More Fevered Calculations: Working the Coronavirus Numbers

 

In all the hype and happy talk around the latest coronavirus to cross over to humans, keep an eye on this number in America: 498,000. That is the number of people this novel coronavirus will have to infect to cause as many deaths as the annual, seasonal flu. I tried to make sense of the numbers around notorious coronavirus, a.k.a. COVID-19, in a post about a week ago now.

I now note that the presidential proclamation, suspending travel from certain countries, referred to COVID-19 as “SARS-CoV-2.” The CDC page explains the reason for the changing names. This prompted another look at the numbers, with this math-challenged scribbler doing a bit of stubby pencil, back-of-the-envelope figuring. Check my math as I work through the numbers; hopefully it is better than Ma and Pa Kettle’s.

SARS last time had an 9-10% mortality rate. It was nothing like influenza, including the worse known version in 1918-19, because the number of people who actually contracted SARS was so much lower than the number of people who get the flu globally every year. Think about it: if the flu regularly kills 1 in 1000 infected, and SARS killed 1 in 10, then you can see that SARS would have to infect 1/100 the number of flu victims to reach the same death count.

It is still very early days, perhaps 90 days into this latest coronavirus outbreak, but the deaths divided by total resolved (recovered or dead) percentage (likely the best measurement of lethality) is down to 6%, according to the Worldometer coronavirus dashboard. So, the question will be how many cases are detected that recover versus die over the next few months or year. If 1 in 1000 die of flu, then I think that means this new coronavirus variant would have to infect 1.66 percent as many people as the flu to kill the same number this year.

[It is fair to note that the numbers out of China and Iran may be unreliable. We should probably track deaths divided by total resolved cases excluding these two large sources. However, the early numbers from each reporting country vary wildly, suggesting a single number, capturing all data from all sources outside China and Iran, may itself be misleading in these first 90 days.]

While 1.66 percent sounds small, the sheer number of flu cases is always huge. How huge? That is hard to say, because it is only an estimate and varies widely year to year, according to the CDC:

CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

That is just in the United States. Eyeballing the numbers, it looks like the median number is around 30 million falling ill with the flu annually. So, 0.1% mortality means around 30,000 deaths expected from the flu in such a year. If my fevered figuring is right, and if SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) only has to infect 1.66% of that flu number (30 million) to extract the same death toll, then this novel coronavirus will have to infect 498,000 people in the United States to cause as many deaths as the annual, seasonal flu. Sure enough, if you multiple 498,000 cases by 6% mortality rate, you get roughly 30,000 deaths.

This is why we should all be interested in limiting the spread of this latest bad bug. Let’s all cough and sneeze into our elbow, not our hands, wash our hands while singing the alphabet song, and work on getting good sleep, food and a bit of exercise for good health. Oh, and check the CDC COVID-19 page from time to time. I leave you with three videos for the weekend: Ma and Pa Kettle, the alphabet song, and Fever.

First up, math gone horribly wrong:

Second up is the original (and only legit) alphabet song, brought back to my attention in a tweet by a woman to the effect of “Washing my hands when a little girl started singing the alphabet song. Couldn’t stop until she finished!”

Finally, let’s all strive to avoid giving each other the wrong sort of fever:

[Thanks for the feedback, leading to a correction on SARS, a clarification on the mortality metric, and a brief note on data quality.]

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  1. Clifford A. Brown Member
    Clifford A. Brown
    @CliffordBrown

    pamsguy (View Comment):

    330,000,000 (estimated population of US) x 80% (potential spread of infection over an unspecified time period) = 264,000,000 (# of people with coronavirus) x 2% (worst case ? mortality rate) = 5,280,000 (potential deceased in some undefined time period). Are the assumptions noted unreasonable based on what you have read?

    Yes. Obviously unreasonable. 

    • #61
  2. Mark Camp Member
    Mark Camp
    @MarkCamp

    pamsguy (View Comment):

    330,000,000 (estimated population of US) x 80% (potential spread of infection over an unspecified time period) = 264,000,000 (# of people with coronavirus) x 2% (worst case ? mortality rate) = 5,280,000 (potential deceased in some undefined time period). Are the assumptions noted unreasonable based on what you have read?

    I’d add in an adjustment for the fact that many, if not most, people who die from 2019-nCoV would have died from other infections, including other corona viruses, in the same period.  I don’t vouch for your math otherwise because I’m already losing interest in 2019-nCoV and don’t want to think about it, but would only add this correction to whatever the correct math is.

    Note: the biggest 2019-nCov death toll is one that no one is talking about.  With warm weather coming in the northern hemisphere, where

    • most people live
    • most rich people live
    • most people who’ve gotten sick from this minor epidemic live

    the death toll of 2019-nCov virus is going to skyrocket, because the bugs probably can’t stand warm moist weather.  With Global Warming, the situation is only amplified.

