Flipping Congressional Districts, Parts 5 and 6

I’ve been doing some research into finding the most efficient way to flip the House, and presenting my findings here. (Unexpected good news at the end.)

In Part 0, I found a good source of data for the results of the 2018 elections.

In Part 1, I listed the districts that won unopposed, and discovered that there were 10 times as many Dems running unopposed as Republicans.

In Part 2, I showed that there is a wide range of voter participation among the congressional districts. 4.4 to 1. And that the 29 districts with the lowest voter participation are all Dems, suggesting an opportunity.

In Part 3, I created a metric for the cost to flip a district, and discovered that the costs cover a range of 600 to 1. (!!!) Then I took the 235 Dem districts and sorted them by the cost, so the congressional districts at the top of the list are easiest to flip.

In Part 4, I asked if anybody has any contacts inside the GOP that might be interested. No progress here yet.

So here in Part 5, I’d like to present what happens when we combine the table from Part 3 with the unopposed districts in Part 1. I found it to be very interesting.

So, this is a table of the 235 congressional districts currently held by Democrats. They are presented in order of the cost to flip the district to Republican. That cost is computed based on a hypothetical strategy of getting the necessary votes from people who didn’t vote in 2018. So the cost is computed by the number of votes necessary divided by the number of nonvoters.

For this version, I’ve noted the districts where the Democrat candidate had no competition in 2018. “Unopposed” indicates there was no Republican candidate running. “<20%” indicates that the Republican candidate did so badly, receiving less than 20% of the vote, that the election was effectively unopposed.

