Day 45: COVID-19 “In the Wild”

 

Country count reporting COVID-19 cases is now at 87. In the Worldometer.com news quote (below) I am including both March 5 and 4 as some March 4 items updated after I posted yesterday.

The latest calculation of the mortality rate from the World Health Organization is 3.4%. This was reported in remarks by the WHO Director-General on March 3:

The second major difference is that COVID-19 causes more severe disease than seasonal influenza.

While many people globally have built up immunity to seasonal flu strains, COVID-19 is a new virus to which no one has immunity. That means more people are susceptible to infection, and some will suffer severe disease.

Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.

Note that WHO generally puts a happy face on things given its emphasis on international cooperation and support over scientific rigor. So you know that the Director-General did not want to report that COVID-19 is nearly four times as deadly as flu. But the problem remains that while we know the numerator (for the most part) we really don’t know the denominator. Singapore seems to be good at identifying, containing, and treating COVID-19 and reports no deaths. They have been transparent in their process. South Korea has done a lot of testing and have reported over 6,000 cases with 40 deaths — an ostensible mortality rate of under 1%. But the correct calculation is to look at total deaths compared to the number of cases when the last person who later died became sick. That was presumptively about a week ago. At that point South Korea had identified fewer than 2,000 cases. Using that as the denominator the tentative death rate in South Korea is a little over 2%. So the real number if one could know precisely how many people have become infected and how many people have died as a result of infection is likely less that the 3.4% figure. So why did WHO report that number? They really didn’t have a choice. Data is out there even if it is not precise. The 3.4% figure can be derived from the deaths/confirmed cases in the Worldometers table for current world-wide totals. So the take-away is that COVID-19 can be deadly, particularly for the aged and others with compromised immune systems. And that it is sufficiently infectious that our health systems can be overwhelmed. If that happens, then the secondary victims of COVID-19 will mount.

Living on the West Coast I can’t help but take note of the latest cruise ship drama. An elderly man who took a cruise on the Grand Princess from San Francisco on February 11 became ill and after arriving back in San Francisco on February 21 sought medical attention. He was admitted to the Roseville Kaiser medical center northeast of Sacramento and died there yesterday morning of COVID-19. A second passenger on that ship has also become ill but has not died. The ship left port around February 25 on another cruise that was due to arrive back in San Francisco today. But it is being held off shore while test kits are sent to it. I am really looking forward to the same group of people who think public pooping, drug use, and homelessness is OK figuring out how to handle this.

[Note: Links to all my COVID-19 posts can be found here.]

Worldometers.com news updates:

March 5 (GMT):

 

