Work the Problem, Not the Panic

 

Problem: An illness is going around. The young barely feel it, but for those at risk (generally the elderly) it can be as bad or worse than the flu, which kills tens of thousands in the US every year.

Solution: Limit or eliminate the exposure of those at risk of serious illness. Do this through careful hygiene, quarantine, and with ready access to the drugs which have shown that they work against this illness.

Conclusion: Address the challenge while still getting the world back to normal as quickly as possible before the economy collapses.

Is this really so hard to grasp? Is there something wrong with my logic?

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  1. iWe Coolidge
    iWe
    @iWe

    Instugator (View Comment):

    iWe (View Comment):
    “Additionally, the infection is not on the downswing in any country except China. ” is not fact.

    Fine, show me another country where the number of cases is not growing. Today, at this time, that statement is true.

    You are moving goalposts. “Downswing” is not the same as “the number of cases is not growing.”  The number of new infections has dropped heavily in South Korea. The number of recovered people exceeds the number of sick people.

    • #61
  2. Instugator Thatcher
    Instugator
    @Instugator

    iWe (View Comment):

    Instugator (View Comment):
    Instugator Ricochet Charter Member

    iWe (View Comment):
    “Economies Rebound” is a prediction.

    No, it is a statement of fact.

    It is not. Some economies do not. Some industries do not. How long will it take airlines to recover if we are shut down for a month? How about hotels? Conference centers? You are sure they will all fully rebound? And this is fact?

    I made no prediction as to what the components of the economy will look like. Just said they rebound.

    Just like in 2001. Airlines shut down for 3 days.

    Economies rebound.

    Even after Obama.

    Even after this.

    • #62
  3. Instugator Thatcher
    Instugator
    @Instugator

    iWe (View Comment):
    The number of recovered people exceeds the number of sick people.

    No it doesn’t. 1540 Discharged people does not exceed 6789 Isolated people.

    From the SK website you provided as of today.

    Confirmed  / Discharged / Isolated / Deceased

    8413 / 1540 / 6789 / 84

    You will note that 8413 = 1540 + 6789 + 84

    Meaning that discharged = “recovered people” in your parlance

    and “Isolated” = “sick people” in your parlance

     

    • #63
  4. Lois Lane Coolidge
    Lois Lane
    @LoisLane

    Looking into a conversation, it seems both parties are right to some extent.  

    Historically, economies do always rebound in some way, but the problem is that one does not know when a rebound comes. 

    For example, there was an economic road bump in 1929, and then the recovery rebounded in… 1930?  1931?  1932?  1933?  1934?  1935?  1936?  1937?  1938?  1939?  19…  

    Rebounds depend in great part to various actions that are impossible to predict. So no one is wrong to believe that we will recover.  We are Americans!  The business of Americans is business!  But it’s also not strange to be very concerned about when and after how much suffering….  

     

    • #64
  5. Snirtler Inactive
    Snirtler
    @Snirtler

    Linking to these two articles by epidemiologists on two sides of the debate: are we overreacting? Listed in order of publication date.

    • A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
    • We know enough now to act decisively against Covid-19. Social distancing is a good place to start
    • #65
  6. Instugator Thatcher
    Instugator
    @Instugator

    iWe (View Comment):
    The number of recovered people exceeds the number of sick people.

    When this happens we will be on the downswing as my math earlier shows.

    “If the number of recoveries is greater than 1/2 the number of total cases. “

    So using the the SK numbers earlier

    When 

    (.5 * Confirmed) < Discharged

    Or using today’s numbers, if Discharged were greater than 4206.

     

    • #66
  7. Snirtler Inactive
    Snirtler
    @Snirtler

    Working the problem, not the panic, with temporary lockdowns, see here.

    • #67
  8. Instugator Thatcher
    Instugator
    @Instugator

    Snirtler (View Comment):

    Working the problem, not the panic, with temporary lockdowns, see here.

    Yep. breaking the vectors.

    • #68
  9. Saint Augustine Member
    Saint Augustine
    @SaintAugustine

    iWe (View Comment):

    Instugator (View Comment):
    Instugator Ricochet Charter Member

    iWe (View Comment):
    “Economies Rebound” is a prediction.

    No, it is a statement of fact.

    It is not.

    The sun will rise tomorrow morning, just like it did this morning.

    Fact and prediction: not mutually exclusive categories.

    But I thought the real issue was whether Insugator had made any “wild worst-case predictions.”

    Instugator (View Comment):

    iWe (View Comment):
    Is it so critical for you to just stick a thumb in the air and make wild worst-case predictions?

    I have made no predictions. I have only stated fact.

    • #69
  10. Instugator Thatcher
    Instugator
    @Instugator

    Saint Augustine (View Comment):
    Fact and prediction: not mutually exclusive categories.

    True

    • #70
  11. Old Bathos Moderator
    Old Bathos
    @OldBathos

    Economies generally rebound from downturns. The US economy is stronger than most thus more likely than most to survive a downturn.

    The above is a statement of fact with an implicit if rather general prediction of a favorable outcome.

    If anybody posts a dissenting comment or mischaracterizes this one for the purpose of extending a sterile exchange,  I will call him or her bad names before editing that comment.

     

    • #71
  12. Instugator Thatcher
    Instugator
    @Instugator

    iWe (View Comment):
    Under the age of 30, ZERO deaths.

    I like this tracker.

    https://www.domo.com/coronavirus-tracking

    • #72
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