INDEX DISTRICT COST VOTES NEEDED NONVOTERS CONGRESSMAN
1 CA-21 \$0.14 862 597,151 TJ Cox
2 UT-4 \$0.16 694 441,496 Ben McAdams
3 OK-5 \$0.71 3,338 471,807 Kendra Horn
4 NM-2 \$0.73 3,722 511,511 Xochitl Torres Small
5 ME-2 \$0.82 3,509 429,396 Jared F. Golden
6 GA-6 \$0.83 3,264 393,753 Lucy McBath
7 FL-26 \$0.87 4,119 475,292 Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
8 SC-1 \$0.94 3,982 423,334 Joe Cunningham
9 NY-22 \$0.97 4,473 459,555 Anthony J. Brindisi
10 NJ-3 \$0.98 3,973 403,892 Andy Kim
11 VA-2 \$1.40 6,113 437,367 Elaine G. Luria
12 CA-39 \$1.63 7,611 466,374 Gil Cisneros
13 VA-7 \$1.88 6,784 360,964 Abigail A. Spanberger
14 CA-10 \$2.04 9,990 488,867 Josh Harder
15 IA-3 \$2.17 7,709 354,526 Cindy Axne
16 NY-11 \$2.39 12,382 518,594 Max N. Rose
17 TX-7 \$2.64 12,317 467,166 Lizzie Pannill Fletcher
18 MN-7 \$2.80 12,004 429,258 Collin C. Peterson
19 CA-45 \$3.09 12,523 405,478 Katie Porter
20 FL-27 \$3.31 15,155 458,181 Donna Shalala
21 MI-8 \$3.55 13,098 369,174 Elissa Slotkin
22 NY-19 \$3.55 15,000 422,781 Antonio Delgado
23 IL-14 \$3.60 14,871 413,568 Lauren Underwood
24 CA-16 \$3.80 21,573 567,808 Jim Costa
25 WA-8 \$3.80 15,121 397,710 Kim Schrier
26 NV-4 \$4.04 19,214 475,899 Steven A. Horsford
27 TX-32 \$4.13 17,966 435,147 Colin Allred
28 NJ-7 \$4.17 16,200 388,025 Tom Malinowski
29 NJ-2 \$4.38 19,819 452,404 Jeff Van Drew
30 MD-6 \$4.45 23,256 522,621 David Trone
31 IA-1 \$4.49 16,900 376,524 Abby Finkenauer
32 CA-25 \$4.59 21,396 465,745 Katie Hill
33 AZ-1 \$4.60 20,456 444,678 Tom O’Halleran
34 PA-8 \$4.98 23,040 462,601 Matthew Alton Cartwright
35 MN-2 \$4.99 18,614 372,799 Angie Craig
36 CA-48 \$5.03 20,938 416,031 Harley Rouda
37 TX-34 \$5.03 28,582 567,699 Filemon B. Vela
38 CA-9 \$5.11 26,065 510,004 Jerry McNerney
39 IL-6 \$5.71 22,556 395,321 Sean Casten
40 PA-7 \$5.89 26,376 447,506 Susan Ellis Wild
41 NH-1 \$5.93 24,888 419,728 Chris Pappas
42 NY-18 \$6.00 27,529 459,077 Sean Patrick Maloney
43 NV-3 \$6.11 25,935 424,599 Susie Lee
44 CA-31 \$6.27 32,791 523,272 Pete Aguilar
45 TX-15 \$6.31 34,471 545,965 Vicente Gonzalez
46 MI-11 \$6.52 23,449 359,866 Haley Stevens
47 CA-7 \$6.62 28,415 429,150 Ami Bera
48 AZ-2 \$6.70 27,917 416,615 Ann Kirkpatrick
49 CT-5 \$7.23 31,799 440,103 Jahana Hayes
50 CA-36 \$7.41 37,330 503,759 Raul Ruiz
51 CA-3 \$7.84 37,499 478,516 John Garamendi
52 KS-3 \$7.84 30,756 392,466 Sharice Davids
53 NH-2 \$8.67 37,368 431,062 Anne McLane Kuster
54 MD-2 \$8.93 48,859 547,265 C.A. Dutch Ruppersberger
55 CA-49 \$9.11 37,876 415,737 Mike Levin
56 GA-2 \$9.18 44,227 481,596 Sanford Bishop
57 CA-41 \$9.22 50,206 544,519 Mark Takano
58 AZ-3 \$9.37 49,782 531,249 Raul Grijalva
59 IA-2 \$9.59 38,159 397,854 Dave Loebsack
60 NV-1 \$9.62 53,729 558,566 Dina Titus
61 CA-46 \$10.06 56,640 562,851 Lou Correa
62 NJ-5 \$10.10 41,291 408,944 Josh Gottheimer
63 TX-29 \$10.13 60,090 593,273 Sylvia R. Garcia
64 CA-35 \$10.29 57,816 561,743 Norma J. Torres
65 PA-17 \$10.58 40,745 385,188 Conor James Lamb
66 CO-6 \$10.70 38,954 363,950 Jason Crow
67 NY-3 \$10.80 47,942 443,705 Thomas R. Suozzi
68 TX-33 \$10.93 64,685 591,543 Marc Veasey
69 NY-25 \$11.01 48,508 440,647 Joseph D. Morelle
70 MD-8 \$11.40 57,583 505,232 Jamie Raskin
71 CA-24 \$11.42 48,669 426,336 Salud Carbajal
72 FL-9 \$11.50 47,607 414,030 Darren Soto
73 IL-17 \$11.55 55,569 481,018 Cheri Bustos
74 CA-51 \$11.71 65,226 556,939 Juan Vargas
75 MN-3 \$11.98 41,565 346,818 Dean Phillips
76 OH-13 \$12.03 55,276 459,397 Tim Ryan
77 NJ-11 \$12.23 47,362 387,193 Mikie Sherrill
78 IL-8 \$12.26 62,981 513,640 Raja Krishnamoorthi
79 FL-13 \$12.31 48,463 393,796 Charlie Crist
80 NM-1 \$12.31 56,829 461,605 Debra A Haaland
81 NJ-6 \$12.32 60,309 489,572 Frank Pallone Jr.
82 FL-7 \$12.41 48,828 393,369 Stephanie Murphy
83 CA-32 \$12.46 66,487 533,736 Grace Flores Napolitano
84 MD-3 \$12.80 66,588 520,239 John Sarbanes
85 AZ-9 \$12.89 57,921 449,522 Greg Stanton
86 IL-11 \$13.05 63,049 483,002 Bill Foster
87 NY-4 \$13.09 58,964 450,561 Kathleen M. Rice
88 PA-6 \$13.10 53,580 408,939 Christina Jampoler Houlahan
89 IN-7 \$13.12 64,682 493,171 Andre D. Carson
90 VA-10 \$13.27 45,515 342,972 Jennifer T. Wexton
91 CA-26 \$13.40 61,006 455,341 Julia Brownley
92 CA-47 \$13.41 65,672 489,731 Alan Lowenthal
93 OR-5 \$13.43 47,300 352,298 Kurt Schrader
94 WA-10 \$14.15 62,355 440,692 Denny Heck
95 CT-4 \$14.20 61,805 435,116 Jim Himes
96 TX-16 \$14.24 75,310 529,013 Veronica Escobar
97 MD-5 \$14.26 73,344 514,284 Steny H. Hoyer
98 FL-23 \$14.31 62,165 434,401 Debbie Wasserman Schultz
99 CA-38 \$14.99 76,220 508,611 Linda T. Sanchez
100 MI-5 \$15.02 65,237 434,354 Daniel T. Kildee
101 MD-7 \$15.09 83,017 550,069 Elijah Cummings
102 WI-3 \$15.39 60,908 395,778 Ron Kind
103 MA-9 \$15.74 60,884 386,839 Bill Keating
104 IL-10 \$15.76 74,416 472,103 Brad Schneider
105 IN-1 \$15.90 74,017 465,558 Peter J. Visclosky
106 CA-40 \$15.94 93,938 589,318 Lucille Roybal-Allard Unopposed
107 NY-14 \$16.00 91,116 569,563 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez <20%
108 NJ-9 \$16.26 82,978 510,351 Bill Pascrell Jr.
109 WA-1 \$16.32 61,675 378,024 Suzan DelBene
110 NJ-8 \$16.36 91,156 557,312 Albio Sires <20%
111 RI-2 \$16.39 54,205 330,803 James R. Langevin
112 RI-1 \$16.45 58,532 355,917 David N. Cicilline
113 KY-3 \$16.45 71,072 432,047 John A. Yarmuth
114 OR-4 \$16.66 56,296 337,874 Peter DeFazio
115 MD-4 \$16.87 91,666 543,405 Anthony G. Brown
116 NM-3 \$16.91 78,774 465,874 Ben R Lujan
117 TX-35 \$16.98 87,725 516,700 Lloyd Doggett
118 CA-29 \$17.03 94,702 556,075 Tony Cardenas <20%
119 MI-9 \$17.14 69,611 406,204 Andy Levin
120 SC-6 \$17.15 86,483 504,334 James E Jim Clyburn
121 OH-9 \$17.24 82,549 478,830 Marcy Kaptur
122 CA-44 \$17.26 97,944 567,445 Nanette Diaz Barragan Unopposed
123 MO-5 \$17.32 73,950 426,982 Emanuel Cleaver, II
124 FL-22 \$17.33 71,585 413,084 Ted Deutch