  • 92 new cases in France, including the first 3 in Corsica [source] [source]
  • 18 new cases and 1st death in Switzerland: a 74-year-old woman who had been hospitalized since March 3. The woman suffered from a chronic illness. Source of infection still unclear. [source][source]
  • 31 new cases and 1 death in Spain [source]
  • 30 new cases in Japan, including 8 in Tokyo and 8 in Aichi
  • 5 new cases in the Republic of San Marino bringing the total to 21: 15 are hospitalized, 3 are in serious condition. [source]
  • 2 new cases in the United States (New York): a man in his 40s and a woman in her 80s, bringing the total number in the state to 13 [source]
  • 182 new cases in Germany [source] [source]
  • 1 new case in India (Ghaziabad) [source]
  • 22 new cases in Greece [source]
  • 1 new case in Canada (Québec) [source]
  • 5 new cases and 2 new recoveries in Singapore [source]
  • 3 new cases in Saudi Arabia [source]
  • 1st case in South Africa: a 38-year-old man who had traveled to Italy with his wife. They were part of a group of 10 who arrived back in South Africa on March 1. [source]
  • 8 new cases in Iceland [source]
  • 1 new case in Egypt, bringing the total to 3 [source]
  • 3 new cases and 3 new recoveries in Bahrain [source]
  • 5 new cases in Malaysia [source]
  • 8 new cases in Sweden, bringing the total number of cases in the country to 60. [source]
  • 27 new cases in Belgium [source]
  • 1 new case in Georgia: a person who had recently visited Italy. [source]
  • 3 new cases in Azebaijan: they had all visited Iran. [source]
  • 1 new case in Estonia: a resident of Tallinn who had been on the same flight from Bergamo, Italy, to Riga as the second confirmed case. [source]
  • 1 new case in Slovenia: a person who was in contact with the first case. [source]
  • 591 new cases and 15 new deaths in Iran
  • 5 new cases in Finland: 3 in the Helsinki and Uusimaa hospital district, 1 is in Pirkanmaa and 1 in Kanta-Häme. The case in Kanta-Häme is a child in Hämeenlinna who had returned from northern Italy with their family on Tuesday. [source]
  • 3 new cases in Scotland (UK) [source]
  • First 2 cases in Palestine (West Bank). Palestinian Authority closes Bethlehem churches and mosques for two weeks [source]
  • 1 new case in Russia: an Italian citizen [source]
  • 2 new cases in Portugal: two males, aged between 40 and 50, admitted to São João Hospital in Porto.
  • 1st case in Bosnia and Herzegovina: a middle-aged man and his child who recently visited Italy. His wife tested negative. He is in stable condition, hospitalized in isolation in Banja Luka. School children who have had contact with the infected child will now be tested. [source]
  • 1 new case in Morocco: a Moroccan woman who recently returned to Casablanca from Italy. [source]
  • 2 new cases in Kuwait [source] [source]
  • 8 new cases in Norway [source]
  • 13 new cases in Austria [source]
  • 2 new cases in the United States:
    – a Facebook worker in Seattle
    [source]
    – the first case in New Jersey:
    a man in his 30s hospitalized in Bergen County [source]
  • 4 new cases in Thailand [source]
    – a 29 year-old Italian man who arrived in Thailand on March 1
    – a 42 year-old Thai male office worker who returned from Italy
    – a 22 year-old Chinese male student who was screened with symptoms while in transit at Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi Airport while traveling from Iran to China.
    – a 20 year-old Thai male student who arrived from Iran on Feb. 27
  • 467 new cases, 5 new deaths, and 47 new recoveries in South Korea [source] [source]
  • 139 new cases (134 in Hubei), 31 new deaths (all in Hubei) and 2,189 new discharges occurred in China on March 4, as reported by the National Health Commission (NHC) of China. [source]

March 4:

AMERICAS

  • 2 new deaths and 34 new cases in the United States
    1 new case in Texas: in Fort Bend County [source]
    1 new death in Washington state. [source]
    1 new death in Placer County, CA (first death in California): an elderly adult with underlying health conditions. [source]
    12 new cases in Washington state:
    [source]
    10 in King County
    2 in Snohomish County
    9 new cases in New York state including:

    5 in Westchester County [source]
    1: an attorney in his 50s in critical condition at New York-Presbyterian/Columbia University Irving Medical Center. The man has an underlying respiratory condition. The case is believed to be the city’s first case of community spread [source]
    1: a student at Yeshiva University [source]
    12 new cases in California:
    6
    in Los Angeles County [source] California declares state of emergency. [source]
    2
    in Orange County in Southern California: a man in his 60s and a woman in her 30s who had recently traveled to countries that have widespread reports of COVID-19, officials said. [source]
    1
    in Contra Costa County in Northern California [source]
    3 in Santa Clara County in Northern California [source]
  • 4 new cases in Canada (British Columbia), including a woman in her 80s who is in critical condition at Vancouver General Hospital [source] [source]
  • 1 new case in Chile: the wife of the first case [source]
  • 1 new case in Brazil (São Paulo) [source]
  • 3 new cases in Ecuador: all relatives of a previously identified case. [source]

