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An Unexpected Argument for Electric Cars
Leaving all the politics of climate change and all that aside, here is something to take notice of.
An all-electric car that is faster than a Formula 1 car. In certain configurations, it produces more downforce in kilograms than it actually weighs.
Published in General
Spin didn’t make his theme clear, though he has since elaborated.
He was disputing my predictions about energy storage in transportation, which is very closely related to energy expenditure, I hope you would agree. As noted by Arahant, my prediction is based on fundamental physics, and how transportation is not subject to the miniaturization miracles of electronics.
Excuse me? Energy is stored in chemical bonds. In liquid fuels, every molecule participates in energy storage. In batteries, the chemical bonds that store and release energy comprise a fraction of the molecules required. This is a fundamental physical constraint.
I wasn’t addressing cost at all. You’ve imputed that to me. I stand by my response to Spin’s digital photography analogy and by my rejection of your attempt to mischaracterize it.
I won’t go quite this far. My critique is of battery technologies, not specifically of electric cars. I’m in the hybrid camp. My point is that batteries suffer from fundamental physical constraints on energy density that will never permit them to fully displace liquid fuels. Batteries are well-suited to capturing the energy from regenerative braking and supplying high currents for harsh acceleration. I’m not prepared to rule out advances in fuel-cell technologies that might replace internal combustion engines as prime movers in gensets, but I think such are unlikely.
Spin can construe my critique as narrow-mindedness if he pleases.
That article alludes to the problem when comparing the mass of a Tesla battery bank against the mass of the energy-equivalent barrel of oil. Energy density of existing Li-Ion devices is supposedly better than 80% or 90% of the theoretical max possible. Meaning that contrast between liquid fuel energy density and Li-Ion energy density is not going to change much. Maybe a new pair of electrode materials will be found with a higher density, but such are bound by the shell energy levels at atomic scales versus the energy of free electrons. Not much room for improvement within physical bounds.
That article does have a nice section on the misapplication of Moore’s Law, which is basically my complaint about Spin’s use of digital photography in his analogy. Do you have a different analogy, @spin, that makes your argument? Without digital magic, and with a suitable multiple-orders-of-magnitude difference?
Until you blow him away off the line. Results matter more than playing “p**s up a tree.”
I would never argue against that.
From what I read the same model (although probably not the same individual vehicle) currently holds the overall course record for the Pike’s Peak hill climb, which is 12 miles long and involves quite a bit of elevation gain.
That is mentioned in the video, too.
Not so much cars here, but it still applies — this story came out over the weekend that said all-electric buses suffer an almost 38 percent decrease in range in cold weather. Gas powered engines also get less mileage in sub-freezing temperatures, but that’s a pretty big drop to account for, if you’re on more than just a short-distance trip and can recharge when you reach your destination.
That’s why at least for now, you’re likely to see an urban/rural divide on electric car purchases, with suburban drivers somewhere in the middle (possibly with one electricin the near future for getting to and from work, and one gas or hybrid, for when you actually have to do long distance trips and don’t want too many recharging delays, or unexpected needs for charging if really cold weather is sucking the batter dry faster than planned).
My experience owning an electric car in Rochester NY was a 25-30% decrease in range in winter, so consistent. But, I lived in a relatively close-in suburb well within range. Plus, there was a public charging station in the parking garage near work, and I had a charging plug at home, and I used the car almost exclusively for commuting to work and running errands around town. We had a gasoline powered car for other trips.
Different configurations. In the only drag race I was ever in, about half of their configurations would have run out of charge before the race was finished.
Living in a small town rural area, I’ve had to do a lot of both business and leisure driving over the past three months since I got my new SUV. Thanks to that and the Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year’s travel seasons, I already have put 10,000 miles on the thing.
But when I was out in California, I did ride in my cousin’s Tesla (Jeez, that map display screen is huge), and for driving around in the area of warm weather San Diego, there’s nothing wrong with an electric. It’s just not a great option yet for distance driving on a regular basis.
What the heck are youse guys talking about?!
