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Here is additional information strongly suggesting that Mitt Romney has a real shot at winning. Like the CNN poll cited in my post this morning, this one — a United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll — is based on a likely voter screen. It shows the race tied with each candidate drawing 47% of the votes:

The survey was conducted Sept. 27-30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

Romney led in the poll among independents, 49 percent to 41 percent, with both candidates winning more than 90 percent support from their respective parties. The survey had Obama winning 81 percent of the nonwhite vote and Romney carrying 55 percent of white voters.

In estimating the turnout on Nov. 6, the poll projects an electorate that is 74 percent white, 11 percent African-American, and 8 percent Latino. The likely-voter party splits are 36 percent Democratic, 29 percent Republican, and 30 percent independent.

The estimates are similar to the 2008 turnout, when, according to CNN exit polling, 74 percent of voters were white, 13 percent black, and 9 percent Latino, with Democratic turnout at 39 percent, Republicans at 32 percent, and independents at 29 percent.

The poll also asked voters which party they would prefer to control the Congress. Democrats were favored there. A slim plurality of likely voters said they preferred that Democrats win enough seats to control the House and keep hold of the Senate, a positive sign for the party five weeks out from the election.

In assessing the poll, you should take note of the presumed ethnic and partisan turnout. It is weighted on the presumption that the partisan divide will be almost identical to what it was in 2008 and that the same will be true for the ethnic divide. In my judgment, neither is likely. The electorate is apt to be closer to that of 2010. In particular, the partisan weighting makes no sense. The year 2008 was an outlier in that particular, and in 2010 there was no partisan divide.

If you were to readjust this poll by reducing slightly the black turnout and by a bit more the Hispanic turnout and if you were to assume a much closer partisan divide of the sort shown by, say, Rasmussen, Romney would be ahead by a comfortable margin — which is what I take to be the case.

Keep this in mind — for it may be the last snapshot you get of the results of this campaign prior to all hell breaking loose. David Axelrod and those who have run Barack Obama’s campaigns have a way of unleashing damaging revelations about his opponents at crucial moments in the campaign. Obama himself has, however, never been on the receiving end. But, in a few minutes, if the Drudgereport can be trusted, Sean Hannity on Fox will play a tape of Barack Obama delivering, in the presence of the Reverend Jeremiah Wright, a racial tirade well worthy of that notorious bigot. We are, for the first time, about to meet the real Barack Obama.

There are 40 comments.

  1. Cutlass Inactive

    Unfortunately I agree that this type of video will make little difference. Remember the overhyped “bombshells” that were released by Brietbart.om a few months ago? Neither does anyone outside the conservative blog bubble.

    Remember when this was going to be an epic clash of ideas, with Romney/Ryan leading a substantive crusade? Well, Romney has been either inept or invisible, they’ve allowed Ryan to be defined as the guy who lied about his marathon time (although he didn’t help himself with that “the math is too complicated” line on Sunday) and for the past month the top issue among conservatives has been endless analysis of the intricacies of poll sampling. 

    Right now it looks like the best we can do is pray that Kennedy and Scalia can hold on for another four years.

    • #1
    • October 3, 2012, at 1:51 AM PST
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  2. Cutlass Inactive

    Oh, one additional note of pessimism.

    1) If this video is actually seen widely, it may actually fire up some radical blacks who agree with what is being said and were previously unenthused about Obama.

    2) As previously mentioned, the narrative will be that Republican are desperate and “up to their old tricks” trying to stir up racism by portraying Obama as an “angry black man.” If MSM outlets report on the video they will be very selective in the clips they choose. So, the undecided voter who picks up fleeting impressions will simply pick up the “Republicans are racist” meme without ever seeing the actual video.

    Not this this video is needed to push that meme. They’ll have PACs during the final week bombarding minority areas with dire calls to stand with Obama against attacks by those slimy racist Republicans, which I fear could push minority turnout close to 2008 levels. 

