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Art of the Deal, Baby!
Just last night from Trump’s latest tweet:
“I am pleased to inform you that The United States of America has reached a signed agreement with Mexico. The Tariffs scheduled to be implemented by the U.S. on Monday, against Mexico, are hereby indefinitely suspended. Mexico, in turn, has agreed to take strong measures to……stem the tide of Migration through Mexico, and to our Southern Border. This is being done to greatly reduce, or eliminate, Illegal Immigration coming from Mexico and into the United States. Details of the agreement will be released shortly by the State Department. Thank you!”
Some of the “details” of the agreement from the State Department:
Mexican Enforcement Surge
Mexico will take unprecedented steps to increase enforcement to curb irregular migration, to include the deployment of its National Guard throughout Mexico, giving priority to its southern border. Mexico is also taking decisive action to dismantle human smuggling and trafficking organizations as well as their illicit financial and transportation networks. Additionally, the United States and Mexico commit to strengthen bilateral cooperation, including information sharing and coordinated actions to better protect and secure our common border.
Migrant Protection Protocols
The United States will immediately expand the implementation of the existing Migrant Protection Protocols across its entire Southern Border. This means that those crossing the U.S. Southern Border to seek asylum will be rapidly returned to Mexico where they may await the adjudication of their asylum claims.
In response, Mexico will authorize the entrance of all of those individuals for humanitarian reasons, in compliance with its international obligations, while they await the adjudication of their asylum claims. Mexico will also offer jobs, healthcare and education according to its principles.
The United States commits to work to accelerate the adjudication of asylum claims and to conclude removal proceedings as expeditiously as possible.
Further Actions
Both parties also agree that, in the event the measures adopted do not have the expected results, they will take further actions. Therefore, the United States and Mexico will continue their discussions on the terms of additional understandings to address irregular migrant flows and asylum issues, to be completed and announced within 90 days, if necessary.”
Commentary from Others:
“Mexico successfully avoided the catastrophe of tariffs but will pay a heavy price,” said Duncan Wood, director of the Mexico Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington. “Potentially tens of thousands of refugee claimants will have to wait in Mexico while their claims are processed. Mexico will have to house, employ, educate and provide health care for them. This is a huge commitment.”
Chuck Grassley: “No tariffs on Mexico. Mexico came through”
Steve Scales: “Trump has proven those who doubted him wrong by getting Mexico to step up their efforts to help us secure our southern border,” ..“Tonight’s deal made by President Trump also puts us in a better position to make USMCA a reality.”
My Commentary:
This is obviously a huge win for President Trump. He puts a huge dent into the illegal flow of immigrants into the country while at the same time avoids a trade war with Mexico that could really hurt the American economy. He also avoids a knockdown breakdown fight with the Chamber of Commerce wing of the Republican party.
For Mexico, this whole turn of events may be better than many of your more conventional commentators realize. As a result of the very serious, intractable and likely unresolvable trade war with China, the number one destination for cheap manufacturing leaving China to go elsewhere has got to be Mexico according to some more thoughtful trade commentators. Now that Mexico has cemented further its economic relationship with America, nowhere else has its geographic access, natural resources and abundance of cheap labor to bring to life that less expensive manufacturing that is going to need to move out of China. Of course, American will also get a manufacturing boost where much of the low tech manufacturing would have headed home anyway, but with our bifurcated trade world on many products, you may see part of the product produced here and part in Mexico.
Published in General
Imagine how much better a deal President Trump could have gotten if he didn’t have Mitt Romney-types and Democrats stabbing him in the back.
Trying to remember all the times the Chamber of Commerce threatened suing Obama. Haven’t gotten to my first finger yet. Trump really brings out the true colors in people. POTUS is doing everything he can to stop the calamity at the border. As he follows the laws of Congress, the left follow the tyranny of single judges imposing their will on our country. Something has to give.
Another example of the President successfully using the threat of tariffs for leverage.
Still not tired of winning.
Well I read the post, and keeping strictly to the Trump Twit and the State Department comments, I will only observe the well known adage, “The proof of the pudding is in the eating.”
Especially when indeterminate words and phrases such as:
Or it could be I just didn’t get a good night’s sleep and the coffee (Military Grade Coffee Company) hasn’t kicked in yet.
I don’t have my reading glasses on yet, so I thought your remark was “the left follow the tyranny of single jungles…” which might be true as well.
Yep, most economists don’t like tariffs. But when they’re effectively used as a weapon in the short run, they go away in the long run. What’s not to like?
Oh, I forgot. They don’t like Trump being successful . . .
This was my impression as well. It’s one thing to agree to a deal.. it’s quite another to follow up with concrete action. I’ll save popping the champagne until I see how Mexico actually implements the agreement.
I don’t know that all the details are done, but this appears to be a genuine victory for Trump. And the fact that the tariffs are off for now is a victory for all of us.
Slow on the Uptake: “Well I read the post, and keeping strictly to the Trump Twit and the State Department comments, I will only observe the well known adage, “The proof of the pudding is in the eating.”
