QotD: What Is and Is Not a Conspiracy Theory

 

To count as a conspiracy, a plan involving two or more parties must be covert. Not even Alex Jones would talk of a Democratic Party conspiracy to field a candidate who can beat Trump. The term “conspiracy theory” is to be used and understood accordingly. Had Lee Harvey Oswald spoken just before his death of a second gunman on the grassy knoll, one would not be a conspiracy theorist for taking him seriously. The information could still be wrong, but someone disagreeing with it would have to engage in actual refutation. The same goes for all who seek to dismiss talk of the ROK government’s confederation drive as a conspiracy theory.—Brian Reynolds Myers

B. R. Myers was speaking of conspiracy theories in responding to another writer and in relation to perceptions of the South Korean President. Yet his point is more widely applicable. It’s not a conspiracy theory if the people involved are coming right out and saying, “Yes, we did this, and here is why.” As a perfect example of this, we have several people testifying before Congress while admitting to crimes because Orange Man Bad. Those crimes need to be prosecuted.

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  1. Vectorman Inactive
    Vectorman
    @Vectorman

    Gee, I wake up in the middle of the night, do my Quote of the Day thing, and the PIT breaks out.

    There must be a conspiracy here…

    • #31
  2. Jon1979 Inactive
    Jon1979
    @Jon1979

    From an old issue of TV Guide:

    (7) (8) WELCOME BACK KOTTER [Color] — Horsheack gives Mr. Kotter a cryptic excuse note from Juan’s mom saying Epstein didn’t kill himself, and Mr. Woodman thinks Barbarino is somehow involved after seeing them on the Verrazano Bridge. [Rerun]

    • #32
  3. Arahant Member
    Arahant
    @Arahant

    Vectorman (View Comment):
    Gee, I wake up in the middle of the night, do my Quote of the Day thing, and the PIT breaks out.

    You were the one who asked a PITster to do the QotD. 😜

    • #33
  4. Fake John/Jane Galt Coolidge
    Fake John/Jane Galt
    @FakeJohnJaneGalt

    Gary McVey (View Comment):

    I recall when 9/11 “truther” Rosie O’ Donnell claimed “Fire can’t melt steel”, someone–probably Greg Gutfeld–made a grimly hilarious montage of speeded-up stock newsreel shots of bright, glowing liquid metal being poured and formed.

    Of course, real conspiracies do exist. When I have to evaluate one, here are some of the questions I have:

    Is this source credible? Do we even know who the source is?

    Is it even physically possible?

    Is it suspiciously convenient, tying something we hate into someone we hate? That doesn’t automatically make it wrong, but it should give some pause before automatically assuming it’s right.

    A simple example is OJ. Have police ever framed a Black man? Yes. We can’t rule out a conspiracy yet. What if the irrefutable timeline means that two or three dozen people, most of whom don’t even know each other, some of whom are actually at home asleep, had to have been in on the conspiracy, even though it could have landed any of them in jail for years? Technically possible, but getting pretty remote. Let’s say, though, that if all of white America is burning with racism, maybe you couldn’t rule it out. But let’s also say this particular Black man has been enormously popular with whites for his entire adult life, including the LAPD? Getting kinda slim odds.

    Oh, and did I mention that his DNA is unique among 6 billion living people?

    Every black man ever arrested was framed.

    • #34
  5. danok1 Member
    danok1
    @danok1

    Judge Mental (View Comment):

    The funniest part of Rosie’s theory was that about three weeks later a gasoline tanker crashed on a freeway overpass and caught fire, and the bridge collapsed from the heat.

    It doesn’t have to melt. She doesn’t understand tempered steel, or pre-stressed concrete, or anything else about how fire affects things.

    FIFY

    • #35
  6. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    Arahant (View Comment):

    Vectorman (View Comment):
    Is you example here “Gary McVey shot Kennedy”? LOL!

    I like to have fun with the tags. Gary was only 11 at the time.

    But I heard he was pretty good with a slingshot.

    And he was seen on the grassy knoll . . .

    • #36
  7. Susan Quinn Contributor
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    Now we need to make sure the Democrats get this message! They think they can reject ideas by calling them conspiracies and because they just don’t like them. Great post, @arahant!

    • #37
  8. Arahant Member
    Arahant
    @Arahant

    Susan Quinn (View Comment):
    Now we need to make sure the Democrats get this message! They think they can reject ideas by calling them conspiracies and because they just don’t like them.

    Or at least they’re willing to try dismissing things this way.

    • #38
  9. Boss Mongo Member
    Boss Mongo
    @BossMongo

    Arahant: To count as a conspiracy, a plan involving two or more parties must be covert.

    The Mexicans have a saying:  A secret is only a secret if just two people know it, and one of them is dead.

    • #39
  10. Judge Mental Member
    Judge Mental
    @JudgeMental

    Boss Mongo (View Comment):

    Arahant: To count as a conspiracy, a plan involving two or more parties must be covert.

    The Mexicans have a saying: A secret is only a secret if just two people know it, and one of them is dead.

    Mexicans suck at conspiracies.

    • #40
  11. RightAngles Member
    RightAngles
    @RightAngles

    When I said on this site some months ago that we’re seeing an attempted coup d’etat, a moderator redacted me for conspiracy theory.

    • #41
  12. Arahant Member
    Arahant
    @Arahant

    Judge Mental (View Comment):

    Boss Mongo (View Comment):

    Arahant: To count as a conspiracy, a plan involving two or more parties must be covert.

    The Mexicans have a saying: A secret is only a secret if just two people know it, and one of them is dead.

    Mexicans suck at conspiracies.

    But they’re good at keeping secrets.

    • #42
  13. Arahant Member
    Arahant
    @Arahant

    RightAngles (View Comment):

    When I said on this site some months ago that we’re seeing an attempted coup d’etat, a moderator redacted me for conspiracy theory.

    Much more information has come to light in that time.

    • #43
  14. Jason Obermeyer Member
    Jason Obermeyer
    @JasonObermeyer

    One thing about conspiracy theories is that people treat what is plausible as what definitely happened. Sometimes they start as “sure, that might have happened” and jump to “this is definitely what happened” without much evidence. To expand on @garymcvey‘s example, is it plausible to believe the police might frame a black man. It is plausible to think Mark Furman might have wanted to frame OJ if he could. But more evidence should be required to act on those suspicions. 

    That said, the opposite problem is people dismissing plausible theories as being without evidence before their is any chance for evidence to be obtained. 

    • #44
  15. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    RightAngles (View Comment):

    When I said on this site some months ago that we’re seeing an attempted coup d’etat, a moderator redacted me for conspiracy theory.

    Strange, because we know from e-mails people were working together against Trump.

    • #45
  16. RightAngles Member
    RightAngles
    @RightAngles

    Arahant (View Comment):

    RightAngles (View Comment):

    When I said on this site some months ago that we’re seeing an attempted coup d’etat, a moderator redacted me for conspiracy theory.

    Much more information has come to light in that time.

    No, actually I was able to provide a list of links of various eminent personages who also said it was a coup d’etat.

    • #46
  17. Barfly Member
    Barfly
    @Barfly

    Matt Balzer, Imperialist Claw (View Comment):

    Clavius (View Comment):

    The conspiracy is the effort to remove a duly elected president.

    If I’m understanding the quote correctly that’s not a conspiracy because it’s not covert.

    What, Hillary going thru two levels of cutout to buy fake Russian oppo, then Brennan and Comey turning it into a secret intel investigation, and McCain and Reid hiding in there somewhere – this isn’t covert?

    • #47
  18. Misthiocracy grudgingly Member
    Misthiocracy grudgingly
    @Misthiocracy

    A “conspiracy” is two or more people working in concert to do something illegal.

    Using the constitutionally-defined process for removing a President from office is therefore not a conspiracy.

    (Aside: I’m not convinced that it has to be covert to be a conspiracy.  It merely has to be illegal.  Conspirators who don’t cover their tracks may be fools, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t conspirators.)

    • #48
  19. Judge Mental Member
    Judge Mental
    @JudgeMental

    Misthiocracy grudgingly (View Comment):

    A “conspiracy” is two or more people working in concert to do something illegal.

    That’s the definition of a criminal conspiracy.  Planning a surprise birthday party is a conspiracy.

    • #49
  20. Matt Balzer, Imperialist Claw Member
    Matt Balzer, Imperialist Claw
    @MattBalzer

    Barfly (View Comment):

    Matt Balzer, Imperialist Claw (View Comment):

    Clavius (View Comment):

    The conspiracy is the effort to remove a duly elected president.

    If I’m understanding the quote correctly that’s not a conspiracy because it’s not covert.

    What, Hillary going thru two levels of cutout to buy fake Russian oppo, then Brennan and Comey turning it into a secret intel investigation, and McCain and Reid hiding in there somewhere – this isn’t covert?

     I was thinking more of the Democrats and media (but I repeat myself) saying that he is: illegitimately elected, a Russian agent, mentally incompetent, and so forth. I guess there’s no reason there can’t be covert operations taking place along the overt ones.

    • #50
  21. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Gary McVey (View Comment):

    Clavius (View Comment):

    The conspiracy is the effort to remove a duly elected president.

