Post of the Week Created with Sketch. We keep losing with Trump

 

Yesterday, we lost a governor’s race in Kentucky, and both houses the Virginia legislature. For the first time since 1993, the Democrats control the Virginia Governorship and both houses of their legislature. In both races, we were slaughtered in the suburbs. One commentator has written, for the GOP, the suburbs are the new Florida. https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/06/opinions/kentucky-virginia-trump-stewart/index.html

George Will has written that the only way to teach a donkey something is with a two by four over the head. We got our first smack in November, 2017, when we went from a 2/3 margin in the Virginia House of Delegates to only a bare one vote margin. We got our second smack when a Democrat won a Senate Seat in Alabama in December 2017. We got our third smack in 2018 when Connor Lamb won in Pennsylvania. We got our fourth smack in November 2018 when the Democrats won back the House with 40 flips. (Virginia used to be 7-4 GOP in the House; it now is 7-4 Dem.) We have now gotten our fifth smack on the head with losing in Kentucky and Virginia. [Edit.: We also lost a bunch of local elections in Pennsylvania’s collar counties.)

Nathan Gonzales of Roll Call says that the most likely scenarios in order are:

  1. Eviction at 1600, with Trump losing, but us holding the Senate, and the Dems holding the House.
  2. Blue Washington, with Dems taking the Presidency, Senate and House.
  3. Status Quo, with Trump winning, and us holding the Senate and the Dems holding the House.
  4. Red Revival, with us taking the Presidency, Senate and House.

https://www.rollcall.com/news/a-year-out-heres-four-ways-2020-elections-could-go

But we can stick with Trump. There is a prescient article at The Bulwark, about the feeling when the GOP gets crushed at the polls and talk radio guys tell us to “Hug Trump Harder.” https://thebulwark.com/tfw-republicans-get-crushed-at-the-polls-and-talk-radio-guys-say-hug-trump-tighter/

The Emperor has no clothes. You can keep backing him, but he is a losing bet for the party.

There are 234 comments.

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  1. CarolJoy, Thread Hijacker Coolidge

    Before I would attribute the loss of the state to the Democrats, I really need more actual information.

    Who counts the votes? Is the Secretary of the State of VA a Dem or a Republican?

    I will know a lot more when this question is answered.

    • #1
    • November 6, 2019, at 12:04 PM PST
    • Like
  2. Guruforhire Member

    Posting crank disinformation from known propoganda and disinformation sites has absolutely no known good faith rational basis.

    • #2
    • November 6, 2019, at 12:11 PM PST
    • 15 likes
  3. MWD B612 "Dawg" Member

    Maybe Bevins was a terrible candidate in Kentucky.I think he was down by double-digits a few weeks ago, and closed 5K votes down. It’s worth noting that down-ballot Republicans did very well in KY. For example, the candidate for KY AG won by double-digits.

    As far as VA is concerned, the Commonwealth has been trending purple the last few cycles. Perhaps (probably?) it would have turned regardless of who is President. But I’ll wait for more information before making a judgement.

    • #3
    • November 6, 2019, at 12:23 PM PST
    • 12 likes
  4. jeffversion1.0 Coolidge

    danok1 (View Comment):

    Maybe Bevins was a terrible candidate in Kentucky.I think he was down by double-digits a few weeks ago, and closed 5K votes down. It’s worth noting that down-ballot Republicans did very well in KY. For example, the candidate for KY AG won by double-digits.

    I shouldn’t bother with this, but . . . to reinforce your comment, Bevin wasn’t popular. He’s routinely mentioned as being among least popular governors in the US. There was a huge dust-up with teacher pensions a couple years ago that he really got slammed for, and things haven’t gotten any better for him since then. 

    There were 6 statewide elections, Republicans won 5 of them and came within .4% in the governor’s race. They may or may not recount–I don’t expect it to change anything. Still, .4% seems to me to be surprisingly close considering where Bevin has been in terms of job approval.

    I’d rather have an R as governor, I’m not really losing any sleep over this.

    • #4
    • November 6, 2019, at 12:26 PM PST
    • 14 likes
  5. Gary Robbins Reagan
    Gary Robbins

    Guruforhire (View Comment):

    Posting crank disinformation from known propoganda and disinformation sites has absolutely no known good faith rational basis.

    So are CNN, The Bulwark and Roll Call all known propaganda and disinformation sites?

    Are you arguing against the five smacks to the head?

    • #5
    • November 6, 2019, at 12:29 PM PST
    • Like
  6. John Park Member

    Virginia is not a good argument. Northern Virginia is way overpopulated by federal employees and government hangers-on, and it has a disproportionate effect statewide. Even legislatively, given one-person one-vote districting.

    • #6
    • November 6, 2019, at 12:30 PM PST
    • 16 likes
  7. Gary Robbins Reagan
    Gary Robbins

    danok1 (View Comment):

    Maybe Bevins was a terrible candidate in Kentucky.I think he was down by double-digits a few weeks ago, and closed 5K votes down. It’s worth noting that down-ballot Republicans did very well in KY. For example, the candidate for KY AG won by double-digits.

    As far as VA is concerned, the Commonwealth has been trending purple the last few cycles. Perhaps (probably?) it would have turned regardless of who is President. But I’ll wait for more information before making a judgement.

    I am thrilled to have a black Republican KY AG.

    • #7
    • November 6, 2019, at 12:31 PM PST
    • Like
  8. Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… Thatcher

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    danok1 (View Comment):

    Maybe Bevins was a terrible candidate in Kentucky.I think he was down by double-digits a few weeks ago, and closed 5K votes down. It’s worth noting that down-ballot Republicans did very well in KY. For example, the candidate for KY AG won by double-digits.

    As far as VA is concerned, the Commonwealth has been trending purple the last few cycles. Perhaps (probably?) it would have turned regardless of who is President. But I’ll wait for more information before making a judgement.

    I am thrilled to have a black Republican KY AG.

    Who closely embraced Trump in his campaign and was elected by a huge margin, undermining your thesis.

    • #8
    • November 6, 2019, at 12:35 PM PST
    • 26 likes
  9. MWD B612 "Dawg" Member

    danok1 (View Comment):

    Maybe Bevins was a terrible candidate in Kentucky.I think he was down by double-digits a few weeks ago, and closed 5K votes down. It’s worth noting that down-ballot Republicans did very well in KY. For example, the candidate for KY AG won by double-digits.

    As far as VA is concerned, the Commonwealth has been trending purple the last few cycles. Perhaps (probably?) it would have turned regardless of who is President. But I’ll wait for more information before making a judgement.

    I forgot to note that in VA, House of Delegates districts were judicially redrawn last year in a way that favored Democrats.

    Maybe it’s not all Trump.

    • #9
    • November 6, 2019, at 12:35 PM PST
    • 6 likes
  10. Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… Thatcher

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Guruforhire (View Comment):

    Posting crank disinformation from known propoganda and disinformation sites has absolutely no known good faith rational basis.

    So are CNN, The Bulwark and Roll Call all known propaganda and disinformation sites?

     

    Don’t know Roll Call but it is incredibly self-evident that CNN and The Bulwark are. 

    • #10
    • November 6, 2019, at 12:37 PM PST
    • 16 likes
  11. Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… Thatcher

    Along with sweeping all state wide offices other than governor, the new attorney general in Kentucky is also the first Republican elected to that office in more than 70 years. The new GOP AG in Mississippi is the first Republican AG since Reconstruction!

    • #11
    • November 6, 2019, at 12:41 PM PST
    • 12 likes
  12. Blondie Thatcher

    danok1 (View Comment):

    As far as VA is concerned, the Commonwealth has been trending purple the last few cycles. Perhaps (probably?) it would have turned regardless of who is President. But I’ll wait for more information before making a judgement.

    This is correct. My family lives in southside and southwestern Va. The population centers are the Northern Virginia to Richmond corridor (which consists of government workers), Virginia Beach/Newport News (which has always been Democrat) and Charlottesville (which contains the Virginia equivalent of UNC). As long as government grows and remains in DC, you can write off the northern half of Virginia. And, unfortunately for my folks that live in the Kerr/Lake Gaston areas, when these idiots retire to that area they bring their crap to those places. 

