Recommended by Ricochet Members Created with Sketch. Now Here’s an Interesting Poll

 

In most of the major polls conducted, just about any Democrat candidate beats Trump. According to Quinnipiac, Trump even loses to Socialist Bernie Sanders in Texas. Think about that for a second. Texas. Austin, Texas, maybe. But all of Texas? It raises questions on the methodology of the polling that’s being done. And after all, we all know how accurate the polling was in the 2016 election…until the final poll came in on Election Night…where previous polling in some states was definitely called into question. 

Now, this latest poll from New Hampshire is interesting (see graphic above). Because it compares the turnout of previous incumbent President running for their second term. In this poll, people just didn’t pick up the phone to respond to a pollster. For the most part, they had to walk or drive to a voting station in cold winter weather to cast a vote. And unlike some polling that only samples about a thousand or two thousand respondents, this sample size is well, more bigly. What the poll suggests is that perhaps all the other polling may be a smidge off. Because enthusiasm for the current President may not be represented accurately. I realize the massive turnouts for Trump at rallies around the country are not an empirical scientific indicator of how well Trump is likely to do in November as is the paltry turnout of any of the Democrat candidates. And anything can happen between now and November. But if I were a Democrat operative supporting any of the candidates still in the race, I might find this latest New Hampshire poll a bit unsettling. Of course, Chuck Schumer tells us that when the Democrats finally do choose their nominee there will be tremendous enthusiasm for him or her that will amaze everyone…or words to that effect. So, what do I know?

Oh, here’s an updated version with incumbent POTUS pix:

Published in General
This post was promoted to the Main Feed by a Ricochet Editor at the recommendation of Ricochet members. Like this post? Want to comment? Join Ricochet’s community of conservatives and be part of the conversation. Get your first month free.

There are 26 comments.

Become a member to join the conversation. Or sign in if you're already a member.
  1. Spin Coolidge
    Spin Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    I think you can take some encouragement from the turnout. There’s no reason to turnout, in a blue state, for the incumbent Republican for which no credible primary challenger exists. But people did it in record numbers anyway. At the very least it tells you the Republican base is rarin’ to go.

    • #1
    • February 12, 2020, at 7:44 AM PST
    • 10 likes
  2. Mr Nick Member

    Brian Watt:

    Of course, Chuck Schumer tells us that when the Democrats finally do choose their nominee there will be tremendous enthusiasm for him or her that will amaze everyone…or words to that effect. So, what do I know?

    Would that be Chuck Schumer’s invisible army of enthusiasts?

    • #2
    • February 12, 2020, at 7:47 AM PST
    • 4 likes
  3. Stad Thatcher

    Brian Watt: But if I were a Democrat operative supporting any of the candidates still in the race, I might find this latest New Hampshire poll a bit unsettling.

    More like “terrifying” . . .

    • #3
    • February 12, 2020, at 8:02 AM PST
    • 7 likes
  4. Richard O'Shea Coolidge

    Compare and contrast to the Democrat NH primary turnout which, I believe, was down significantly from four years ago.

     

    • #4
    • February 12, 2020, at 8:27 AM PST
    • 5 likes
  5. OldPhil Coolidge

    The only poll that matters is the one on election day.

    • #5
    • February 12, 2020, at 8:38 AM PST
    • 8 likes
  6. Manny Member

    Good sign, but only one sign. I won’t stop worrying until Trump is declared the winner on election night.

    • #6
    • February 12, 2020, at 9:52 AM PST
    • 6 likes
  7. Percival Thatcher
    Percival Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    1. How many people hang up on pollsters?

    2. Do those hanging up have a tendency one way or the other?

    • #7
    • February 12, 2020, at 10:32 AM PST
    • 5 likes
  8. DonG (skeptic) Coolidge

    Now do it with percentage of votes.

    • #8
    • February 12, 2020, at 11:36 AM PST
    • 1 like
  9. DonG (skeptic) Coolidge

    DonG (skeptic) (View Comment):
    Now do it with percentage of votes.

