Super Tuesday Updates

 

The first few states were called, but it’s time for a complete Super Tuesday list.

State/Territory Delegates at Stake Projected Winner
Alabama 52 Biden
American Samoa 6 Bloomberg
Arkansas 31 Biden
California 415 Sanders
Colorado 67 Sanders
Maine 24 Biden
Massachusetts 91 Biden
Minnesota 75 Biden
North Carolina 110 Biden
Oklahoma 37 Biden
Tennessee 64 Biden
Texas 228 Biden
Utah 29 Sanders
Vermont 16 Sanders
Virginia 99 Biden

Results updated Wednesday, Noon ET.

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  1. Cato Rand Inactive
    Cato Rand
    @CatoRand

    Following up on my last comment, according to the AP:

    49/52 delegates have been allocated for Alabama; for

    Arkansas it’s 31/31

    California it’s 303/415

    Colorado it’s 39/66

    Maine it’s 24/24

    Massachusetts it’s 91/91

    Minnesota it’s 75/75

    North Carolina it’s 103/110

    Oklahoma it’s 37/37

    Tennessee it’s 62/64

    Texas it’s 228/228

    Utah it’s 16/29

    Vermont it’s 16/16

    Virginia it’s 99/99

    And Biden leads 627 to 551 according to AP.  I note that there are a lot less non-CA delegates unallocated than I thought when I made my off the cuff comment above (I was behind, hadn’t looked in awhile) and that most are in states Bernie won (CA, CO and UT), so I’d definitely expect tightening from here.  But I still think some of those will go to Biden, and maybe Bloomberg, so it still looks quite probable to me that Bernie won’t make up a 76 delegate deficit.

    • #31
  2. Cato Rand Inactive
    Cato Rand
    @CatoRand

    Brian Watt (View Comment):

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    Brian Watt (View Comment):

    “Wonky” defined – California, I have come to learn this morning, doesn’t award delegates based on the overall statewide results of the primary election but upon the results of each of its voting districts. This is the reason it’s taking so long to award delegates to any of the candidates and it means that if Bloomberg or Klobuchar or Steyer or Buttigieg won more than 15% in any given district then they may be awarded delegates…thus eating into the number of delegates that either Sanders or Biden would get.

    Given all this, Bernie may not get the delegates to overcome Biden’s national delegate count by the time that all of California’s delegates are assigned.

    Very helpful. It’s a point generally lacking in all of the MSM coverage, though, which still seems intended to anoint “Comeback Kid” Biden.

    Yep. Even Luke Thompson, the guest on the last Ricochet podcast (#485) did not seem to be aware of this distinction when considering how California is different than the way other states allocate delegates because I believe he makes a comment that infers that the other candidates would have to achieve over 15% statewide to be awarded delegates which is not the case.

    Most states (I think all, but am not positive) award some delegates based on districts and some statewide.  Most often it’s congressional districts but there’s some variation.  In Texas, for example, it’s by state senate district.

    • #32
  3. Cato Rand Inactive
    Cato Rand
    @CatoRand

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    Cato Rand (View Comment):

    Brian Watt (View Comment):

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    Brian Watt (View Comment):

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    Brian Watt (View Comment):

    Sanders still will be the frontrunner when all the Super Tuesday votes are certified. Look at the current ratio of Bernie to Biden delegates that Real Clear Politics is reporting for California. Now consider that California is all but counted if you look at my earlier comment #19 above. If this delegate ratio holds, Bernie ends up with the most delegates going into the next round of primary contests…maybe by 100 or more.

    [Edit graphic]

    Should I be conspiratorial about the slow manner in which Sanders’ California delegates are actually being attributed to him in media delegate counts today? Virtually every report that I’ve seen shows Biden in the delegate lead, in keeping with the “Biden comes back” tenor of the reporting. As you point out, when all of the California delegates are properly distributed, Bernie remains in the lead. But that apparently doesn’t sit well with MSM reporting to this point.

    The only person who has made reference to Sanders’ eventual delegate advantage after California has been counted that I’ve see in Karl Rove on Fox News. Everyone else seems to be moving on…”Super Tuesday? That was SOOOO yesterday.”

    What I also found amazing is that no one is mentioned Hunter Biden at all and Joe Biden’s possible involvement in the Burisma corruption scandal. Almost as though Hunter Biden didn’t exist anymore.

    Worth noting that practically everybody on the tube–including Fox–is basing their programming on the assumption that Biden is the nominee–and no mention of delegate count when everything is counted. I almost don’t blame the Bernie people for being PO’d.

    Yeah…something’s wonky. Real Clear Politics shows 92% of the vote counted in California but only 271 delegates out of 415 allocated. There seems to be a disconnect somewhere.

    I think you’ll find that for a lot of states. It’s not just California that has unallocated delegates. I’m not sure why although I think it has something to do with the state wide delegates not being split up until all votes are in. And as a result, I’m not sure those who are saying Bernie will have the lead are right. Biden’s going to get some of those unallocated CA votes and he’s going to get more votes than Bernie from the other states.

    Yes. My point is more the converse. I’m not sure how people (almost all, on fact) are focusing on Biden as being in the lead with any more certainty that could be attributable to Bernie. The California situation, at minimum, lends an air of uncertainty to the whole thing. While Biden should continue to pick up delegates, Bernie is still projected to win the state, which means he should pick up delegates commensurate with winning.

     

    Agreed.

    • #33
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