Ricochet is the best place on the internet to discuss the issues of the day, either through commenting on posts or writing your own for our active and dynamic community in a fully moderated environment. In addition, the Ricochet Audio Network offers over 50 original podcasts with new episodes released every day.
Is Voting a Behavior or an Identity?
Perhaps we got it all wrong.
Since 1964, black voters migrated to the Democrat Party and never looked back. At this point, they support Democratic presidential candidates at rates anywhere between 90-94%. Why?
One approach is to say that black voters are on the Democratic plantation and are unwilling to consider alternatives for a variety of unflattering reasons. I’m with Kevin Williamson in not buying this argument and being a bit repulsed by its condescension. Plus, it’s a bit counter-productive to persuade people to agree with you after you tell them they’ve been duped all along.
However, I’m not with Williamson when he says it’s simply because they prefer the policies of the Democrats to Republicans. Here, we know that blacks are not monolithic in their views, even though they’re monolithic in their voting behavior. I think of the many blacks I know who are religious and very much conservative in their views about economics and welfare, among other issues. Even though they agree with Republicans when it comes to their most deeply held convictions, they still vote for Democrats who disagree with them. But, as a researcher, I know that correlation doesn’t necessarily imply causation.
To bring it back to my opening point, maybe we’ve been going about it the wrong way. As I think about the black voters I know of, it’s apparent to me that voting Democrat is the default option. When everyone you know votes Democrat, it’s only natural that you will also act accordingly, and I’ve heard people tell me as much. So, to me, while black voters may have gone to the Democrats for historical reasons back in the ’60s/’70s, today I think it’s mainly inertia. But it’s so strong that it seems to be more of an attribute than a behavior. That is, Democrat is who we are rather than how we vote. It’s like one’s ethnicity or religion.
What I like about this hypothesis is that it is simple, elegant, and yet explanatory. It explains cognitive dissonance that so many black voters are in when they support candidates who push an agenda they do not believe in at all. I think it also shows that discussions about what the GOP can do to win over black voters are usually exercises in vanity. It’s far too convenient to say the GOP repels black voters when they have no real interest in considering supporting the party.
Now, I should be clear that I’m not arguing the GOP should write-off black voters. I’m a good enough student of politics to know that no trend is ever permanent. It’s possible that black voters will become more polarized than they are now but I don’t know how that will happen, or when. But thinking of black voting as an attribute rather than a behavior can possibly help the GOP figure out ideas to increase their support or, at the very least, eliminate bad ideas that won’t work.
Published in Politics
I live in a Democrat, majority white district, and frequently there are no Republicans running for some local offices. Perhaps some see it as a waste of resources, but how can you win if you don’t even show up for the game?
I think you’re right. For one thing, it accords with my experience shifting—with what seems, in retrospect, downright ludicrous anxiety and anguish—from D to…well, conservative, anyway. And I think it explains the acute stress I cause in loved ones when I challenge them to reconcile their stated views on, say, abortion with their solid, pretty-much mindless allegiance to the Democratic party. (Mine was solid and mindless too, so no judgement here. Or not much, anyway—we are talking about my family.)
And it jibes with my impression that we do a whole lot of life out of sheer habit. Or, anyway, mindlessly. I know this is a banal example, but my first husband and I were determined to replace a rotted little garden shed that was standing—barely—in the yard of our newly-purchased house. We drew pictures. We drafted designs. We labored over the seemingly impossible question of how we were going to fit the larger shed we wanted into the area that would be left once the old one was torn down, and the path we’d have to put in to make it easier to transport bags of bark mulch and whatnot from the driveway fifty yards away.
After my husband died, a friend was visiting, andI was describing the agonies of building this dang shed…”why didn’t you just build it next to the driveway?” He asked.
There was absolutely no reason why. A bunch of state troopers came by and dragged the new, larger, improved and heavy garden shed over to where it should have been to begin with.
If I thought about it, I’d probably be able to come up with fifty stories just like that one…so I’m hardly one to criticize anybody for unthinking allegiance to “the way it’s always been.”
This was once true for blue-collar whites and, longer ago, for Southern whites. I remember when general elections in Alabama were a mere formality. The decisions had been made in the Democratic primary. (The GOP picked its sacrificial candidates in smoke-filled…phone booths.) It took huge changes in the national political landscape to change this default.
What could possibly cause black voters to desert the Democrats? I can’t imagine, especially when they are told incessantly that Republicans are racist.
Of course, if Blacks or Jews started to vote for Rs in significant numbers in a specific precinct, that would be prima facie evidence of voter suppression or fraud or something, because the Ds know that those blocks always vote overwhelmingly for them. IIRC, they sorta made an argument like that in Florida in 2000.
Why did things get worse in 1900?
Yes, you are not going to get much earlier estimates of voting behavior because there was no “scientific” polling done for elections before 1932.
The 1936 vote was 3 years before Eleanor Roosevelt quit the (then white-supremacist controlled) Daughters of the American Revolution and prevailed on the Secretary of the Interior to facilitate a concert from the steps of the Lincoln Memorial by the world-renowned contralto Marian Anderson.
