Bernie Hits Jackpot in Nevada

 

The Nevada Caucus precinct results are coming in, and Sen. Bernie Sanders is projected to win big.

“In Nevada, and in New Hampshire and in Iowa — what we showed is that our volunteers are prepared to knock on hundreds and hundreds of thousands of doors,” Sanders said at his victory speech in San Antonio. “That no campaign has a grassroots movement like we do, which is another reason why we’re going to win this election.”

Here’s where the official count stands (updated on Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET, 50% of precincts in):

Candidate %
Sanders 46.6%
Biden 19.2%
Buttigieg 15.4%
Warren 10.3%
Klobuchar 4.5%
Steyer 3.8%
Gabbard 0.1%

Mayor Pete Buttigieg blasted Sanders in a post-caucus speech.

“I believe we can defeat Trump and deliver for the American people by empowering the American people to make their own health care choices with Medicare for all who want it,” he said. “Sen. Sanders believes in taking away that choice, removing people from having the option of a private plan and replacing it with a public plan whether you want it or not.”

Meanwhile, Democratic establishment types are not taking it well.

This is all looking very familiar. The RNC establishment lost control of its nomination process in 2016, and it appears the DNC establishment is doing the same in 2020. Regardless of the outcome in November, can the parties somehow restructure? Do they have the will? The desire?

It should be an interesting four years. As for me, I look forward to the “Draft Hillary” movement preceding the Democratic convention.

Published in Elections
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  1. Kozak Member
    Kozak
    @Kozak

    Stad (View Comment):

    In the recent flagship Ricochet podcast, it was mentioned a couple of times the Democrat primary is over, Sanders is the winner, and the usual “it’s too early to say it’s over” doesn’t apply.

    Sorry, but it does apply. Bloomberg may play the “Hillary as Veep” card as rumored. Naming a female Veep pick early could change the dynamics of the race. Bernie might try to counter by suggesting Kamala Harris would make a wonderful running mate (or even picking her). Amy might pick Petey as Veep. Who knows?

    I believe the Democrats in the smoke-filled rooms know Sanders is a guaranteed loser as well as the rest of their candidates. They may go ahead and let Bernie go down in flames so the party can regroup for 2024 . . .

    I don’t think Sanders will get enough delegates to clinch the nomination on the first round.  At that point delegates get released, and

    the Super delegates in particular come into play.  Remember, they were put in to ensure that another McGovern didn’t get nominated.

    If Bernie gets screwed again his followers will go nuts. Milwaukee will probably be a repeat of the 68 Chicago convention.

    • #31
  2. Kozak Member
    Kozak
    @Kozak

    Jon1979 (View Comment):
    Though be honest, I expect the Borg hive-mind effect to step in on the left and let those in the latter group know if they like their careers they’ll get with the program, if we get to the point Sanders’ nomination is a fait-accompli.

    And if they want to avoid the Reeducation Gulag….

    • #32
  3. John Berg Member
    John Berg
    @JohnBerg

    Seawriter (View Comment):

    It is going to be 1972. Take that to the bank. Not as large a popular vote margin, and fewer electoral votes, but it will be a thumping for the Democrats.

    There are far too many people taking council of their fears. We have the same electoral college distribution as in 2016. Trump will peel away 10-15% of the black vote. Private sector union employees will vote for Trump in larger percentages than in 2016. A lot of Republicans who sat on their hands and did not vote for Trump will vote for him this time. No one who did vote for him in 2016 will not vote for him in 2020. Plus a lot of moderate Democrats are scared by the Marxist lurch of the party.

    Given all that? The states Trump carried narrowly in 2016 will be carried by a larger margin this time. States he lost narrowly in 2016 will be carried by Trump in 2020. And by spitting on the mainstream voters, the Democrats will shift the percentages in states they carried widely in 2016 to much narrower victories this year.

    Unless something happens to screw up the economy, Trump is going to walk away with the election.

    I didn’t vote for Trump in 2016 – I didn’t believe he’d govern as a conservative.  I will definitely vote for him in 2020!  In fact I’m trying to get to one of his rallies.   (I live in Portland, Oregon so the chances my vote will swing the state are minimal). 

    • #33
  4. Joseph Stanko Coolidge
    Joseph Stanko
    @JosephStanko

    Jeff Hawkins (View Comment):

    TeamAmerica (View Comment):

    Jeff Hawkins (View Comment):

    I fear this might be 2016 all the way

    You don’t think it may be a 1972 repeat, especially given the economy?

    No. Plenty of people don’t believe it’s a good economy.