    • #12
    • November 6, 2019, at 12:48 PM PST
    • 11 likes
  13. Viator Inactive
    ViatorJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    I haven’t logged on to Ricochet in months and what is the third article I run across? A Never Trump screed. So I am reminded why I bailed out of Ricochet. I returned to Ricochet to find tired lamestream talking points discussed earnestly.

    • #13
    • November 6, 2019, at 12:51 PM PST
    • 11 likes
  14. CJ Inactive

    I wonder if any NTers donated cash money to any of the Republicans’ Democrat opponents. That would be a gross violation of Reagan’s 11th commandment, don’t you think?

    • #14
    • November 6, 2019, at 12:51 PM PST
    • 4 likes
  15. Profile Photo Member

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Guruforhire (View Comment):

    Posting crank disinformation from known propoganda and disinformation sites has absolutely no known good faith rational basis.

    So are CNN, The Bulwark and Roll Call all known propaganda and disinformation sites?

    Yes

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f70Z3cvrQd0

    • #15
    • November 6, 2019, at 12:53 PM PST
    • 4 likes
  16. PHenry Member

    When Republicans lose, it is a clear referendum on Trump.

    When Democrats lose, it is reading far too much in to it to suggest a referendum . 

     I see how that works.

    Gary, do you really believe that if we had just let the Democrats oust Trump we would have won majorities in VA and KY? If not, then what are you suggesting? Maybe if Hillary had won we would have taken VA and KY?

     

    1. Oust Trump
    2. ????
    3. Republican domination! 
    • #16
    • November 6, 2019, at 12:58 PM PST
    • 24 likes
  17. Petty Boozswha Inactive

    Bevin had battled back to a 5 point lead in the polls 52/47 on the day of Trump’s rally when the stable genius with unmatched wisdom demanded that you can’t let them do this to me!!!! Bevin got 200,000 more votes than he did in his first election, but somebody somewhere motivated the Dems even more.

    Yesterday we had a post that likened Trump to Roy Hobbs, I think he’s looking more like Bill Buckner every day.

    • #17
    • November 6, 2019, at 1:27 PM PST
    • 4 likes
  18. Gary Robbins Reagan
    Gary Robbins

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    danok1 (View Comment):

    Maybe Bevins was a terrible candidate in Kentucky.I think he was down by double-digits a few weeks ago, and closed 5K votes down. It’s worth noting that down-ballot Republicans did very well in KY. For example, the candidate for KY AG won by double-digits.

    As far as VA is concerned, the Commonwealth has been trending purple the last few cycles. Perhaps (probably?) it would have turned regardless of who is President. But I’ll wait for more information before making a judgement.

    I am thrilled to have a black Republican KY AG.

    Who closely embraced Trump in his campaign and was elected by a huge margin, undermining your thesis.

    Most Republicans have embraced Trump. I can’t hold that against them.

    • #18
    • November 6, 2019, at 1:34 PM PST
    • Like
  19. Gary Robbins Reagan
    Gary Robbins

    danok1 (View Comment):

    danok1 (View Comment):

    Maybe Bevins was a terrible candidate in Kentucky.I think he was down by double-digits a few weeks ago, and closed 5K votes down. It’s worth noting that down-ballot Republicans did very well in KY. For example, the candidate for KY AG won by double-digits.

    As far as VA is concerned, the Commonwealth has been trending purple the last few cycles. Perhaps (probably?) it would have turned regardless of who is President. But I’ll wait for more information before making a judgement.

    I forgot to note that in VA, House of Delegates districts were judicially redrawn last year in a way that favored Democrats.

    Maybe it’s not all Trump.

    No, no, no! Everything is all about Trump!

    • #19
    • November 6, 2019, at 1:35 PM PST
    • 2 likes
  20. Gary Robbins Reagan
    Gary Robbins

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    Along with sweeping all state wide offices other than governor, the new attorney general in Kentucky is also the first Republican elected to that office in more than 70 years. The new GOP AG in Mississippi is the first Republican AG since Reconstruction!

    This is good news.

