Recommended by Ricochet Members Created with Sketch. Day 34: COVID-19 Outside of China

 

South Korea, Italy and Iran are really facing a challenge. South Korea is about to pass the cruise ship in the number of confirmed cases with a lot more “fuel” for an epidemic than the cruise ship ever had. Italy has come from literally none a week ago to challenging Japan’s position on the listing, who has been dealing with the epidemic for weeks. Iran is, well, Iran. It’s going to get worse.

Here are the details being published at Worldometer:

ITALY OUTBREAK(Feb. 23 Updates):

  • 55 new cases in Italy, including 2 new cases in Venice, a 17-year-old male in Valtellina, and a couple in Turin who visited their child at the Regina Margherita Hospital yesterday.
  • Current total cases in Italy:
    – 90 cases in Lombardy region (including 1 death).
    – 26 in Veneto region (including 1 death).
    – 9 in Emilia Romagna region.
    – 6 in Piedmont region.
    – 3 in Rome (including 2 recoveries).
  • At least 26 patients are in critical condition.
  • 11 towns, 50,000 people, placed in lockdown.
  • Armed forces and police forces have been mobilized to form an insurmountable “health belt” around contagion areas. Roadblock violators risk up to a 3 months prison sentence.

    Schools closed in Lombardy, Veneto, and in Trentino Alto Adige regions.

    Universities closed in Piedmont and Emilia Romagna regions.

    Carnival in Venice and all sport and public events in Veneto cancelled.

    – All public and private events, including sport, cultural, and religious events in Lombardy cancelled. Movie theaters closed.

    – “I think these three cases that have no contact with a primary carrier show how this virus is now ubiquitous so, as with flu symptoms, you get it and don’t know who you got it fromsaid Veneto governon Luca Zaia who, in a separate comment, said “we are worried, drastic measures are needed.”

    – “Serious mistake was made not to quarantine people who arrived in Italy from China” said Walter Ricciardi of the WHO, adding that “within two weeks we will know if we are facing an epidemic” and advising that, for the next two weeks, people “should avoid crowded places: metro, buses, trains, schools, discos, and gyms.”

SOUTH KOREA OUTBREAK (Feb. 23 Updates):

  • 166 new cases and 4 new deaths in South Korea.
  • President Moon Jae-in raised the alert level to maximum (Level 4: Serious) thus empowering the government to lock down cities and restrict travel. “The coming few days will be a critical time for us” he said in an emergency meeting.
  • Last few days progression of total cases in South Korea:
    • Feb. 23: 602 cases (day still in progress)
    • Feb. 22: 436 cases
    • Feb. 21: 209 cases
    • Feb. 20: 111 cases
    • Feb. 19:  58 cases
    • Feb. 18: 31 cases

Elsewhere–

  • 57 new cases (55 crew members and 2 passengers, of which 52 asymptomatic) and 1 new death (a man in his 80s) from the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan.
  • 2 new deaths and 14 new cases in Iran.
  • 2 new cases in Taiwan: father an son, in their late 80s and 50s.

    – The older man, a kidney dialysis patient with chronic diseases such as hypertension and diabetes, had symptoms such as cough and runny nose on Feb. 6, developed fever and was diagnosed with pneumonia on Feb. 9, and had shortness of breath on Feb. 16, when he was transferred to the intensive care unit.

    – The son, whose brother had returned from China on Feb. 2, started showing symptoms two days prior, on Jan 31. He had a fever, runny nose and sore throat on Jan. 31, went to the clinic on Feb. 4 and, due to continuous fever, went to the emergency room on Feb. 8, where he was diagnosed with pneumonia. He returned home for independent health management, but went back to the hospital twice – on Feb. 11 and Feb. 18 – before being isolated on Feb. 21.

  • 12 new cases in Japan, including:

    – a man in his 40s living in Chiba Prefecture who, after the onset of joint and muscle pain on Feb. 12, has been on a business trip to Hiroshima and Gifu prefectures.

    – a woman in her 50s who works as a part-time school lunch attendant in Hokkaido. She had sore throat on February 15. She wore a mask, a white coat, and gloves, and carried 194 school children from the serving room to each classroom using a wagon.

  • 1 new case in Australia from the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan.
  • 18 new cases and 1 new death occurred outside of Hubei province in China on February 22, as reported by the National Health Commission (NHC) of China,
  • 630 new cases and 96 new deaths were reported by Hubei province in China for Feb. 22.