Well to borrow from Sundance At CTH:
“The border and migration “agreement” with Mexico is a smart move by President Trump. If you worry that Mexico won’t take any action, well, don’t underestimate the dynamic President Trump just put into play.
Financial investment flows based on expectation, probability and risk management. If you don’t think Mexico will follow-up with their end of the bargain; then you are predicting the tariffs will reappear in 90-days.”
“Overlooked by most of the financial pundits President Trump has pre-positioned risk management actuaries with the basis for their analysis and internal investment advice. In a similar move last year, President Trump suspended tariffs against China based on an agreement (G20 summit in Argentina). After several months and a 150 page initial agreement of principle, China walked away from their prior promises and terms. The tariffs against China were immediately implemented at the previous rate.
That China example with tariffs is now the baseline for all multinational investment to consider as they review their current exposure in Mexico. If any financial investor (bank or corporation) believes Mexico will not adhere to the border/migration agreement, then by extension they are accepting/predicting the Mexican tariffs will take effect in 90-days.
Put another way… President Trump has just given notice to all global business interests to organize their financial affairs toward Mexico within 90 days.”
“Given the less than stellar follow-through on prior promises by Mexico; and given Trump’s absolute follow-through on China; those business interests who don’t trust the Mexican government to deliver on the new promise will now use the 90-day window to re-position their exposure or exit completely.
Those interests who cannot withdraw (Ex. BMW recent $1B investment); or those interests who choose to put their trust in Mexico to deliver (likely against the advice of risk mgmt); will now start a process of engagement with Mexico requesting & demanding promises from the Lopez-Obrador administration to ensure they follow through.
Do not underestimate the power of a few dozen multinational banks and corporations calling Lopez-Obrador and his ministers demanding assurances; concrete assurances; of their follow-through. This puts massive pressure on Mexico to comply with the agreement.”
“This time it isn’t politics; or a broken political promise; no, this time it’s business. A high-stakes multi-billion business issue with multiple downstream consequences. That’s the difference with business-centric President Trump in the White House; he is not a politician.”
“This is what an apex business predator does to his/her economic or financial adversary. All the responsibility for action is on the other party. If Mexico fails, Trump wins. If Mexico succeeds, Trump wins. See how that works?”
The Guardian being Debbie Downer again:
The Trump administration was forced to defend its immigration agreement with Mexico on Sunday, amid reports that key provisions in the deal, forged under the threat of trade tariffs, were mostly old commitments agreed to months ago….
A Trump tweet from Saturday, meanwhile, continued to cause confusion. In an all-caps message, the president claimed Mexico had “agreed to immediately begin buying large quantities of agricultural product from our great patriot farmers!”
But the announced deal did not contain any relevant provision. On CBS’s Face the Nation, Mexican ambassador Martha Bárcena Coqui was asked about the president’s remark. She said she was “absolutely certain that the trade in agricultural goods could increase dramatically in the next few months”. But she did not answer repeated questions about whether there was “any kind of agreement by your government to buy agricultural products”.
Did Mexico agree to this because they are very upset about all the immigrants from Central America in their country and the crime and corruption they bring?
Well, if they got it right, I will be glad to see Trump victorious, and will enjoy the pudding.
Trump can certainly destroy Mexico’s economy, but that would make today’s flood of immigrants look like a trickle. So, if Mexico fails, I doubt that it will look much like a Trump win.
“So, if Mexico fails, I doubt that it will look much like a Trump win.”
Trump could also close the border and really destroy the Mexican economy as well. He could also bring that trickle to a standstill. I think the message is getting out not to mess with Trump, which is what we want.
Then why hasn’t he done it? Why did he need Mexico’s help?
My guess is this was fairly easy for Mexico and a win-win. I can’t imagine they like having their laws flouted either.
A nitpick perhaps, but does Trump understand what the word “hearby” means? I don’t think tweets, even from the POTUS, have the force of law.
This posits the US and Mexico as economic adversaries, which at a country/corporate level they are not.
For example:
From CNN:
However:
So it looks like Trump’s communication was not to Mexico but rather was targeted at the domestic constituency that is concerned about migration. Iow border (in)security theatre. Or am I missing something here?
“So it looks like Trump’s communication was not to Mexico but rather was targeted at the domestic constituency that is concerned about migration. Iow border (in)security theatre. Or am I missing something here?”
Just another NeverTrumper/Demshevik ruse to sell out America. How can you clowns live with yourself?
Parts had been settled before but not all. From even the very partisan LA Times:
“Some administration officials were certain Trump would impose at least the first tranche of 5% tariffs, if only to send a message to Mexico that he was not bluffing this time. But they found Mexican officials eager to strike a deal to prevent that.”
“And they accepted that and they came forward with goodwill to say, ‘Here are some things we can do now.’ Our tone was, ‘That’s good, thank you, but not nearly enough.’”
“Trump had to be convinced that Lopez Obrador’s government would fulfill its promises to deploy thousands of National Guard troops to help with immigration enforcement, especially near Mexico’s southern border with Guatemala, and take other measures to stop migrants from reaching the United States.”