125 HI-1 \$17.50 92,152 526,556 Ed Case
126 CT-3 \$17.91 78,905 440,528 Rosa L DeLauro
127 CT-1 \$18.11 79,063 436,627 John B Larson
128 CT-2 \$18.32 77,248 421,653 Joe Courtney
129 NJ-1 \$18.33 82,011 447,349 Donald W. Norcross
130 MA-3 \$18.48 79,730 431,440 Lori Loureiro Trahan
131 NY-6 \$19.01 111,646 587,346 Grace Meng Unopposed
132 TX-18 \$19.06 100,336 526,435 Sheila Jackson Lee
133 VA-4 \$19.45 79,936 410,913 A. Donald McEachin
134 AZ-7 \$19.53 113,044 578,716 Ruben Gallego Unopposed
135 CA-34 \$19.72 110,195 558,861 Jimmy Gomez Unopposed
136 NY-20 \$19.73 87,753 444,753 Paul D. Tonko
137 CA-52 \$19.76 81,977 414,760 Scott Peters
138 NY-15 \$20.53 119,264 581,016 Jose E. Serrano <20%
139 TX-28 \$20.56 117,494 571,541 Henry Cuellar Unopposed
140 NJ-12 \$20.57 94,293 458,392 Bonnie Watson Coleman
141 FL-5 \$20.60 90,728 440,441 Al Lawson
142 TN-9 \$20.83 110,238 529,291 Steve Cohen <20%
143 TN-5 \$20.87 93,606 448,519 Jim Cooper
144 CA-43 \$21.08 108,492 514,715 Maxine Waters
145 HI-2 \$21.15 108,421 512,646 Tulsi Gabbard
146 CA-19 \$21.34 104,673 490,448 Zoe Lofgren
147 CA-17 \$21.43 107,048 499,605 Ro Khanna
148 IL-3 \$21.58 105,168 487,433 Daniel William Lipinski
149 FL-24 \$22.21 129,192 581,575 Frederica Wilson Unopposed
150 IL-4 \$22.33 121,601 544,578 Jesus “Chuy” Garcia <20%
151 NY-26 \$22.43 107,678 480,104 Brian Higgins
152 CO-7 \$22.68 84,526 372,761 Ed Perlmutter
153 PA-5 \$22.80 92,564 406,053 Mary Gay Scanlon
154 MA-2 \$23.00 97,941 425,874 James P. McGovern
155 PA-2 \$23.04 117,218 508,785 Brendan F Boyle
156 WA-6 \$23.15 89,732 387,681 Derek Kilmer
157 CA-53 \$23.20 102,540 441,973 Susan A. Davis
158 PA-4 \$23.84 90,057 377,776 Madeleine Dean Cunnane
159 CA-15 \$24.00 112,049 466,838 Eric Swalwell
160 ME-1 \$24.41 90,007 368,714 Chellie Pingree
161 TX-9 \$24.43 136,256 557,766 Al Green Unopposed
162 NC-1 \$24.71 108,239 438,092 G. K. Butterfield
163 OH-3 \$25.11 116,535 464,090 Joyce Beatty
164 TX-20 \$25.80 139,038 538,804 Joaquin Castro Unopposed
165 NY-7 \$26.50 146,687 553,465 Nydia M. Velazquez Unopposed
166 NY-10 \$27.11 135,476 499,809 Jerrold L. Nadler <20%
167 CA-30 \$27.16 122,153 449,774 Brad Sherman
168 MI-12 \$27.75 115,473 416,139 Debbie Dingell
169 DE \$28.48 101,969 358,030 Lisa Blunt Rochester
170 NY-5 \$29.22 160,500 549,296 Gregory W. Meeks Unopposed
171 NC-12 \$29.84 128,810 431,629 Alma Adams
172 MA-6 \$29.96 112,905 376,792 Seth W. Moulton
173 NJ-10 \$30.37 155,062 510,608 Donald M. Payne Jr. <20%
174 CA-11 \$30.58 133,057 435,086 Mark DeSaulnier
175 IL-1 \$30.60 138,600 452,882 Bobby L. Rush <20%
176 IL-2 \$30.73 146,117 475,516 Robin Kelly <20%
177 CA-28 \$30.97 142,390 459,833 Adam B. Schiff
178 MN-4 \$31.17 119,118 382,153 Betty McCollum
179 CA-33 \$31.50 125,322 397,907 Ted W. Lieu
180 CA-27 \$31.59 160,504 508,131 Judy Chu Unopposed
181 TX-30 \$31.61 166,784 527,593 Eddie Bernice Johnson Unopposed
182 NY-9 \$31.65 160,554 507,344 Yvette D. Clarke <20%
183 CA-6 \$31.92 162,411 508,828 Doris Matsui Unopposed
184 MI-13 \$32.14 165,355 514,468 Rashida Tlaib Unopposed
185 IL-9 \$32.44 136,385 420,416 Janice D. Schakowsky
186 MS-2 \$32.47 158,921 489,388 Bennie G. Thompson Unopposed
187 NY-13 \$32.64 169,767 520,079 Adriano Espaillat <20%
188 NY-17 \$32.92 170,168 516,926 Nita M. Lowey Unopposed
189 OR-1 \$33.02 114,752 347,518 Suzanne Bonamici
190 VT \$33.30 117,842 353,848 Peter Welch
191 WI-4 \$33.68 147,396 437,680 Gwen S. Moore
192 VA-11 \$33.83 136,168 402,517 Gerald Edward Connolly
193 IL-5 \$34.49 148,858 431,636 Mike Quigley
194 NY-16 \$34.52 182,044 527,411 Eliot L. Engel Unopposed
195 WA-9 \$34.74 163,345 470,200 Adam Smith Unopposed
196 NY-8 \$34.74 180,376 519,200 Hakeem S. Jeffries Unopposed
197 CA-14 \$35.13 155,945 443,944 Jackie Speier
198 OH-11 \$35.13 161,652 460,107 Marcia L. Fudge <20%
199 AL-7 \$35.47 185,010 521,604 Terri Sewell Unopposed
200 CA-18 \$36.24 148,046 408,529 Anna G. Eshoo
201 GA-13 \$36.71 153,397 417,850 David Scott
202 MI-14 \$37.78 168,435 445,773 Brenda Lawrence <20%
203 CA-20 \$37.87 183,677 485,046 Jimmy Panetta Unopposed
204 FL-14 \$38.02 195,789 514,978 Kathy Castor Unopposed
205 FL-10 \$38.75 198,491 512,276 Val Demings Unopposed
206 CA-37 \$38.94 184,732 474,389 Karen Bass <20%
207 GA-4 \$39.49 166,625 421,958 Henry C “Hank” Johnson Jr
208 MO-1 \$39.85 173,914 436,392 Lacy Clay <20%
209 IL-7 \$39.88 185,249 464,524 Danny K. Davis <20%
210 FL-20 \$39.90 202,659 507,943 Alcee L. Hastings Unopposed
211 LA-2 \$40.06 190,182 474,785 Cedric Richmond Unopposed
212 VA-3 \$40.28 198,615 493,045 Robert C. “Bobby” Scott Unopposed
213 MA-5 \$40.40 161,387 399,443 Katherine M. Clark
214 NY-12 \$40.75 186,984 458,890 Carolyn B. Maloney <20%
215 CO-2 \$40.94 114,707 280,153 Joe Neguse
216 FL-21 \$42.11 210,606 500,161 Lois Frankel Unopposed
217 MA-1 \$42.88 211,790 493,867 Richard E. Neal Unopposed
218 CA-2 \$43.15 170,505 395,110 Jared Huffman
219 VA-8 \$44.10 170,238 386,019 Donald S. Beyer, Jr.
220 MA-7 \$44.16 216,559 490,356 Ayanna S. Pressley Unopposed
221 NC-4 \$44.68 165,015 369,364 David Price
222 CA-5 \$45.77 205,860 449,749 Mike Thompson Unopposed
223 PA-18 \$48.29 231,472 479,295 Michael F Doyle Jr. Unopposed
224 WA-2 \$50.53 210,187 415,934 Rick Larsen Unopposed
225 MN-5 \$52.60 193,263 367,409 Ilhan Omar
226 MA-4 \$53.35 245,289 459,751 Joseph P. Kennedy, III Unopposed
227 CO-1 \$55.03 187,679 341,074 Diana DeGette
228 MA-8 \$57.92 259,159 447,460 Stephen F. Lynch Unopposed
229 CA-12 \$59.31 233,512 393,695 Nancy Pelosi <20%
230 OR-3 \$62.13 202,832 326,441 Earl Blumenauer <20%
231 CA-13 \$62.65 260,580 415,930 Barbara Lee Unopposed
232 GA-5 \$63.26 275,406 435,361 John R. Lewis Unopposed
233 PA-3 \$66.35 267,223 402,770 Dwight Evans <20%
234 WI-2 \$78.56 309,116 393,472 Mark Pocan Unopposed
235 WA-7 \$83.81 264,919 316,086 Pramila Jayapal <20%

Discuss…

Most of the unopposed and effectively unopposed districts are, indeed, pretty much unwinnable. (Whew!) So that’s good in the sense that resources weren’t being wasted.

On the other hand, should one of the Dem candidates find themselves in jail, or otherwise disqualified (“Caught in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy.” – Edwin Edwards) it would be reasonable to have a Republican available to win that election.

What were the lowest cost districts that went unopposed or effectively unopposed? CA-40 was the lowest cost district that was unopposed. And the infamous Alexandria O’Cortez NY-14 was the lowest cost district effectively unopposed.

Question: What is the relationship between unopposed candidates and gerrymandering?

Question: Why are 10 times as many Democrat candidates running unopposed (38) or effectively unopposed (22) as Republican candidates (4 and 2)?

Part 6

I discovered that the National Republican Congressional Committee created and published a list of targeted congressional districts for 2020. (!!!)

You can check it out here: NRCC Announces 55 Offensive Targets for the 2020 Cycle

That’s very interesting. I can’t help but wonder how these targeted districts line up in this table.

Well, let’s find out:

INDEX DISTRICT COST VOTES NEEDED NONVOTERS CONGRESSMAN
1 CA-21 \$0.14 862 597,151 TJ Cox Targeted
2 UT-4 \$0.16 694 441,496 Ben McAdams Targeted
3 OK-5 \$0.71 3,338 471,807 Kendra Horn Targeted
4 NM-2 \$0.73 3,722 511,511 Xochitl Torres Small Targeted
5 ME-2 \$0.82 3,509 429,396 Jared F. Golden Targeted
6 GA-6 \$0.83 3,264 393,753 Lucy McBath Targeted
7 FL-26 \$0.87 4,119 475,292 Debbie Mucarsel-Powell Targeted
8 SC-1 \$0.94 3,982 423,334 Joe Cunningham Targeted
9 NY-22 \$0.97 4,473 459,555 Anthony J. Brindisi Targeted
10 NJ-3 \$0.98 3,973 403,892 Andy Kim Targeted
11 VA-2 \$1.40 6,113 437,367 Elaine G. Luria Targeted
12 CA-39 \$1.63 7,611 466,374 Gil Cisneros Targeted
13 VA-7 \$1.88 6,784 360,964 Abigail A. Spanberger Targeted
14 CA-10 \$2.04 9,990 488,867 Josh Harder Targeted
15 IA-3 \$2.17 7,709 354,526 Cindy Axne Targeted
16 NY-11 \$2.39 12,382 518,594 Max N. Rose Targeted
17 TX-7 \$2.64 12,317 467,166 Lizzie Pannill Fletcher Targeted
18 MN-7 \$2.80 12,004 429,258 Collin C. Peterson Targeted
19 CA-45 \$3.09 12,523 405,478 Katie Porter Targeted
20 FL-27 \$3.31 15,155 458,181 Donna Shalala Targeted
21 MI-8 \$3.55 13,098 369,174 Elissa Slotkin Targeted
22 NY-19 \$3.55 15,000 422,781 Antonio Delgado Targeted
23 IL-14 \$3.60 14,871 413,568 Lauren Underwood Targeted
24 CA-16 \$3.80 21,573 567,808 Jim Costa
25 WA-8 \$3.80 15,121 397,710 Kim Schrier Targeted
26 NV-4 \$4.04 19,214 475,899 Steven A. Horsford Targeted
27 TX-32 \$4.13 17,966 435,147 Colin Allred Targeted
28 NJ-7 \$4.17 16,200 388,025 Tom Malinowski Targeted
29 NJ-2 \$4.38 19,819 452,404 Jeff Van Drew Targeted
30 MD-6 \$4.45 23,256 522,621 David Trone
31 IA-1 \$4.49 16,900 376,524 Abby Finkenauer Targeted
32 CA-25 \$4.59 21,396 465,745 Katie Hill Targeted
33 AZ-1 \$4.60 20,456 444,678 Tom O’Halleran Targeted
34 PA-8 \$4.98 23,040 462,601 Matthew Alton Cartwright Targeted
35 MN-2 \$4.99 18,614 372,799 Angie Craig Targeted
36 CA-48 \$5.03 20,938 416,031 Harley Rouda Targeted
37 TX-34 \$5.03 28,582 567,699 Filemon B. Vela
38 CA-9 \$5.11 26,065 510,004 Jerry McNerney
39 IL-6 \$5.71 22,556 395,321 Sean Casten Targeted
40 PA-7 \$5.89 26,376 447,506 Susan Ellis Wild Targeted
41 NH-1 \$5.93 24,888 419,728 Chris Pappas Targeted
42 NY-18 \$6.00 27,529 459,077 Sean Patrick Maloney Targeted
43 NV-3 \$6.11 25,935 424,599 Susie Lee Targeted
44 CA-31 \$6.27 32,791 523,272 Pete Aguilar
45 TX-15 \$6.31 34,471 545,965 Vicente Gonzalez
46 MI-11 \$6.52 23,449 359,866 Haley Stevens Targeted
47 CA-7 \$6.62 28,415 429,150 Ami Bera
48 AZ-2 \$6.70 27,917 416,615 Ann Kirkpatrick Targeted
49 CT-5 \$7.23 31,799 440,103 Jahana Hayes
50 CA-36 \$7.41 37,330 503,759 Raul Ruiz
51 CA-3 \$7.84 37,499 478,516 John Garamendi
52 KS-3 \$7.84 30,756 392,466 Sharice Davids Targeted
53 NH-2 \$8.67 37,368 431,062 Anne McLane Kuster
54 MD-2 \$8.93 48,859 547,265 C.A. Dutch Ruppersberger
55 CA-49 \$9.11 37,876 415,737 Mike Levin Targeted
56 GA-2 \$9.18 44,227 481,596 Sanford Bishop
57 CA-41 \$9.22 50,206 544,519 Mark Takano
58 AZ-3 \$9.37 49,782 531,249 Raul Grijalva
59 IA-2 \$9.59 38,159 397,854 Dave Loebsack Targeted
60 NV-1 \$9.62 53,729 558,566 Dina Titus
61 CA-46 \$10.06 56,640 562,851 Lou Correa
62 NJ-5 \$10.10 41,291 408,944 Josh Gottheimer Targeted
63 TX-29 \$10.13 60,090 593,273 Sylvia R. Garcia
64 CA-35 \$10.29 57,816 561,743 Norma J. Torres
65 PA-17 \$10.58 40,745 385,188 Conor James Lamb Targeted
66 CO-6 \$10.70 38,954 363,950 Jason Crow Targeted
67 NY-3 \$10.80 47,942 443,705 Thomas R. Suozzi
68 TX-33 \$10.93 64,685 591,543 Marc Veasey
69 NY-25 \$11.01 48,508 440,647 Joseph D. Morelle
70 MD-8 \$11.40 57,583 505,232 Jamie Raskin
71 CA-24 \$11.42 48,669 426,336 Salud Carbajal
72 FL-9 \$11.50 47,607 414,030 Darren Soto
73 IL-17 \$11.55 55,569 481,018 Cheri Bustos Targeted
74 CA-51 \$11.71 65,226 556,939 Juan Vargas
75 MN-3 \$11.98 41,565 346,818 Dean Phillips Targeted
76 OH-13 \$12.03 55,276 459,397 Tim Ryan
77 NJ-11 \$12.23 47,362 387,193 Mikie Sherrill Targeted
78 IL-8 \$12.26 62,981 513,640 Raja Krishnamoorthi
79 FL-13 \$12.31 48,463 393,796 Charlie Crist Targeted
80 NM-1 \$12.31 56,829 461,605 Debra A Haaland
81 NJ-6 \$12.32 60,309 489,572 Frank Pallone Jr.
82 FL-7 \$12.41 48,828 393,369 Stephanie Murphy Targeted
83 CA-32 \$12.46 66,487 533,736 Grace Flores Napolitano
84 MD-3 \$12.80 66,588 520,239 John Sarbanes
85 AZ-9 \$12.89 57,921 449,522 Greg Stanton
86 IL-11 \$13.05 63,049 483,002 Bill Foster
87 NY-4 \$13.09 58,964 450,561 Kathleen M. Rice
88 PA-6 \$13.10 53,580 408,939 Christina Jampoler Houlahan
89 IN-7 \$13.12 64,682 493,171 Andre D. Carson
90 VA-10 \$13.27 45,515 342,972 Jennifer T. Wexton Targeted
91 CA-26 \$13.40 61,006 455,341 Julia Brownley
92 CA-47 \$13.41 65,672 489,731 Alan Lowenthal
93 OR-5 \$13.43 47,300 352,298 Kurt Schrader
94 WA-10 \$14.15 62,355 440,692 Denny Heck
95 CT-4 \$14.20 61,805 435,116 Jim Himes
96 TX-16 \$14.24 75,310 529,013 Veronica Escobar
97 MD-5 \$14.26 73,344 514,284 Steny H. Hoyer
98 FL-23 \$14.31 62,165 434,401 Debbie Wasserman Schultz
99 CA-38 \$14.99 76,220 508,611 Linda T. Sanchez
100 MI-5 \$15.02 65,237 434,354 Daniel T. Kildee
101 MD-7 \$15.09 83,017 550,069 Elijah Cummings
102 WI-3 \$15.39 60,908 395,778 Ron Kind Targeted
103 MA-9 \$15.74 60,884 386,839 Bill Keating
104 IL-10 \$15.76 74,416 472,103 Brad Schneider
105 IN-1 \$15.90 74,017 465,558 Peter J. Visclosky
106 CA-40 \$15.94 93,938 589,318 Lucille Roybal-Allard Unopposed
107 NY-14 \$16.00 91,116 569,563 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez <20%
