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  1. Hugh Member
    Hugh
    @Hugh

    At the end of the day all that really matters is that you are doing better in this economic environment.

    • #1
  2. Clifford A. Brown Member
    Clifford A. Brown
    @CliffordBrown

    Optimism prevailing in the face of relentless propaganda by the professional media.

    • #2
  3. Bishop Wash Member
    Bishop Wash
    @BishopWash

    Sadly some will think that this will all continue with a Democrat in the White House. 

    • #3
  4. RightAngles Member
    RightAngles
    @RightAngles

     They can try all they want to, but they won’t win. Trump is a juggernaut.

    • #4
  5. drlorentz Member
    drlorentz
    @drlorentz

    “But he’s literally Hitler!”

    “Stop mixing wine with your meds, Nancy. Your office is this way.”

    • #5
  6. cirby Inactive
    cirby
    @cirby

    Right now, the only obvious economic roadblock is the coronavirus situation.

    If it hits China even harder (and spreads to the rest of Asia in large numbers), a lot of downstream industries will basically shut down for the next few weeks or months.

    If it really takes off and infects a lot of people outside of China, quite a few industries will take hard hits. I do trade shows for a living, and was at a very large convention this week. Pretty much everyone was “aware” of how coronavirus might impact the trade show industry, not to mention their own businesses. More than a few people basically said that they wouldn’t travel at all until they were sure the coast was clear.

    I’m already planning for the potential of having to take a few months off of work, if the trade show industry shuts down. At the very least, I’m assuming that I’ll be one of the “front line” folks who catch the damned thing in the early stages, and will have to take a couple of weeks off.

    The good news is that maybe, just maybe, it will wake up some of the folks who keep using the surprisingly-fragile China-to-America supply chain.

    (I was planning on buying a new VR headset, but it’s looking more and more like we’re not going to see a lot of “luxury” products out of that part of the world for a few months.)

    • #6
  7. drlorentz Member
    drlorentz
    @drlorentz

    cirby (View Comment):
    If it hits China even harder (and spreads to the rest of Asia in large numbers), a lot of downstream industries will basically shut down for the next few weeks or months.

    You say that as if it’s a bad thing. As you wisely noted,

    cirby (View Comment):
    The good news is that maybe, just maybe, it will wake up some of the folks who keep using the surprisingly-fragile China-to-America supply chain.

    Disengaging from China will result in short-term pain but will be good for America in the intermediate to long run.

    • #7
  8. cirby Inactive
    cirby
    @cirby

    drlorentz (View Comment):

    cirby (View Comment):
    If it hits China even harder (and spreads to the rest of Asia in large numbers), a lot of downstream industries will basically shut down for the next few weeks or months.

    You say that as if it’s a bad thing. As you wisely noted,

    cirby (View Comment):
    The good news is that maybe, just maybe, it will wake up some of the folks who keep using the surprisingly-fragile China-to-America supply chain.

    Disengaging from China will result in short-term pain but will be good for America in the intermediate to long run.

    Since the subject here is “doing better next year,” a short-term economic hit will certainly affect things. Considering the lead time for building factories and new supply chains, it would have to be three or so years (at least) before we see substantial changes for the better after a China collapse.

     

    • #8
  9. Bryan G. Stephens Thatcher
    Bryan G. Stephens
    @BryanGStephens

    At least our side is rooting for the economy to do well. 

     

    • #9
  10. Arahant Member
    Arahant
    @Arahant

    Bryan G. Stephens (View Comment):

    At least our side is rooting for the economy to do well.

    And the country in every other way.

    • #10
  11. drlorentz Member
    drlorentz
    @drlorentz

    cirby (View Comment):

    drlorentz (View Comment):

    cirby (View Comment):
    If it hits China even harder (and spreads to the rest of Asia in large numbers), a lot of downstream industries will basically shut down for the next few weeks or months.

    You say that as if it’s a bad thing. As you wisely noted,

    cirby (View Comment):
    The good news is that maybe, just maybe, it will wake up some of the folks who keep using the surprisingly-fragile China-to-America supply chain.

    Disengaging from China will result in short-term pain but will be good for America in the intermediate to long run.

    Since the subject here is “doing better next year,” a short-term economic hit will certainly affect things. Considering the lead time for building factories and new supply chains, it would have to be three or so years (at least) before we see substantial changes for the better after a China collapse.

    China “collapse” will not be instantaneous and there won’t be a collapse. Apply the same reasoning as you did for supply chain: China’s problems will occur over a period of time. Furthermore, tariffs already caused supply chain disruptions, which resulted in the development of alternatives. And that didn’t take three or more years. Turns out that producers in Vietnam and India (among others) started to take up the slack much sooner. This process was already underway before the emergence of the coronavirus. 