The U.S. side pushed Mexico to agree to being declared a “safe third nation,” which would require arriving Central Americans or other refugees to apply for asylum in Mexico without traveling on to the United States.
Mexico adamantly refused and the Trump administration ultimately gave in, although both sides agreed to continue discussing that and other measures to overhaul asylum policy.
The talks dragged on for 10 hours Friday as the two sides hammered out final wording and two key points.
Both sides recognized the distinct and problematic nature of the current surge in migration because it involves so many families and asylum seekers.
Mexico wanted the agreement to address development needs in Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, where poverty and violence are helping drive the northern exodus. U.S. negotiators were reluctant to agree since Trump recently cut aid to Central America.
Ultimately, the agreement contained a passage decrying humanitarian conditions in the region, without specifying solutions.
The other sticking point was a U.S. demand to expand the number of border crossing points through which U.S. officials can return asylum applicants to Mexico to await the resolution of their cases in U.S. immigration courts, a process that can take months or longer.
The controversial practice, officially known as Migrant Protection Protocols, or MPP, was created this year, and the agreement will expand it, as the U.S. side wanted. That victory may be temporary since the practice has been challenged in U.S. courts, and some judges have indicated it may not be legal.”
“The fine print suggests the deal may not be final, since it states that if Mexico’s actions “do not have the expected results,” additional measures may be taken. It said talks would continue and other steps could be announced within 90 days.”
Yeah.
But Romney is very big on being honorable.
He was my friend, he was faithful and just to me. But Brutus says he was ambitious, and Brutus is an honorable man.
William Shakespeare.
No, it will look like Mexico failed. Trump will then have to take new action, which my guess would be putting soldiers on the borders.
We have a Coast Guard, so why not a militarized Border Guard? I’m not talking about the Border Patrol, which is more of a police force type of agency.
And before you can say “posse comitatus”, let me remind you the Coast Guard is not bound the Act. In addition, the military can already be used to combat drug smuggling (Military Cooperation with Civilian Law Enforcement Agencies Act), so Trump today could direct the Army to seal the border. If you say, “What ifa civilian law enforcement agency doesn’t cooperate?”
The answer is simple. By not cooperating, they’re leaving the military totally in charge.
What makes you think that would be simple? It would certainly be contested, and absent further details I’m not sure which side of the contest I’d support.
Actually there would probably be a thousand law suits first. This country is a mess of sorts. The Democrat politicians believe that the border is not about our country and its citizens. The border is about Trump. They, their media, and their judges will do anything they can to keep Trump from having any success in controlling our border, our country be damned.
Applies to certain “conservatives,” too.
From Edward Lulie at American Greatness:
“Did Friday’s deal solve the border crisis? No, but it’s a big help.
As Breitbart News reported Saturday, “Trump’s deal with the Mexican government likely will allow border officials to end the catch-and-release of Central American migrants.”
“Ending catch-and-release is a huge win for Americans and Trump because it means border officials now have a legal alternative to the catch-and-release rules that normally allow migrants to legally enter the United States if they bring children and claim asylum,” Breitbart’s Neil Munro writes.
Is there any doubt that the Left’s desire for unlimited “asylum” and open borders are nothing more than thinly veiled schemes to fill the voter rolls with illegals (something we’re told never, ever happens)? When you hear Democratic presidential hopefuls advocating for the expansion of “voting rights,” the truth begins to emerge. Mention voter ID and the wails of voter suppression blast like an air raid warning. The Left continues to pretend there is no problem.
In the days to come, the Left is going to get more frantic. This political victory on immigration will likely be ratified by the courts. The Ninth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals last month ruled that the administration’s “Remain in Mexico” may continue even as the challenges to the policy wind through the federal courts.
Now watch carefully as the media tries to deny a big win for Trump. Does the deal solve the illegal immigration problem? No, it doesn’t—Congress still needs to act. But after a series of disappointments for Trump supporters, Friday’s deal looks like very real progress. And it may just be a key for President Trump’s re-election prospects.”
Let’s hope so. If I repeat this outloud, will God listen?
I think it’s already been contested. Hence, the emergency . . .
Ah yes, yet another reason to no longer read newspapers like the Guardian online. Or to buy local newspapers.
I attempted to read the newspaper out of Santa Rosa Calif one year ago, and all that newspaper did was to bash Trump. He had just gotten off the plane where he was about to negotiate with the No Korean dictator, and the Press Democrat stated that Trump had lost any advantage he might have had. I don’t think he had finished even one meeting with Kim Jong-Un when the article went to press. Such blatant dishonest reporting. And that is just normal behavior now, for the nation’s once proud Fourth Estate.
As usual any time Trump takes action. So what?
Believe it or not there is another point of view. From The Bulwark:
“The idea that Donald Trump successfully used the threat of tariffs to force Mexico to agree to an immigration deal is yet another fiction cooked up by the Trump propaganda machine.
“The truth is this: Trump squandered any negotiating leverage he may have had by making an idle threat that everybody knew he couldn’t possibly follow through on.”
https://thebulwark.com/only-the-best-deals-how-trump-got-pantsed-by-mexico/