108 NJ-9 \$16.26 82,978 510,351 Bill Pascrell Jr.
109 WA-1 \$16.32 61,675 378,024 Suzan DelBene
110 NJ-8 \$16.36 91,156 557,312 Albio Sires <20%
111 RI-2 \$16.39 54,205 330,803 James R. Langevin
112 RI-1 \$16.45 58,532 355,917 David N. Cicilline
113 KY-3 \$16.45 71,072 432,047 John A. Yarmuth
114 OR-4 \$16.66 56,296 337,874 Peter DeFazio Targeted
115 MD-4 \$16.87 91,666 543,405 Anthony G. Brown
116 NM-3 \$16.91 78,774 465,874 Ben R Lujan
117 TX-35 \$16.98 87,725 516,700 Lloyd Doggett
118 CA-29 \$17.03 94,702 556,075 Tony Cardenas <20%
119 MI-9 \$17.14 69,611 406,204 Andy Levin
120 SC-6 \$17.15 86,483 504,334 James E Jim Clyburn
121 OH-9 \$17.24 82,549 478,830 Marcy Kaptur
122 CA-44 \$17.26 97,944 567,445 Nanette Diaz Barragan Unopposed
123 MO-5 \$17.32 73,950 426,982 Emanuel Cleaver, II
124 FL-22 \$17.33 71,585 413,084 Ted Deutch
125 HI-1 \$17.50 92,152 526,556 Ed Case
126 CT-3 \$17.91 78,905 440,528 Rosa L DeLauro
127 CT-1 \$18.11 79,063 436,627 John B Larson
128 CT-2 \$18.32 77,248 421,653 Joe Courtney
129 NJ-1 \$18.33 82,011 447,349 Donald W. Norcross
130 MA-3 \$18.48 79,730 431,440 Lori Loureiro Trahan
131 NY-6 \$19.01 111,646 587,346 Grace Meng Unopposed
132 TX-18 \$19.06 100,336 526,435 Sheila Jackson Lee
133 VA-4 \$19.45 79,936 410,913 A. Donald McEachin
134 AZ-7 \$19.53 113,044 578,716 Ruben Gallego Unopposed
135 CA-34 \$19.72 110,195 558,861 Jimmy Gomez Unopposed
136 NY-20 \$19.73 87,753 444,753 Paul D. Tonko
137 CA-52 \$19.76 81,977 414,760 Scott Peters
138 NY-15 \$20.53 119,264 581,016 Jose E. Serrano <20%
139 TX-28 \$20.56 117,494 571,541 Henry Cuellar Unopposed
140 NJ-12 \$20.57 94,293 458,392 Bonnie Watson Coleman
141 FL-5 \$20.60 90,728 440,441 Al Lawson
142 TN-9 \$20.83 110,238 529,291 Steve Cohen <20%
143 TN-5 \$20.87 93,606 448,519 Jim Cooper
144 CA-43 \$21.08 108,492 514,715 Maxine Waters
145 HI-2 \$21.15 108,421 512,646 Tulsi Gabbard
146 CA-19 \$21.34 104,673 490,448 Zoe Lofgren
147 CA-17 \$21.43 107,048 499,605 Ro Khanna
148 IL-3 \$21.58 105,168 487,433 Daniel William Lipinski
149 FL-24 \$22.21 129,192 581,575 Frederica Wilson Unopposed
150 IL-4 \$22.33 121,601 544,578 Jesus “Chuy” Garcia <20%
151 NY-26 \$22.43 107,678 480,104 Brian Higgins
152 CO-7 \$22.68 84,526 372,761 Ed Perlmutter
153 PA-5 \$22.80 92,564 406,053 Mary Gay Scanlon
154 MA-2 \$23.00 97,941 425,874 James P. McGovern
155 PA-2 \$23.04 117,218 508,785 Brendan F Boyle
156 WA-6 \$23.15 89,732 387,681 Derek Kilmer
157 CA-53 \$23.20 102,540 441,973 Susan A. Davis
158 PA-4 \$23.84 90,057 377,776 Madeleine Dean Cunnane
159 CA-15 \$24.00 112,049 466,838 Eric Swalwell
160 ME-1 \$24.41 90,007 368,714 Chellie Pingree
161 TX-9 \$24.43 136,256 557,766 Al Green Unopposed
162 NC-1 \$24.71 108,239 438,092 G. K. Butterfield
163 OH-3 \$25.11 116,535 464,090 Joyce Beatty
164 TX-20 \$25.80 139,038 538,804 Joaquin Castro Unopposed
165 NY-7 \$26.50 146,687 553,465 Nydia M. Velazquez Unopposed
166 NY-10 \$27.11 135,476 499,809 Jerrold L. Nadler <20%
167 CA-30 \$27.16 122,153 449,774 Brad Sherman
168 MI-12 \$27.75 115,473 416,139 Debbie Dingell
169 DE \$28.48 101,969 358,030 Lisa Blunt Rochester
170 NY-5 \$29.22 160,500 549,296 Gregory W. Meeks Unopposed
171 NC-12 \$29.84 128,810 431,629 Alma Adams
172 MA-6 \$29.96 112,905 376,792 Seth W. Moulton
173 NJ-10 \$30.37 155,062 510,608 Donald M. Payne Jr. <20%
174 CA-11 \$30.58 133,057 435,086 Mark DeSaulnier
175 IL-1 \$30.60 138,600 452,882 Bobby L. Rush <20%
176 IL-2 \$30.73 146,117 475,516 Robin Kelly <20%
177 CA-28 \$30.97 142,390 459,833 Adam B. Schiff
178 MN-4 \$31.17 119,118 382,153 Betty McCollum
179 CA-33 \$31.50 125,322 397,907 Ted W. Lieu
180 CA-27 \$31.59 160,504 508,131 Judy Chu Unopposed
181 TX-30 \$31.61 166,784 527,593 Eddie Bernice Johnson Unopposed
182 NY-9 \$31.65 160,554 507,344 Yvette D. Clarke <20%
183 CA-6 \$31.92 162,411 508,828 Doris Matsui Unopposed
184 MI-13 \$32.14 165,355 514,468 Rashida Tlaib Unopposed
185 IL-9 \$32.44 136,385 420,416 Janice D. Schakowsky
186 MS-2 \$32.47 158,921 489,388 Bennie G. Thompson Unopposed
187 NY-13 \$32.64 169,767 520,079 Adriano Espaillat <20%
188 NY-17 \$32.92 170,168 516,926 Nita M. Lowey Unopposed
189 OR-1 \$33.02 114,752 347,518 Suzanne Bonamici
190 VT \$33.30 117,842 353,848 Peter Welch
191 WI-4 \$33.68 147,396 437,680 Gwen S. Moore
192 VA-11 \$33.83 136,168 402,517 Gerald Edward Connolly
193 IL-5 \$34.49 148,858 431,636 Mike Quigley
194 NY-16 \$34.52 182,044 527,411 Eliot L. Engel Unopposed
195 WA-9 \$34.74 163,345 470,200 Adam Smith Unopposed
196 NY-8 \$34.74 180,376 519,200 Hakeem S. Jeffries Unopposed
197 CA-14 \$35.13 155,945 443,944 Jackie Speier
198 OH-11 \$35.13 161,652 460,107 Marcia L. Fudge <20%
199 AL-7 \$35.47 185,010 521,604 Terri Sewell Unopposed
200 CA-18 \$36.24 148,046 408,529 Anna G. Eshoo
201 GA-13 \$36.71 153,397 417,850 David Scott
202 MI-14 \$37.78 168,435 445,773 Brenda Lawrence <20%
203 CA-20 \$37.87 183,677 485,046 Jimmy Panetta Unopposed
204 FL-14 \$38.02 195,789 514,978 Kathy Castor Unopposed
205 FL-10 \$38.75 198,491 512,276 Val Demings Unopposed
206 CA-37 \$38.94 184,732 474,389 Karen Bass <20%
207 GA-4 \$39.49 166,625 421,958 Henry C “Hank” Johnson Jr
208 MO-1 \$39.85 173,914 436,392 Lacy Clay <20%
209 IL-7 \$39.88 185,249 464,524 Danny K. Davis <20%
210 FL-20 \$39.90 202,659 507,943 Alcee L. Hastings Unopposed
211 LA-2 \$40.06 190,182 474,785 Cedric Richmond Unopposed
212 VA-3 \$40.28 198,615 493,045 Robert C. “Bobby” Scott Unopposed
213 MA-5 \$40.40 161,387 399,443 Katherine M. Clark
214 NY-12 \$40.75 186,984 458,890 Carolyn B. Maloney <20%
215 CO-2 \$40.94 114,707 280,153 Joe Neguse
216 FL-21 \$42.11 210,606 500,161 Lois Frankel Unopposed
217 MA-1 \$42.88 211,790 493,867 Richard E. Neal Unopposed
218 CA-2 \$43.15 170,505 395,110 Jared Huffman
219 VA-8 \$44.10 170,238 386,019 Donald S. Beyer, Jr.
220 MA-7 \$44.16 216,559 490,356 Ayanna S. Pressley Unopposed
221 NC-4 \$44.68 165,015 369,364 David Price
222 CA-5 \$45.77 205,860 449,749 Mike Thompson Unopposed
223 PA-18 \$48.29 231,472 479,295 Michael F Doyle Jr. Unopposed
224 WA-2 \$50.53 210,187 415,934 Rick Larsen Unopposed
225 MN-5 \$52.60 193,263 367,409 Ilhan Omar
226 MA-4 \$53.35 245,289 459,751 Joseph P. Kennedy, III Unopposed
227 CO-1 \$55.03 187,679 341,074 Diana DeGette
228 MA-8 \$57.92 259,159 447,460 Stephen F. Lynch Unopposed
229 CA-12 \$59.31 233,512 393,695 Nancy Pelosi <20%
230 OR-3 \$62.13 202,832 326,441 Earl Blumenauer <20%
231 CA-13 \$62.65 260,580 415,930 Barbara Lee Unopposed
232 GA-5 \$63.26 275,406 435,361 John R. Lewis Unopposed
233 PA-3 \$66.35 267,223 402,770 Dwight Evans <20%
234 WI-2 \$78.56 309,116 393,472 Mark Pocan Unopposed
235 WA-7 \$83.81 264,919 316,086 Pramila Jayapal <20%