This is my chance to disagree with most of my Ricochet friends.
Here goes: First, too many of you are stuck in the stupid politics of this issue to think clearly. Yes, advocating for electric cars because of environmental concerns is a lame argument. Those people are annoying to me too. And they are wrong. Electric cars aren’t saving the environment. Maybe once we get more nuclear generators they will.
Second, who travels more than 300 miles in a day? Yeah some do. I do some long distance driving myself. But most driving is under 100 miles in a day. Battery range is growing every year also. Stipulating the claims here are valid-that there’s a ceiling to battery capacity- EVs already have sufficient range for most people, and charging stations are becoming more ubiquitous and charging times are coming down rapidly.
Hybrids will not dominate the future either because fully electric will soon be far superior. Here’s why:
No cooling system or coolant
No exhaust system
No oil
No transmission(!)
There is considerably less maintenance with an EV.
Hybrids are only good because of unlimited range. But once more charging stations are around and charging times go down range won’t be an issue.
Further, because of regenerative braking, break pads don’t wear out as often.
The price of gas and electricity vary by location, but EV’s operate at about .17 cents per mile, while gas powered cars are in the .40 -.55 cent range! Electric cars cost more ( now) but over their lifetimes they are cheaper.
Battery life is at 500,000 miles and motor life is the same. Soon to double, if projections from engineers working on the issues are to be believed. There are fewer moving parts in an electric motor and fewer systems to fail.
Tesla is on the cutting edge of these technologies, but even more game-changing is autonomous driving which will be there in a few years. It’s already close.
I beg y’all to ignore the environmental arguments and just look at the technology.
We are certainly allowed to appreciate our muscle cars and the sweet smell of diesel in the morning, while simultaneously watching superior technology/systems come into being.
Maybe companies will go to a four day workweek to allow the cars enough time to charge.
Definitely take those with a grain of salt, but yes, they will increase.
I have a Chevy Suburban with 318,000 miles. I’m very happy with it, but if it goes 500,000 I’ll be ecstatic!
I don’t have a problem with accepting the new technology. The problem is always how it is sold. People say it’s going to do more than it can. People say it’s going to improve by X number of times in the near future, when that can only be true if the technology changes radically again. But, yes, there are some cool toys out there, and some of the electric cars are good tools under the right circumstances. But some folks are tellin’ me it’s the hammer and every problem is a nail. That just isn’t so.
The electric car, including this one, has great acceleration because all the torque is at the low end. The opposite is true for steam engines. In the railroad world, it is said that a steam engine can pull a train it can’t start, while a diesel can start a train it can’t pull. Remember, what we know as a diesel locomotive is in reality an electric locomotive that carries a motor generator to supply the electric power.
None of this solves the problem with electric cars, regardless of performance. It is still a problem to charge, and limited in range. You question that? How many batteries can that electric pickup carry to extend its range. How far would you be able to go with a gas pickup if you load the back end with gas cans? Hmmmmm?
My boss’ suburban just got a new engine after hitting the 500,000 mile mark, and his ranch is 25 miles away from the nearest charging station right now, so he and his wife definitely are not going to be reliant on an EV anytime soon because of the location (interstate driving with a Tesla or a Leaf in 2020 is pretty easy as long as you can pinpoint the charging stations along the way; driving the back roads in one is still a bit of a dicey proposition, until enough electrics are on the road to make rural charging sites viable).
Do car manufacturers really want to sell you a car that will drive for 500,000 miles?
Also, I’m going by anecdotal reports of people being extremely happy with their new EV’s. Heard one report of people getting bad service. Ok. You can get bad service with regular cars too. Anyway, we know Elon Musk exaggerates. I’m beginning to like people who exaggerate as long as they are challenging themselves and others. Like you-know-who.
Indeed. You-know-who grew up in a church where affirmations are used. He is not lying or exaggerating, he is affirming. Scott Adams understands YKW pretty well, partially because Scott also uses affirmations, and recognized what was going on with YKW. Perhaps Elon is doing the same? I haven’t studied him well enough to know.