    • #11
  12. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    Bryan G. Stephens: Trump must be doing something right.

    He’s winning.

    • #12
  13. cirby Inactive
    cirby
    @cirby

    drlorentz (View Comment):

    cirby (View Comment):

    drlorentz (View Comment):

    cirby (View Comment):
    If it hits China even harder (and spreads to the rest of Asia in large numbers), a lot of downstream industries will basically shut down for the next few weeks or months.

    You say that as if it’s a bad thing. As you wisely noted,

    cirby (View Comment):
    The good news is that maybe, just maybe, it will wake up some of the folks who keep using the surprisingly-fragile China-to-America supply chain.

    Disengaging from China will result in short-term pain but will be good for America in the intermediate to long run.

    Since the subject here is “doing better next year,” a short-term economic hit will certainly affect things. Considering the lead time for building factories and new supply chains, it would have to be three or so years (at least) before we see substantial changes for the better after a China collapse.

    China “collapse” will not be instantaneous and there won’t be a collapse. Apply the same reasoning as you did for supply chain: China’s problems will occur over a period of time. Furthermore, tariffs already caused supply chain disruptions, which resulted in the development of alternatives. And that didn’t take three or more years. Turns out that producers in Vietnam and India (among others) started to take up the slack much sooner. This process was already underway before the emergence of the coronavirus.

    Catching some business in the supply chain is a couple of orders of magnitude different from rebuilding the majority of all of the low- and mid-level manufacturing that will be necessary.

    The (theoretical) China collapse won’t be instantaneous, true – but it will be relatively fast, and far beyond the capacity of the rest of the world to make up the slack in just a few months.

     

    • #13
  14. Mark Wilson Inactive
    Mark Wilson
    @MarkWilson

    Bryan G. Stephens: 74% of American Adults Expect to Be Better Off Next Year

    That’s a combination of Republicans who expect Trump to win reelection and Democrats who expect him to lose.  The remaining 26% are Republicans who wish he would lose and Democrats who fear he will win.

    • #14
  15. Bryan G. Stephens Thatcher
    Bryan G. Stephens
    @BryanGStephens

    cirby (View Comment):

    drlorentz (View Comment):

    cirby (View Comment):

    drlorentz (View Comment):

    cirby (View Comment):
    If it hits China even harder (and spreads to the rest of Asia in large numbers), a lot of downstream industries will basically shut down for the next few weeks or months.

    You say that as if it’s a bad thing. As you wisely noted,

    cirby (View Comment):
    The good news is that maybe, just maybe, it will wake up some of the folks who keep using the surprisingly-fragile China-to-America supply chain.

    Disengaging from China will result in short-term pain but will be good for America in the intermediate to long run.

    Since the subject here is “doing better next year,” a short-term economic hit will certainly affect things. Considering the lead time for building factories and new supply chains, it would have to be three or so years (at least) before we see substantial changes for the better after a China collapse.

    China “collapse” will not be instantaneous and there won’t be a collapse. Apply the same reasoning as you did for supply chain: China’s problems will occur over a period of time. Furthermore, tariffs already caused supply chain disruptions, which resulted in the development of alternatives. And that didn’t take three or more years. Turns out that producers in Vietnam and India (among others) started to take up the slack much sooner. This process was already underway before the emergence of the coronavirus.

    Catching some business in the supply chain is a couple of orders of magnitude different from rebuilding the majority of all of the low- and mid-level manufacturing that will be necessary.

    The (theoretical) China collapse won’t be instantaneous, true – but it will be relatively fast, and far beyond the capacity of the rest of the world to make up the slack in just a few months.

     

    This is what worries me

    • #15
  16. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    On the plus side, (re-)building a lot of factories would mean a lot of employment, much of it not highly skilled.

    • #16
  17. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Bryan G. Stephens: 74% of American Adults Expect to Be Better Off Next Year

    Only if they vote for Trump.

    • #17
  18. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Bishop Wash (View Comment):

    Sadly some will think that this will all continue with a Democrat in the White House.

    Some actually think what’s going on now IS because of a Democrat in the White House: they seem to believe it’s “leftover Obama.”

    • #18
  19. Bryan G. Stephens Thatcher
    Bryan G. Stephens
    @BryanGStephens

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Bryan G. Stephens: 74% of American Adults Expect to Be Better Off Next Year

    Only if they vote for Trump.

    That made me chuckle

    • #19
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