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NC -9 Why it’s a Real Win
Context is important. Every race is different. Nowadays you have to dig deep to find it.
Here’s what I heard: Bishop, the Republican, only won by 2% in a district that Trump carried by 9% in 2016. Supposedly, this means that support for Republicans (and more importantly for the spinners, Trump) is eroding.
On the third page of the google search, I found some context.
Apparently, Republicans had been found cheating ( not sure if this was actually true, but it doesn’t matter for the sake of this post). The Democrat who’d been cheated, McCready, a moderate and Marine, ran again, the Republican candidate was replaced by unknown, Bishop.
So the moderate Marine Democrat who was cheated out of his Congressional seat who had already run a campaign in the district still lost to a relatively obscure Republican.
I think that just might account for the 7% discrepancy.
By the way, Democrats have been moving rightward of late, trying desperately to win. That is kind of a good thing, right?
Published in General
No, because they aren’t true to it once they do get elected.
True but only to a certain extent. And we are talking about voters, perceptions and whether NC is going to turn blue for 2020. So this shows they can’t even win with a perceived moderate with Marine credentials. So Elizabeth Warren is going to prevail in NC? Not likely.
I’m in NC, not in that district but close enough that we saw all of the advertising on TV during the last few weeks. Here’s what struck me, as someone who had not been following the race at all.
First, if the TV commercials were any indication, McCready did not run as a Democrat. He certainly didn’t identify himself as one, nor did he mention anything that was identifiably a Democratic position. He presented himself as patriotic and nonpartisan.
Bishop, on the other hand, aligned himself quite explicitly with Trump; the commercial that was in the heaviest rotation over the last couple of weeks consisted entirely of Trump singing Bishop’s praises, and of course Trump held a rally for him a few days ago. I wondered if this would prove to be a mistake, but it seems not.
I am not a political pundit, so I’m not going to attempt to extrapolate to national politics. But I do find it interesting. Did Bishop win despite aligning himself with Trump, or because of it? Did McCready lose despite distancing himself from the Democrats, or because of it?
I’m in that district, and @bartholomewxerxesogilviejr is correct about how McCready tried to position himself. He ran the same way in 2018.
As I noted in a comment on another thread, the Dems outspent the Reps in this election by roughly 2-1. They really went all out to try to win the seat. So I’d say McCready lost despite trying to position himself as a very moderate Democrat.
Don’t republicans normally have an advantage in off year elections, because they show up to vote?
Some additional context from NR …
The previous candidate was Mark Harris, whom Bishop had to replace just earlier this year due to validated election fraud by a member of his staff. Because of this, Bishop was down 17% to the democrat just three weeks ago.
And …. Dan Bishop was tarred as the sponsor of the much hated Bathroom Bill.
And … he still won.
If he had lost, it would have been all President Trump’s fault. I don’t blame the President for suggesting it’s his win.
Midterm elections and special elections are suggestive, not predictive. The best analysis I’ve seen of the election this morning is that the suburbs swung more towards the democrats (Mecklenburg was already pretty much there), but the exurbs and rural areas swung hard republican. So, suburban whites are switching parties with exurban whites. No idea how that shakes out long term. There are roughly as many of each, so… tight elections for the forseable future unless the GOP can make more inroads with African Americans or Hispanics.
Prediction: Pain.
If you believe polls.
You don’t still believe polls, do you?
Well, I would say nothing is predictive and everything is suggestive… of something anyway.
This election pitted a Marine who had already ran in the district, who campaigned as a “country before party” kinda guy versus an open Trump supporter with little name recognition. We can separate it out geographically or by gender, whatever, but it suggests to me that Trump will do just fine in 2020.
Not getting cocky, but the spin is that there’s an erosion of support since 2016. Considering the specifics of this race, I don’t think that’s accurate.
Paul Mirengoff at Powerline also dissects this contest.
Pretty much my point, with better writing. Thanks!
You said
“Here’s what I heard: Bishop, the Republican, only won by 2% in a district that Trump carried by 9% in 2016. Supposedly, this means that support for Republicans (and more importantly for the spinners, Trump) is eroding.”
Trump won NC-9 in 2016 by 11 points, not 9.
The Republican Party has held this district since 1963. It is a R+8 district according to the Cook Partisan Index. It is stunning that it was this close.
The suburbs tell a very scary story. The Democrat improved by about 10 points over Trump’s 2016 performance in the portion of Mecklenburg County that is in NC-9. That is deadly, and follows the Republican collapse in the suburbs in 2018. A chill wind is blowing. When will we wake up and realize that our only hope is to dump Trump?
My take is its still a “loss” because you would expect a bigger correction of 2018 results, after almost a year of Democrat House rule and insane Dem 2020 primary. Instead, it looks like not much has changed since 2018. Suburbanites still hate the GOP…..and the next few months of Democrat lunacy probably won’t change that.
The good news is Trump will bring in loads of black voters to make up for all the suburbanites that are fleeing. So, we’ve got that going for us.
I was looking at the spending on this election and was surprised to see the republicans outspent the democrats.
10.7 Million was spent on this election, with the republicans outspending by a 2:1 margin – according to a Charlotte Observer story.
https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article234767102.html
I take it this is locally.
Trying to follow the link prompted a malware attack. My Norton stopped it.
Interesting. A link that gives a virus and a statement that is completely contradicted by comments #4 and #5 from North Carolinians on the ground.