EUROPE

  • 1 new case in Croatia. [source]
  • First case in Slovenia: a person coming from Morocco via Italy. [source]
  • 4 new cases in Ireland [source]
  • 587 new cases and 28 new deaths in Italy. Total: 3,089 and 107 deaths [source] [source]
    Among the 2,706 active cases, 1,344 (50%) are hospitalized, 295 of which (representing 11% of active cases) are in intensive care.
    Among the 383 closed cases, 276 (72%) have recovered, 107 (28%) have died.
    All schools and universities in Italy closed until March 15 in an effort to contain the spread of coronavirus. [source]
  • First 2 cases in Hungary: two Iranian students who are asymptomatic but have been transported to St. Laszlo Hospital, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán announced. [source]
  • 22 new cases in Sweden: in Stockholm, Värmland, Västra Götaland, Örebro county and in Skåne.
    he risk of an outbreak in Sweden is judged as “moderate.” All cases in Sweden as of earlier today were linked to recent travel abroad (‘import case’) or contact with a confirmed import case. [source]Sweden’s Public Health Agency expands its list of regions in Italy where recent travelers are advised to be vigilant about possible symptoms to include Aosta Valley, Liguria, Trentino-Alto Adige, Friuli Venezia Giulia and Tuscany. [source]
  • 63 new cases and 1 new death in Spain. [source] [source]
  • 59 new cases in Germany [source]
  • 73 new cases in France [source]
  • 36 new cases in the UK: at least 29 were infected abroad. [source]
  • 23 new cases in Norway: many are related to outbreaks abroad, mainly in Italy. [source] [source]
  • 12 new cases in Iceland:
    6 new cases [source]
    2
    had come from Verona in northern Italy [source]
    2 had traveled from Austria through Munich.
    2: a male and a female in their 60s who also returned from Verona, Italy through Munich. “They have what can be called traditional flu symptoms, not very sick” [source]
  • 2 new cases and 1 new recovery in Romania. The first of the new cases, asymptomatic, is the 16-years-old nephew of the 47-year-old man from Timisoara diagnosed with coronavirus yesterday. [source] [source]
  • 15 new cases in the Netherlands [source]
  • 5 new cases in Denmark including the first in the Faroe Islands: a man who had been at a conference in Paris and returned on Feb. 24. [source]
  • 5 new cases in San Marino, bringing the total to 15, of which 3 (aged 81, 80, and 76 years old) are in critical condition [source]
  • 3 new cases in the Czech Republic: 2 are relatives of an infected case in Děčín, 1 is a woman from Prague. [source]
  • 2 new cases in Greece:
    – a person who had traveled to Israel and Egypt. He is hospitalized in Patras. [source]
    – the husband of the previously confirmed case. [source]
  • 10 new cases in Belgium, 9 of which returned from a trip to northern Italy and are now isolated at home after developing an upper respiratory infection with a relatively mild flu-like condition. 1 patient, who had not traveled but is a contact of a previous case who had traveled to Venice, developed a more severe respiratory infection and was therefore admitted to the Saint-Pierre hospital in Brussels. [source]
    The European Defense Agency (EDA) in Brussels has confirmed that one of its employees has tested positive after returning last week from a trip to Italy, where the official had a meeting with around 30 officials from other EU institutions. EDA has canceled all scheduled meetings at its premises until March 13. [source]
  • 1st case in Poland: a person who came from Germany and is now hospitalized in Zielona Góra (Lubusz Voivodeship) in good condition. All contacts have been placed into home quarantine. 584 tests have been performed in the country. [source]
  • 2 new cases in Portugal: a 44-year-old man who came from Italy and is hospitalized at the São João Hospital, in Porto in stable condition and a woman in her 40s who had also traveled to Italy and is hospitalized in Lisbon. [source] [source]
  • 35 new cases in Switzerland [source]
  • 2 new cases in Belarus, briging the total to 6: 4 in Minsk and 2 in the Vitebsk Region. More than 5,000 tests have been carried out [source]
  • 2 new cases in Scotland (UK) [source]
  • 5 new cases in Austria [source]MIDDLE EAST
  • 1 new case in the United Arab Emirates: a 16-year old girl in Dubai [source]
  • 1 new case in Saudi Arabia: a Saudi citizen who had traveled to Iran [source]
  • 3 new cases in Oman: 1 Omani citizen, 2 Iranian citizens. [source]
  • 2 new deaths and 3 new cases in Iraq [source] [source] [source]
  • 2 new cases in Lebanon [source]
  • 3 new cases in Bahrain, bringing the total in the country to 52, including 1 recovered. [source]
  • 586 new cases, 15 new deaths, and 117 new recoveries in Iran [source]
  • 3 new cases in Israel: one of the patients returned from Italy on Feb. 29 and all three have been quarantined. [source]AFRICA
  • 2 new cases in Senegal [source]
  • 9 new cases in Algeria, bringing the total in the country to 17 [source]OCEANIA
  • 1 new case in New Zealand [source]
  • 1 new death in Australia (NSW): a 95-year old woman. It’s the 2nd death in Australia. [source] and 14 new cases including: [source]
    in South Australia:
    – a 40-year old woman who had visited Iran and a 24-year old woman. [source]
    – an eight-month-old baby (youngest coronavirus case in Australia) a day after the baby’s mother tested positive to the disease. “The child is well, and both mother and baby are doing well in that facility,” Chief Public Health Officer Nicola Spurrier said. [source]
    – in Northern Territory: a 52-year-old tourist currently in isolation in Royal Darwin Hospital. [source]
    – in Queensland: a 26-year old man from Logan who had recently traveled to Iran. [source] 

