Day 34: COVID-19 Outside of China

 

South Korea, Italy and Iran are really facing a challenge. South Korea is about to pass the cruise ship in the number of confirmed cases with a lot more “fuel” for an epidemic than the cruise ship ever had. Italy has come from literally none a week ago to challenging Japan’s position on the listing, who has been dealing with the epidemic for weeks. Iran is, well, Iran. It’s going to get worse.

Here are the details being published at Worldometer:

ITALY OUTBREAK(Feb. 23 Updates):

  • 55 new cases in Italy, including 2 new cases in Venice, a 17-year-old male in Valtellina, and a couple in Turin who visited their child at the Regina Margherita Hospital yesterday.
  • Current total cases in Italy:
    – 90 cases in Lombardy region (including 1 death).
    – 26 in Veneto region (including 1 death).
    –   9 in Emilia Romagna region.
    –   6 in Piedmont region.
    –   3 in Rome (including 2 recoveries).
  • At least 26 patients are in critical condition.
  • 11 towns, 50,000 people, placed in lockdown.
  • Armed forces and police forces have been mobilized to form an insurmountable “health belt” around contagion areas. Roadblock violators risk up to a 3 months prison sentence.

    Schools closed in Lombardy, Veneto, and in Trentino Alto Adige regions.

    Universities closed in Piedmont and Emilia Romagna regions.

    Carnival in Venice and all sport and public events in Veneto cancelled.

    – All public and private events, including sport, cultural, and religious events in Lombardy cancelled. Movie theaters closed.

    – “I think these three cases that have no contact with a primary carrier show how this virus is now ubiquitous so, as with flu symptoms, you get it and don’t know who you got it fromsaid Veneto governon Luca Zaia who, in a separate comment, said “we are worried, drastic measures are needed.”

    – “Serious mistake was made not to quarantine people who arrived in Italy from China” said Walter Ricciardi of the WHO, adding that “within two weeks we will know if we are facing an epidemic” and advising that, for the next two weeks, people “should avoid crowded places: metro, buses, trains, schools, discos, and gyms.”

SOUTH KOREA OUTBREAK (Feb. 23 Updates):

  • 166 new cases and 4 new deaths in South Korea.
  • President Moon Jae-in raised the alert level to maximum (Level 4: Serious) thus empowering the government to lock down cities and restrict travel. “The coming few days will be a critical time for us” he said in an emergency meeting.
  • Last few days progression of total cases in South Korea:
    • Feb. 23: 602 cases (day still in progress)
    • Feb. 22: 436 cases
    • Feb. 21: 209 cases
    • Feb. 20: 111 cases
    • Feb. 19:  58 cases
    • Feb. 18:   31 cases

Elsewhere–

  • 57 new cases (55 crew members and 2 passengers, of which 52 asymptomatic) and 1 new death (a man in his 80s) from the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan.
  • 2 new deaths and 14 new cases in Iran.
  • 2 new cases in Taiwan: father an son, in their late 80s and 50s.

    – The older man, a kidney dialysis patient with chronic diseases such as hypertension and diabetes, had symptoms such as cough and runny nose on Feb. 6, developed fever and was diagnosed with pneumonia on Feb. 9, and had shortness of breath on Feb. 16, when he was transferred to the intensive care unit.

    – The son, whose brother had returned from China on Feb. 2, started showing symptoms two days prior, on Jan 31. He had a fever, runny nose and sore throat on Jan. 31, went to the clinic on Feb. 4 and, due to continuous fever, went to the emergency room on Feb. 8, where he was diagnosed with pneumonia. He returned home for independent health management, but went back to the hospital twice – on Feb. 11 and Feb. 18 – before being isolated on Feb. 21.

  • 12 new cases in Japan, including:

    – a man in his 40s living in Chiba Prefecture who, after the onset of joint and muscle pain on Feb. 12, has been on a business trip to Hiroshima and Gifu prefectures.

    – a woman in her 50s who works as a part-time school lunch attendant in Hokkaido. She had sore throat on February 15. She wore a mask, a white coat, and gloves, and carried 194 school children from the serving room to each classroom using a wagon.

  • 1 new case in Australia from the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan.
  • 18 new cases and 1 new death occurred outside of Hubei province in China on February 22, as reported by the National Health Commission (NHC) of China,
  • 630 new cases and 96 new deaths were reported by Hubei province in China for Feb. 22.

 

 

 

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  1. Clavius Thatcher
    Clavius
    @Clavius

    An interesting perspective from WUWT:

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/23/cut-thru-myths-to-see-facts-about-covid-19/

    • #31
  2. Saint Augustine Member
    Saint Augustine
    @SaintAugustine

    My daily brief analysis–here and in the next few comments.