    The epidemic I am more concerned about is the one which

    • Jim George highlighted in his post “We Couldn’t Say That”, and
    • is displayed in a post yesterday or so by a guy who viciously slandered a fellow Ricocheteer with no more consequence than yet another presumably cunning, but mostly sleepy nod of approval from our Moderators
    • #62
  3. Clifford A. Brown Member
    Clifford A. Brown
    @CliffordBrown

    Mark Camp (View Comment):

    Note: the biggest 2019-nCov death toll is one that no one is talking about. With warm weather coming in the northern hemisphere, where

    • most people live
    • most rich people live
    • most people who’ve gotten sick from this minor epidemic live

    the death toll of 2019-nCov virus is going to skyrocket, because the bugs probably can’t stand warm moist weather. With Global Warming, the situation is only amplified.

    I think you mean that with warmer weather in the northern hemisphere, the death rate will likely plummet, as with all similar respiratory infections, hence the annual “flu season.” 

    • #63
  4. Mark Camp Member
    Mark Camp
    @MarkCamp

    Clifford A. Brown (View Comment):

    Mark Camp (View Comment):

    Note: the biggest 2019-nCov death toll is one that no one is talking about. With warm weather coming in the northern hemisphere, where

    • most people live
    • most rich people live
    • most people who’ve gotten sick from this minor epidemic live

    the death toll of 2019-nCov virus is going to skyrocket, because the bugs probably can’t stand warm moist weather. With Global Warming, the situation is only amplified.

    I think you mean that with warmer weather in the northern hemisphere, the death rate will likely plummet, as with all similar respiratory infections, hence the annual “flu season.”

    The death rate of humans, yes.  But the viruses are going to die by the truckload. Or if they really can’t die, as has been claimed here by some microbio-theologians, then at least they are going to do whatever viruses do when they “pass”, as we say here in the Midwest.

    • #64
  5. iWe Coolidge
    iWe
    @iWe

    I wonder. Northern Italy is really not cold this time of year, is it? The virus seems to be fine equatorially (like Singapore).

    So while I know Corona is overstated in a bid to create Trump’s Katrina, I am not so sure of its seasonality.

    • #65
  6. Clifford A. Brown Member
    Clifford A. Brown
    @CliffordBrown

    iWe (View Comment):

    I wonder. Northern Italy is really not cold this time of year, is it? The virus seems to be fine equatorially (like Singapore).

    So while I know Corona is overstated in a bid to create Trump’s Katrina, I am not so sure of its seasonality.

    Highs in the 60s, lows 40s, 30s this week in Milan. Not warm weather, relatively speaking.

    • #66
  7. DrewInWisconsin, Influencer Member
    DrewInWisconsin, Influencer
    @DrewInWisconsin

    Clifford A. Brown (View Comment):

    iWe (View Comment):

    I wonder. Northern Italy is really not cold this time of year, is it? The virus seems to be fine equatorially (like Singapore).

    So while I know Corona is overstated in a bid to create Trump’s Katrina, I am not so sure of its seasonality.

    Highs in the 60s, lows 40s, 30s this week in Milan. Not warm weather, relatively speaking.

    Interesting to note that Italy already lists 1,000 people recovered. The U.S. still lists only 15 recovered (or 8 at the Johns Hopkins dashboard). Those U.S. numbers have been stuck there for over a week.

    What counts as “recovered”?

    • #67
  8. Roderic Coolidge
    Roderic
    @rhfabian

    Scott R (View Comment):
    Expect the hysteria to hit Level 11 over the next couple weeks as the hockey stick graphs appear which claim to show exponentially increasing cases of the virus in the U.S. but in reality only show our increasing capacity to detect cases which have been here for some time.

    I don’t think that’s the case.  The rate of spread in the US is about the same as in countries with much more extensive testing.  Besides which, counting symptomatic patients provides consistency even if mild cases are missed.   If the current rate of spread continues for another 30 days or so we will hit 480,000 with change.    Hopefully, warmer weather will slow it down a lot.

    It’s not spreading in Brazil so far.  They are in the warm season there.  

    • #68
  9. Jules PA Inactive
    Jules PA
    @JulesPA

    DrewInWisconsin, Influencer (View Comment):

    Clifford A. Brown (View Comment):

    iWe (View Comment):

    I wonder. Northern Italy is really not cold this time of year, is it? The virus seems to be fine equatorially (like Singapore).

    So while I know Corona is overstated in a bid to create Trump’s Katrina, I am not so sure of its seasonality.

    Highs in the 60s, lows 40s, 30s this week in Milan. Not warm weather, relatively speaking.

    Interesting to note that Italy already lists 1,000 people recovered. The U.S. still lists only 15 recovered (or 8 at the Johns Hopkins dashboard). Those U.S. numbers have been stuck there for over a week.

    What counts as “recovered”?

    Where did I just hear, to be recovered, 72 hours without fever, and no drugs to control said fever, plus 2 negative test series, at least 24 hours apart.

     

    • #69
  10. Roderic Coolidge
    Roderic
    @rhfabian

    Jules

    Jules PA (View Comment):
    plus 2 negative test series, at least 24 hours apart.

    There’s the hangup.  It’s too hard to get tests done in the US.

     

    • #70
  11. Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… Coolidge
    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo…
    @GumbyMark

    Roderic (View Comment):

    Jules

    Jules PA (View Comment):
    plus 2 negative test series, at least 24 hours apart.

    There’s the hangup. It’s too hard to get tests done in the US.

    And now that the test kits are out we may have a shortage of the reagents needed to run the tests.

     

    • #71
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