Super Tuesday Updates

 

The first few states were called, but it’s time for a complete Super Tuesday list.

State/Territory Delegates at Stake Projected Winner
Alabama 52 Biden
American Samoa 6 Bloomberg
Arkansas 31 Biden
California 415 Sanders
Colorado 67 Sanders
Maine 24 Biden
Massachusetts 91 Biden
Minnesota 75 Biden
North Carolina 110 Biden
Oklahoma 37 Biden
Tennessee 64 Biden
Texas 228 Biden
Utah 29 Sanders
Vermont 16 Sanders
Virginia 99 Biden

Results updated Wednesday, Noon ET.

Published in General
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  1. Brian Watt Inactive
    Brian Watt
    @BrianWatt

    No truth to the rumor that Mike Bloomberg will end his candidacy and instead run for governor of American Samoa. None whatsoever. Move along.

    • #1
  2. Matt Bartle Member
    Matt Bartle
    @MattBartle

    It’s going to be Biden’s night, isn’t it? The Comeback Codger.

    • #2
  3. Brian Watt Inactive
    Brian Watt
    @BrianWatt

    One thing to watch, and we may not know until tomorrow or the next day, is California’s results…because for the first time California permitted early voting by mail, and hundreds of thousands of Californians may have cast votes for Buttigieg and Klobuchar before they announced their departure from the race and their support for Biden…thus taking away a crucial amount of prospective delegates for Joe. Sanders was already expected to win California…but he may capture a much greater number of the delegates because of the early voting.

    • #3
  4. Brian Watt Inactive
    Brian Watt
    @BrianWatt

    Matt Bartle (View Comment):

    It’s going to be Biden’s night, isn’t it? The Comeback Codger.

    Are you saying that American Samoa is not a bellwether?

    • #4
  5. Cato Rand Inactive
    Cato Rand
    @CatoRand

    I guess the one thing we learned is that for $100 million per, you can get a handful of delegates out of American Samoa.  You think Nanny B is feeling a little silly about now?

    • #5
  6. tigerlily Member
    tigerlily
    @tigerlily

    Brian Watt (View Comment):

    Matt Bartle (View Comment):

    It’s going to be Biden’s night, isn’t it? The Comeback Codger.

    Are you saying that American Samoa is not a bellwether?

    Sure, Guam and the Marianas are in the bag now.

    • #6
  7. Brian Watt Inactive
    Brian Watt
    @BrianWatt

    Depending on the remaining districts reporting in her own home state of Massachusetts, it looks like Warren is done and will likely exit the race tonight.

    • #7
  8. Brian Watt Inactive
    Brian Watt
    @BrianWatt

    8 votes currently separate Biden and Sanders in Maine.

    • #8
  9. Brian Watt Inactive
    Brian Watt
    @BrianWatt

    Matt Bartle (View Comment):

    It’s going to be Biden’s night, isn’t it? The Comeback Codger.

    If Sanders garners around 300 out of California’s 415 available delegates, that spells big trouble for Joe Biden in the coming days. Sanders likely wins San Francisco and other Bay Area districts (Marin, San Carlos, Palo Alto), Sacramento, though he may split votes in various sectors of Southern California.

    • #9
  10. JamesSalerno Coolidge
    JamesSalerno
    @JamesSalerno

    How does voting in presidential elections in American Samoa work? They don’t get any electoral votes, do they?

    Part of me is happy that Sanders won’t be getting the nomination because while I wanted to see a full-on capitalism vs. communism battle to make everyone show their true colors, it’s also pretty gross if someone like Sanders was an actual mainstream nominee and not some third party eccentric loser. Biden/Trump debates will be fun though. 

    • #10
  11. Al French Moderator
    Al French
    @AlFrench

    Brian Watt (View Comment):

    No truth to the rumor that Mike Bloomberg will end his candidacy and instead run for governor of American Samoa. None whatsoever. Move along.

    I like your new avatar.

    • #11
  12. Brian Watt Inactive
    Brian Watt
    @BrianWatt

    Al French (View Comment):

    Brian Watt (View Comment):

    No truth to the rumor that Mike Bloomberg will end his candidacy and instead run for governor of American Samoa. None whatsoever. Move along.

    I like your new avatar.

    Thanks. Avatars need protection from time to time.

    • #12
  13. Lois Lane Coolidge
    Lois Lane
    @LoisLane

    How can they call California when less than 7% of the precincts have reported?

    • #13
  14. Brian Watt Inactive
    Brian Watt
    @BrianWatt

    If Sanders is the eventual nominee…California is definitely in play.