    • #32
  3. Jules PA Inactive
    Jules PA
    @JulesPA

    ctlaw (View Comment):
    OTOH, I wodner whether the ChiComs will selectively neglect to treat coronavirus in Tibetan and Uighur populations.

    I wonder if ChiComs already divert care away from specific places and select populations.

    Plagues seem like forest fires, they come in and burn. It is horrible. The recovery is terrible and difficult. Then things grow again. 

    I want to believe there is a remnant in the USA, even in China, that can take the world back from the communist socialist nonsense. 

    I pray the Chinese people take this opportunity to take their lives back. 

    The USA too. 

     

    • #33
  4. Hammer, The Inactive
    Hammer, The
    @RyanM

    Kozak (View Comment):

    Doctor Robert (View Comment):

    DonG (skeptic) (View Comment):

    New rule of thumb is that infected is about 100X the number dead. That means Iran is vastly under reporting. China should be presumed to be fake data. ZH has this nice chart below. It makes it easy to compare the outside China v. inside China. The slope on that mountain is shocking. This thing seems to be very spreadable. Israel has blocked people from Korea after some tourists tested positive. Samsung shut down their S20 (flagship phone) factory. I don’t see how containment is possible. We can’t all take 6 months off work to self-quarantine.

    True. It looks like stupid governments have let the horse out of the barn. We can’t all take 6 months off work to self-quarantine. We can, however, assume that all people with upper respiratory syndromes have Corona, hospitalize people whose disease worsens, treat them with steroids and oxygen and albuterol and expect a 1% death rate. As with seasonal influenza, deaths have been mainly those who are already compromised.

    Maybe I’m just a dumb gynecologist, but I don’t see how this is anything more than seasonal influenza with a Wuhan twist.

    Do you really think China would put 700 million people on lock down and crater their economy for something like the flu?

    They also harvest their own citizens’ organs. It wouldn’t surprise me if they were to put 700 million on lockdown to distract from Hong Kong. It’s not a theory… I’m just not surprised by much.

     

    • #34
  5. Unsk Member
    Unsk
    @Unsk

    One more comment from me regarding Franz’s comment:“What really frightens me is that this all might lead to President Bernie Sanders.”

    Trump has to get way out in front on this. Right away. He cannot be seen to be reacting after the horse has left the barn which will be very soon.  If he just reacts like all these politicians do –  too little to late – the media will roast him alive and he will be blamed for what could be a hellacious disaster – that is if we even make it to November with our electoral system still functioning. If we are in total lockdown for months anywhere close to what China is doing it is going to get very ugly. 

    • #35
  6. MarciN Member
    MarciN
    @MarciN

    Hey everybody, did you see this hopeful news?

    Drugmaker Moderna Inc. has shipped the first batch of its rapidly developed coronavirus vaccine to U.S. government researchers, who will launch the first human tests of whether the experimental shot could help suppress the epidemic originating in China.

    Moderna on Monday sent vaccine vials from its Norwood, Mass., manufacturing plant to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in Bethesda, Md., the company said. The institute expects by the end of April to start a clinical trial of about 20 to 25 healthy volunteers, testing whether two doses of the shot are safe and induce an immune response likely to protect against infection, NIAID Director Anthony Fauci said in an interview. Initial results could become available in July or August.

    If a trial starts as planned in April, it would be about three months from vaccine design to human testing. In comparison, after an outbreak of an older coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome, in China in 2002, it took about 20 months for NIAID to get a vaccine into the first stage of human testing, according to Dr. Fauci.

    “Going into a Phase One trial within three months of getting the sequence is unquestionably the world indoor record. Nothing has ever gone that fast,” Dr. Fauci said.

    It’s new technology, so it is not a sure thing:

    It is uncertain whether Moderna’s vaccine will work because its gene-based technology hasn’t yet yielded an approved human vaccine. And even if the first study is positive, the coronavirus vaccine might not become widely available until next year because further studies and regulatory clearances will be needed, Dr. Fauci said.

    But health authorities say it is worth placing bets on these new technologies in the face of fast-moving outbreaks. Since early January, when only a few dozen cases were confirmed in central China, the virus has spread to more than 79,000 people, including more than 2,600 who have died. The vast majority of the cases are in China, according to the World Health Organization.

    Dr. Fauci said it is possible the spread of coronavirus could lessen during warmer months, but then return next winter and become a seasonal virus like the flu, making a vaccine useful even if it isn’t ready for widespread distribution until next year.

    But it’s a glimmer of positive news. :-)

    • #36
  7. MarciN Member
    MarciN
    @MarciN

    I spoke too soon. J&J (the company my husband is betting on) is closing in too! :-) Wow. :-) There’s even more hope. :-)

    • #37
  8. Saint Augustine Member
    Saint Augustine
    @SaintAugustine

    MarciN (View Comment):

    I spoke too soon. J&J (the company my husband is betting on) is closing in too! :-) Wow. :-)

    Gotta love the United States and capitalism. :-) And the sheer intelligence those two forces for good have created. :-)

    Vaccines are all over the place; it’s a good thing. It took only a few days for a university scientist in HK to announce he had one.

