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In most of the major polls conducted, just about any Democrat candidate beats Trump. According to Quinnipiac, Trump even loses to Socialist Bernie Sanders in Texas. Think about that for a second. Texas. Austin, Texas, maybe. But all of Texas? It raises questions on the methodology of the polling that’s being done. And after all, we all know how accurate the polling was in the 2016 election…until the final poll came in on Election Night…where previous polling in some states was definitely called into question.
Now, this latest poll from New Hampshire is interesting (see graphic above). Because it compares the turnout of previous incumbent President running for their second term. In this poll, people just didn’t pick up the phone to respond to a pollster. For the most part, they had to walk or drive to a voting station in cold winter weather to cast a vote. And unlike some polling that only samples about a thousand or two thousand respondents, this sample size is well, more bigly. What the poll suggests is that perhaps all the other polling may be a smidge off. Because enthusiasm for the current President may not be represented accurately. I realize the massive turnouts for Trump at rallies around the country are not an empirical scientific indicator of how well Trump is likely to do in November as is the paltry turnout of any of the Democrat candidates. And anything can happen between now and November. But if I were a Democrat operative supporting any of the candidates still in the race, I might find this latest New Hampshire poll a bit unsettling. Of course, Chuck Schumer tells us that when the Democrats finally do choose their nominee there will be tremendous enthusiasm for him or her that will amaze everyone…or words to that effect. So, what do I know?
Oh, here’s an updated version with incumbent POTUS pix: