There Are Nothing But Coincidences

 

I spend a lot of my spare time reading and watching YouTube videos about history.* This week, I came across the strange and sad story of Charles II of Spain, the “Mad” or “Bewitched” King. I went to work that evening and saw a copy of this painting above one of the Doctor’s stations:

Me: “Why is there a picture of Charles the Mad of Spain here?”

Dr. B (A resident, about 12 years old): “That’s a man?”

Dr. I (The senior attending): “Dr. V (another attending) put it up there for some reason. I’m not surprised you knew who it was.”

Of course, I didn’t tell him that I had just learned about Charles that very afternoon.

Conspiracy theorists put great stock the importance of “so-called” coincidences. Their mantra is, “Nothing is a coincidence.” Every “coincidence” is actually evidence of dark forces at work, fraught with meaning and significance.

Of course, it is exactly the opposite that is true. Coincidences occur because of the significance we insert into an event. Every event is very unlikely to occur in the exact manner that it does. It is only when we insert our meaning into what happened that it becomes a coincidence.

Here is my favorite example of this. Suppose I told you that two 73-year-old men were killed on a certain stretch of highway within two hours of each other. You’d probably think that was unfortunate, but it’s not something that rates any further thought. Now, suppose I told you that they were identical twins and the second victim had not been informed of his brother’s demise. Suddenly, the event becomes eerie, almost supernatural.

But, let’s back up. What are the chances of just one person being killed along any stretch of road in any two-hour period? Even on the most dangerous roads in the world, the odds are very small. Every other detail of the event – two victims, separate incidents, both male, the same age – make it more and more unlikely. Nonetheless, it did happen,** and it is only when you find out that they were twins that you see a “true” coincidence. But the fact that they are twins is actually the least amazing part of the event. Twins, especially that age who live near each other, often have similar habits and disabilities, and are more likely to be in the same place than random strangers.

Cops and ER nurses know from long experience that there are nothing but coincidences, and they usually have no significance beyond the war stories they provide.

When I was a rookie police officer, the Albuquerque Police Department did not provide protective screens between the front and back of the patrol cars. This resulted in all sorts of hilarious hijinks.

One evening, an officer made an arrest after a traffic stop. While he was signing the paperwork for the tow truck driver, the arrestee managed to climb into the front seat of the police car and escape on foot. Several other officers, including me, were then called to search for the suspect.

I was checking an apartment complex parking lot when a car drove up to me. The driver said “Officer, can you help me,” and held up his hands which were handcuffed together. I literally pulled him out of the car through the window, and radioed that I had the suspect in custody. Meanwhile, the “offender” was blubbering “what did I do?” After things had calmed down a bit, I actually listened to him. He told me that he had been at a party and one of has friends had handcuffed him as a joke — but didn’t have a key. I called in and got a description of the suspect — 5’7”, thin, Hispanic; obviously not the 6’2”, 220 pound Anglo kid I’d pulled out of the car.*** I dusted him off, apologized, explained the situation, and let him be on his way.****

Then spotted the actual escapee sneaking around the corner of a nearby fast-food joint.

Every part of this story is incredibly improbable, but it happened. None of it was caused by “dark forces,” just an incredible set of circumstances that happened to collide.

One day I was working the intake desk at the ER. An oncologist called and told me he was sending one of his leukemia patients, a 12-year-old male, to be worked up due to a fever. A short time later, I see a kid about 12 in line. He looks a little pale and I ask his parents why he needs to be seen. His Mom tells me he has leukemia and a fever. I say, “Oh, you must be ___________.” The child in line directly behind him says, “No, that’s me.”

Another time, I’m doing triage assessments. I pick up a chart and call “Chris Sandoval,” an eight-year-old male with abdominal pain. After finishing that assessment, I then grab the next chart – Chris Sandoval, eight-year-old male with abdominal pain.*****

So everything is coincidental, and most of it has no significance. I was reminded of this again yesterday. @arahant posted this comment in the PIT:

I replied with this:

Well, it turns out that @exjon had done a post on Edward Hopper the same time. Two in one week — Quelle coincidence!


* In preparation for my third career as a professional pub trivia player.

** In Finland. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/1858721.stm

*** Who knew that we needed any further description than “Dude running around handcuffed?”

**** Sadly still handcuffed. I didn’t have the right sort of key for his cuffs. If you meet a big blonde guy in his fifties with his hands cuffed together, tell him I said “hi.”

***** For obvious reasons, the names, ages, and maybe the sexes of the patients have been changed to protect the innocent.

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  1. Arahant Member
    Arahant
    @Arahant

    And it often occurs right after we learn something, because we’re now attuned to that thing. You might not have even noticed the portrait of inbred Carlos the Deuce had you not just learned about him. It would have just been part of the wall. No big deal. Not worth noticing. But because you knew who he was, it jumped out at you.

    Let’s take another strange coincidence. Carlos up there, in English, is known as Charles II. He had no children due to his physical problems. Charles II of England, Scotland, and Ireland (and France by pretense) also had no legitimate sons to follow him. His wife had three miscarriages, but no live births. Charles II had about fourteen children by various mistresses, but none could follow him as king/queen. Maybe there is something about the second ruler named Charles for a country? It’s a great coincidence until one starts checking other countries. Charles II of Naples had fourteen children, including the next King of Naples. Charles II of Navarre had seven kids, including the next king. Etc. It’s only a coincidence due to too few data points.

    • #1
  2. KentForrester Coolidge
    KentForrester
    @KentForrester

    1. Everything happens for a reason. (Buddhists and some Christians)

    2. Everything that looks like it has a reason is mere coincidence.  (cynics and atheists)

    3. Some things happen for a reason. (mainstream Christians and various optimists)

    4.  It’s possible, but not likely, that some things happen for a reason, (agnostics)

    6. Listen, bud, everything happens for a reason, and I’ll burn your house down if you don’t agree. (fanatics)

    I love metaphysics, don’t you?

    • #2
  3. Songwriter Inactive
    Songwriter
    @user_19450

    What a coincidence – that everything is a coincidence!

    • #3
  4. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    JosePluma: He told me that he had been at a party and one of has friends had handcuffed him as a joke-but didn’t have a key.

    Now there is a guy to watch. Not the handcuffee, but his friend. Having the key in your possession should be a non-trivial consideration.

    • #4
  5. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    Mr Bond, they have a saying in Chicago: “Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it’s enemy action.”

    — Ian Fleming, Goldfinger

    • #5
  6. Matt Balzer, Imperialist Claw Member
    Matt Balzer, Imperialist Claw
    @MattBalzer

    Percival (View Comment):

    Mr Bond, they have a saying in Chicago: “Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it’s enemy action.”

    — Ian Fleming, Goldfinger

    Well, this is the second time in two days you’ve gotten ahead of me with a response to a comment. I hope it’s just a coincidence because I already have enough enemies.

    • #6
  7. Hoyacon Member
    Hoyacon
    @Hoyacon

    I know this is an aside, but what’s up with all of these mad kings?  They even made a movie about the madness of King George.  Ludwig of Bavaria.  This Charles guy.  They’re kings. That’s a good gig. What do they have to be mad about?

    • #7
  8. Amy Schley Coolidge
    Amy Schley
    @AmySchley

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    I know this is an aside, but what’s up with all of these mad kings? They even made a movie about the madness of King George. Ludwig of Bavaria. This Charles guy. They’re kings. What do they have to be mad about?

    Well, for starters, the fact that people want to steal their jobs …

    • #8
  9. Hank Rhody, Drunk on Power Contributor
    Hank Rhody, Drunk on Power
    @HankRhody

    Matt Balzer, Imperialist Claw (View Comment):

    Percival (View Comment):

    Mr Bond, they have a saying in Chicago: “Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it’s enemy action.”

    — Ian Fleming, Goldfinger

    Well, this is the second time in two days you’ve gotten ahead of me with a response to a comment. I hope it’s just a coincidence because I already have enough enemies.

    Guess that makes me Enemy Action.

    Sweet.

    • #9
  10. Arahant Member
    Arahant
    @Arahant

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    I know this is an aside, but what’s up with all of these mad kings? They even made a movie about the madness of King George. Ludwig of Bavaria. This Charles guy. They’re kings. That’s a good gig. What do they have to be mad about?

    In many cases, it is literal mental health problems. In the case of King George III of the UK, I have seen various diagnoses, including manic-depression and porphyria. In the case of Charles II of Spain, his problems were caused by severe inbreeding. Really, look at his family tree. About the only way to find worse was in Egypt, like Cleopatra VII. Go back six generations and she only had two ancestors. And she married both her brothers. Ludwig of Bavaria was a little more questionable. It could have been that the usurpers said he was mad as an excuse for their usurpations. Any others you want to know about?

    • #10
  11. Hoyacon Member
    Hoyacon
    @Hoyacon

    Amy Schley (View Comment):

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    I know this is an aside, but what’s up with all of these mad kings? They even made a movie about the madness of King George. Ludwig of Bavaria. This Charles guy. They’re kings. What do they have to be mad about?

    Well, for starters, the fact that people want to steal their jobs …

    Outsourcing!

     

    • #11
  12. Hoyacon Member
    Hoyacon
    @Hoyacon

    Arahant (View Comment):

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    I know this is an aside, but what’s up with all of these mad kings? They even made a movie about the madness of King George. Ludwig of Bavaria. This Charles guy. They’re kings. That’s a good gig. What do they have to be mad about?

    In many cases, it is literal mental health problems. In the case of King George III of the UK, I have seen various diagnoses, including manic-depression and porphyria. In the case of Charles II of Spain, his problems were caused by severe inbreeding. Really, look at his family tree. About the only way to find worse was in Egypt, like Cleopatra VII. Go back six generations and she only had two ancestors. And she married both her brothers. Ludwig of Bavaria was a little more questionable. It could have been that the usurpers said he was mad as an excuse for their usurpations. Any others you want to know about?

    Maybe Ludwig was mad because he knew he’d be the subject of murder conspiracy theories instead of being remembered for patronizing Wagner.  I mean, without him, there might not have been a “napalm in the morning” scene in Apocalypse Now.

     

    • #12
  13. RushBabe49 Thatcher
    RushBabe49
    @RushBabe49

    How about this coincidence? At the bottom of a page on a news site, there was a row of standard “clickbait” stories, and that same picture of the Spanish king, with the title “Royals with inbreeding maladies”, or something like that. The Habsburgs spread all sorts of genetic defects over Europe with their many royal marriages.

    • #13
  14. Arahant Member
    Arahant
    @Arahant

    RushBabe49 (View Comment):
    The Habsburgs spread all sorts of genetic defects over Europe with their many royal marriages.

    It wasn’t so bad when they were breeding with other families, though.

    • #14
  15. Steve C. Member
    Steve C.
    @user_531302

    My favorite coincidence story.

    Two identical Chrysler LeBarons collide on a road in Virginia. Their VINs were sequential, having been manufactured consecutively on the same Chrysler assembly line. USAA insured both drivers.

     

    • #15
  16. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    Arahant (View Comment):

    RushBabe49 (View Comment):
    The Habsburgs spread all sorts of genetic defects over Europe with their many royal marriages.

    It wasn’t so bad when they were breeding with other families, though.

    Chuckie dying without issue didn’t just polish off the Spanish Hapsburgs, though. He tried to make Philip of Anjou his successor. Phil’s grandfather was Louis XIV, King of France. This proceeded to honk off the rest of Europe and led to fourteen years of war on three continents. At the end of all that, a certain Earl of Marlborough got bumped up to Duke, and Phil got the gig, but he had to renounce the throne of France for himself and his descendants.