    I think it’s the testing on human subjects that’s the big delay, and the ethical rule that says you try it on rodents first.

    • #38
  9. MarciN Member
    MarciN
    @MarciN

    Saint Augustine (View Comment):

    MarciN (View Comment):

    I spoke too soon. J&J (the company my husband is betting on) is closing in too! :-) Wow. :-)

    Gotta love the United States and capitalism. :-) And the sheer intelligence those two forces for good have created. :-)

    Vaccines are all over the place; it’s a good thing. It took only a few days for a university scientist in HK to announce he had one.

    I think it’s the testing on human subjects that’s the big delay, and the ethical rule that says you try it on rodents first.

    I’m still excited. 

    I am thrilled by this news. :-) 

    There’s hope. 

    I have been worrying about the people living in the quarantines, just praying for a miracle. 

    • #39
  10. Saint Augustine Member
    Saint Augustine
    @SaintAugustine

    MarciN (View Comment):

    I’m still excited. 

    I am thrilled by this news. :-) 

    There’s hope. 

    I have been worrying about the people living in the quarantines, just praying for a miracle. 

    Amen.

    • #40
  11. Al French Moderator
    Al French
    @AlFrench

    Hammer, The (View Comment):

    Kozak (View Comment):

    Doctor Robert (View Comment):

    DonG (skeptic) (View Comment):

    New rule of thumb is that infected is about 100X the number dead. That means Iran is vastly under reporting. China should be presumed to be fake data. ZH has this nice chart below. It makes it easy to compare the outside China v. inside China. The slope on that mountain is shocking. This thing seems to be very spreadable. Israel has blocked people from Korea after some tourists tested positive. Samsung shut down their S20 (flagship phone) factory. I don’t see how containment is possible. We can’t all take 6 months off work to self-quarantine.

    True. It looks like stupid governments have let the horse out of the barn. We can’t all take 6 months off work to self-quarantine. We can, however, assume that all people with upper respiratory syndromes have Corona, hospitalize people whose disease worsens, treat them with steroids and oxygen and albuterol and expect a 1% death rate. As with seasonal influenza, deaths have been mainly those who are already compromised.

    Maybe I’m just a dumb gynecologist, but I don’t see how this is anything more than seasonal influenza with a Wuhan twist.

    Do you really think China would put 700 million people on lock down and crater their economy for something like the flu?

    They also harvest their own citizens’ organs. It wouldn’t surprise me if they were to put 700 million on lockdown to distract from Hong Kong. It’s not a theory… I’m just not surprised by much.

     

    Good to see you around. You’ve been missed.

    • #41
  12. Kozak Member
    Kozak
    @Kozak

    Here’s the Iranian deputy minister of health sweating and coughing at a news conference where he derided quarantines as something from  WW1.  He just got diagnosed with Corona….

    Iran’s deputy HEALTH minister tests positive for coronavirus after looking shaky and unwell – but regime still refuses to close pilgrim city as death toll rises to 15 and cases are exported around the Middle East

     

    • #42
  13. MichaelKennedy Inactive
    MichaelKennedy
    @MichaelKennedy

    ctlaw (View Comment):

    https://www.foxnews.com/health/global-outbreak-causes-pandemic-fears-after-cases-jump-in-italy-and-south-korea

    Did a delegation of Iranian bioweapons scientists spend December in Wuhan?

    I’ve been wondering about that since I heard about the Iran cases.

    • #43
  14. MichaelKennedy Inactive
    MichaelKennedy
    @MichaelKennedy

    The Chicagoboyz blog has been running daily updates.

    https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/61803.html

    It’s interesting that the CDC spokesperson, Nancy Messonnier, the sister of deputy AG Rod Rosenstein of attempted anti-Trump coup fame, seems to have lied about the number of US cases so far.

    https://imgur.com/sipV9rW

     

    • #44
  15. MarciN Member
    MarciN
    @MarciN

    MichaelKennedy (View Comment):

    The Chicagoboyz blog has been running daily updates.

    https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/61803.html

    It’s interesting that the CDC spokesperson, Nancy Messonnier, the sister of deputy AG Rod Rosenstein of attempted anti-Trump coup fame, seems to have lied about the number of US cases so far.

    https://imgur.com/sipV9rW

    1,000 cases in the United States so far? Good lord.

    Given the number of Chinese foreign students studying the United States–370,000–that 1,000 figure is certainly more plausible than the 35 number I’ve been seeing.