    Jobs numbers are good, and the stock market has hit record highs — which is great, if you’re invested in it.  Lots of Millennials are not, apparently they were scarred for life by the financial crisis and in any case most are in debt with little savings to invest.

    Meanwhile the costs of housing, education, and health care are absurdly high and continuing to rise.  I think a large part of Comrade Bernie’s appeal is his promise to “solve” these issues by throwing piles of money at them and/or making them free.

    • #34
  5. Saint Augustine Member
    Saint Augustine
    @SaintAugustine

    Seawriter (View Comment):
    Given all that? The states Trump carried narrowly in 2016 will be carried by a larger margin this time. States he lost narrowly in 2016 will be carried by Trump in 2020. And by spitting on the mainstream voters, the Democrats will shift the percentages in states they carried widely in 2016 to much narrower victories this year.

    And a couple of blue states that require their delegates to follow the popular vote will have to vote for Trump?

    • #35
  6. Hartmann von Aue Member
    Hartmann von Aue
    @HartmannvonAue

    Saint Augustine (View Comment):

    Seawriter (View Comment):
    Given all that? The states Trump carried narrowly in 2016 will be carried by a larger margin this time. States he lost narrowly in 2016 will be carried by Trump in 2020. And by spitting on the mainstream voters, the Democrats will shift the percentages in states they carried widely in 2016 to much narrower victories this year.

    And a couple of blue states that require their delegates to follow the popular vote will have to vote for Trump?

    May it be so. 

    • #36
  7. Seawriter Contributor
    Seawriter
    @Seawriter

    Saint Augustine (View Comment):

    Seawriter (View Comment):
    Given all that? The states Trump carried narrowly in 2016 will be carried by a larger margin this time. States he lost narrowly in 2016 will be carried by Trump in 2020. And by spitting on the mainstream voters, the Democrats will shift the percentages in states they carried widely in 2016 to much narrower victories this year.

    And a couple of blue states that require their delegates to follow the popular vote will have to vote for Trump?

    Not yet. That only takes effect once at least 270 EVs worth of states vote that in. Of course, there is no provision for it going out of effect if redistricting reduces the EV of the states agreeing to it below 270.

    • #37
  8. Saint Augustine Member
    Saint Augustine
    @SaintAugustine

    Seawriter (View Comment):

    Saint Augustine (View Comment):

    Seawriter (View Comment):
    Given all that? The states Trump carried narrowly in 2016 will be carried by a larger margin this time. States he lost narrowly in 2016 will be carried by Trump in 2020. And by spitting on the mainstream voters, the Democrats will shift the percentages in states they carried widely in 2016 to much narrower victories this year.

    And a couple of blue states that require their delegates to follow the popular vote will have to vote for Trump?

    Not yet. That only takes effect once at least 270 EVs worth of states vote that in. Of course, there is no provision for it going out of effect if redistricting reduces the EV of the states agreeing to it below 270.

    Thanks for clarifying.

    • #38
  9. Instugator Thatcher
    Instugator
    @Instugator

    Hartmann von Aue (View Comment):
    I’ve been telling people this for years. Call them leftists or regressives. “Liberal” does not describe their mindset or their values. 

    I call them Pro(re)gressives. Have been for years.

     

    • #39
  10. Manny Coolidge
    Manny
    @Manny

    James Lileks (View Comment):

    Sockdologizing cretinous jut-jawed noble pronouncement of an empty-headed maroon:

    Who’s going to break it to him?

    I always suspected Wash was a light weight. This is downright stupid. One has to wonder about his IQ. 

    • #40
  11. Instugator Thatcher
    Instugator
    @Instugator

    Seawriter (View Comment):
    Not yet. That only takes effect once at least 270 EVs worth of states vote that in. Of course, there is no provision for it going out of effect if redistricting reduces the EV of the states agreeing to it below 270.

    We should still call them out for it.

    • #41
  12. ToryWarWriter Coolidge
    ToryWarWriter
    @ToryWarWriter

    I can summarize Trumps entire Campaign here.

     

     

     

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vx2Ik1Rckss

     

     

     

     

    • #42
  13. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    ToryWarWriter (View Comment):

    I can summarize Trumps entire Campaign here.

     

     

     

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vx2Ik1Rckss

    I had certainly heard about those “Morning in America” ads, but had never before seen one. Thanks for the link!

     

     

     

     

    • #43
  14. Mare Pete Inactive
    Mare Pete
    @UmbraFractus

    Seawriter (View Comment):

    It is going to be 1972. Take that to the bank. Not as large a popular vote margin, and fewer electoral votes, but it will be a thumping for the Democrats.