Wowie zowie. That is fascinating. The RNCC has heavily targeted the lowest cost congressional districts. That is, the lowest cost by my metric, and my calculations, which are only a first approximation.

This tells me the folks in the RNCC might very well know what they’re doing in this area. And they’re using a similar strategy. And that the house has a serious chance of being flipped Republican in 2020.

1. Contributor
Gary McVey
@GaryMcVey

A fine piece of work, Don. Pretty clearly once we get into three digits, the fight is over; the only hope of getting rid of AOC (for example) is hoping the Democrats primary her, replacing her with a less obnoxious Dem. That’s not great, but it’s not nothing.

There are other variables; the top of the 2020 ticket is one of them. Some districts will not want to strengthen Trump’s hand no matter how much we spend. Some, of course, run the other direction, mildly or moderately pro-Dem on the Congressional level, but susceptible to trying to help the president.

Also, they know who we’re targeting and will raise their own expenditure accordingly.

2. Member
Mark Camp
@MarkCamp

Don,

I’m glad we have people who can do this stuff! It’s amazing to folks like me.

3. Member
Zafar
@Zafar

If you ‘switched hats’ would there be districts which are similarly vulnerable to Democrat flips?

4. Member
The Cloaked Gaijin
@TheCloakedGaijin

123 MO-5 \$17.32 73,950 426,982 Emanuel Cleaver, III

I think the last time that that Kansas City, Missouri, congressional district voted Republican was 1946.

It’s only a D+7 district now that some suburbs have been attached to it, but it would still be tough.

Missouri only has 8 congressional districts now.  Between 1903 and 1933, it had twice that number.  That’s one of only 2 Democrat-held congressional districts in the state.

