The End of May

 

Who says voting never changes anything? Thrice in the last three years have the people of Great Britain and Northern Ireland gone to the polls to cast their ballots. Twice in the last three years has the Prime Minister resigned the next morning, in the latter case before the results have even been announced.

Her voice cracking with emotion as she delivered her speech to the assembled press in Downing Street, Theresa May announced that she would be stepping down as the leader of her party. She will continue to serve as Prime Minister until her party elects a successor, probably sometime in July.

Mrs. May will, therefore, greet President Trump on his state visit to commemorate the seventy-fifth anniversary of D-Day. After that, the Conservative Party will hope to speed up the process of electing a new leader, reasoning that the country will not tolerate a long campaign only culminating at the party conference in the autumn. Others will just want her gone before she does any more ‘damage’ to the UK or her party.

The failure to leave the European Union on March 29th has seen a drastic fall in support for the Conservatives, falling in the polls from the high thirties to under ten percent. With Parliament having rejected her Brexit ‘deal’ three times, Mrs. May’s speech introducing the Bill to implement it anyway was the final straw. The Cabinet, despite having agreed to her approach, watched the reaction and claimed she had gone beyond their mandate. One resigned, her former rival for the leadership no less. With the backbenches in open revolt and the chair of their 1922 committee offering the glass of whiskey and the revolver, Mrs May finally submitted to the inevitable failure of all political careers.

The early favourite to replace her is Boris Johnson. The impact of Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party has ‘marmalised’ the Conservative vote and nervous Tory MPs are recalling the Canadian election of 1993, when Kim Campbell’s Progressive Conservatives went from governing to just three seats. Many are wondering if Boris’ populist touch is the only way to save them. Farage himself states that the decision to finally back Mrs. May’s ‘surrender treaty’ on the third attempt marks Boris as untrustworthy. A lot of his new Brexit Party supporters agree with him. Nor will all in the Conservative Party agree that this is a May 1940 moment, or that Boris is the reincarnation of his hero, Winston Churchill.

An anyone but Boris campaign has been active since David Cameron resigned back in 2016. They sabotaged his time as Foreign Secretary, with hostile junior Ministers and civil servants briefing against him. The media too is filled with his enemies from his time as a journalist and editor of The Spectator; some are jealous, others consider him a fool.

Yet the Remainer wing of the Conservative Party is unlikely to see their candidate elected by the largely Leave voting membership. Whoever succeeds, if the Tories are to survive they cannot continue with Mrs. May’s policies. Kim Campbell had been the leader only six months before that seismic election in 1993, if Britain’s progressive conservatives want to avoid emulating their Canadian forebears they will have to both deliver Brexit and be Conservatives again. Failure to do both and Nigel Farage will be eyeing his third Prime Ministerial scalp.

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  1. WI Con Member
    WI Con
    @WICon

    There’s a lesson here for the GOP.

    • #1
  2. She Member
    She
    @She

    Well.  As far as I can see, nothing in her tenure so became her as the leaving it.  What an absolute waste of two years.  My sister (in Scotland) is hopping mad.

    • #2
  3. Dr. Bastiat Member
    Dr. Bastiat
    @drbastiat

    So, is Great Britain leaving the EU?

    • #3
  4. Hang On Member
    Hang On
    @HangOn

    And enter Donald Trump. There are two ways he can be constructive for Great Britain, especially if Boris Johnson is going to be the new PM.

    First, Trump and Boris Johnson can hold a joint press conference in which Johnson announces that he is willing to re-negotiate the Withdrawal Agreement, but that Britain will definitively be leaving the EU on November 1st. At the same press conference, Trump can announce that on November 1st he will be imposing 25% tariffs on EU products unless American agricultural products can be imported tariff-free into the EU.

    Secondly, Trump can seek to make peace between Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage.

    And if it had only been June 6th instead of the 7th. May Day and D Day on the same day.

    • #4
  5. Valiuth Member
    Valiuth
    @Valiuth

    Ha! I see what you did there. Five pun points to you. 

    So they can avoid a general election? Cause I thought May leaving triggered one. 

    Who do the DUP want as PM? Cause without them Tories dont have a majority. 

    • #5
  6. Mr Nick Inactive
    Mr Nick
    @MrNick

    Dr. Bastiat (View Comment):

    So, is Great Britain leaving the EU?

    That’s a whole other essay.

    Short answer is yes.

    When?

    Hmm…..

     

    • #6
  7. SkipSul Inactive
    SkipSul
    @skipsul

    Didn’t Maggie Thatcher resign on the day she announced her resignation?  What’s with the long and drawn out ceremony?  What point does it serve, except for May to attempt to designate a successor?

    It is high time for me to put an end to your sitting in this place,

    which you have dishonored by your contempt of all virtue, and defiled by your practice of every vice.

    Ye are a factious crew, and enemies to all good government.

