Size Tabby (View Comment):
    I am not aware of any biological function in history that has followed a run-away path.

    Black death comes to mind.

    Along with the difference in quarantine policies in one place in Italy, compared to others.

    Then there is the Justinian Plague. About 800 years earlier.

    I am sure there are others. In this time of abundant internet, perhaps you could look them up?

    • #38
  9. Instugator Thatcher
    Instugator
    @Instugator

    Roderic (View Comment):
    So far this thing is not slowing down. We could still see that, and hopefully we’ll see it soon.

    I am not expecting to see that for another week. That is based on the distribution of symptoms showing up 5 to 14 days after exposure.

    • #39
  10. Joshua Bissey Inactive
    Joshua Bissey
    @TheSockMonkey

    ParisParamus (View Comment):
    I’m confused. You’re suggesting that all the work that went into mitigating the Y2K computer limitation had no effect? That makes no sense—I’ll leave it at that. Except for offering the word idiotic.

    If you’re responding to the OP, no that’s not what I said. Allow myself to quote – myself:

    Joshua Bissey: Few pause to consider that maybe the Y2K roll-over was no big deal because we “over-reacted,” and mitigated the disaster before it could occur.

    A lot of people (most people, I think) remember the Y2k computer bug as being something we worried too much about, and wasn’t really a problem after all. I think these people are wrong. I think they didn’t see the horrible problems they were warned about because so much work went into preventing those problems.

    • #40
  11. The Scarecrow Thatcher
    The Scarecrow
    @TheScarecrow

    Marythefifth (View Comment):

    Something I long to see that you’d think would bring some calm and sanity is side-by-side real time comparisons of covid-19 cases vs. seasonal flu cases. One would think that corona is the ONLY flu virus affecting the world right now. Every time a new case is reported for corona, the current numbers for regular flu must be shown as well. I’m hoping that data isn’t being suppressed or going unreported. Why the heck is no one doing this?

    Exactly.  And all of those people who “die of the Flu every year” are still going to die this year. A new virus doesn’t take the old ones we’ve been tolerating suddenly disappear. The new one will add pressure to the system; many marginal Flu victims who would have survived because of health care in time will now die, because the margin has moved.  Same for everything else.

    Regardless of how much this current virus might calm down and fade into the acceptable background as it mutates into “under the radar” status, many more people are going to die of all the other things than would have.  Going to be a rough year.

    • #41
  12. KitJ Inactive
    KitJ
    @KitJ

    This is basically what I’m praying happens. We look back and have to debate whether or not this was an over-reaction.

    • #42
  13. OldPhil Coolidge
    OldPhil
    @OldPhil

    KitJ (View Comment):

    This is basically what I’m praying happens. We look back and have to debate whether or not this was an over-reaction.

    It won’t be much of a debate. More like a “Case closed, your honor!”

    • #43
  14. Trajan Inactive
    Trajan
    @Trajan

    OldPhil (View Comment):

    Trajan (View Comment):

    *shrugs* my county just decided to amp up the panic by enacting a shelter in place.

    Our schools were already closed, k-12 thru Grad school, social awareness/distancing etc etc etc. ……( I live in the Bay Area Oblast).

     

    Heres my prediction; there will be no causality rate that will make this measure of shelter in place seem a reasonable response on top off the already enacted responses, and that will occur to oh, 65% of the folks here pretty much at the same time, like say next Wed., the latest.

    Of that 65% over half, easily, will ignore the shelter in place wholesale, then the rest will too.

    Like probation soured respect for authority and turned over the half country into cheerful law breakers for continuing to find ways to get or drink alcohol, this too will drive peoples already low respect for authority even further….and viola’ another high water mark for progressives re; unintended consequences.

    We know you meant prohibition, just pointing it out.

     

    oops, thanx;)

    • #44
  15. Instugator Thatcher
    Instugator
    @Instugator

    Joshua Bissey (View Comment):
    A lot of people (most people, I think) remember the Y2k computer bug as being something we worried too much about, and wasn’t really a problem after all. I think these people are wrong.

    In the last month alone, I have seen numerous reports / articles / opinions that Y2K was overblown. I too believe such opinions to be (how was it?) idiotic. 

    • #45
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