    • #2
    • October 3, 2012, at 2:07 AM PST
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  3. Viator Member

    Regarding the chances of the 2012 voter profile being closer to 2008 or 2010 there is this:

    “This is the first time in Black church history that I am aware of, that Black pastors have encouraged their parishioners not to vote, ” Rev. Jamal-Harrison Bryant of Baltimore told The Washington Informer. Bryant has formed the Empowerment Network, a national coalition of about 30 denominations working to register African-American parishioners. Bryant, too, opposes same-sex marriage and stated that Obama’s endorsement of marriage equality is “at the heart” of the problem for black Christians.”

    • #3
    • October 3, 2012, at 4:38 AM PST
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  4. ConservativeWanderer Inactive
    Viator: Regarding the chances of the 2012 voter profile being closer to 2008 or 2010 there is this:

    “This is the first time in Black church history that I am aware of, that Black pastors have encouraged their parishioners not to vote, ” Rev. Jamal-Harrison Bryant of Baltimore told The Washington Informer. Bryant has formed the Empowerment Network, a national coalition of about 30 denominations working to register African-American parishioners. Bryant, too, opposes same-sex marriage and stated that Obama’s endorsement of marriage equality is “at the heart” of the problem for black Christians.” · 24 minutes ago

    Exactly.

    Anyone who thinks 2012 turnout among blacks will be the same as 2008 is deluding themselves. They were down in 2010, and Obama’s gay marriage stance will keep them away this year.

    • #4
    • October 3, 2012, at 5:05 AM PST
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  5. Profile Photo Member

    I thought the National Journal poll seemed a bit dubious, as it has the race tied at 47% and that makes it a bit of an outlier. I’m not sure if the breakdown of 36D, 29R and 30I are meant to state the sample of the poll. If so, a 47% tie on a D+7 poll is rather encouraging.

    The Obama tape will surely result in cries of Republican racism. I don’t see it losing Obama or Romney any votes that they can already count on. As far as Undecideds are concerned, I truly think this will damage Obama slightly. Hopefully that is enough.

    • #5
    • October 3, 2012, at 5:28 AM PST
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  6. ConservativeWanderer Inactive
    RightinChicago: I thought the National Journal poll seemed a bit dubious, as it has the race tied at 47% and that makes it a bit of an outlier. I’m not sure if the breakdown of 36D, 29R and 30I are meant to state the sample of the poll. If so, a 47% tie on a D+7 poll is rather encouraging.

    Indeed. If they have to oversample by 7 to get Obama even, he’s in big trouble… as evidenced by their “Romney’s garbageman” ad.

    The Obama tape will surely result in cries of Republican racism. I don’t see it losing Obama or Romney any votes that they can already count on. As far as Undecideds are concerned, I truly think this will damage Obama slightly. Hopefully that is enough. · 8 minutes ago

    That’s what both sides are fighting for now: the undecideds. And I think the usual outraged cries of “racism” will turn even more undecideds against Obama.

    • #6
    • October 3, 2012, at 5:39 AM PST
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  7. Barbara Kidder Inactive

    Thanks for the heads-up; I’m tuning in!

    • #7
    • October 3, 2012, at 5:53 AM PST
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  8. Devereaux Inactive

    Problem with that is that the MSM wouldn’t pick-up on anything Hannity puts forth.

    • #8
    • October 3, 2012, at 5:56 AM PST
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  9. liberal jim Inactive

    Don’t have much knowledge about poles, but one thing Obama seems to know how to do is win elections. He beat the Clinton machine and given the power of incumbency the chances of him losing to, what appears to be, a disjoint Romney effort are slim.

    • #9
    • October 3, 2012, at 5:57 AM PST
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  10. flownover Inactive
    Devereaux: Problem with that is that the MSM wouldn’t pick-up on anything Hannity puts forth. · 1 minute ago

    ditto that bro but hannity has 3 million and drudge has 35 !

    • #10
    • October 3, 2012, at 6:02 AM PST
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  11. ConservativeWanderer Inactive
    liberal jim: Don’t have much knowledge about poles, but one thing Obama seems to know how to do is win elections. He beat the Clinton machine and given the power of incumbency the chances of him losing to, what appears to be, a disjoint Romney effort are slim. · 1 minute ago

    You just keep on believing that.

    Lefty complacency is to Romney’s advantage.

    In fact, please believe that Obama is so sure to win, you can sit home on Election Day and not bother to get out of your La-Z-Boy.