    So, “not so bad” is relative.

    • #16
  17. Arahant Member
    Arahant
    @Arahant

    Percival (View Comment):
    So, “not so bad” is relative.

    Hey, gotta have hobbies, and succession wars were theirs. War of Spanish Succession. War of Austrian Succession. War of Bavarian Succession. Etc.

    • #17
  18. Arahant Member
    Arahant
    @Arahant

    (Not that the English were any better. Norman Conquest was a war of English succession. War of the Roses, same same. Could say the Williamite Wars were also the same.)

    • #18
  19. SkipSul Inactive
    SkipSul
    @skipsul

    Percival (View Comment):

    Arahant (View Comment):

    RushBabe49 (View Comment):
    The Habsburgs spread all sorts of genetic defects over Europe with their many royal marriages.

    It wasn’t so bad when they were breeding with other families, though.

    Chuckie dying without issue didn’t just polish off the Spanish Hapsburgs, though. He tried to make Philip of Anjou his successor. Phil’s grandfather was Louis XIV, King of France. This proceeded to honk off the rest of Europe and led to fourteen years of war on three continents. At the end of all that, a certain Earl of Marlborough got bumped up to Duke, and Phil got the gig, but he had to renounce the throne of France for himself and his descendants.

    So, “not so bad” is relative.

    And relatives are partly the problem here anyway.

    • #19
  20. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    SkipSul (View Comment):

    Percival (View Comment):

    Arahant (View Comment):

    RushBabe49 (View Comment):
    The Habsburgs spread all sorts of genetic defects over Europe with their many royal marriages.

    It wasn’t so bad when they were breeding with other families, though.

    Chuckie dying without issue didn’t just polish off the Spanish Hapsburgs, though. He tried to make Philip of Anjou his successor. Phil’s grandfather was Louis XIV, King of France. This proceeded to honk off the rest of Europe and led to fourteen years of war on three continents. At the end of all that, a certain Earl of Marlborough got bumped up to Duke, and Phil got the gig, but he had to renounce the throne of France for himself and his descendants.

    So, “not so bad” is relative.

    And relatives are partly the problem here anyway.

    • #20
  21. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    JosePluma: For obvious reasons, the names, ages, and maybe the sexes of the patients have been changed to protect the innocent.

    Sex changes (gender reassignments) are big now. 

    • #21
  22. Hank Rhody, Drunk on Power Contributor
    Hank Rhody, Drunk on Power
    @HankRhody

    RushBabe49 (View Comment):

    How about this coincidence? At the bottom of a page on a news site, there was a row of standard “clickbait” stories, and that same picture of the Spanish king, with the title “Royals with inbreeding maladies”, or something like that. The Habsburgs spread all sorts of genetic defects over Europe with their many royal marriages.

    That one is clearly ‘enemy action’. Lousy internet stalker companies.

    • #22
  23. Suspira Member
    Suspira
    @Suspira

    Amy Schley (View Comment):

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    I know this is an aside, but what’s up with all of these mad kings? They even made a movie about the madness of King George. Ludwig of Bavaria. This Charles guy. They’re kings. What do they have to be mad about?

    Well, for starters, the fact that people want to steal their jobs …

    After reading an overview history of Scotland, I concluded being born with some connection to royalty was a curse. Their lives were in danger if there was even a slight chance they could make a claim to the throne.

    • #23
  24. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    Percival (View Comment):

    Mr Bond, they have a saying in Chicago: “Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it’s enemy action.”

    — Ian Fleming, Goldfinger

    My other favorite Bond novel sayings and quotes:

    “You only live twice.  Once when you are born, and once when you look death in the face.”  I’m sure the Ricochetti can figure out which novel it’s from . . .

    and this one:

    Bond:  Do you expect me to talk?

    Goldfinger.  No, Mr. Bond.  I expect you to die.

