Yet Another Poll

 

Before the debate starts, you might want to glance at Politico’s Battleground Poll. It shows Obama ahead in the overall vote by a small margin, but it suggests that Romney is ahead in the battleground states. Here is Mike Flynn’s take:

Despite coming from the left-wing news site, the poll is one of my favorites. Its put together by respected pollsters from both parties, makes available its full cross-tabs and uses a very modest and reasonable turnout model for its sample. Including leaners, the sample in the poll is D+2. Nationally, Obama leads by 2-3 points, but, in the critical swing states, Romney now has the edge.

Each candidate leads in states considered “safe” for their party. In safe GOP states, Romney leads by 8. In safe Democrat states, Obama leads by a massive 22 points. But, in the more numerous and more important “toss up” states, Romney leads by 4, hitting the critical 50% threshold. 

In the slightly different category of “battleground” states identified by Politico, Romney leads by 2, 49-47. Romney’s lead over Obama is powered primarily by his edge with independents. Romney leads Obama by 4 among the important swing voters. By 11 points, these voters think Romney would do better on the economy than Obama, 51-40. 

Romney also has a big edge with middle class families, who prefer him over Obama by 15 points, 56-41. 

The media has anxiously portrayed tonight’s debate as a critical moment for Romney to propel his campaign into the final stretch. They have built their analysis around the false narrative that Romney is losing ground against Obama. The Politico poll, however, shows that it is Obama who is losing ground in the campaign. The President needs a knock-out punch tonight.

Things are not as they have been portrayed by Barack Obama’s “unofficial campaign.”

There are 7 comments.

  1. Paul A. Rahe Contributor
    Paul A. Rahe Post author
    Keith Preston: This is a more realistic poll. Based on recent Rasmussen voter ideology ID polls, this may be an election closer to R +2 or 3. In that case, the Colorado group will have nailed it again.

    I’ll go out on a limb. Romney 53 – Obama 46. 330 electoral votes. · 7 hours ago

    That sounds about right.

    • #1
    • October 4, 2012, at 5:23 AM PDT
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  2. Liver Pate Inactive

    Obama got spanked tonight, but good. And its a spanking he’s earned, one hole at a time.

    • #2
    • October 4, 2012, at 7:43 AM PDT
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  3. Doctor Bass Monkey Inactive

    How big a shift will we see after this debate if they actually polled a fairer sample? It would look like an even bigger swing towards Romney.

    • #3
    • October 4, 2012, at 7:58 AM PDT
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  4. ctruppi Inactive

    If you can believe the Lunz focus groups on Hannity, then this has been a monumental success for Romney.

    • #4
    • October 4, 2012, at 8:15 AM PDT
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  5. Indaba Inactive

    Prof Rahe: Looks as if you should have put up a Ricochet poll who would win tonight’s debate and had a latte from everyone who was wrong. You would be sipping coffee fir free for a long time.

    • #5
    • October 4, 2012, at 8:27 AM PDT
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  6. KingsKnight1 Inactive

    I’m more confident in your predction, Prof. Rahe, after tonight’s debate.

    • #6
    • October 4, 2012, at 8:50 AM PDT
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  7. Profile Photo Member

    This is a more realistic poll. Based on recent Rasmussen voter ideology ID polls, this may be an election closer to R +2 or 3. In that case, the Colorado group will have nailed it again.

    I’ll go out on a limb. Romney 53 – Obama 46. 330 electoral votes.

    • #7
    • October 4, 2012, at 10:10 AM PDT
    • Like