    Ye are a pack of mercenary wretches, and would like Esau sell your country for a mess of pottage, and like Judas betray your God for a few pieces of money.

    Is there a single virtue now remaining amongst you? Is there one vice you do not possess?

    Ye have no more religion than my horse. Gold is your God. Which of you have not bartered your conscience for bribes? Is there a man amongst you that has the least care for the good of the Commonwealth?

    Ye sordid prostitutes have you not defiled this sacred place, and turned the Lord’s temple into a den of thieves, by your immoral principles and wicked practices?

    Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation. You were deputed here by the people to get grievances redressed, are yourselves become the greatest grievance. 

    Your country therefore calls upon me to cleanse this Augean stable, by putting a final period to your iniquitous proceedings in this House; and which by God’s help, and the strength he has given me, I am now come to do.

    I command ye therefore, upon the peril of your lives, to depart immediately out of this place.

    Go, get you out! Make haste! Ye venal slaves be gone! So! Take away that shining bauble there, and lock up the doors. 

    In the name of God, go!

    http://www.emersonkent.com/speeches/dismissal_of_the_rump_parliament.htm

    • #7
  8. Mr Nick Inactive
    Mr Nick
    @MrNick

    Valiuth (View Comment):

    Ha! I see what you did there. Five pun points to you.

    So they can avoid a general election? Cause I thought May leaving triggered one.

    Who do the DUP want as PM? Cause without them Tories dont have a majority.

    May’s leaving doesn’t trigger an election. A no confidence vote in the government leads to that. Too many MPs, from across the house, would lose their seats at the moment so we are probably safe for now. It is possible that if a new PM goes for ‘no-deal’ then enough Conservative Remainers might vote their own gov. down. They call us Leavers extremists but there is a lot of projection going on there.

    DUP are close to the Brexiteers and Boris spoke at their party conference. Their priorities are the Union with Great Britain and Brexit, in that order. They will most likely back a Leaver who commits to the whole of the UK leaving, i.e. no backstop. Not that they get to vote.

    Good point though. Tories can’t govern without some sort of agreement with the DUP and the current one has almost run out. Of course a remainer could split the party and govern with Labour, but Corbyn would have to be ousted first or Labour split. Anything is possible I suppose.

    • #8
  9. Mr Nick Inactive
    Mr Nick
    @MrNick

    SkipSul (View Comment):

    Didn’t Maggie Thatcher resign on the day she announced her resignation? What’s with the long and drawn out ceremony? What point does it serve, except for May to attempt to designate a successor?

    It is high time for me to put an end to your sitting in this place,

    which you have dishonored by your contempt of all virtue, and defiled by your practice of every vice.

    Ye are a factious crew, and enemies to all good government.

    Ye are a pack of mercenary wretches, and would like Esau sell your country for a mess of pottage, and like Judas betray your God for a few pieces of money.

    Is there a single virtue now remaining amongst you? Is there one vice you do not possess?

    Ye have no more religion than my horse. Gold is your God. Which of you have not bartered your conscience for bribes? Is there a man amongst you that has the least care for the good of the Commonwealth?

    Ye sordid prostitutes have you not defiled this sacred place, and turned the Lord’s temple into a den of thieves, by your immoral principles and wicked practices?

    Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation. You were deputed here by the people to get grievances redressed, are yourselves become the greatest grievance.

    Your country therefore calls upon me to cleanse this Augean stable, by putting a final period to your iniquitous proceedings in this House; and which by God’s help, and the strength he has given me, I am now come to do.

    I command ye therefore, upon the peril of your lives, to depart immediately out of this place.

    Go, get you out! Make haste! Ye venal slaves be gone! So! Take away that shining bauble there, and lock up the doors.

    In the name of God, go!

    http://www.emersonkent.com/speeches/dismissal_of_the_rump_parliament.htm

    Rules have changed since then. In Maggie’s day it used to be just the MPs so you would get leadership challenges and ‘stalking horses’. But you are right, May’s behaviour does not compare well to Lady Thatcher’s.

    • #9
  10. James Gawron Inactive
    James Gawron
    @JamesGawron

    Nicky,

    Not that I’m looking over my shoulder or anything but until they move her stuff out of 10 Downing Street I’ll still be a little nervous. Obviously, it took the Brexit Party dynamite to blast through the May log jam. Nigel should keep the pressure on until Britain is out of the EU.

    Regards,

    Jim

     

    • #10
  11. Mr Nick Inactive
    Mr Nick
    @MrNick

    James Gawron (View Comment):

    Nicky,

    Not that I’m looking over my shoulder or anything but until they move her stuff out of 10 Downing Street I’ll still be a little nervous. Obviously, it took the Brexit Party dynamite to blast through the May log jam. Nigel should keep the pressure on until Britain is out of the EU.

    Regards,

    Jim

     

    Nigel’s tweet:

    It is difficult not to feel for Mrs May, but politically she misjudged the mood of the country and her party. Two Tory leaders have now gone whose instincts were pro-EU. Either the party learns that lesson or it dies.