 

 

 

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  1. DonG (skeptic) Coolidge

    New rule of thumb is that infected is about 100X the number dead. That means Iran is vastly under reporting. China should be presumed to be fake data. ZH has this nice chart below. It makes it easy to compare the outside China v. inside China. The slope on that mountain is shocking. This thing seems to be very spreadable. Israel has blocked people from Korea after some tourists tested positive. Samsung shut down their S20 (flagship phone) factory. I don’t see how containment is possible. We can’t all take 6 months off work to self-quarantine.

     

     

    • #1
    • February 23, 2020, at 8:28 AM PST
    • 5 likes
  2. 9thDistrictNeighbor Member

    Once again, communism kills.

    • #2
    • February 23, 2020, at 8:44 AM PST
    • 5 likes
  3. Jules PA Member

    Following. 

    • #3
    • February 23, 2020, at 9:27 AM PST
    • 1 like
  4. Doctor Robert Member

    DonG (skeptic) (View Comment):

    New rule of thumb is that infected is about 100X the number dead. That means Iran is vastly under reporting. China should be presumed to be fake data. ZH has this nice chart below. It makes it easy to compare the outside China v. inside China. The slope on that mountain is shocking. This thing seems to be very spreadable. Israel has blocked people from Korea after some tourists tested positive. Samsung shut down their S20 (flagship phone) factory. I don’t see how containment is possible. We can’t all take 6 months off work to self-quarantine.

    True. It looks like stupid governments have let the horse out of the barn. We can’t all take 6 months off work to self-quarantine. We can, however, assume that all people with upper respiratory syndromes have Corona, hospitalize people whose disease worsens, treat them with steroids and oxygen and albuterol and expect a 1% death rate. As with seasonal influenza, deaths have been mainly those who are already compromised.

    Maybe I’m just a dumb gynecologist, but I don’t see how this is anything more than seasonal influenza with a Wuhan twist.

    • #4
    • February 23, 2020, at 10:41 AM PST
    • 5 likes
  5. Kozak Member
    Kozak Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Doctor Robert (View Comment):

    DonG (skeptic) (View Comment):

    New rule of thumb is that infected is about 100X the number dead. That means Iran is vastly under reporting. China should be presumed to be fake data. ZH has this nice chart below. It makes it easy to compare the outside China v. inside China. The slope on that mountain is shocking. This thing seems to be very spreadable. Israel has blocked people from Korea after some tourists tested positive. Samsung shut down their S20 (flagship phone) factory. I don’t see how containment is possible. We can’t all take 6 months off work to self-quarantine.

    True. It looks like stupid governments have let the horse out of the barn. We can’t all take 6 months off work to self-quarantine. We can, however, assume that all people with upper respiratory syndromes have Corona, hospitalize people whose disease worsens, treat them with steroids and oxygen and albuterol and expect a 1% death rate. As with seasonal influenza, deaths have been mainly those who are already compromised.

    Maybe I’m just a dumb gynecologist, but I don’t see how this is anything more than seasonal influenza with a Wuhan twist.

    Do you really think China would put 700 million people on lock down and crater their economy for something like the flu?

     

    • #5
    • February 23, 2020, at 1:08 PM PST
    • 10 likes
  6. 9thDistrictNeighbor Member

    Kozak (View Comment):
    Do you really think China would put 700 million people on lock down and crater their economy for something like the flu?

    Rodin: [Italian] Armed forces and police forces have been mobilized to form an insurmountable “health belt” around contagion areas. Roadblock violators risk up to a 3 months prison sentence.

    I understand why western governments are playing this close to the vest, but there is enough information available for the free world to draw it’s own conclusions.

    • #6
    • February 23, 2020, at 2:22 PM PST
    • 6 likes
  7. Jules PA Member

    It will be interesting to see reinfection, or recurrence data. I just listened to a podcast that talked about how this SARS2/COVID 19 may be different in that regard, in that the second round can be worse.

    For all we know this big reaction we see now is a second round for some of those infected?

    Also, that there is a difference between an engineered virus and a naturally evolving virus and how that influences how any kind of vaccine can work.

    It is 17 years since SARS no vaccine; 8 years later no vaccine for MERS. 

    We would do well to stand humbly before G-d in the face of this unknown. I don’t think our common attitudes of arrogance are going to work.