    • #11
    • October 3, 2012, at 6:03 AM PST
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  12. Joseph Eagar Member

    Honestly? That was the big, nasty video sure to change the campaign? That’s Hannity’s October Surprise?

    • #12
    • October 3, 2012, at 6:09 AM PST
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  13. Jonah Feldman Inactive

    Black turnout was about 14% in 2008. 11% seems about right for 2012. It certainly isn’t too high. 

    • #13
    • October 3, 2012, at 6:09 AM PST
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  14. Illiniguy Member

    Paul Rahe: “Here is additional information strongly suggesting that Mitt Romney has a real shot at winning.”

    Real shot at winning? You promised a landslide and we’ll settle for nothing less. Don’t go all wobbly on us now.

    • #14
    • October 3, 2012, at 6:27 AM PST
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  15. etherwalker Inactive

    Maybe it’s only because you would be hard pressed to find somebody who thinks less of Obama than I do, but I don’t think that video is going to move a single vote.

    • #15
    • October 3, 2012, at 6:35 AM PST
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  16. Liver Pate Inactive

    Oh, I think that video’s going to leave a mark.

    Especially when you rewind all the disavowing of Rev Wright remarks and put them in a YouTube video.

    Reverend Barack of PreachALot.

    • #16
    • October 3, 2012, at 6:37 AM PST
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  17. Edward Smith Inactive

    I found the accent he put on to be insulting. Obama is not a natural Drawler and when he drops his g’s it still feels condescending.

    That said, any Black voter likely to be offended by him putting on that phony accent is probably not a likely Obama voter anyhow.

    There was a phrase I heard back in Baltimore that applies to him using that accent, and assuming it will make him “folksy”: “Ignorant”. And anyone who would use that phrase was already a Striver, more likely to lean Republican anyhow, because they had seen enough friends and family emasculated and drained by waiting for the monthly check.

    • #17
    • October 3, 2012, at 6:42 AM PST
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  18. Sisyphus Member

    I am glad you mentioned the Hannity tape, Paul. I just watched Hannity’s presentation of that tape with Tucker Carlson commenting, and by itself the bits of tape shown are damning by proper standards but not at all outside the range of mainstream political dissembling. And repeating the same few minutes over and over again combined with the over the top delivery by Hannity and, to some degree, Carlson, made the whole thing look like a bad snow job. Which is regrettable, because Obama was certainly delivering an “us versus them” divisive caterwaul (while pointing at the other side for doing it in classic Alinsky fashion, which Hannity and Carlson did not call him on) and delivering a classic drawling demagogic performance. But the hammy delivery and, on the 10% local money issue, failing to directly address and defuse Obama’s core point of evidence, a bit of an air ball. 

    I think the video can still work against Obama, I’m just sorry Fox and Hannity fumbled the opening salvo by pushing too hard.

    • #18
    • October 3, 2012, at 6:46 AM PST
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  19. Profile Photo Member

    Obama would be happier in his new mansion in Hawaii, penning a new book and collecting mega fees fir speeches. Maybe Republicans should play Hawaiian music every time Obama appears?

    • #19
    • October 3, 2012, at 6:49 AM PST
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  20. robberberen Inactive

    The media will see the video as irrefutable proof of Republican racism. That will be the story: Republicans shamelessly pushing a video designed to make Obama seem scary to white voters.

    • #20
    • October 3, 2012, at 6:55 AM PST
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  21. Barbara Kidder Inactive

    This video just confirms what we already know about President Obama and his ‘mentor’, Jeremiah Wright!

    It is the liberals who should be most disillusioned by this video, but, sadly, most will feel that ‘the end justifies the means’.

    It reminds me of Peter Robinson’s excuse for Senator Scott Brown’s liberal leanings, which was that because he has to get elected from Massachusetts, he has to appear more”independent’!

    A man of principle should follow this rule:

    “Let your yea be yea, and your nay be nay.” Matthew 5:33

    • #21
    • October 3, 2012, at 6:57 AM PST
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  22. Joseph Eagar Member
    Blake: The media will see the video as irrefutable proof of Republican racism. That will be the story: Republicans shamelessly pushing a video designed to make Obama seem scary to white voters. · 3 minutes ago

    But it’s an easy case to make. The only people who will care about this video are the political activists and junkies who have been attacked relentlessly on race for years. I don’t think this will resonate with anyone outside that group, especially people who haven’t been paying attention to begin with until now.