    2020 (February 11): Donald Trump (86%)

    2012 (January 10): Barack Obama (81%)

    2004 (January 27): George W. Bush (81%)

    1996 (February 20): Bill Clinton (84%)

    1988 (February 16): George H. W. Bush (38%)

    1984 (February 28): Ronald Reagan (86%)

    1980 (February 26): Jimmy Carter (48%)

    1976 (February 24): Gerald Ford (50%)

     

    Bold for incumbents that lost in the general.

     

     

    • #9
    • February 12, 2020, at 11:42 AM PST
    • 1 like
  10. Stad Thatcher

    Percival (View Comment):
    1. How many people hang up on pollsters?

    That is one statistic a pollster will almost never show you – the response rate for his poll. It’s another reason not to trust the polls.

    • #10
    • February 12, 2020, at 12:11 PM PST
    • 4 likes
  11. Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… Member

    Spin (View Comment):

    I think you can take some encouragement from the turnout. There’s no reason to turnout, in a blue state, for the incumbent Republican for which no credible primary challenger exists. But people did it in record numbers anyway. At the very least it tells you the Republican base is rarin’ to go.

    Spin, NH actually isn’t a blue state. It’s neutral ground, with a Cook PVI of zero.

    Clinton defeated Trump in NH in 2016, 47.6% to 47.3%.

    • #11
    • February 12, 2020, at 12:43 PM PST
    • 2 likes
  12. Jager Coolidge
    Jager Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    DonG (skeptic) (View Comment):

    DonG (skeptic) (View Comment):
    Now do it with percentage of votes.

    2020 (February 11): Donald Trump (86%)

    2012 (January 10): Barack Obama (81%)

    2004 (January 27): George W. Bush (81%)

    1996 (February 20): Bill Clinton (84%)

    1988 (February 16): George H. W. Bush (38%)

    1984 (February 28): Ronald Reagan (86%)

    1980 (February 26): Jimmy Carter (48%)

    1976 (February 24): Gerald Ford (50%)

     

    Bold for incumbents that lost in the general.

     

     

    Sure but Bill Kristol tells me that Trump only getting 86% of the vote in New Hampshire means that there is more resistance to Trump that is often portrayed and these voters could be pried away from the Republicans. 

    https://thebulwark.com/the-democratic-state-of-play/

    • #12
    • February 12, 2020, at 1:01 PM PST
    • 2 likes
  13. Sisyphus (hears Xi laughing) Coolidge
    Sisyphus (hears Xi laughing) Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Percival (View Comment):

    1. How many people hang up on pollsters?

    2. Do those hanging up have a tendency one way or the other?

    Let’s take a poll and find out!

    • #13
    • February 12, 2020, at 2:08 PM PST
    • 6 likes
  14. Percival Thatcher
    Percival Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Sisyphus (View Comment):

    Percival (View Comment):

    1. How many people hang up on pollsters?

    2. Do those hanging up have a tendency one way or the other?

    Let’s take a poll and find out!

    The first one is measurable by @stad‘s methodology. The second one lies out of reach.

    Whenever I get approached by an exit pollster, I mutter “No habla inglés” and press on.

    • #14
    • February 12, 2020, at 4:00 PM PST
    • 2 likes
  15. The Reticulator Member

    Mr Nick (View Comment):

    Brian Watt:

    Of course, Chuck Schumer tells us that when the Democrats finally do choose their nominee there will be tremendous enthusiasm for him or her that will amaze everyone…or words to that effect. So, what do I know?

    Would that be Chuck Schumer’s invisible army of enthusiasts?

    Some candidates have a lot of grassroots support. Some candidates have a lot of support from those under the grass. Their enthusiasm isn’t so obvious, but it is there.

    • #15
    • February 12, 2020, at 9:01 PM PST
    • 5 likes
  16. RushBabe49 Thatcher

    My hero, Rush Limbaugh likes to say that polls aren’t meant to reflect public opinion but to shape public opinion. Therefore I don’t believe polls. 

    • #16
    • February 12, 2020, at 9:19 PM PST
    • 6 likes
  17. The Reticulator Member

    RushBabe49 (View Comment):

    My hero, Rush Limbaugh likes to say that polls aren’t meant to reflect public opinion but to shape public opinion. Therefore I don’t believe polls.