    • #7
    • February 23, 2020, at 2:42 PM PST
    • 8 likes
  8. DonG (skeptic) Coolidge

    Doctor Robert (View Comment):
    upper respiratory syndromes have Corona

    Covid19 is lower respiratory disease. by time the coughing starts things are very far along. I think the first symptoms are fever and breathing difficulty (for some folks). 

    • #8
    • February 23, 2020, at 2:54 PM PST
    • 6 likes
  9. Jules PA Member

    DonG (skeptic) (View Comment):

    Doctor Robert (View Comment):
    upper respiratory syndromes have Corona

    Covid19 is lower respiratory disease. by time the coughing starts things are very far along. I think the first symptoms are fever and breathing difficulty (for some folks).

    Just heard a podcast that says fever of 99.1, with blood oxygen of 93% or trouble breathing puts the patient into the very watched category. This came from a study of 6000 Chinese patients.

    I really should pay attention, I’ll try to find the link.

    Edit, I think this is it

    The Coronavirus Crisis is Worse Than We Thought and Coronavirus Reinfection by American Conservative University

    Feb 20 Ricochet Superfeed, American Conservative University.

    • #9
    • February 23, 2020, at 2:58 PM PST
    • 4 likes
  10. DonG (skeptic) Coolidge

    Jules PA (View Comment):
    It will be interesting to see reinfection, or recurrence data. I just listened to a podcast that talked about how this SARS2/COVID 19 may be different in that regard, in that the second round can be worse.

    I heard that China tried a vaccine in ferrets. When exposed there was an acute immune response and organ failure. I wonder if that is like a re-infection. I only heard this from one source, so YMMV.

    • #10
    • February 23, 2020, at 2:58 PM PST
    • 3 likes
  11. Jules PA Member

    DonG (skeptic) (View Comment):

    Jules PA (View Comment):
    It will be interesting to see reinfection, or recurrence data. I just listened to a podcast that talked about how this SARS2/COVID 19 may be different in that regard, in that the second round can be worse.

    I heard that China tried a vaccine in ferrets. When exposed there was an acute immune response and organ failure. I wonder if that is like a re-infection. I only heard this from one source, so YMMV.

    Listen to the podcast in comment 9. It talks about secondary infection and antibodies, etc. Very interesting. 

    • #11
    • February 23, 2020, at 3:09 PM PST
    • 1 like
  12. Kozak Member
    Kozak Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    9thDistrictNeighbor (View Comment):

    Kozak (View Comment):
    Do you really think China would put 700 million people on lock down and crater their economy for something like the flu?

    Rodin: [Italian] Armed forces and police forces have been mobilized to form an insurmountable “health belt” around contagion areas. Roadblock violators risk up to a 3 months prison sentence.

    I understand why western governments are playing this close to the vest, but there is enough information available for the free world to draw it’s own conclusions.

     

    Take what they say with a large dose of salt.

    Watch what they do…..

    • #12
    • February 23, 2020, at 3:48 PM PST
    • 6 likes
  13. Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… Member

    I have a few questions for the docs. I’m not sure how to cut-and-paste the graphs from the Worldometer site linked in the OP.

    (1) The Worldometer graph of “active cases” shows an essentially flat line since Feb. 13, including a slight decline every day since Feb. 17. This looks like very good news to me. Comments?

    (2) The Worldometer graph of “closed cases” shows a significant decline in fatality rate. The fatality rate was 41.8% on Feb. 2 and has declined to 9.8% on Feb. 22. I assume that this is because the death count increases with every death, while the recovery count increases only once a person fully recovers (presumably days or weeks later). In any event, this looks like very good news. Comments?

    (3) Assuming that the death rate remains stable at around 10%, how does this compare to other epidemics?

     

    • #13
    • February 23, 2020, at 4:04 PM PST
    • 3 likes
  14. Saint Augustine Member

    Some numbers for this morning.

    • #14
    • February 23, 2020, at 4:20 PM PST
    • 2 likes
  15. Clavius Thatcher

    It appears to not be spreading in warm-climate countries. Would that give us hope for spring and summer to come?

    • #15
    • February 23, 2020, at 4:58 PM PST
    • 3 likes
  16. Rodin Member
    Rodin

    Clavius (View Comment):

    It appears to not be spreading in warm-climate countries. Would that give us hope for spring and summer to come?

    Not sure that is correct. Singapore is warm-climate and initially was spreading quickly until the authorities moved swiftly into action. Malaysia had more cases than the US until just recently. The big question is whether COVID-19 infections are being detected and reported everywhere they are occurring. China has investments in equatorial Africa and South America but there are no reported cases from there. Is that because there are none or they are not being detected/reported?