    ASIA

  • 2 new cases in Singapore. [source]
  • 2 new cases in Hong Kong: [source]
    – a 43-year-old man, who is the “master” of a Buddhist worship hall in North Point, where 16 people were infected previously.
    – a 57-year-old female domestic helper of two previously confirmed patients, who lived in southern Hong Kong Island.
  • 38 new cases in Japan [source] [source] [source] [source] [source] [source]
  • 14 new cases in Malaysia, all associated with a local cluster linked to case #26. So far, 21 out of the 50 cases have been linked to this cluster: 16 close contacts and 5 secondary contacts. [source]
  • 22 new cases in India, including a group of 15 Italian tourists [source] [source]
  • 119 new cases, 38 new deaths (37 in Hubei) and 2,652 new discharges occurred in China on March 3, as reported by the National Health Commission (NHC) of China. [source]
  • 435 new cases and 2 deaths in South Korea, including a 86 years old woman who had tested positive on Feb. 26. [source] [source] [source] [source]
 
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  1. DonG (skeptic) Coolidge
    DonG (skeptic)
    @DonG

    This tracking is becoming a full-time job and looks to be growing to an untrackable level.   The deaths from “flu” is 0.1% and about 16,000 so far this year.  It is more precisely “flu-like”, since there is not an effort to test people that die from complications of something that looks like the flu.  There are too many cases.  As COVID-19 grows the cases will merge as it is tough to differentiate between the two without a specific test or cat scan.  I think it is worth testing and tracking, since one (HxNy) can be vaccinated and the other (corona) cannot.

    • #1
  2. MarciN Member
    MarciN
    @MarciN

    The death rate numbers cannot be believed right now. There are too many variables.

    If a person has a confirmed C0vid-19 infection and that person dies during that time that the confirmed infection was present in his or her body, then that person is being counted as dying from the C0vid-19 infection. But as anyone who has ever cared for an older or disabled person knows, the health picture grows increasingly complicated at the end. The factors affecting the outcome pile up and can be impossible to sort out.

    The other influence on these numbers that cannot be accurately captured in the statistics is what would have happened had less treatment been available. I guess what I’m trying to say is that the health care systems have been saving millions of lives worldwide, at their own expense and risk. These patients would be dead were it not for the merciful help they have received from their doctors.

    I read a terribly sad story about a doctor in China who is suffering from exhaustion in every way and has lost both of her parents during this siege of the Covid-19 monster. They are having to make horrible choices as to protecting their friends and families:

    Driving one evening in Wuhan, China, last month, Zhang Xiaochun pulled her car to the side of the road. She was on the verge of a breakdown.