I also get those, and they are from conservatives. As I said, EVs can be great tools for some jobs.
I am looking for a replacement to my old ViewMaster Stereo camera. What’s with the stagnation in 3D photography??
But the density of 1 battery is not the only factor. What matters is the energy density of 5,000 batteries mashed together. Temperature control is probably the limiting factor and new materials will enable lots of improvement.
They probably would like you to dumpster your car and get a new one every year. But they have to compete.
Life is hard.
Franco,
Thermodynamics will not be denied, they use a coolant system to get that “long life” you wish to advertise for certain type of battery power cars.
The current Nissan leaf uses “air cooling” and is having to replace their owners batteries before the 100K mark on their own nickel.
Li-Ion have their own set of peccadilloes, and thermal control is one of them, especially on orbit….
or on the flight ramp
In 2014, we quite happily traded our 1988 Ford econoline van for some $ 450 and then put that money toward the down payment on a 2009 Prius. At taht point, the van was costing us around $ 300 a monthly in repairs.
Prius is very intelligently designed. It is a hybrid, using both gasoline and electricity. The one complaint we both have is that if at purchase time, we had had another $ 3,500 worth of credit we might have gone with a Ford SUV hybrid styled vehicle. The thought of having to evacuate our household during a wildfire with only a Prius to put things in doesn’t make me happy.
The Ford hybrid also has a bit more horse power, at least that is my understanding. We both love muscle cars. My fave was the 1973 Maverick I drove for ten years when we lived in Marin. And the 1992 Thunderbird we drove til the transmission crapped out in 2007.
Also, we are paying it off in full this next month. Except for tires, wind shield wipers and occasionally brake pads, the only other major expense on this car was the auxiliary battery late in November 2019. Well, this repair required some $ 250 for the part and some $ 100 labor. That battery should be good for another seven to ten years.
All in all not a bad situation for a ten year old car. Have I mentioned that it gets in the 38 to 43 mph range? Also, supposedly it can outgun a Porsche in terms of going from 0 to sixty mph?
Plus later in 2020 when we sell it, we will list it at $ 6,500 and probably get very close to that.
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Heh, I suspect you mean MPG.
Sorry Carol,
Going to call bogus on this one. Them Priui’s (what is the plural of Prius?) only can muster 0 to 60 in about 10 seconds, not since the 70’s is a Porsche that slow. Today’s Porsche offerings (not including (shudder) their SUV option) are less than 5 seconds. That halving of acceleration rate comes at a large surplus of horsepower, and a light weight chassis to get those differences.
Now if you wish to argue about some of Musk’s offerings, yes those totally electric vehicles (despite some significant weight penalties, so careful when you get to the turns) can best the Porsche’s at a significantly lower fractional cost of a minimum walk away Porsche price.
I just hope I never have to learn the devils’ need to fix a Tesla. Screwing around trying to debug with my sister’s 6 year old Camry hybrid has me despondent of developing an entirely new bag o’ tricks to fix.
(I loath amorphous black boxes with unaccountable electron movements)
That’s what I was trying to say.
The arguments against all electric vehicles are certainly fine. They are problems to be solved, and they won’t be solved by ignoring them. There is no magic sci-fi bullet that will make batteries something they aren’t and never will be. I’ve actually shared the article from Mills with folks in our engineering department, some of who actually know the guy (which surprised me). There are things our company is doing with lead-acid and lithium-ion to increase density, reduce cost, and increase recycle-ability (particularly with lithium ion). But gains will be incremental, as noted.
That said, my point, as Franco say, is to ignore the politics and the hatred of prius drivers (which is noble and to be encouraged) and just look at the whole picture. If there was no there, there, then automobile and racing companies wouldn’t be investing time and money in to them.
I’m with Phil above: I think that ultimately hybrids will become the norm. But I can foresee a future when production and storage of electricity become cost effective enough to replace hybrids for moving a vehicle down the road in specific cases. Not all, perhaps.