Contributor Post Created with Sketch. Recommended by Ricochet Members Created with Sketch. Can You Pull a Number Out of Your Squeaky Bum?

 

Here we are, folks. Thursday is election day for our cousins over in the UK. (And no, Uncommon Knowledge doesn’t have its own country.) In the great British tradition, lay down a bob or two and place your bets.

ElectoralCalculus, the English equivalent of the RealPolitics Polling Average, is currently sitting at a 46 seat Conservative Majority. BUT – because polling is so tight it could go as high as 94 OR deliver another hung Parliament (13% chance.)

The Scottish National Party is probably safe in 40-43 constituencies. In Northern Ireland the DUP, which Mrs. May used to cobble together a coalition last election, will probably hold about 10. Sinn Féin, who currently have 7 seats but have never, ever voted in the House, will probably hold 6. Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, which does so well in the European Parliamentary elections is polling only 3.1% nationally and will be lucky if they seat 1 MP in their inaugural general election.

But what say you? And make sure you join us Friday for the London Calling Election Special, where Messrs Delingpole and Young will either be dancing or moving their assets offshore.

There are 26 comments.

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  1. James Gawron Thatcher
    James Gawron Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    EJ Hill,

    This is it then. Big Casino. Everything riding on one roll of the dice on a single day that the public goes to the polls to vote. You know what EJ, would you have it any other way?

    Democracy has got balls. Bring it!

    Regards,

    Jim

    • #1
    • December 11, 2019, at 3:19 PM PST
    • 6 likes
  2. Boss Mongo Member

    EJHill: Here we are, folks. It is election eve for our cousins over in the UK. (And no, Uncommon Knowledge doesn’t have its own country.)

    Nice.

    • #2
    • December 11, 2019, at 7:26 PM PST
    • 1 like
  3. Barfly Member

    Prayers for the mother country tonight.

    • #3
    • December 11, 2019, at 7:32 PM PST
    • 4 likes
  4. Snirtler Inactive

    If they don’t stop Corbyn, they deserve to get it good and hard.

    • #4
    • December 11, 2019, at 8:09 PM PST
    • 4 likes
  5. Joseph Stanko Coolidge
    Joseph Stanko Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    EJHill: Sinn Féin, who currently have 7 seats but have never, ever voted in the House, will probably hold 6.

    I’ve never understood the reasoning behind that. If you want to make a point about the illegitimacy of Parliament or something, fine, but then why are you standing for election in the first place? Why not just stay home and not vote at all?

    If they really wanted to be annoying, they could take their seats, and the on every vote wait to see which way the DUP votes and vote the other way, just to cancel them out.

    • #5
    • December 11, 2019, at 11:44 PM PST
    • 1 like
  6. Joseph Stanko Coolidge
    Joseph Stanko Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    I’ll predict: 30 seat Conservative Majority

    • #6
    • December 11, 2019, at 11:50 PM PST
    • 2 likes
  7. Phil Turmel Coolidge

    I have business acquaintances over there. I’ll be checking in for their reaction late today….

    • #7
    • December 12, 2019, at 5:29 AM PST
    • 1 like
  8. colleenb Member
    colleenb Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    @ejhill: I thought they would be moving their a**e**es offshore too based on the last podcast. Since I’m not putting money down I’ll say a 60 seat majority. And Tobes and James can move into my house for a few days while they look for permanent housing if Corbyn wins – and presuming they can get out of the UK before they’re sent to the camps. 

    • #8
    • December 12, 2019, at 8:40 AM PST
    • 3 likes
  9. Hang On Member
    Hang On Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Conservative majority of 38.

    It’s a Brexit vs. Remain, Capitalism vs. Communism election.

    • #9
    • December 12, 2019, at 10:56 AM PST
    • 1 like
  10. Snirtler Inactive

    Thurs the 12th, 10:30pm London time, from The Guardian:

    UK general election 2019: exit poll predicts 86-seat Conservative majority – live news

    Fingers crossed the exit poll is borne out by the actual results.

    • #10
    • December 12, 2019, at 2:34 PM PST
    • 4 likes
  11. La Tapada Member

    What I want to know is, what is the connotation of the expression, “squeaky bum?” 

    • #11
    • December 12, 2019, at 4:10 PM PST
    • Like
  12. EJHill Podcaster
    EJHill Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    La TapadaWhat I want to know is, what is the connotation of the expression, “squeaky bum?”

    The American equivalent would be “making you sweat.”

    • #12
    • December 12, 2019, at 4:21 PM PST
    • 4 likes
  13. Goldwaterwoman Thatcher

    EJHill: Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, which does so well in the European Parliamentary elections is polling only 3.1% nationally and will be lucky if they seat 1 MP in their inaugural general election.

    Boris kind of stole Farage’s thunder. Still, Farage deserves a lot of credit for non-stop campaigning for Brexit. The press and the remainers made fun of him and did everything they could to drive him underground, but he just would not give up.

    • #13
    • December 12, 2019, at 4:31 PM PST
    • 6 likes
  14. Barfly Member

    I’ve had Sky News on in the background for a little while. From my perspective the forces of light have given the dark side a thorough drubbing. My takeaways:

    • huge Tory victory. I assume Boris will be able to govern without anyone’s alliance.
    • Labour did worse than the Conservatives did well. Labour got their rear end amputated and pulled down over their ears.
    • I saw several returns where the Cons merely held even with last time but Labour still lost significant numbers of seats. [Edit: I meant Labour lost significant numbers of votes. It’s only one seat per district.]