That vote was also 5 years before Eleanor Roosevelt went to Tuskegee, insisted on a black pilot (who she knew already) giving her a ride, then ensuring she got the photograph to take back to FDR.
What a novel idea!
I think Bereket is vaguely familiar with the research on this -but it’s my specialty, so I have it more readily in my mind.
1.) African-American voting for Democrats at the Presidential level began with northern blacks voting for FDR. A lot of this stems from the New Deal, but GOP outreach to African-Americans had been declining basically since 1870. The numerous failures to build any stable coalition with an African-American component finally gave up the ghost, and in the 1930s, when the GOP crumbled, African-Americans moved into the Democratic Party.
2.) African-Americans, more so than any other race or ethnicity, demonstrate block voting. The leading theory, so far as I am aware, is the “shared fate” theory -that the fate of all African-Americans is linked, and so they must all act together. African-Americans, going back to reconstruction, relied on the ability of their votes to turn elections, but that only works if they can reliably offer the entire voting block. GOP outreach often played this up in the 1870s -that if freed slaves would just vote with the GOP -beating the Dems a few times -they would be recognized as a valuable voting block and Dem politicians would start courting their votes. As we know, that didn’t happen.
3.) At the local level, however, it did actually happen -African-American voters in cities, both north and south, could provide the necessary votes to become an integral part of the urban governing coalitions, even before 1964 (most voting restrictions were aimed at primaries and statewide elections -neither of which applied to local elections), and Democrats have always done well in the cities. It is better to be on the inside of the coalition complaining, than completely frozen out.
4.) I don’t fully have an idea how to bring in more African-American voters to the GOP. I think where Williamson might be right (though not exactly) is that, if African-American voting is primarily driven by group protection norms -then the GOP doesn’t really offer them much reason to vote for the GOP. Even the policies the GOP promotes to benefit African-Americans are intended to do so individually -often by helping African-Americans leave their community entirely (hence the “uncle Tom” insults). The GOP has not, historically, done well in terms of talking about group security (speaking as one of the SoCons, I sympathize with African-Americans so much on my frustration with the GOP’s unwillingness to do any form of collective security). I mean, I think dumping excess libertarianism to earn some African-American votes is probably a net gain for the GOP -but it does require a risk.
Neo, formerly Neo-neocon, wrote an excellent series on changing political identity, starting at “A mind is a difficult thing to change, Part 1.”
When local GOP officials can’t even be bothered to show up and march in the MLK Day parade, while the Democrats have multiple entries, representing different precincts, the Republican Party displays casual disregard, which is deservedly returned on Election Day.
Bereket,
Perhaps it is indicative of the times we live that you framed the question between identity and behavior. Shouldn’t it have been between identity and choice? A behavior may simply be a reflex. Freedom is usually associated with conscious choice.
Regards,
Jim
Two observations.
Instead of pursuing a chimera, why not do something practical. Start small and build local Republican parties in cities. For the millions of dollars that will wind up being wasted in 2020 on minority outreach, no doubt with a substantial slice going straight into the pockets of connected consultants, recruit and support candidates for such non glamorous offices as school board member or dog catcher. Yes, it might take 30 years to ripen, but Texas didn’t turn Republican in a day, either.
Second, give people something to vote for. Things like clean streets, better schools, safer neighborhoods. I’ll bet tax cuts and free trade don’t poll at all in the hood. But better garbage pickup probably does.
For both blacks and Jews it’s always 1932 and ‘Mr. Roosevelt, he gonna save us all ‘ , do they still play ‘Happy Days are here again’ at their convention?’
85
I am from a family of Dems. Blue collar, union members, immigrants.
While I began to vote R many election cycles ago, I never changed my registration until the summer of 2016 (ironically to vote against DT in the primary)
And I still have moments that I regret it. I have no desire to ever vote D, but man, the R’s can sure infuriate the heck out of me and there are times I want no part of them, nor to be affiliated with them.
On a side note, out of five siblings from our Dem family, four have been voting conservative for many years. The only holdout works at a university and is a union member. Us four conservatives appalled my mother and father until their last day. While they lived very conservative lives, they acted like we’d converted to another religion. A religion that they had no justification for us remaining in.
Out of my four kids, they all started conservative but are drifting libertarian. They need a party for a “pox on both their houses.”
(Slight edit: I want NO part of them, nor to be affiliated with them.)
On this point, I strongly recommend: Neo, formerly Neo-neocon, wrote an excellent series on changing political identity, starting at “A mind is a difficult thing to change, Part 1.”
Progressives, like Melville Dewey (who tried simplifying the spelling of his name to Melvil Dui, because he thought people were too stupid to learn how to spell).
I don’t think very many voters vote based upon a reasoned analysis of the issues. In the case of black voters, the Democratic Party has succeeded in selling the notion that it cares more than the Republican Party does about blacks and their needs.
It is both that simple and that complicated.
It does not matter that the programs pushed by Democrats have not worked and will not work. They care more. That is the marketing and it has been effective.