    • #45
  16. Kozak Member
    Kozak
    @Kozak

    MichaelKennedy (View Comment):
    Re

     

    This is also from several weeks ago.

     

    • #46
  17. Kozak Member
    Kozak
    @Kozak

    MarciN (View Comment):

    MichaelKennedy (View Comment):

    The Chicagoboyz blog has been running daily updates.

    https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/61803.html

    It’s interesting that the CDC spokesperson, Nancy Messonnier, the sister of deputy AG Rod Rosenstein of attempted anti-Trump coup fame, seems to have lied about the number of US cases so far.

    https://imgur.com/sipV9rW

    1,000 cases in the United States so far? Good lord.

    Given the number of Chinese foreign students studying the United States–370,000–that 1,000 figure is certainly more plausible than 35 number I’ve been seeing.

    Here’s the CDC’s testing algorithm ….

    No travel to China, or known close infected contact, no testing.

    If you don’t look.  You won’t find any cases….

    • #47
  18. Kozak Member
    Kozak
    @Kozak

    MichaelKennedy (View Comment):

    The Chicagoboyz blog has been running daily updates.

    https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/61803.html

    It’s interesting that the CDC spokesperson, Nancy Messonnier, the sister of deputy AG Rod Rosenstein of attempted anti-Trump coup fame, seems to have lied about the number of US cases so far.

    https://imgur.com/sipV9rW

     

    Notice.  For her buddy, one of the Select, she gives him the advice, “don’t travel”, “wear a mask”.

    For us Plebs, “no problem, wash your hands, get a flu shot”.

    • #48
  19. MichaelKennedy Inactive
    MichaelKennedy
    @MichaelKennedy

    The breakdown in public trust is going to make this much worse.  I find that I trust no one in the public media and few in government.  I don’t watch TV news, or any TV except sports and the murder channel. I have a suspicion that viewership of “the murder channel,” as I call the true crime TV shows, has gone up substantially.  When we see the History Channel start with the true crime shows, we will know that the trend is taking off.

    The US has been a high trust society for a century or more.

    https://www.quora.com/What-is-meant-by-a-high-trust-or-low-trust-society?share=1

    High Trust In such a society, actors follow broadly understood norms of behavior, supported by the rule of law. 

    Low Trust  These societies may experience high levels of corruption and inequality.

    I grew up in a high trust society even though we lived in a big city with political corruption.  (1950s Chicago)

    • #49
  20. Hammer, The Inactive
    Hammer, The
    @RyanM

    Al French (View Comment):

    Hammer, The (View Comment):

    Kozak (View Comment):

    Doctor Robert (View Comment):

    DonG (skeptic) (View Comment):

    New rule of thumb is that infected is about 100X the number dead. That means Iran is vastly under reporting. China should be presumed to be fake data. ZH has this nice chart below. It makes it easy to compare the outside China v. inside China. The slope on that mountain is shocking. This thing seems to be very spreadable. Israel has blocked people from Korea after some tourists tested positive. Samsung shut down their S20 (flagship phone) factory. I don’t see how containment is possible. We can’t all take 6 months off work to self-quarantine.

    True. It looks like stupid governments have let the horse out of the barn. We can’t all take 6 months off work to self-quarantine. We can, however, assume that all people with upper respiratory syndromes have Corona, hospitalize people whose disease worsens, treat them with steroids and oxygen and albuterol and expect a 1% death rate. As with seasonal influenza, deaths have been mainly those who are already compromised.

    Maybe I’m just a dumb gynecologist, but I don’t see how this is anything more than seasonal influenza with a Wuhan twist.

    Do you really think China would put 700 million people on lock down and crater their economy for something like the flu?

    They also harvest their own citizens’ organs. It wouldn’t surprise me if they were to put 700 million on lockdown to distract from Hong Kong. It’s not a theory… I’m just not surprised by much.

     

    Good to see you around. You’ve been missed.

    Thanks!  New job.  But I still lurk.

    • #50
  21. Snirtler Inactive
    Snirtler
    @Snirtler

    Hammer, The (View Comment):

    Al French (View Comment):

    Good to see you around. You’ve been missed.

    Thanks! New job. But I still lurk.

    Yep, you’ve been spotted and duly reported to the PIT. Ahoy there!

     

    • #51
  22. Jules PA Inactive
    Jules PA
    @JulesPA

    MichaelKennedy (View Comment):

    ctlaw (View Comment):

    https://www.foxnews.com/health/global-outbreak-causes-pandemic-fears-after-cases-jump-in-italy-and-south-korea

    Did a delegation of Iranian bioweapons scientists spend December in Wuhan?

    I’ve been wondering about that since I heard about the Iran cases.

    I wondered about that when. The stats had no cases in Iran. 

    • #52
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