    • #16
    • February 23, 2020, at 5:26 PM PST
    • 6 likes
  17. Rodin Member
    Rodin

    South Korea has now surpassed the Diamond Princess; Italy has surpassed Japan. 

    • #17
    • February 23, 2020, at 5:43 PM PST
    • 4 likes
  18. Rodin Member
    Rodin

    Slide from today’s video by Chris Martenson. This makes sense as many viruses have a contagion period in persons after recovery. Either that is what is happening or someone was never actually recovered or re-infected.

    • #18
    • February 23, 2020, at 6:00 PM PST
    • 3 likes
  19. Saint Augustine Member

    Rodin (View Comment):

    South Korea has now surpassed the Diamond Princess; Italy has surpassed Japan. 

    Dang.

    • #19
    • February 23, 2020, at 7:45 PM PST
    • 2 likes
  20. DonG (skeptic) Coolidge

    Just bought a one-way ticket to Seoul for my kid to take summer school. I got the refundable rate. I think it is a 50/50 thing.

    • #20
    • February 23, 2020, at 8:36 PM PST
    • 4 likes
  21. ctlaw Coolidge

    https://www.foxnews.com/health/global-outbreak-causes-pandemic-fears-after-cases-jump-in-italy-and-south-korea

    Did a delegation of Iranian bioweapons scientists spend December in Wuhan?

    • #21
    • February 24, 2020, at 3:35 AM PST
    • 6 likes
  22. Rodin Member
    Rodin

    ctlaw (View Comment):

    https://www.foxnews.com/health/global-outbreak-causes-pandemic-fears-after-cases-jump-in-italy-and-south-korea

    Did a delegation of Iranian bioweapons scientists spend December in Wuhan?

    Now that is a provocative thought.

    • #22
    • February 24, 2020, at 6:34 AM PST
    • 3 likes
  23. Franz Drumlin Member

    What really frightens me is that this all might lead to President Bernie Sanders. Even if the virus turns out to be no more virulent than the flu it might trigger a world-wide recession. (The stock market is at the moment feeling the affects. My poor, poor IRA . . . ) If the jobless rate in September is climbing America might turn its troubled eyes to Dear Leader Bernie. It hope this doesn’t go . . . um, viral?

    • #23
    • February 24, 2020, at 7:32 AM PST
    • 7 likes
  24. iWe Reagan
    iWe Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Kozak (View Comment):
    Do you really think China would put 700 million people on lock down and crater their economy for something like the flu?

    People fear the unknown.

    • #24
    • February 24, 2020, at 7:52 AM PST
    • 3 likes
  25. Unsk Member

    Franz: “What really frightens me is that this all might lead to President Bernie Sanders.”

    Bingo.

    This pandemic, for those of you are paying any kind of attention at all , is very grave, and could explode here in the US. Soon. The news media would then of course blame Trump. 24/7 with glee and gusto.

    It is grave on several levels. As a pandemic. Because we will soon run out of many critical drugs. Because we likely don’t have enough test kits or facilities. And because the economy is going to get whacked like you have never seen before. The Big Data CargoMetric company says shipping, ( which carries 90% of the world’s trade and which China is unique vulnerable ) to and from China has but shut down. Supply Chain misery is coming in a back way. China is done. We do not want to go there like them.

    And then we have Dr Nancy Messonnier, director of CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters ” Our goal continues to be slowing the introduction of the virus into the US. This buys us more time to prepare communities for more case and possibly sustained spread”. They are no longer talking about stopping the virus, they are only trying to slow it’s introduction. Think about that for a moment. 

    “Messonnier goes on to say that the day may come when the US will have to do the same thing China is now doing: shutting down business and schools indefinitely.” From the American Conservative.

    Got that. “Shutting down business and schools indefinitely”. Just like South Korea and Northern Italy.

    How do we survive that? Two thirds of American families live pay check to pay check. They are going to be wiped out. And then of course we have the problem that such necessities like food are on that same stupid ” just in time only 3 day supply” – supply chain. How do we deal with that?

    People need to wake up now. This is an enormous country threatening emergency. Trump has to use all his powers to do a number of things all at once:

    • Build many isolated hospitals away from population centers dedicated just to CoronaVirus care. If we allow infection of our regular hospitals we will be in real trouble.