I guess the Republicans came within just over 10,000 votes in 2014 and 17,500 votes in the Tea Party year of 2010 of winning that district.  Those were non-presidential years, and I think the Democrats are now focusing on those non-presidential year elections more recently.

5. Moderator

Excellent work.  I like the nitty gritty analysis of data – I am a scientist when not being a safety ninja.  I have Danny Davis as my rep, and I’ve supported his challenger every year.  They usually get a small business owner to run, but they are getting harder to come by.

6. Contributor
Gary McVey
@GaryMcVey

If you ‘switched hats’ would there be districts which are similarly vulnerable to Democrat flips?

Traditionally Republican suburbs are obvious targets, particularly women. Unlike deeply Democrat districts in urban areas, suburban women are more likely to be married, therefore more likely to be solidly middle class. They were nearly as solidly Republican as their husbands until roughly the turn of this century. They didn’t like Bush or the Iraq war–the “security Moms” we claimed would make Donald Rumsfeld a pin-up star didn’t emerge–but they stayed loyal enough to drive off John Kerry. They weren’t strongly pro-Obama, and their GOP-leaning votes proved it, but were and are generally more amenable to putting money into health care and education budgets than men, and liked Obama as a husband and father, seemingly a good role model for Black America. Trump actually won among married women in 2016, but it was a hold-your-nose vote for many of them. By and large, outside of the South, they don’t like President Trump. They might vote for him anyway in 2020 if the alternative is awful. (And the Dems know how to find awful.)

This is something that the president’s biggest boosters don’t seem to get. They can win without the support of one single NeverTrump pundit or voter. But if he loses the Reluctant Trump voters, he loses, big time, no matter what Dilbert’s creator tells you. He can’t make them even more reluctant and still win re-election. That’ll be the bellwether in 2020.

7. Member
namlliT noD
@DonTillman

A fine piece of work, Don. Pretty clearly once we get into three digits, the fight is over; the only hope of getting rid of AOC (for example) is hoping the Democrats primary her, replacing her with a less obnoxious Dem. That’s not great, but it’s not nothing.

Thanks.

What are the three digits?

Strategically, you wouldn’t want to replace AOC with a less obnoxious Democrat.  She’s a solid negative for the party in her current position, and she’s only one vote, so it would be better to use the resources elsewhere.

I think it is possible to flip her seat as she sounds so crazy foolish whenever she opens her mouth.  It would require someone with an exceptionally strong personality to go against her media leverage.

There are other variables; the top of the 2020 ticket is one of them. Some districts will not want to strengthen Trump’s hand no matter how much we spend. Some, of course, run the other direction, mildly or moderately pro-Dem on the Congressional level, but susceptible to trying to help the president.

I’d be hesitant to assign emotional sorts of attributes to congressional districts.

Also, they know who we’re targeting and will raise their own expenditure accordingly.

Quite possibly, unless the party organization is nonfunctional.

8. Member
namlliT noD
@DonTillman

If you ‘switched hats’ would there be districts which are similarly vulnerable to Democrat flips?

Oh yeah, I’m sure.  Part 7 maybe.

9. Reagan
Gary Robbins
@GaryRobbins

Great work!  There are 235 Dems, and you have listed them in order of most vulnerable (#1) to the least vulnerable (#235).

The so-called “Squad” cannot be beaten by Republicans; the only way to beat them is in the Democratic Primary, as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is #107, Rashida Talib is #184, Ayanna Presley is #200, and Ilhan Omar is #225.  However, it would be a very good thing indeed, to have them be defeated by less radical Dems.

10. Contributor
Gary McVey
@GaryMcVey

A fine piece of work, Don. Pretty clearly once we get into three digits, the fight is over; the only hope of getting rid of AOC (for example) is hoping the Democrats primary her, replacing her with a less obnoxious Dem. That’s not great, but it’s not nothing.

Thanks.

What are the three digits?

Above #102, there’s only one target, so it looks like the GOP’s sabremetric crowd agrees.

Strategically, you wouldn’t want to replace AOC with a less obnoxious Democrat. She’s a solid negative for the party in her current position, and she’s only one vote, so it would be better to use the resources elsewhere.

Sure, as a partisan, but as a citizen I prefer sane Dems to insane ones.

I think it is possible to flip her seat as she sounds so crazy foolish whenever she opens her mouth. It would require someone with an exceptionally strong personality to go against her media leverage.

It could be done by a more pro-Israel Republican who is also, like the citizens of the district, pro-abortion rights, pro-gay rights, and anti-gun. Basically, Michael Bloomberg, but there aren’t many of him.

There are other variables; the top of the 2020 ticket is one of them. Some districts will not want to strengthen Trump’s hand no matter how much we spend. Some, of course, run the other direction, mildly or moderately pro-Dem on the Congressional level, but susceptible to trying to help the president.

I’d be hesitant to assign emotional sorts of attributes to congressional districts.

You’re sticking to the numbers, which is consistent. I’m also looking at shading, which affects which targets are flippable, no matter how much money is spent.

Also, they know who we’re targeting and will raise their own expenditure accordingly.

Quite possibly, unless the party organization is nonfunctional.

The Democrats have the loyalties of the tech industry and academia; it seems like they’d have pretty good grasp of the numbers. If their party organization is disfunctional, it was functional enough to win in 2018.

11. Member
namlliT noD
@DonTillman

Great work! There are 235 Dems, and you have listed them in order of most vulnerable (#1) to the least vulnerable (#235).

Thanks.

Yes, that’s it.

The so-called “Squad” cannot be beaten by Republicans; the only way to beat them is in the Democratic Primary, as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is #107, Rashida Talib is #184, Ayanna Presley is #200, and Ilhan Omar is #225. However, it would be a very good thing indeed, to have them be defeated by less radical Dems.

The impetus behind this was that, while some members congress are constantly in the news, others are completely unknown, and regardless of their stardom, they each have one vote.

If the goal is getting the required number of Republican votes in the house, it’s best not to think about the congressfolk who happen to be in the news, but rather the ones in the districts with the most winnable elections.  And who are they?  This table provides a good guess.

Strategically, I think it would be better to leave The Squid in place.  They make the rest of the Dems look bad, and they disrupt the party’s organization.

12. Thatcher
Bryan G. Stephens
@BryanGStephens

Just wow

13. Member
Illiniguy
@Illiniguy

@dontillman This is good stuff. I live in IL-14 and am helping a colleague of mine from the Illinois General Assembly run for that seat. This could be a big help, because my county is critical to winning the primary and the general. I’m also running for re-election to my own seat in the Illinois House, and would like to use a variation on the formula to see how much my opponent (yet to be determined) will have to spend to beat me. It’s things like this that makes Ricochet worth the price of admission.

14. Moderator

@dontillman This is good stuff. I live in IL-14 and am helping a colleague of mine from the Illinois General Assembly run for that seat. This could be a big help, because my county is critical to winning the primary and the general. I’m also running for re-election to my own seat in the Illinois House, and would like to use a variation on the formula to see how much my opponent (yet to be determined) will have to spend to beat me. It’s things like this that makes Ricochet worth the price of admission.