    • #24
  25. Amy Schley Coolidge
    Amy Schley
    @AmySchley

    Stad (View Comment):

    Percival (View Comment):

    Mr Bond, they have a saying in Chicago: “Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it’s enemy action.”

    — Ian Fleming, Goldfinger

    My other favorite Bond novel sayings and quotes:

    “You only live twice. Once when you are born, and once when you look death in the face.” I’m sure the Ricochetti can figure out which novel it’s from . . .

    and this one:

    Bond: Do you expect me to talk?

    Goldfinger. No, Mr. Bond. I expect you to die.

    • #25
  26. Misthiocracy secretly Member
    Misthiocracy secretly
    @Misthiocracy

    KentForrester (View Comment):

    1. Everything happens for a reason. (Buddhists and some Christians)

    2. Everything that looks like it has a reason is mere coincidence. (cynics and atheists)

    3. Some things happen for a reason. (mainstream Christians and various optimists)

    4. It’s possible, but not likely, that some things happen for a reason, (agnostics)

    6. Listen, bud, everything happens for a reason, and I’ll burn your house down if you don’t agree. (fanatics)

    I love metaphysics, don’t you?

    7. Everything happens for reasons, but the reasons are so numerous and the causal relationships are so complex that they are virtually indistinguishable from random chance at a fundamental level.  These reasons can be estimated, modeled, and simulated, but never replicated or predicted with exact precision. (postmodern realist)

    • #26
  27. Shane McGuire Member
    Shane McGuire
    @ShaneMcGuire

    I’m on vacation, and taking a little mid-vacation “break” by hopping on Ricochet. My daughter’s in the room with me watching “The Incredibles.” Coincidence?

    • #27
  28. Brian Wolf Inactive
    Brian Wolf
    @BrianWolf

    Arahant (View Comment):

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    I know this is an aside, but what’s up with all of these mad kings? They even made a movie about the madness of King George. Ludwig of Bavaria. This Charles guy. They’re kings. That’s a good gig. What do they have to be mad about?

    In many cases, it is literal mental health problems. In the case of King George III of the UK, I have seen various diagnoses, including manic-depression and porphyria. In the case of Charles II of Spain, his problems were caused by severe inbreeding. Really, look at his family tree. About the only way to find worse was in Egypt, like Cleopatra VII. Go back six generations and she only had two ancestors. And she married both her brothers. Ludwig of Bavaria was a little more questionable. It could have been that the usurpers said he was mad as an excuse for their usurpations. Any others you want to know about?

    I read a very interesting article that the Ptolemies of Egypt had functioning children like Cleopatra because with incest if you let all the sick children die without reproducing you eliminate the genetic problems with incyest you can still have happy children.  Once a deformity gets into the system and it is reproduced the problems compound and the problems grow.  

    The Ptolemies of Egypt even with their weatlh did not have the ability or desire to save sick or deformed children therefore Cleopatra VII was healthy as were her brothers.

    I am not enough of scientist to know if that theory really holds water but in my lay ignorance it seemed plausible to me.

    Finally I think that was a key difference between the Royal houses of Europe and especially the Hapburgs and the Ptolemies of Egypt, the Hapsburgs were better able to keep their children alive and therefore bred more flaws into their future children.

    • #28
  29. iWe Coolidge
    iWe
    @iWe

    Whether “Coincidence is G-d’s way of keeping His anonymity” or not, the fact that people believe in G-d (or coincidences) is itself very important indeed.

    We often get things backward. The conclusion, that coincidences are just statistical outcomes, is an observation, nothing more. After all, if a person chooses to see a coincidence as a divine call to action, then the course of human history can (and has been!) changed as a result. 

    Once again, belief and worldview trumps any reasoned argument. 

    • #29
  30. Arahant Member
    Arahant
    @Arahant

    Shane McGuire (View Comment):

    I’m on vacation, and taking a little mid-vacation “break” by hopping on Ricochet. My daughter’s in the room with me watching “The Incredibles.” Coincidence?

    • #30
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