Likewise, I’m no pundit or pollster. I heard Limbaugh cite an interesting statistic on my drive home from a dental appointment this morning. Cumberland County, in this district, is 35% African-American. Trump did not carry Cumberland County in 2016. Bishop carried Cumberland County in this special election and he carried the district by a higher percentage than the republican did in the voided election last year. This sure looks like some movement in the minority community.
We have been instructed that aligning oneself with Trump will cause huge losses. Perhaps our “instructors” don’t know what they’re babbling about.
ooops…
I was thinking of Jon Ossof and Beto, who’s election failures cost democrats millions and googled “NC 9 spending” and this article came up… Is this not a real newspaper?
I apologize if I accidentally spread fake news.
Compare and contrast:
NC-9: Dan vs. Dan …. with POTUS 2020: President Trump vs. a neo-Socialist.
NC-9: Both Dan’s love America. Democrat Dan is a former Marine*. POTUS 2020: The President loves America, the neo-socialist detests it, and especially Marines.
NC-9: *McCready: I’m running for Congress to work across the aisle to lower healthcare costs that are crushing the budgets of our families. I’m running to strengthen our public schools. I’m running to cut middle class taxes to help more families and small businesses get ahead. I’m running to bring us together. POTUS 2020: neo-Socialist: America is racist. America is ugly and horrible. Everything should be free. To Everybody, including illegal aliens … except Republicans. I’m running to pull us apart. President Trump: America will never be a socialist country. We were born free and we will stay free.
NC-9: a ballot tampering scandal forces Republicans to run a new candidate in an elections board directed new election. POTUS 2020: The incumbent Republican President runs on his sterling record of accomplishment in his first term.
NC-9: Democrat Dan narrowly lost in December 2018 in this same race. He is known locally and is a popular moderate. The last minute Republican stand-in is mostly known for the “Bathroom Bill.” POTUS 2020: In the previous election, a more moderate democrat lost in the electoral college 227 – 304 to the incumbent President, who is well known, with a sterling track record.
NC-9: The stand-in Republican candidate was 17% down three weeks out. POTUS 2020: The President of the United States is proof that the fake media pay for fake push polls in collusion with their DNC masters. And he still won’t be down 17% three weeks out. Three guesses why the dummies are still trying to impeach (sic) our President. The first two guesses don’t count and the hint is that their secret non-fake inside polls tell them they are losing … again.
NC-9: Both Dan’s distanced themselves from the socialist democrats. Their platforms were not greatly distinguishable. As shared above, McCready’s ads even avoided mention of his party. Yes, Dan Bishop embraced his President more, to his great benefit, not detraction. POTUS 2020: the socialists will be full-on socialists. It’s what they do. They will attack America and its people and will advocate policies that harm the economy and the very constituents whom they pretend to represent. President Trump will pledge to keep America great and he will continue to improve the lives of the historic democrat constituencies living in their neo-plantations.
Anyone who says that the NC-9 results have negative implications for President Trump in POTUS 2020 is engaging in fact-free wishful thinking. That, or they are speaking out of an unnatural orifice. In my opinion of course.
Henry Olsen … at the Washington comPost … North Carolina’s special election is great news for President Trump’s re-election chances
Ditto.
What Rahm Emanuel and the more pragmatic liberal Democrats set up in 2006 was to have candidates campaign as moderates to win back the House and Senate, and then to act like moderates to win re-election in 2008, because they knew with Bush in the White House, any progressive plans they passed would simply get vetoed, but would out the people who voted for it as being more liberal than how they campaigned prior to the next election.
It was only when Obama won the White House that the chips were called in, and the moderates had to vote for things they previously had said they were opposed to (remember Bart Stupak and his Obamcare abortion turnaround?). Once the moderates in swing districts started voting like they were representing the Upper West Side of Manhattan or Santa Monica, the backlash was the 2010 election, followed by the 2014 one.
The bottom line is, I think Dems who try to distance themselves from socialists will be looked at by voters as either liars, or people who will drink the leftist Kool-Aid once in office:
“Thank you, Nancy! May I have another glass for that committee position?”
It would be a good thing if they weren’t lying through their lying teeth. I ‘member Obamacare…I will never vote for a Democrat again, no matter what noises come out of their mouths. I can hardly believe anyone else buys their moderate BS anymore.
Here’s my question: What kind of retard reporter thinks that it’s a good idea to call NC-9 a Bellwether? It’s got Fayetteville in it.
Ya know what abuts Fayetteville? Fort Bragg.
Let’s do a quick roll call of FBNC:
-18th Airborne Corps
-82nd Airborne Division
-United States Army Special Operations Command (Airborne)
-First Special Warfare Command (Airborne)
-Third Special Forces Group (Airborne)
-Army Forces Command (FORSCOM), a four star headquaters
I’m not saying that the district is never going to go blue., but with almost a hundred thousand airborne daddies and their families parked there, the media is going to call the district a bellwether? Really?
The fact that Bragg isn’t even mentioned in the various analyses shows how lame the Mainstream Media is.
So, you’re telling us the Marine never had a chance?
Look, the Devil Dog could have probably won it walking away…if he were a Republican.
Here’s a quote from Rush on his show yesterday:
“Right now, Donald Trump’s the best friend Republicans have had since Reagan. Will they realize it?”
Our only hope is to dump Republicans who won’t help advance Trump’s agenda, which is now America’s agenda.