    • #20
    • November 6, 2019, at 1:36 PM PST
    • Like
  21. DonG (Biden is compromised) Coolidge

    jeffversion1.0 (View Comment):

    danok1 (View Comment):

    Maybe Bevins was a terrible candidate in Kentucky.I think he was down by double-digits a few weeks ago, and closed 5K votes down. It’s worth noting that down-ballot Republicans did very well in KY. For example, the candidate for KY AG won by double-digits.

    I shouldn’t bother with this, but . . . to reinforce your comment, Bevin wasn’t popular. He’s routinely mentioned as being among least popular governors in the US. There was a huge dust-up with teacher pensions a couple years ago that he really got slammed for, and things haven’t gotten any better for him since then.

    There were 6 statewide elections, Republicans won 5 of them and came within .4% in the governor’s race. They may or may not recount–I don’t expect it to change anything. Still, .4% seems to me to be surprisingly close considering where Bevin has been in terms of job approval.

    I’d rather have an R as governor, I’m not really losing any sleep over this.

    Bevins ranked 50th in Governor approval ratings. That is dead last. 

    Trump should make him the new Sec. of Education ;)

    • #21
    • November 6, 2019, at 1:44 PM PST
    • 2 likes
  22. Gary Robbins Reagan
    Gary Robbins

    DonG (View Comment):

    jeffversion1.0 (View Comment):

    danok1 (View Comment):

    Maybe Bevins was a terrible candidate in Kentucky.I think he was down by double-digits a few weeks ago, and closed 5K votes down. It’s worth noting that down-ballot Republicans did very well in KY. For example, the candidate for KY AG won by double-digits.

    I shouldn’t bother with this, but . . . to reinforce your comment, Bevin wasn’t popular. He’s routinely mentioned as being among least popular governors in the US. There was a huge dust-up with teacher pensions a couple years ago that he really got slammed for, and things haven’t gotten any better for him since then.

    There were 6 statewide elections, Republicans won 5 of them and came within .4% in the governor’s race. They may or may not recount–I don’t expect it to change anything. Still, .4% seems to me to be surprisingly close considering where Bevin has been in terms of job approval.

    I’d rather have an R as governor, I’m not really losing any sleep over this.

    Bevins ranked 50th in Governor approval ratings. That is dead last.

    Trump should make him the new Sec. of Education ;)

    The top two Governors are Massachusetts Republican Charlie Baker and Maryland’s Larry Hogan. They are both two term governors. They also did not vote for Trump in 2016.

    • #22
    • November 6, 2019, at 1:48 PM PST
    • Like
  23. Franco Member
    FrancoJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Who is we? It’s in your title.

    Serious question.

    Another question for the Never Trumpies: I guess we’d …be winning with Hillary?

    Who is we?

     

     

    • #23
    • November 6, 2019, at 2:15 PM PST
    • 4 likes
  24. Rodin Member

    I think the Virginia loss was due to larger trends that implicate GOPe more than Trump. Trump, at least, is a fighter. If the NeverTrumpers would line up to fight with, rather than against, him then maybe you would see a resurgence in areas where GOP is losing ground. I think NeverTrumpers are too busy worrying about Trump to develop a strategy to confront the Soros funded campaigns.

    • #24
    • November 6, 2019, at 2:15 PM PST
    • 5 likes
  25. MWD B612 "Dawg" Member

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    DonG (View Comment):

    jeffversion1.0 (View Comment):

    danok1 (View Comment):

    Maybe Bevins was a terrible candidate in Kentucky.I think he was down by double-digits a few weeks ago, and closed 5K votes down. It’s worth noting that down-ballot Republicans did very well in KY. For example, the candidate for KY AG won by double-digits.

    I shouldn’t bother with this, but . . . to reinforce your comment, Bevin wasn’t popular. He’s routinely mentioned as being among least popular governors in the US. There was a huge dust-up with teacher pensions a couple years ago that he really got slammed for, and things haven’t gotten any better for him since then.

    There were 6 statewide elections, Republicans won 5 of them and came within .4% in the governor’s race. They may or may not recount–I don’t expect it to change anything. Still, .4% seems to me to be surprisingly close considering where Bevin has been in terms of job approval.

    I’d rather have an R as governor, I’m not really losing any sleep over this.

    Bevins ranked 50th in Governor approval ratings. That is dead last.