    There are far too many people taking council of their fears. We have the same electoral college distribution as in 2016. Trump will peel away 10-15% of the black vote. Private sector union employees will vote for Trump in larger percentages than in 2016. A lot of Republicans who sat on their hands and did not vote for Trump will vote for him this time. No one who did vote for him in 2016 will not vote for him in 2020. Plus a lot of moderate Democrats are scared by the Marxist lurch of the party.

    Given all that? The states Trump carried narrowly in 2016 will be carried by a larger margin this time. States he lost narrowly in 2016 will be carried by Trump in 2020. And by spitting on the mainstream voters, the Democrats will shift the percentages in states they carried widely in 2016 to much narrower victories this year.

    Unless something happens to screw up the economy, Trump is going to walk away with the election.

    This sounds plausible, but I think you underestimate the number of Democrats for whom beating Trump is their #1 issue. They don’t care, or at least don’t say they care, who the nominee is as long as he’s not Trump.

    Maybe a lot of those people will chicken* out when presented with Sanders,* or maybe they’ll be dwarfed by the rest, but it’s still something to consider.

    *No pun intended.

    • #44
  15. Seawriter Contributor
    Seawriter
    @Seawriter

    Mare Pete (View Comment):
    This sounds plausible, but I think you underestimate the number of Democrats for whom beating Trump is their #1 issue.

    Actually, I don’t. But so what? You think they did not vote last time? More than that, do you really believe there are enough of them to overcome the advantages of everyone who voted for Trump in 2016 voting for him again and many who did not vote for him in 2016 planning to vote for him in 2020?

    There are not enough broken-glass beat Trump Democrats to cause a shift in states away from Trump in 2020. They are not even a majority of the members of the Democrat Party. And they sure are not the independents who shied away from Trump in 2016 and are shifting towards him in 2020 because the crazy is so strong among the Democrats. 

    Yes, these people are loud, but the contest is a numbers game, and there are not enough of them.

    • #45
  16. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Mare Pete (View Comment):

    This sounds plausible, but I think you underestimate the number of Democrats for whom beating Trump is their #1 issue. They don’t care, or at least don’t say they care, who the nominee is as long as he’s not Trump.

    Maybe a lot of those people will chicken* out when presented with Sanders,* or maybe they’ll be dwarfed by the rest, but it’s still something to consider.

    *No pun intended.

    Some of those people who go on and on about how the most important thing is to defeat Trump need to be challenged: “If you don’t have any reason to oppose Trump and you don’t like any of your candidates, why not vote for Trump? Maybe contribute to his campaign.”  That’s what I was thinking the other day when I saw Bloomberg go on and on about how important it was to defeat Trump, but didn’t provide any reason for his opposition to Trump.

    • #46
  17. Jon1979 Inactive
    Jon1979
    @Jon1979

    Mare Pete (View Comment):

    Seawriter (View Comment):

    It is going to be 1972. Take that to the bank. Not as large a popular vote margin, and fewer electoral votes, but it will be a thumping for the Democrats.

    There are far too many people taking council of their fears. We have the same electoral college distribution as in 2016. Trump will peel away 10-15% of the black vote. Private sector union employees will vote for Trump in larger percentages than in 2016. A lot of Republicans who sat on their hands and did not vote for Trump will vote for him this time. No one who did vote for him in 2016 will not vote for him in 2020. Plus a lot of moderate Democrats are scared by the Marxist lurch of the party.

    Given all that? The states Trump carried narrowly in 2016 will be carried by a larger margin this time. States he lost narrowly in 2016 will be carried by Trump in 2020. And by spitting on the mainstream voters, the Democrats will shift the percentages in states they carried widely in 2016 to much narrower victories this year.

    Unless something happens to screw up the economy, Trump is going to walk away with the election.

    This sounds plausible, but I think you underestimate the number of Democrats for whom beating Trump is their #1 issue. They don’t care, or at least don’t say they care, who the nominee is as long as he’s not Trump.

    Maybe a lot of those people will chicken* out when presented with Sanders,* or maybe they’ll be dwarfed by the rest, but it’s still something to consider.

    *No pun intended.

    The fact that Democrats finally got Nixon in 1974 obscures the fact that Democrats had been building up their mad against Nixon since 1948, and were white-hot by this time in ’72 over the possibility of defeating him for re-election. Along with Vietnam and progressive social issues in general, that’s what fueled the huge McGovern turnout in the primaries — Nixon Derangement Syndrome.

    • #47
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