Yes. That is sad. And there is no solid evidence that it is true. A simple outward expression does not make that true. Each of us is entitled to our own view of what government is or should be. I don’t think of blacks and their needs but of blacks and their opportunities. Substitute any other interest group. When I speak about whether groups act in or against their own interests with regard to selecting government leaders, that is what I’m referencing. The Republican Party governing actions have been mostly bad compared to Democrat party governing actions that have been mostly even worse. The binary choice the American system leaves us with every four years is not ideal but it works better than most others I’ve observed.
What do you think of the Walk Away campaign?
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCDb4InP9mRZR9oogD1b2dOQ
And an enormous number of heartfelt testimonial videos here:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCDb4InP9mRZR9oogD1b2dOQ/videos
I don’t agree. It is not about caring. It’s about implementing a communist state.
Bereket – Identity politics has a long history of emotional resonance. Mustn’t some immediate economic self-interest must be there, too? I remember growing up in New York City, Republicans tried to bring together the Jewish/Irish/Italian ethnic groups with a ticket of Lefkowitz, Gilhooley, and Fino. (Great campaign jingle, lost the election.)
Just as past generations of black TV viewers watched shows with black leads in higher percentages than whites, racial identity politics mirrors voting behavior. This might be changing slightly with younger generations who see themselves as post-racial, but I’m not sure that door swings both ways.
There’s also justified self-interest within the “block voting” and “caring” motivations.
Public sector jobs have been a growth “industry” since the late 1960’s. “The era of big government is over” was just another convenient Clinton lie. Look at the DC metro area. Count up the paying jobs for millions, fat pensions at the state and city level, and group identity rooting interest hits the financial scoreboard. Union protections, too. It’s not all false promises. Mutual back-scratching is as old as democracy. Okay, it’s not as upwardly mobile as private sector success, but it’s a significant jump in status and success over what shows up on the other side of that window facing the unemployment or welfare line. Plus there’s a feeling of power in being the one to determine, e.g., who qualifies for a disability check, and who doesn’t deserve one. Even if re-electing the Democrat does the black voter no direct good (and some harm on the tax rate table), it may sustain a family member riding the gravy train. Net: one less person bugging you for money.
I wonder: do black voters without some friend or relative dependent upon the public sector still vote Democrat (as many older Jewish voters do, out of tradition, identity and misplaced loyalty)? Does not having those ties break the hold?
My standing suggestion for evaluating voter data: look beyond people who vote. Traditional non-voters elected the last two Presidents. Obama pulled in formerly non-voting blacks; Trump mobilized alienated working class and otherwise fed-up former abstainers. Maybe the most likely black voters for Republicans to target are those not habituated to voting (D).
I’d also like to see gender, age, and income slices around inner city residents and candidates, compared against and the same metrics for racial segments in suburban, middle class, mixed, and non-mixed areas. How much do racial voting preferences change? Do black and mixed race candidates try more moderate messaging outside the inner city? Is it even possible to gather accurate data on conservative black voters, given the biases of survey methodology? They’re probably as poll-wary as Trump voters. My sense is that there’s a huge ideological gap between all Democrat voters over age 25, and the politicians they elect. Could pro-business primary challenges in Democrat strongholds motivate the party to put forward more pragmatic candidates elsewhere? Successful business leaders in emerging neighborhoods and enterprise zones would be an exciting wellspring for candidates from either party.
With increasing racial and ethnic intermarriage, I’m not sure racial segmentation will be as meaningful a generation from now, certainly in a Latino-majority market like mine, Los Angeles. Here we must manage our expectations. I don’t expect the local Republican to beat out my (wince) representative, Maxine Waters. Maybe he gets a larger share of the vote this time, that’s about it. I do hope that the Democrats will be forced by voters into nominating more moderate, compromise-friendly candidates a generation from now.
I suggest it is not really a disagreement. I suggest that the folks so inclined are deluded into thinking that the communist state cares about them. The point is that it is a emotional decision, not a reasoned one.
This is why I think Marianne Williamson has a shot at beating Trump. She is a policy lightweight but she emotes effectively. She is like a lefty version of Donald Trump. Though to be fair to Trump, I think he understood that things were more difficult in the heartland than other Republicans realized.
Without G-d caring about you, people need the state to care about them. Not even to provide for their physical needs but rather because we yearn for a kind of transcendent love that is better than the love weak humans can provide.
I think that
No disagreement with point number two. However, I would say that progressivism, appeals to the utopian side of human nature. Utopianism is a road to hell but it is still paved with the human desire for goodness, compassion and justice. As Milton Friedman said to leftwinger at one time, “I completely believe that you believe your policies will help poor and working people. But intentions don’t count for much.”
The amount of opprobrium a black man would have to endure for announcing he is a Republican is…well, let’s just say there probably wouldn’t be a coming out party thrown.
But there is still the sanctity of the voting booth.
Especially if the other guy is the loser – that’s a double whammy.
I would add that the right is also unhip.
So when a young person first starts voting – a baby step into adulthood with unhip implications all its own – the last thing they want to do is go full-fogey by voting for a Republican (also, they tend to be net takers in the tax game so they are biased towards handouts).