    Trump should make him the new Sec. of Education ;)

    The top two Governors are Massachusetts Republican Charlie Baker and Maryland’s Larry Hogan. They are both two term governors. They also did not vote for Trump in 2016.

    What specifically “Republican” policies have they put in place in those two states, as opposed to toning down Democrat policis? I’m genuinely curious, as those might be policies that can be used to attract independents.

    Probably a topic for a new post, if you want to do it.

    • #25
    • November 6, 2019, at 2:22 PM PST
    • 1 like
  26. Gary Robbins Reagan
    Gary Robbins

    Franco (View Comment):

    Who is we? It’s in your title.

    Republicans and Conservatives.

    Serious question.

    Another question for the Never Trumpies: I guess we’d …be winning with Hillary?

    Who is we?

    Republicans and Conservatives.

    Back in 2016 I wrote: “Conservatism survives and thrives if it spends 4 years in opposition to Hillary Clinton; conservatism dies if it spends 4 years in compliance with Donald Trump.”

    Conservatism in dying in compliance with Donald Trump who brooks no dissent.

     

    • #26
    • November 6, 2019, at 2:31 PM PST
    • Like
  27. Gary Robbins Reagan
    Gary Robbins

    The suburban slaughter continues. From the AP, concerning two of Philadelphia’s four “collar” counties:

    “Just outside Philadelphia, Democrats said they took control of the Delaware County’s five-member council for the first time since the Civil War. In nearby Chester County, Democrats beat two Republican incumbents on the board of commissioners to seize the majority for the first time ever.”

    https://apnews.com/03e78ab61fd94074b49bcfbf73ba4f84

     

    • #27
    • November 6, 2019, at 2:34 PM PST
    • Like
  28. Hoyacon Member

    How wonderful to take a “let’s-get-politics-out-of-my-life-for-a-few-months” hiatus from Ricochet and return to find the first post before me yet another regurgitation of a recurring theme. Deja vu all over again.

    Anyone who thinks the blueing of Virginia is a Trump-driven phenomenon is waaaay off base. But then, I’m not a pundit and have only lived in the state for 25 years.

    • #28
    • November 6, 2019, at 2:39 PM PST
    • 18 likes
  29. Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… Thatcher

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    The suburban slaughter continues. From the AP, concerning two of Philadelphia’s four “collar” counties:

    “Just outside Philadelphia, Democrats said they took control of the Delaware County’s five-member council for the first time since the Civil War. In nearby Chester County, Democrats beat two Republican incumbents on the board of commissioners to seize the majority for the first time ever.”

    https://apnews.com/03e78ab61fd94074b49bcfbf73ba4f84

     

    And in New Jersey, Republicans picked up seats in the House and Senate for the first time in years; specifically in districts carried by Trump in 2016.

    We can do this all day, but what is the point?

    A dispassionate analysis would acknowledge that Trump brings both upside and downsides. How those will balance out in 2020, who knows? But one thing is certain – the static analysis you and The Bulwark crowd bring to this is useless. It’s like Elizabeth Warren’s Medicare for All plan – you continually assume that if Trump is taken out of the equation only good things happen, rather than a mixture of consequences leading to a very uncertain outcome. Moreover, you need to replace Trump with someone and who that someone would be will surely have some impact on those consequences.

     

    • #29
    • November 6, 2019, at 2:42 PM PST
    • 15 likes
  30. Full Size Tabby Member

     

    PHenry (View Comment):

    When Republicans lose, it is a clear referendum on Trump.

    When Democrats lose, it is reading far too much in to it to suggest a referendum .

    I see how that works.

    Gary, do you really believe that if we had just let the Democrats oust Trump we would have won majorities in VA and KY? If not, then what are you suggesting? Maybe if Hillary had won we would have taken VA and KY?

     

    1. Oust Trump
    2. ????
    3. Republican domination!

    That is what I am trying to understand. Does anyone have a plausible theory that if the Republican party nominated at this point in time a candidate other than Donald Trump for U.S. President we would end up with both a Republican President and more Republicans in office in 2021 than we are likely to have with Donald Trump as Presidential candidate? 

    • #30
    • November 6, 2019, at 2:45 PM PST
    • 7 likes

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