    She’d been working nonstop for days at the center of China’s coronavirus outbreak, where she is a doctor. Both of her parents had Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, as did many of her colleagues. The number of sick and dying was climbing. And on this day, Dr. Zhang had forgotten about her 9-year-old daughter, who was home alone and scared—and who, at that moment, wasn’t picking up the phone.

    Dr. Zhang’s eyes welled up, but she had no energy to cry. “My tears wouldn’t flow,” she said in an interview on Feb. 18.

    Around the world, doctors are being stretched to the limit. Short on supplies and sleep, they’re being asked to stop a global pandemic that no one fully understands. Adding to that strain, they’re risking their own health while they diagnose cases and attend to sick patients—along with the health of their spouses, children and other close family members.

    . . .

    In China, more than 3,000 doctors have been infected, according to official data, and at least 22 have died. Some medical professionals believe the numbers are even higher, adding uncertainty for doctors elsewhere confronting the virus. Untold numbers of family members have fallen ill.

    Chinese doctors are working shifts of 10 hours or more. Many stay in the same hazmat suits the entire time, without food, water or bathroom breaks. Disrobing to eat or go to the bathroom could risk exposure. Medical workers are requesting psychological help to try to deal with the stress.

    [comment continues in comment 3]

    • #2
  3. MarciN Member
    MarciN
    @MarciN

    [comment continued from comment 2]

    There is a little bit of hope in China in terms of rallying help for the hospital doctors and staffs (from the same WSJ article cited above):

    Doctors in China say conditions have improved significantly since the early days of the outbreak. Roughly 42,000 medical staff from around the country have descended upon Wuhan and the surrounding Hubei province to provide relief. That includes around 4,000 military doctors in one of China’s largest-ever mobilizations of military medical resources.

    Wuhan has 53,000 beds in hospitals and temporary medical and quarantine facilities for treating patients with the coronavirus, with a goal of adding 17,000 more, according to an official media briefing on Feb. 20. Crowds and lines at fever wards have subsided as the rate of infections has slowed. Yet around 100 new cases are still emerging in Hubei province every day. An exhibit hall-turned-hospital that Zhongnan Hospital oversees had just one CT scanning machine during a recent tour by officials, according to state media.

    But we have a long way to go. 

    I pray this bug dies in 70 degree air temperatures. 

    • #3
  4. Roderic Coolidge
    Roderic
    @rhfabian

    I appreciate these reports.  Very informative.

    The first case in my area was reported yesterday.

    I suspect that it’s as you say, there are a lot of unreported, undetected cases out there.

    Half of my department is out with respiratory illness, but they don’t want to get tested.

    I suspect that people only come forward for medical care and testing when they start having trouble breathing.  Pneumonia is probably only seen in a minority of cases.

    • #4
  5. EHerring Coolidge
    EHerring
    @EHerring

    I am resigned that a second wave of virus, first being seasonal flu, is spreading. Viruses always do. I will take the normal precautions and hope for the best. If my grandkids become sick and must stay home from school, I will keep them, as I always do, and hope for the best. I am not panicking. I refuse to watch news on TV because it isn’t helpful. I have rarely gotten the flu shot these last ten years but will be more serious about it as I grow older. Probably the best thing I can do is exercise more. 

    It amazes me that the Dems remain supportive of open borders. These are the same Dems that condemn westerners for importing smallpox and other diseases into the “New World” as if it were intentional. 

    This, too, will pass, but not before some die, sadly, just like the flu. 

    • #5
  6. DonG (skeptic) Coolidge
    DonG (skeptic)
    @DonG

    Roderic (View Comment):
    Half of my department is out with respiratory illness, but they don’t want to get tested.

    wait!  what?  Half!?!?  That’s a cluster.  Y’all deserve your own dot on the global map.

    • #6
  7. Roderic Coolidge
    Roderic
    @rhfabian

    DonG (skeptic) (View Comment):

    Roderic (View Comment):
    Half of my department is out with respiratory illness, but they don’t want to get tested.

    wait! what? Half!?!? That’s a cluster. Y’all deserve your own dot on the global map.

    They all think it’s nothing, and they are probably right since they don’t have fevers, but I wonder.