    • #14
  15. Brian Watt Inactive
    Brian Watt
    @BrianWatt

    Interesting to note…the number shown in the calculator is the vote tally for Buttigieg+Klobuchar+Steyer…which for the most part is the result of votes cast before those voters knew that each candidate had dropped out of the race. If a good portion of those votes were to have gone to Biden, his showing in California would have been better. It’s looking though, if the current trend continues that Bernie will get the lion’s share of delegates and may, after all the California votes are counted still be the national frontrunner for the Democratic Party.

    • #15
  16. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    Way to go Samoa!  Where’s all the MSM talk about “Bloomentum”?

    • #16
  17. Kozak Member
    Kozak
    @Kozak

    Cato Rand (View Comment):

    I guess the one thing we learned is that for $100 million per, you can get a handful of delegates out of American Samoa. You think Nanny B is feeling a little silly about now?

    Jeb! has to be breathing a sigh of relief as his record for most spending/ least result is being crushed.

    • #17
  18. Kozak Member
    Kozak
    @Kozak

    Brian Watt (View Comment):

    Depending on the remaining districts reporting in her own home state of Massachusetts, it looks like Warren is done and will likely exit the race tonight.

    I bet she doesn’t exit.  Orders from the DNC to stay in and hamper Bernie!

     

    • #18
  19. Brian Watt Inactive
    Brian Watt
    @BrianWatt

    This morning’s results in California:

    • #19
  20. Brian Watt Inactive
    Brian Watt
    @BrianWatt

    The Democrat convention will be fun.

    • #20
  21. Brian Watt Inactive
    Brian Watt
    @BrianWatt

    Sanders still will be the frontrunner when all the Super Tuesday votes are certified. Look at the current ratio of Bernie to Biden delegates that Real Clear Politics is reporting for California. Now consider that California is all but counted if you look at my earlier comment #19 above. If this delegate ratio holds, Bernie ends up with the most delegates going into the next round of primary contests…maybe by 100 or more.

    • #21
  22. Hoyacon Member
    Hoyacon
    @Hoyacon

    Brian Watt (View Comment):

    Sanders still will be the frontrunner when all the Super Tuesday votes are certified. Look at the current ratio of Bernie to Biden delegates that Real Clear Politics is reporting for California. Now consider that California is all but counted if you look at my earlier comment #19 above. If this delegate ratio holds, Bernie ends up with the most delegates going into the next round of primary contests…maybe by 100 or more.

    [Edit graphic]

    Should I be conspiratorial about the slow manner in which Sanders’ California delegates are actually being attributed to him in media delegate counts today?  Virtually every report that I’ve seen shows Biden in the delegate lead, in keeping with the “Biden comes back” tenor of the reporting.  As you point out, when all of the California delegates are properly distributed, Bernie remains in the lead.  But that apparently doesn’t sit well with MSM reporting to this point.

     

    • #22
  23. Brian Watt Inactive
    Brian Watt
    @BrianWatt

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    Brian Watt (View Comment):

    Sanders still will be the frontrunner when all the Super Tuesday votes are certified. Look at the current ratio of Bernie to Biden delegates that Real Clear Politics is reporting for California. Now consider that California is all but counted if you look at my earlier comment #19 above. If this delegate ratio holds, Bernie ends up with the most delegates going into the next round of primary contests…maybe by 100 or more.

    [Edit graphic]

    Should I be conspiratorial about the slow manner in which Sanders’ California delegates are actually being attributed to him in media delegate counts today? Virtually every report that I’ve seen shows Biden in the delegate lead, in keeping with the “Biden comes back” tenor of the reporting. As you point out, when all of the California delegates are properly distributed, Bernie remains in the lead. But that apparently doesn’t sit well with MSM reporting to this point.

    The only person who has made reference to Sanders’ eventual delegate advantage after California has been counted that I’ve see in Karl Rove on Fox News. Everyone else seems to be moving on…”Super Tuesday? That was SOOOO yesterday.”

    What I also found amazing is that no one is mentioned Hunter Biden at all and Joe Biden’s possible involvement in the Burisma corruption scandal. Almost as though Hunter Biden didn’t exist anymore.

     

    • #23
  24. Hoyacon Member
    Hoyacon
    @Hoyacon

    Brian Watt (View Comment):

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    Brian Watt (View Comment):

    Sanders still will be the frontrunner when all the Super Tuesday votes are certified. Look at the current ratio of Bernie to Biden delegates that Real Clear Politics is reporting for California. Now consider that California is all but counted if you look at my earlier comment #19 above. If this delegate ratio holds, Bernie ends up with the most delegates going into the next round of primary contests…maybe by 100 or more.

    [Edit graphic]

    Should I be conspiratorial about the slow manner in which Sanders’ California delegates are actually being attributed to him in media delegate counts today? Virtually every report that I’ve seen shows Biden in the delegate lead, in keeping with the “Biden comes back” tenor of the reporting. As you point out, when all of the California delegates are properly distributed, Bernie remains in the lead. But that apparently doesn’t sit well with MSM reporting to this point.