    I take this as a resounding rejection of the vile Corbyn, and tremendous but distinct support for Johnson. There’s other goodness, like the fate of the oxymoronic and moronic Liberal Democrats. Hee hee.

    Some lame Green is crying now on Sky about how horrible this result is for progressives. This stuff is awesome, y’all should be watching.

    • #14
    • December 12, 2019, at 5:12 PM PST
    • 7 likes
  15. La Tapada Member

    EJHill (View Comment):

    La Tapada: What I want to know is, what is the connotation of the expression, “squeaky bum?”

    The American equivalent would be “making you sweat.”

    Thank you, @ejhill. I’m glad to know that (and glad that the answer wasn’t something embarrasing, which I was afraid it might be). :-)

    • #15
    • December 12, 2019, at 5:18 PM PST
    • 2 likes
  16. Barfly Member

    I want this kind of result on our side of the Atlantic next year. You think you got to taste liberal tears in 2016? I am slugging down progressive grief over here like it was Pilsner beer on a summer day.

    • #16
    • December 12, 2019, at 5:34 PM PST
    • 3 likes
  17. Barfly Member

    Bits of the lingo still evade me. What does it mean that the Lib Dems have “lost their deposit” in this or that district? 

    Hah hah hahhh.

    • #17
    • December 12, 2019, at 6:01 PM PST
    • Like
  18. Phil Turmel Coolidge

    My business acquaintances over there are about out of patience. Boris had better deliver.

    • #18
    • December 12, 2019, at 6:07 PM PST
    • 2 likes
  19. Barfly Member

    Nigel Farage is on now. I think his party gets no seats tonight. He’s fine with that, and said he had some candidates stand down to be sure those districts didn’t go left. What is the right word for their electoral districts, I haven’t picked that up yet? He’s supportive of Johnson, but rightly calls out that Johnson’s proposed Brexit deal isn’t all that good.

    Lesson for us: If we ever want an overwhelming electoral victory, we’ll have to be happy with 3/4 of a loaf like Farage.

    • #19
    • December 12, 2019, at 6:11 PM PST
    • 5 likes
  20. Barfly Member

    John Bercow is part of the commentary team I’m watching. You remember, the poison dwarf they elected Speaker of their House of Commons. Quite the clown sometimes, and I had him figured for a barely closeted Remainer, but he grows on one. Most of the people they’ve had on from both sides have projected a good nature, – except for a few miserable Labourites, notably their Shadow government.

    • #20
    • December 12, 2019, at 6:22 PM PST
    • 1 like
  21. EJHill Podcaster
    EJHill Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    BarflyBits of the lingo still evade me. What does it mean that the Lib Dems have “lost their deposit” in this or that district?

    It’s the deposit they put down to stand on the ballot. If you win a certain percentage of the vote you get the money back. It keeps the independents and smaller parties that aren’t serious contenders off the ballot.

     

    • #21
    • December 12, 2019, at 6:30 PM PST
    • 5 likes
  22. Barfly Member

    EJHill (View Comment):

    Barfly: Bits of the lingo still evade me. What does it mean that the Lib Dems have “lost their deposit” in this or that district?

    It’s the deposit they put down to stand on the ballot. If you win a certain percentage of the vote you get the money back. It keeps the independents and smaller parties that aren’t serious contenders off the ballot.

     

    Brilliant. Skin in the game.

    • #22
    • December 12, 2019, at 6:33 PM PST
    • 1 like
  23. Hang On Member
    Hang On Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    EJHill (View Comment):

    Barfly: Bits of the lingo still evade me. What does it mean that the Lib Dems have “lost their deposit” in this or that district?

    It’s the deposit they put down to stand on the ballot. If you win a certain percentage of the vote you get the money back. It keeps the independents and smaller parties that aren’t serious contenders off the ballot.

     

    Some of the small parties have some very eccentric candidates straight out of Monty Python. It’s one of those things I find refreshing about British politics. But you havw to be there to hear about them. It’s like tbat guy whose motto was ‘the damned rents too high’. 

    • #23
    • December 12, 2019, at 6:38 PM PST
    • 2 likes
  24. Barfly Member

    Lots of long shots of Jeremy Corbyn pacing around shellshocked. Not as bad as Joe Biden, but still. He’s got an interesting entourage – preceded by a hood in a hoodie, accompanied by a stunning young black lady, she’s helping him keep it together, and trailed by a rotating crew of colorless neuters, male and female.

    • #24
    • December 12, 2019, at 6:39 PM PST
    • 3 likes
  25. colleenb Member
    colleenb Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    @ejhill: Did anyone get closer than 60? If so do I win the all expenses paid trip to London (I would like at least business class please) with stayovers at both Toby and James’ homes and maybe even #10.

    • #25
    • December 13, 2019, at 9:03 AM PST
    • 2 likes
  26. EJHill Podcaster
    EJHill Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    colleenb: If so do I win the all expenses paid trip to London (I would like at least business class please) with stayovers at both Toby and James’ homes and maybe even #10.

    You’re cute.

    • #26
    • December 13, 2019, at 9:59 AM PST
    • 1 like

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