    • #7
  8. Kozak Member
    Kozak
    @Kozak

    Roderic (View Comment):

    DonG (skeptic) (View Comment):

    Roderic (View Comment):
    Half of my department is out with respiratory illness, but they don’t want to get tested.

    wait! what? Half!?!? That’s a cluster. Y’all deserve your own dot on the global map.

    They all think it’s nothing, and they are probably right since they don’t have fevers, but I wonder.

    Odds are that currently  no will test them even if they ask.  We still don’t have nearly enough test kits.

    • #8
  9. Tedley Member
    Tedley
    @Tedley

    Heres an unfortunate reason to expect this to spread further in the US. 

    • #9
  10. Rodin Member
    Rodin
    @Rodin

    Timely prose from Victor Davis Hanson: What we don’t know about the coronavirus is what scares us

    • #10
  11. Rodin Member
    Rodin
    @Rodin

    Rough seas ahead for cruise ships. This link contains multiple stories regarding different ships and the problems being created by COVID-19.

    • #11
  12. ctlaw Coolidge
    ctlaw
    @ctlaw

    Rodin (View Comment):

    Rough seas ahead for cruise ships. This link contains multiple stories regarding different ships and the problems being created by COVID-19.

    Bad link

    • #12
  13. ctlaw Coolidge
    ctlaw
    @ctlaw

    The cruise lines need to offer special millennials-only cruises.

    Either, given their robust immune systems, they get a bargain. Or…

    • #13
  14. Kozak Member
    Kozak
    @Kozak

     

    • #14
  15. EHerring Coolidge
    EHerring
    @EHerring

    Tedley (View Comment):

    Heres an unfortunate reason to expect this to spread further in the US.

    Since there isn’t a cure, and since countries that have been running more tests haven’t stopped the virus, I am not sure what the point is.  We don’t have enough kits no matter what to test people with no symptoms. The big issue seems to be people are contagious before they have symptoms. It could be that twice the number are infected here and we don’t know it because it is mild in the younger people. Seems the canaries are age and underlying health issues.

    • #15
  16. DonG (skeptic) Coolidge
    DonG (skeptic)
    @DonG

    Rodin (View Comment):

    Timely prose from Victor Davis Hanson: What we don’t know about the coronavirus is what scares us

    If it turns out that COVID-19 is about as deadly as seasonal flu without vaccines, how long does it take for the excitement to die down?  What if it is double?  

    • #16
  17. Roderic Coolidge
    Roderic
    @rhfabian

    Kozak (View Comment):

    It’s a hard to break that habit.

    • #17
  18. MarciN Member
    MarciN
    @MarciN
    • #18
  19. Rodin Member
    Rodin
    @Rodin

    ctlaw (View Comment):

    Rodin (View Comment):

    Rough seas ahead for cruise ships. This link contains multiple stories regarding different ships and the problems being created by COVID-19.

    Bad link

    Corrected. Thx @ctlaw.

     

    • #19
  20. Jules PA Inactive
    Jules PA
    @JulesPA

    Rodin (View Comment):

    Timely prose from Victor Davis Hanson: What we don’t know about the coronavirus is what scares us

    This.^

    • #20
  21. JosePluma Coolidge
    JosePluma
    @JosePluma

    Rodin: But the problem remains that while we know the numerator (for the most part) we really don’t know the denominator.

    Exactly.  The mortality rate is 3.4% of the patients who have been tested and are positive.  What is the actual mortality rate?  No one knows, but it’s less than 3.4 %

    • #21
  22. DonG (skeptic) Coolidge
    DonG (skeptic)
    @DonG

    DonG (skeptic) (View Comment):

    Rodin (View Comment):

    Timely prose from Victor Davis Hanson: What we don’t know about the coronavirus is what scares us

    If it turns out that COVID-19 is about as deadly as seasonal flu without vaccines, how long does it take for the excitement to die down? What if it is double?