    The only person who has made reference to Sanders’ eventual delegate advantage after California has been counted that I’ve see in Karl Rove on Fox News. Everyone else seems to be moving on…”Super Tuesday? That was SOOOO yesterday.”

    What I also found amazing is that no one is mentioned Hunter Biden at all and Joe Biden’s possible involvement in the Burisma corruption scandal. Almost as though Hunter Biden didn’t exist anymore.

    Worth noting that practically everybody on the tube–including Fox–is basing their programming on the assumption that Biden is the nominee–and no mention of delegate count when everything is counted.  I almost don’t blame the Bernie people for being PO’d.

     

    • #24
  25. Brian Watt Inactive
    Brian Watt
    @BrianWatt

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    Brian Watt (View Comment):

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    Brian Watt (View Comment):

    Sanders still will be the frontrunner when all the Super Tuesday votes are certified. Look at the current ratio of Bernie to Biden delegates that Real Clear Politics is reporting for California. Now consider that California is all but counted if you look at my earlier comment #19 above. If this delegate ratio holds, Bernie ends up with the most delegates going into the next round of primary contests…maybe by 100 or more.

    [Edit graphic]

    Should I be conspiratorial about the slow manner in which Sanders’ California delegates are actually being attributed to him in media delegate counts today? Virtually every report that I’ve seen shows Biden in the delegate lead, in keeping with the “Biden comes back” tenor of the reporting. As you point out, when all of the California delegates are properly distributed, Bernie remains in the lead. But that apparently doesn’t sit well with MSM reporting to this point.

    The only person who has made reference to Sanders’ eventual delegate advantage after California has been counted that I’ve see in Karl Rove on Fox News. Everyone else seems to be moving on…”Super Tuesday? That was SOOOO yesterday.”

    What I also found amazing is that no one is mentioned Hunter Biden at all and Joe Biden’s possible involvement in the Burisma corruption scandal. Almost as though Hunter Biden didn’t exist anymore.

    Worth noting that practically everybody on the tube–including Fox–is basing their programming on the assumption that Biden is the nominee–and no mention of delegate count when everything is counted. I almost don’t blame the Bernie people for being PO’d.

    Yeah…something’s wonky. Real Clear Politics shows 92% of the vote counted in California but only 271 delegates out of 415 allocated. There seems to be a disconnect somewhere.

    • #25
  26. Brian Watt Inactive
    Brian Watt
    @BrianWatt

    “Wonky” defined – California, I have come to learn this morning, doesn’t award delegates based on the overall statewide results of the primary election but upon the results of each of its voting districts. This is the reason it’s taking so long to award delegates to any of the candidates and it means that if Bloomberg or Klobuchar or Steyer or Buttigieg won more than 15% in any given district then they may be awarded delegates…thus eating into the number of delegates that either Sanders or Biden would get.

    Given all this, Bernie may not get the delegates to overcome Biden’s national delegate count by the time that all of California’s delegates are assigned. 

    • #26
  27. Hoyacon Member
    Hoyacon
    @Hoyacon

    Brian Watt (View Comment):

    “Wonky” defined – California, I have come to learn this morning, doesn’t award delegates based on the overall statewide results of the primary election but upon the results of each of its voting districts. This is the reason it’s taking so long to award delegates to any of the candidates and it means that if Bloomberg or Klobuchar or Steyer or Buttigieg won more than 15% in any given district then they may be awarded delegates…thus eating into the number of delegates that either Sanders or Biden would get.

    Given all this, Bernie may not get the delegates to overcome Biden’s national delegate count by the time that all of California’s delegates are assigned.

    Very helpful.  It’s a point generally lacking in all of the MSM coverage, though, which still seems intended to anoint “Comeback Kid” Biden.

    • #27
  28. Brian Watt Inactive
    Brian Watt
    @BrianWatt

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    Brian Watt (View Comment):

    “Wonky” defined – California, I have come to learn this morning, doesn’t award delegates based on the overall statewide results of the primary election but upon the results of each of its voting districts. This is the reason it’s taking so long to award delegates to any of the candidates and it means that if Bloomberg or Klobuchar or Steyer or Buttigieg won more than 15% in any given district then they may be awarded delegates…thus eating into the number of delegates that either Sanders or Biden would get.

    Given all this, Bernie may not get the delegates to overcome Biden’s national delegate count by the time that all of California’s delegates are assigned.

    Very helpful. It’s a point generally lacking in all of the MSM coverage, though, which still seems intended to anoint “Comeback Kid” Biden.