    I remember that book! There may even be a copy in our house, but if so it hasn’t seen the light of day for the past 20 years or so.  If I remember correctly, the footnotes/endnotes were to a bunch of newspaper clippings, which made it less than impressive.  

    • #51
  22. Misthiocracy grudgingly Member
    Misthiocracy grudgingly
    @Misthiocracy

    Stad (View Comment):

    RightAngles (View Comment):

    When I said on this site some months ago that we’re seeing an attempted coup d’etat, a moderator redacted me for conspiracy theory.

    Strange, because we know from e-mails people were working together against Trump.

    A coup d’etat is an illegal or unconstitutional seizure of power.  People working together to use the constitutionally-defined process for removing a President from office does not qualify.  One needs to prove that the people involved knowingly co-ordinated illegal means to do so.

    • #52
  23. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Gary McVey (View Comment):
    Most Americans are less prone to conspiracy theories than people who grew up in countries where the fix is always in.

    When Malaysia Flight 370 went down without a trace, our daughter’s Irish friend made what I thought was a crack about the U.S. knowing where everything was. Mrs R later pointed out to me that he wasn’t joking. He was serious. He genuinely thought the CIA et al kept track of everything. It was a revelation to him to learn that the U.S. security agencies didn’t know.  

    • #53
  24. Misthiocracy grudgingly Member
    Misthiocracy grudgingly
    @Misthiocracy

    Judge Mental (View Comment):

    Misthiocracy grudgingly (View Comment):

    A “conspiracy” is two or more people working in concert to do something illegal.

    That’s the definition of a criminal conspiracy. Planning a surprise birthday party is a conspiracy.

    Going by that definition, then accusing folk of conspiracy is no big deal.

    • #54
  25. Columbo Inactive
    Columbo
    @Columbo

    • #55
  26. Columbo Inactive
    Columbo
    @Columbo

    Misthiocracy grudgingly (View Comment):

    Stad (View Comment):

    RightAngles (View Comment):

    When I said on this site some months ago that we’re seeing an attempted coup d’etat, a moderator redacted me for conspiracy theory.

    Strange, because we know from e-mails people were working together against Trump.

    A coup d’etat is an illegal or unconstitutional seizure of power. People working together to use the constitutionally-defined process for removing a President from office does not qualify. One needs to prove that the people involved knowingly co-ordinated illegal means to do so.

    • #56
  27. BastiatJunior Member
    BastiatJunior
    @BastiatJunior

    Gary McVey (View Comment):

    When I have to evaluate one, here are some of the questions I have: 

    Is this source credible? Do we even know who the source is?

    Is it even physically possible?

    Is it suspiciously convenient, tying something we hate into someone we hate? That doesn’t automatically make it wrong, but it should give some pause before automatically assuming it’s right. 

    None of those guideline eliminate you being the one who shot JFK.

    • #57
  28. Bishop Wash Member
    Bishop Wash
    @BishopWash

    The Reticulator (View Comment):

    Gary McVey (View Comment):
    Most Americans are less prone to conspiracy theories than people who grew up in countries where the fix is always in.

    When Malaysia Flight 370 went down without a trace, our daughter’s Irish friend made what I thought was a crack about the U.S. knowing where everything was. Mrs R later pointed out to me that he wasn’t joking. He was serious. He genuinely thought the CIA et al kept track of everything. It was a revelation to him to learn that the U.S. security agencies didn’t know.

    My favorite nut during that incident was the guy who kept saying that the NGIA (National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency) had pictures of the plane and wasn’t releasing them. See that hyphen in there? NGA did that so they could be like everyone else in the beltway and have a three letter abbreviation. At least that’s the scuttlebutt/joke in the intelligence community. Said nut didn’t know enough about his subject to use the correct abbreviation.

    • #58
  29. RightAngles Member
    RightAngles
    @RightAngles

    Misthiocracy grudgingly (View Comment):

    Stad (View Comment):

    RightAngles (View Comment):

    When I said on this site some months ago that we’re seeing an attempted coup d’etat, a moderator redacted me for conspiracy theory.

    Strange, because we know from e-mails people were working together against Trump.

    A coup d’etat is an illegal or unconstitutional seizure of power. People working together to use the constitutionally-defined process for removing a President from office does not qualify. One needs to prove that the people involved knowingly co-ordinated illegal means to do so.

    They did plenty of illegal things, starting with the fake Steele Dossier and changing the wording of a FISA warrant.

    • #59
  30. Randy Webster Inactive
    Randy Webster
    @RandyWebster

    Misthiocracy grudgingly (View Comment):
    A “conspiracy” is two or more people working in concert to do something illegal.

    IIRC from my law school days there can be an illegal conspiracy to do a legal act.

    • #60
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