    Every year 700 million people have a flu-like disease.  Concentrated in about 4 months that is probably 5 million people come down with the flu.  Another 5 million recover from the flu they got the week before.  Meanwhile about 1200 a day are diagnosed with COVID-19, because there were sick enough and had known exposure and got tested.  How many of the 5 million actually recovered from COVID-19?  It might be a lot.  It could be 10 times the number diagnosed, which means the case-fatality rate is higher, but comparable to season flu.

    This is interesting.

    In the 1918–1919 pandemic, which stands out for its high mortality rate, although perhaps 10% to 15% of deaths were attributed to acute respiratory distress syndrome, many if not most of fatal cases are believed to have occurred because of secondary bacterial complications. Had no other aspect of modern medicine but antibiotics been available in 1918, there seems good reason to believe that the severity of this pandemic would have been far reduced.

    Historical influenza mortality data contain many relevant implications for influenza vaccination campaigns. The overall decline in influenza-attributed mortality over the 20th century cannot be the result of influenza vaccination, because vaccination did not become available until the 1940s and was not widely used until the late 1980s.19 This rapid decline, which commenced around the end of World War II, points to the possibility that social changes led to a change in the ecology of influenza viruses.

    I found that declining mortality rates occurred simultaneously with expanded influenza vaccine coverage since 1980, especially for the elderly (65 years and older).19 However, recent research suggests that vaccination is an unlikely explanation of mortality trends. A 2005 US National Institutes of Health study of over 30 influenza seasons “could not correlate increasing vaccination coverage after 1980 with declining mortality rates in any age group.”19(p265) Other research has reviewed available international studies of inactivated influenza vaccine effectiveness and efficacy. One study concluded that “evidence from systematic reviews shows that inactivated vaccines have little or no effect on the effects measured.”20(p915) Considered in light of the data presented here, these studies imply that other causes–such as an improvement in living conditions or naturally acquired immunity from similar strains of influenza virus–may have been partially responsible for the declining trends in recorded influenza mortality.

    An external file that holds a picture, illustration, etc. Object name is Doshi_F2_rev3.jpg

    • #22
  23. JosePluma Coolidge
    JosePluma
    @JosePluma

    Rodin (View Comment):

    Timely prose from Victor Davis Hanson: What we don’t know about the coronavirus is what scares us

    “The coronavirus threat and the unfounded hysteria that has accompanied it will pass.”

    VDH also points out the disease risk from the third-world conditions in some of our “major” cities.  I’d add the unregulated third-world conditions coming across the borders.  Of course, those can’t be blamed on Orange Man Bad, so no panic.

    • #23
  24. EHerring Coolidge
    EHerring
    @EHerring

    If cruise ships are being harassed so, even those without the virus, how long before US theme parks get the hammer? I would take a reduced price cruise that had no port calls without hesitation. Would rather stare at the ocean than tanzinite and tshirts.

    • #24
  25. ctlaw Coolidge
    ctlaw
    @ctlaw

    EHerring (View Comment):

    If cruise ships are being harassed so, even those without the virus, how long before US theme parks get the hammer? I would take a reduced price cruise that had no port calls without hesitation. Would rather stare at the ocean than tanzinite and tshirts.

    https://www.wdwinfo.com/news-stories/new-sun-fun-discount-offers-up-to-25-savings-on-rooms-this-spring-summer-at-disney-world/

    https://www.wdwinfo.com/news-stories/disney-cruise-line-discounts-and-special-offers-for-the-week-of-march-2-2020/

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-cheapest-time-to-visit-disneyland-and-walt-disney-world-is-happening-soon-2020-02-14

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-leaves-cruise-industry-with-canceled-trips-and-half-empty-ships-11583330402

    https://media.thinknum.com/articles/how-cruise-prices-are-being-affected-by-coronavirus-fears/

     

    • #25
  26. EHerring Coolidge
    EHerring
    @EHerring

    ctlaw (View Comment):

    EHerring (View Comment):

    If cruise ships are being harassed so, even those without the virus, how long before US theme parks get the hammer? I would take a reduced price cruise that had no port calls without hesitation. Would rather stare at the ocean than tanzinite and tshirts.