    And there are people like me who encourage everyone to lie to pollsters, and who tell pollsters that I tell them lies.

    • #17
    • February 12, 2020, at 9:44 PM PST
    • 3 likes
  18. Stad Thatcher

    Jager (View Comment):
    Trump only getting 86%

    Somehow, the word “only” seems inappropriate as used here . . .

    • #18
    • February 13, 2020, at 5:34 AM PST
    • 2 likes
  19. Bethany Mandel Editor

    If you haven’t listened to the Wednesday episode of Ben Shapiro’s podcast, he talked a lot about this. It’s very interesting and doesn’t look good for Democrats.

    • #19
    • February 13, 2020, at 7:07 AM PST
    • 2 likes
  20. Rightfromthestart Coolidge

    Mr Nick (View Comment):

    Brian Watt:

    Of course, Chuck Schumer tells us that when the Democrats finally do choose their nominee there will be tremendous enthusiasm for him or her that will amaze everyone…or words to that effect. So, what do I know?

    Would that be Chuck Schumer’s invisible army of enthusiasts?

    They may meet in Biden’s make believe diner.

    • #20
    • February 13, 2020, at 11:11 AM PST
    • 2 likes
  21. Valiuth Member
    Valiuth Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Richard O'Shea (View Comment):

    Compare and contrast to the Democrat NH primary turnout which, I believe, was down significantly from four years ago.

     

    It wasn’t. It actually I think surpassed the turnout in 2008. 

    • #21
    • February 13, 2020, at 11:14 AM PST
    • 1 like
  22. Valiuth Member
    Valiuth Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    DonG (skeptic) (View Comment):

    DonG (skeptic) (View Comment):
    Now do it with percentage of votes.

    2020 (February 11): Donald Trump (86%)

    2012 (January 10): Barack Obama (81%)

    2004 (January 27): George W. Bush (81%)

    1996 (February 20): Bill Clinton (84%)

    1988 (February 16): George H. W. Bush (38%)

    1984 (February 28): Ronald Reagan (86%)

    1980 (February 26): Jimmy Carter (48%)

    1976 (February 24): Gerald Ford (50%)

     

    Bold for incumbents that lost in the general.

     

     

    I believe George Bush won the general election in 1988. 

     

    • #22
    • February 13, 2020, at 11:16 AM PST
    • Like
  23. Instugator Thatcher
    Instugator Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Valiuth (View Comment):
    I believe George Bush won the general election in 1988. 

    And he wasn’t an incumbent at that time.

    • #23
    • February 13, 2020, at 11:45 AM PST
    • 1 like
  24. JD Rucker Inactive

    They were going to the polls to stop Bill Weld! Because President Trump was scared!

    (that’s the left’s narrative, at least)

    • #24
    • February 13, 2020, at 12:10 PM PST
    • 2 likes
  25. Richard O'Shea Coolidge

    Valiuth (View Comment):

    Richard O’Shea (View Comment):

    Compare and contrast to the Democrat NH primary turnout which, I believe, was down significantly from four years ago.

     

    It wasn’t. It actually I think surpassed the turnout in 2008.

    I think this is right. Earlier reporting I heard said the opposite. 

    It looks like everyone’s turnout was up.

    • #25
    • February 13, 2020, at 6:59 PM PST
    • Like
  26. Bigfoot - Human Impersonator Thatcher

    Percival (View Comment):

    Sisyphus (View Comment):

    Percival (View Comment):

    1. How many people hang up on pollsters?

    2. Do those hanging up have a tendency one way or the other?

    Let’s take a poll and find out!

    The first one is measurable by @stad‘s methodology. The second one lies out of reach.

    Whenever I get approached by an exit pollster, I mutter “No habla inglés” and press on.

    Я не понимаю 

    Works well also. BUT, one year one of the crew spoke Russian also and I was quite late getting out of there……

    • #26
    • February 13, 2020, at 8:40 PM PST
    • 3 likes