    Quite classy I reckon. Although I very much doubt he wrote it….

    Now the campaign is over he will be able to resume his media career but I don’t expect him to sit back at all.

     

    • #11
  12. James Gawron Inactive
    James Gawron
    @JamesGawron

    Nicky,

    Nicky,

    Here’s an interesting commentary by Jacob Rees-Mogg.

    Rees-Mogg Warns of Parliamentary ‘Stitch-up’ in Appointing New PM

    After a number of voting rounds, Fox and Gove were knocked out and Crabb resigned, leaving May and Leadsom as the two candidates to appear on party members’ ballots.

    However, Mrs Leadsom pulled out leaving Mrs May the last man standing, automatically resulting in her becoming party leader and prime minister, cutting party members out of the decision process entirely.

    The Tory membership is, however, in the majority Brexit-supporting with the last poll on the subject in January finding party members backed leaving with no deal over May’s deal over two to one.

    This time the whole Tory membership must have a vote. They are 2 to 1 for leaving on WTO terms over May’s deal. That should produce a result that would bring the Tories back to their roots. If they don’t do it now then Britain may need to get used to the idea of Nigel Farage as Prime Minister and the Tory Party splintering into a uselessness.

    Regards,

    Jim

     

    • #12
  13. TBA Coolidge
    TBA
    @RobtGilsdorf

    Dr. Bastiat (View Comment):

    So, is Great Britain leaving the EU?

    Yes, and will be doing so for the foreseeable future. 

    • #13
  14. Mr Nick Inactive
    Mr Nick
    @MrNick

    James Gawron (View Comment):

    Nicky,

    Nicky,

    Here’s an interesting commentary by Jacob Rees-Mogg.

    Rees-Mogg Warns of Parliamentary ‘Stitch-up’ in Appointing New PM

    After a number of voting rounds, Fox and Gove were knocked out and Crabb resigned, leaving May and Leadsom as the two candidates to appear on party members’ ballots.

    However, Mrs Leadsom pulled out leaving Mrs May the last man standing, automatically resulting in her becoming party leader and prime minister, cutting party members out of the decision process entirely.

    The Tory membership is, however, in the majority Brexit-supporting with the last poll on the subject in January finding party members backed leaving with no deal over May’s deal over two to one.

    This time the whole Tory membership must have a vote. They are 2 to 1 for leaving on WTO terms over May’s deal. That should produce a result that would bring the Tories back to their roots. If they don’t do it now then Britain may need to get used to the idea of Nigel Farage as Prime Minister and the Tory Party splintering into a uselessness.

    Regards,

    Jim

     

    The Sky News journalist I mentioned in my previous piece covering the Brexit Party rally has a short video about the campaign. He is not sympathetic, as seen in the q & a with Farage at the end, but he is honest. Funnily enough he reaches the same conclusion as you.

    The question that is yet to be answered is has the Tory high command got the message? Boris was making a speech in Switzerland yesterday where he stated the following:

    We will leave the EU on October 31, deal or no deal. The way to get a good deal is to prepare for no deal. To get things done you need to be prepared to walk away.

    Now I think this is what you Americans might call Business Negotiations 101. I know it is over here because it is exactly how it is framed by the Judge Business School of Cambridge University. They even used Mrs May’s original negotiating strategy, when this was the case, as a template for teaching. Walking away with no deal is your BATNA, or Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement.

    So Boris was simply stating an obvious principle. Yet even this has attracted criticism from his colleagues, suggesting they still just don’t get it.

    • #14
  15. Barfly Member
    Barfly
    @Barfly

    WI Con (View Comment):

    There’s a lesson here for the GOP.

    Well, there might be if the GOP could read. But the “lesson” analogy doesn’t work for social groups – they don’t “learn” although they do modify. I think over the next six years the Republican party will incorporate and mainstream a strong populist strain that will last for decades, and shed many of its parasitic elements. Flake and Corker were the first, but even well-coiffed weathervanes like Good Mitt Romney will be at risk as the tide turns. Sorry about the mixed analogies.

    • #15
  16. Barfly Member
    Barfly
    @Barfly

    Theresa May is a betrayer; that is her core skill. That has been obvious since her elevation. It’s been instructive to watch how her (monotonically increasingly) lies have been eagerly received by the UK establishment and their press. Much less so, with regard to their electorate – just like US.

    • #16
  17. Titus Techera Contributor
    Titus Techera
    @TitusTechera

    TBA (View Comment):

    Dr. Bastiat (View Comment):

    So, is Great Britain leaving the EU?

    Yes, and will be doing so for the foreseeable future.

    The Long Goodbye!

    • #17
  18. She Member
    She
    @She

    • #18
  19. Hang On Member
    Hang On
    @HangOn

    She (View Comment):

    I didn’t know my dog was part cat.

    • #19
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