    • #22
    • October 3, 2012, at 7:01 AM PST
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  23. Western Chauvinist Member

    Really, people? No one wants to talk about the poll showing a preference for Democratic control of Congress? The idea that Nancy Pelosi is the preferred Speaker of the House has me reaching for a razor! Gah!! And the country wants to keep Harry Reid as Senate leader? OMG! 

    • #23
    • October 3, 2012, at 7:15 AM PST
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  24. Barbara Kidder Inactive
    Sisyphus: I am glad you mentioned the Hannity tape, Paul. I just watched Hannity’s presentation of that tape with Tucker Carlson commenting, and by itself the bits of tape shown are damning by proper standards but not at all outside the range of mainstream political dissembling. And repeating the same few minutes over and over again combined with the over the top delivery by Hannity and, to some degree, Carlson, made the whole thing look like a bad snow job.

    I agree.

     Hannity was not the right venue for the airing of this expose; he is invariably too emotional.

    Perhaps, this footage would have had a more damning effect if it had been released as a youtube video by a well-respected organization; a sort of ‘Swiftboating’ of Obama.

    Sadly, it will not have as much shock value as if it had been released during his first campaign, when the public had not yet become used to his race-baiting politics.

    • #24
    • October 3, 2012, at 7:37 AM PST
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  25. DocJay Inactive

    Well, since it’s only the future of America and therefore the world, I’m with you Paul. I know where Obama will lead us. I hope where Romney can lead us. Let us all pray for that better tomorrow. This debate is huge.

    • #25
    • October 3, 2012, at 7:47 AM PST
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  26. Mothership_Greg Inactive

    Will FactCheck.org or Politifact be discussing Barack Obama’s statements regarding the Stafford Act?

    Chop chop, apparatchiks.

    • #26
    • October 3, 2012, at 7:54 AM PST
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  27. Barbara Kidder Inactive
    DocJay: Well, since it’s only the future of America and therefore the world, I’m with you Paul. I know where Obama will lead us. I hope where Romney can lead us. Let us all pray for that better tomorrow. This debate is huge. · 8 minutes ago

    Half the voting population lives on another planet!

    Romans 1:25

    • #27
    • October 3, 2012, at 8:15 AM PST
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  28. DawninCFL Inactive

    It exposes him as a liar. Money had already been promised to Katrina victims free and clear before he made those comments and he knew that, too. Did you here his justification for the race riots in LA? You don’t have a future… you don’t get the jobs or education you deserve. It is an ugly form of pandering. This from a guy who said we are ALL Americans. I agree the hype took away the focus from the content.

    • #28
    • October 3, 2012, at 8:16 AM PST
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  29. Percival Thatcher

    They base a lot on the 2008 election exit polls. I was not one of those conservatives that didn’t come out because McCain was such a disastrously bad candidate; he was a disastrously bad candidate, but I thought Obama would be an even more disastrous President. When I left the polling place, a nice young lady with a clipboard inquired if she could ask me a few questions, but I turned her down. The guy who had walked past her before me had turned her down too, as did at least one other person who came up after me. As I was getting out of earshot, I did overhear her talking to a rather enthusiastic Obama voter.

    I wonder how good their assumptions truly are? They are basing an awful lot on what is, when one considers it, a poll on a population almost as self-selected as any you’ll find on the Internet.

    • #29
    • October 3, 2012, at 8:17 AM PST
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  30. Mothership_Greg Inactive

    I watched the whole video. It was nice to hear candidate Obama mention Jesus Christ – I guess the theocracy is already upon us. It was also nice to hear him talk about “media elites” – I assume it’s trenchant and cool when he says this phrase, while it’s paranoid and conspiratorial when Newt Gingrich says it.

    My favorite part is when he says

    “We don’t need slogans – we need federal dollars.”

    Forward!

    • #30
    • October 3, 2012, at 8:54 AM PST
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