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Work the Problem, Not the Panic
Problem: An illness is going around. The young barely feel it, but for those at risk (generally the elderly) it can be as bad or worse than the flu, which kills tens of thousands in the US every year.
Solution: Limit or eliminate the exposure of those at risk of serious illness. Do this through careful hygiene, quarantine, and with ready access to the drugs which have shown that they work against this illness.
Conclusion: Address the challenge while still getting the world back to normal as quickly as possible before the economy collapses.
Is this really so hard to grasp? Is there something wrong with my logic?
Published in General
You are moving goalposts. “Downswing” is not the same as “the number of cases is not growing.” The number of new infections has dropped heavily in South Korea. The number of recovered people exceeds the number of sick people.
I made no prediction as to what the components of the economy will look like. Just said they rebound.
Just like in 2001. Airlines shut down for 3 days.
Economies rebound.
Even after Obama.
Even after this.
No it doesn’t. 1540 Discharged people does not exceed 6789 Isolated people.
From the SK website you provided as of today.
Confirmed / Discharged / Isolated / Deceased
8413 / 1540 / 6789 / 84
You will note that 8413 = 1540 + 6789 + 84
Meaning that discharged = “recovered people” in your parlance
and “Isolated” = “sick people” in your parlance
Looking into a conversation, it seems both parties are right to some extent.
Historically, economies do always rebound in some way, but the problem is that one does not know when a rebound comes.
For example, there was an economic road bump in 1929, and then the recovery rebounded in… 1930? 1931? 1932? 1933? 1934? 1935? 1936? 1937? 1938? 1939? 19…
Rebounds depend in great part to various actions that are impossible to predict. So no one is wrong to believe that we will recover. We are Americans! The business of Americans is business! But it’s also not strange to be very concerned about when and after how much suffering….
Linking to these two articles by epidemiologists on two sides of the debate: are we overreacting? Listed in order of publication date.
When this happens we will be on the downswing as my math earlier shows.
“If the number of recoveries is greater than 1/2 the number of total cases. “
So using the the SK numbers earlier
When
(.5 * Confirmed) < Discharged
Or using today’s numbers, if Discharged were greater than 4206.
Working the problem, not the panic, with temporary lockdowns, see here.
Yep. breaking the vectors.
The sun will rise tomorrow morning, just like it did this morning.
Fact and prediction: not mutually exclusive categories.
But I thought the real issue was whether Insugator had made any “wild worst-case predictions.”
True
Economies generally rebound from downturns. The US economy is stronger than most thus more likely than most to survive a downturn.
The above is a statement of fact with an implicit if rather general prediction of a favorable outcome.
If anybody posts a dissenting comment or mischaracterizes this one for the purpose of extending a sterile exchange, I will call him or her bad names before editing that comment.
I like this tracker.
https://www.domo.com/coronavirus-tracking