Good luck.  IL is ill , and could use more republican leaders.  We might be able to have something survive the crash.

15. Member
Hang On
@HangOn

I live in district 221. I think i will continue snoozing since I’m not going to move.

16. Member

Outstanding. Thank you so much.

I got a call two weeks ago out of the blue from a guy, name of Tony German, who’s running in NY-19 against Antonio Delgado, a total piece of [CoC]. Tony and I had a nice long chat. It was quite impressive. Papa Toad and I will be going to a fundraiser next month.

I’m going to send him the link to your essay, noD. I bet he’ll find it pretty interesting!

17. Member
namlliT noD
@DonTillman

Outstanding. Thank you so much.

I got a call two weeks ago out of the blue from a guy, name of Tony German, who’s running in NY-19 against Antonio Delgado, a total piece of [CoC]. Tony and I had a nice long chat. It was quite impressive. Papa Toad and I will be going to a fundraiser next month.

I’m going to send him the link to your essay, noD. I bet he’ll find it pretty interesting!

You are quite welcome, Mizz Toad.

Lessee, NY-19…  Oh wow, number 22 on the list.  Lost by only 15,000 votes, and there are about 423,000 people who didn’t vote, and thus potentially available new voters.  That is very winnable.

And NY-19 is officially targeted by the RNCC so you’ll likely have all sorts of resources available.

‘Looks good!

18. Member
namlliT noD
@DonTillman

@dontillman This is good stuff. I live in IL-14 and am helping a colleague of mine from the Illinois General Assembly run for that seat. This could be a big help, because my county is critical to winning the primary and the general. I’m also running for re-election to my own seat in the Illinois House, and would like to use a variation on the formula to see how much my opponent (yet to be determined) will have to spend to beat me. It’s things like this that makes Ricochet worth the price of admission.

Thanks.

And IL-14 is number 23 on the list.  Wow.  Missed by only 14,871 votes, and 413,000 nonvoters to woo.  Very winnable.

And it, too, is officially targeted by the RNCC, so you’ll have resources available.

The future looks bright.

19. Member
namlliT noD
@DonTillman

I live in district 221. I think i will continue snoozing since I’m not going to move.

Hmm, NC-4?

(By the way, Wikipedia does a pretty good job on congressional districts in general.)

Whoa, same congressman for 22 years?  Court mandated redistricting because of gerrymandering?

That’s a tough one, man.

20. Reagan
Gary Robbins
@GaryRobbins

I live in district 221. I think i will continue snoozing since I’m not going to move.

Hmm, NC-4?

(By the way, Wikipedia does a pretty good job on congressional districts in general.)

Whoa, congressman for 22 years? Courted mandated redistricting because of gerrymandering?

That’s a tough one, man.

Actually I disagree.  The NC Republican Legislature packed as many Democrats in that district as possible.  (Maryland Democrats did the same thing to MD-1, so that there is only one Republican in the Maryland Congressional Delegation, unlike 1994 when there were four Republicans out of 8.)

For better or worse, the NC Supreme Court has ordered that NC be redistricted.  So NC 4 will not be so lopsided Democratic.  (On the other hand, this means that more NC Republican districts will be vulnerable.)

21. Member
Hang On
@HangOn

I live in district 221. I think i will continue snoozing since I’m not going to move.

Hmm, NC-4?

(By the way, Wikipedia does a pretty good job on congressional districts in general.)

Whoa, congressman for 22 years? Courted mandated redistricting because of gerrymandering?

That’s a tough one, man.

Actually I disagree. The NC Republican Legislature packed as many Democrats in that district as possible. (Maryland Democrats did the same thing to MD-1, so that there is only one Republican in the Maryland Congressional Delegation, unlike 1994 when there were four Republicans out of 8.)

For better or worse, the NC Supreme Court has ordered that NC be redistricted. So NC 4 will not be so lopsided Democratic. (On the other hand, this means that more NC Republican districts will be vulnerable.)

NC 4 is a very logically drawn district. It is RTP with three research universities and Price brings home the bacon. It is compact and not one that is obviously gerrymandered.

22. Reagan
Gary Robbins
@GaryRobbins

I live in district 221. I think i will continue snoozing since I’m not going to move.

Hmm, NC-4?

(By the way, Wikipedia does a pretty good job on congressional districts in general.)

Whoa, congressman for 22 years? Courted mandated redistricting because of gerrymandering?

That’s a tough one, man.

Actually I disagree. The NC Republican Legislature packed as many Democrats in that district as possible. (Maryland Democrats did the same thing to MD-1, so that there is only one Republican in the Maryland Congressional Delegation, unlike 1994 when there were four Republicans out of 8.)

For better or worse, the NC Supreme Court has ordered that NC be redistricted. So NC 4 will not be so lopsided Democratic. (On the other hand, this means that more NC Republican districts will be vulnerable.)

NC 4 is a very logically drawn district. It is RTP with three research universities and Price brings home the bacon. It is compact and not one that is obviously gerrymandered.

RTP?

23. Member
Boss Mongo
@BossMongo

Gary McVey (View Comment):
Sure, as a partisan, but as a citizen I prefer sane Dems to insane ones.

@garymcvey, then your options are precisely zero.

They are all insane, if viewed thru the lens of the policies they support and would execute en masse if they could.

24. Reagan
Gary Robbins
@GaryRobbins

Gary McVey (View Comment):
Sure, as a partisan, but as a citizen I prefer sane Dems to insane ones.

@garymcvey, then your options are precisely zero.

They are all insane, if viewed thru the lens of the policies they support and would execute en masse if they could.

There is a huge difference between an AOC and a Steve Bullock.

There is a huge difference between a Steve King and a Kevin McCarthy.

25. Contributor
Gary McVey
@GaryMcVey

Gary McVey (View Comment):
Sure, as a partisan, but as a citizen I prefer sane Dems to insane ones.

@garymcvey, then your options are precisely zero.

They are all insane, if viewed thru the lens of the policies they support and would execute en masse if they could.

In my district, they might as well be zero, so I keep tossing sand in the gears. There are more and less sane Democrats, so if stuck with my usual choices, I’ll vote for the sane one. If they’re both crazy, I don’t vote for either of them.

26. Contributor
Gary McVey
@GaryMcVey

Gary McVey (View Comment):
Sure, as a partisan, but as a citizen I prefer sane Dems to insane ones.

@garymcvey, then your options are precisely zero.

They are all insane, if viewed thru the lens of the policies they support and would execute en masse if they could.

There is a huge difference between an AOC and a Steve Bullock.

There is a huge difference between a Steve King and a Kevin McCarthy.

Absolutely. I’d vote for Jim Webb over Steve King, or Daniel P. Moynihan over Roy Moore any day of the week. Most conservatives wish we had Truman-JFK type opponents, the kind the Democratic Party won’t support anymore.