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Wuhan2K
Prediction: Due to the precautions taken, the number of infections and deaths in the U.S. will turn out to be much lower than most models predict. Because the precautions are so disruptive to the economy, and our everyday lives, it will be remembered as a foolish freak-out over just another periodic flu outbreak. (Which is far better than it being remembered as the national tragedy that killed millions.) This is the Y2K bug, but more disruptive and with some actual deaths involved.
Twenty years on, the popular mythology tells us the Y2K scare was just tha: a scare. A panic. A mass hysteria, but without the witch-burning. A small fortune (or, probably, several large fortunes) was spent on changing line after line of computer coding so that our computers wouldn’t think it was 1900, and then turn upon us, rending their masters limb from limb. Or something like that.
Few pause to consider that maybe the Y2K roll-over was no big deal because we “over-reacted,” and mitigated the disaster before it could occur. In the same way, I predict that people in late 2020 (us) will mock those idiots (us) who hoarded toilet paper* and canceled sportsball. Even though we idiots are saving (some of) their lives. Let’s hope so.
And I hope all of us will be there to join in the mockery.
*I’m pretty sure the toilet paper thing really is stupid and will save no lives, though.
Published in Culture
The people showing up sick now we’re infected days ago. We have seen numbers jump fast. Exponential growth is hard to grasp. If it does grow that way, hard measures are needed.
I don’t know enough to know if we need it.
OK. I’ll start.
Per that Worldometer website, deaths:
from seasonal flu this year: 105,744, as I type this today: 619
from covid-19 this year: 10,544, today: 516
It doesn’t show the breakdown for seasonal flu, cases, recovered, still in hospital. I suppose those numbers are somewhere.
It appears that an abortion is performed every second.
My prediction is because of the hysterical self-harm. Overall hospitalizations and deaths from flu will be at historical averages (In US). Worldwide there is a small chance it being really bad flu season however more like a 20 year high. I wonder if there will be a uptick in attempted suicides over the next few month. Granted that rate is already on the increase so I wonder if this will make it worse with the social disconnection and financial impacts. My sister who is a clinician, does not think so I am most likely wrong. I just think people who are already at risk this stuff will cause more of them to spiral out of control.
The long-term model are bull crap and are about as good as long term climate models. There has been a lot of money and effort to predict seasonal flu numbers. By a lot of really smart AI engineers, statisticians, doctors, spending years on it. All the models were less predictive (the more complex ones were even less predative) than using the previous two weeks of doctors visits for flu symptoms.
Show us a crashed medical system in the US.
I think when testing catches up the mortality will be less then 1% and about 0.1% for those under 50 without pre-existing conditions. Chloroquine should allow some relaxation of the economic damage in about two weeks.
Take your hydroxychloroquine and relax. Hopefully your friend will get remdesivir and be off the ventilator quickly.
This will not either. Flu season fills hospital every winter. There is now medical treatment that is effective, in spite of the FDA I might add. Ironically, my wife who is at very high risk due to chronic illness, has been taking hydroxychloroquine for her rheumatoid arthritis for three years and ism probably safer than I am as a result.
Black death comes to mind.
Along with the difference in quarantine policies in one place in Italy, compared to others.
Then there is the Justinian Plague. About 800 years earlier.
I am sure there are others. In this time of abundant internet, perhaps you could look them up?
I am not expecting to see that for another week. That is based on the distribution of symptoms showing up 5 to 14 days after exposure.
If you’re responding to the OP, no that’s not what I said. Allow myself to quote – myself:
A lot of people (most people, I think) remember the Y2k computer bug as being something we worried too much about, and wasn’t really a problem after all. I think these people are wrong. I think they didn’t see the horrible problems they were warned about because so much work went into preventing those problems.
Exactly. And all of those people who “die of the Flu every year” are still going to die this year. A new virus doesn’t take the old ones we’ve been tolerating suddenly disappear. The new one will add pressure to the system; many marginal Flu victims who would have survived because of health care in time will now die, because the margin has moved. Same for everything else.
Regardless of how much this current virus might calm down and fade into the acceptable background as it mutates into “under the radar” status, many more people are going to die of all the other things than would have. Going to be a rough year.
This is basically what I’m praying happens. We look back and have to debate whether or not this was an over-reaction.
It won’t be much of a debate. More like a “Case closed, your honor!”
oops, thanx;)
In the last month alone, I have seen numerous reports / articles / opinions that Y2K was overblown. I too believe such opinions to be (how was it?) idiotic.