    https://www.wdwinfo.com/news-stories/new-sun-fun-discount-offers-up-to-25-savings-on-rooms-this-spring-summer-at-disney-world/

    https://www.wdwinfo.com/news-stories/disney-cruise-line-discounts-and-special-offers-for-the-week-of-march-2-2020/

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-cheapest-time-to-visit-disneyland-and-walt-disney-world-is-happening-soon-2020-02-14

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-leaves-cruise-industry-with-canceled-trips-and-half-empty-ships-11583330402

    https://media.thinknum.com/articles/how-cruise-prices-are-being-affected-by-coronavirus-fears/

     

    I booked my 2021 Iceland cruise three weeks too early.

    • #26
  27. Hugh Member
    Hugh
    @Hugh

    EHerring (View Comment):

    ctlaw (View Comment):

    EHerring (View Comment):

    If cruise ships are being harassed so, even those without the virus, how long before US theme parks get the hammer? I would take a reduced price cruise that had no port calls without hesitation. Would rather stare at the ocean than tanzinite and tshirts.

    https://www.wdwinfo.com/news-stories/new-sun-fun-discount-offers-up-to-25-savings-on-rooms-this-spring-summer-at-disney-world/

    https://www.wdwinfo.com/news-stories/disney-cruise-line-discounts-and-special-offers-for-the-week-of-march-2-2020/

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-cheapest-time-to-visit-disneyland-and-walt-disney-world-is-happening-soon-2020-02-14

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-leaves-cruise-industry-with-canceled-trips-and-half-empty-ships-11583330402

    https://media.thinknum.com/articles/how-cruise-prices-are-being-affected-by-coronavirus-fears/

     

    I booked my 2021 Iceland cruise three weeks too early.

    Lucky.  I’m supposed to leave for Zambia in April.

    • #27
  28. Kozak Member
    Kozak
    @Kozak

    Here’s some info from an ICU physician in Milan Italy at the epicenter of the Italian outbreak…

    • #28
  29. Eleanor Member
    Eleanor
    @Eleanor

    Rodin,

    Thank you for posting and updating this information. 

    • #29
  30. MarciN Member
    MarciN
    @MarciN

    I guess I’m not the only person wondering about this. I just typed the query into Google “Did SARS break up over the summertime?” and this article from the Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics came right up (meaning it is a frequent query), and this is their answer about the Covid-19 virus possibly slowing down:

    Will COVID-19 go away on its own in warmer weather?

    Marc Lipsitch, DPhil
    Professor of Epidemiology and Director, Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health

    (tl;dr) Probably not.

    These are the concluding paragraphs:

    This leads us to the last point:

    Even seasonal infections can happen “out of season” when they are new.
    New viruses have a temporary but important advantage – few or no individuals in the population are immune to them.  Old viruses, which have been in the population for longer, operate on a thinner margin — most individuals are immune, and they have to make do with transmitting among the few who aren’t. In simple terms, viruses that have been around for a long time can make a living — spread through the population — only when the conditions are the most favorable, in this case in winter.

    The consequence is that new viruses — like pandemic influenza — can spread outside the normal season for their longer-established cousins. For example in 2009, the pandemic started in April-May (well outside of flu season), quieted in the summer (perhaps because of the importance of children in transmission of flu), and then rebounded in September-October, before the start of normal flu season. Seasonality does not constrain pandemic viruses the way it does old ones. This pattern is common for flu pandemics.

    So in summary:
    For the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, we have reason to expect that like other betacoronaviruses, it may transmit somewhat more efficiently in winter than summer, though we don’t know the mechanism(s) responsible. The size of the change is expected to be modest, and not enough to stop transmission on its own.  Based on the analogy of pandemic flu, we expect that SARS-CoV-2, as a virus new to humans, will face less immunity and thus transmit more readily even outside of the winter season. Changing seasons and school vacation may help, but are unlikely to stop transmission. Urgent for effective policy is to determine if children are important transmitters, in which case school closures may help slow transmission, or not, in which case resources would be wasted in such closures.

    • #30
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