    Yep. Even Luke Thompson, the guest on the last Ricochet podcast (#485) did not seem to be aware of this distinction when considering how California is different than the way other states allocate delegates because I believe he makes a comment that infers that the other candidates would have to achieve over 15% statewide to be awarded delegates which is not the case.

    • #28
  29. Cato Rand Inactive
    Cato Rand
    @CatoRand

    Brian Watt (View Comment):

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    Brian Watt (View Comment):

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    Brian Watt (View Comment):

    Sanders still will be the frontrunner when all the Super Tuesday votes are certified. Look at the current ratio of Bernie to Biden delegates that Real Clear Politics is reporting for California. Now consider that California is all but counted if you look at my earlier comment #19 above. If this delegate ratio holds, Bernie ends up with the most delegates going into the next round of primary contests…maybe by 100 or more.

    [Edit graphic]

    Should I be conspiratorial about the slow manner in which Sanders’ California delegates are actually being attributed to him in media delegate counts today? Virtually every report that I’ve seen shows Biden in the delegate lead, in keeping with the “Biden comes back” tenor of the reporting. As you point out, when all of the California delegates are properly distributed, Bernie remains in the lead. But that apparently doesn’t sit well with MSM reporting to this point.

    The only person who has made reference to Sanders’ eventual delegate advantage after California has been counted that I’ve see in Karl Rove on Fox News. Everyone else seems to be moving on…”Super Tuesday? That was SOOOO yesterday.”

    What I also found amazing is that no one is mentioned Hunter Biden at all and Joe Biden’s possible involvement in the Burisma corruption scandal. Almost as though Hunter Biden didn’t exist anymore.

    Worth noting that practically everybody on the tube–including Fox–is basing their programming on the assumption that Biden is the nominee–and no mention of delegate count when everything is counted. I almost don’t blame the Bernie people for being PO’d.

    Yeah…something’s wonky. Real Clear Politics shows 92% of the vote counted in California but only 271 delegates out of 415 allocated. There seems to be a disconnect somewhere.

    I think you’ll find that for a lot of states.  It’s not just California that has unallocated delegates.  I’m not sure why although I think it has something to do with the state wide delegates not being split up until all votes are in.  And as a result, I’m not sure those who are saying Bernie will have the lead are right.  Biden’s going to get some of those unallocated CA votes and he’s going to get more votes than Bernie from the other states.

    • #29
  30. Hoyacon Member
    Hoyacon
    @Hoyacon

    Cato Rand (View Comment):

    Brian Watt (View Comment):

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    Brian Watt (View Comment):

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    Brian Watt (View Comment):

    Sanders still will be the frontrunner when all the Super Tuesday votes are certified. Look at the current ratio of Bernie to Biden delegates that Real Clear Politics is reporting for California. Now consider that California is all but counted if you look at my earlier comment #19 above. If this delegate ratio holds, Bernie ends up with the most delegates going into the next round of primary contests…maybe by 100 or more.

    [Edit graphic]

    Should I be conspiratorial about the slow manner in which Sanders’ California delegates are actually being attributed to him in media delegate counts today? Virtually every report that I’ve seen shows Biden in the delegate lead, in keeping with the “Biden comes back” tenor of the reporting. As you point out, when all of the California delegates are properly distributed, Bernie remains in the lead. But that apparently doesn’t sit well with MSM reporting to this point.

    The only person who has made reference to Sanders’ eventual delegate advantage after California has been counted that I’ve see in Karl Rove on Fox News. Everyone else seems to be moving on…”Super Tuesday? That was SOOOO yesterday.”

    What I also found amazing is that no one is mentioned Hunter Biden at all and Joe Biden’s possible involvement in the Burisma corruption scandal. Almost as though Hunter Biden didn’t exist anymore.

    Worth noting that practically everybody on the tube–including Fox–is basing their programming on the assumption that Biden is the nominee–and no mention of delegate count when everything is counted. I almost don’t blame the Bernie people for being PO’d.

    Yeah…something’s wonky. Real Clear Politics shows 92% of the vote counted in California but only 271 delegates out of 415 allocated. There seems to be a disconnect somewhere.

    I think you’ll find that for a lot of states. It’s not just California that has unallocated delegates. I’m not sure why although I think it has something to do with the state wide delegates not being split up until all votes are in. And as a result, I’m not sure those who are saying Bernie will have the lead are right. Biden’s going to get some of those unallocated CA votes and he’s going to get more votes than Bernie from the other states.

    Yes.  My point is more the converse.  I’m not sure how people (almost all, in fact) are focusing on Biden as being in the lead with any more certainty that could be attributable to Bernie.   The California situation, at minimum, lends an air of uncertainty to the whole thing.  While Biden should continue to pick up delegates, Bernie is still projected to win the state, which means he should pick up a portion of delegates commensurate with winning.

    • #30
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