    • Help as much as possible to produce effective masks for people. Particularly health care workers.

    • Help to bring back production of key pharmaceuticals back to US ASAP!

    • Bring back as much industrial production to America as soon as possible by any means that are legal.

    The sooner we start taking aggressive pro-active steps the better off we will be.

    • #25
    • February 24, 2020, at 9:08 AM PST
    • 4 likes
  26. Al French, PIT Geezer Moderator

    Fox News is reporting that this morning Iran admitted to 50 deaths. The story doesn’t mention infection numbers.

    And the Johns Hopkins dashboard isn’t currently working.

    • #26
    • February 24, 2020, at 9:25 AM PST
    • 3 likes
  27. Bryan G. Stephens Thatcher
    Bryan G. Stephens Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Unsk (View Comment):

    Franz: “What really frightens me is that this all might lead to President Bernie Sanders.”

    Bingo.

    This pandemic, for those of you are paying any kind of attention at all , is very grave, and could explode here in the US. Soon. The news media would then of course blame Trump. 24/7 with glee and gusto.

    It is grave on several levels. As a pandemic. Because we will soon run out of many critical drugs. Because we likely don’t have enough test kits or facilities. And because the economy is going to get whacked like you have never seen before. The Big Data CargoMetric company says shipping, ( which carries 90% of the world’s trade and which China is unique vulnerable ) to and from China has but shut down. Supply Chain misery is coming in a back way. China is done. We do not want to go there like them.

    And then we have Dr Nancy Messonnier, director of CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters ” Our goal continues to be slowing the introduction of the virus into the US. This buys us more time to prepare communities for more case and possibly sustained spread”. They are no longer talking about stopping the virus, they are only trying to slow it’s introduction. Think about that for a moment.

    “Messonnier goes on to say that the day may come when the US will have to do the same thing China is now doing: shutting down business and schools indefinitely.” From the American Conservative.

    Got that. “Shutting down business and schools indefinitely”. Just like South Korea and Northern Italy.

    How do we survive that? Two thirds of American families live pay check to pay check. They are going to be wiped out. And then of course we have the problem that such necessities like food are on that same stupid ” just in time only 3 day supply” – supply chain. How do we deal with that?

    People need to wake up now. This is an enormous country threatening emergency. Trump has to use all his powers to do a number of things all at once:

    • Build many isolated hospitals away from population centers dedicated just to CoronaVirus care. If we allow infection of our regular hospitals we will be in real trouble.

    • Help as much as possible to produce effective masks for people. Particularly health care workers.

    • Help to bring back production of key pharmaceuticals back to US ASAP!

    • Bring back as much industrial production to America as soon as possible by any means that are legal.

    The sooner we start taking aggressive pro-active steps the better off we will be.

    These are all things the Free Market types have said were bad ideas. To me. this is exactly whey we need key industries in the USA

    • #27
    • February 24, 2020, at 9:47 AM PST
    • 5 likes
  28. Kozak Member
    Kozak Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    iWe (View Comment):

    Kozak (View Comment):
    Do you really think China would put 700 million people on lock down and crater their economy for something like the flu?

    People fear the unknown.

    The Chinese are not totally irrational. They must be seeing something that makes them think such drastic measures are warranted,

    This is not simple fear of the unknown.

    Economic activity is way way down.

    They are welding apartment buildings shut with the residents inside.

    Hauling people off in chains

    This is a checkout line at a store in China

     

     

     

     

    • #28
    • February 24, 2020, at 9:57 AM PST
    • 3 likes
  29. ctlaw Coolidge

    Kozak (View Comment):

    The Chinese are not totally irrational. They must be seeing something that makes them think such drastic measures are warranted,

    This is not simple fear of the unknown.

    Economic activity is way way down.

    Hopefully, this puts a temporary end to the Hong Kong oppression. Why further discourage economic activity?

    OTOH, I wodner whether the ChiComs will selectively neglect to treat coronavirus in Tibetan and Uighur populations.

    • #29
    • February 24, 2020, at 12:56 PM PST
    • 4 likes
  30. Kozak Member
    Kozak Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    ctlaw (View Comment):

    OTOH, I wodner whether the ChiComs will selectively neglect to treat coronavirus in Tibetan and Uighur populations.

    Unless they completelystop travel between those regions and the rest of China they will just ensure more infections in the Han Chinese population moving forward.

    • #30
    • February 24, 2020, at 2:16 PM PST
    • 2 likes