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Ten Days To Go….
There are less than nine days now until Britain exits the European Union. Many might argue with that as today the Prime Minister will send a letter to the EU requesting an extension to the two-year article 50 countdown, due to expire on March 29. Brexiteers are outraged. However, the events of the last few days should give the most adamant of those Leave voters hope.
After the three votes last week to reject the Withdrawal Agreement for a second time, to also rule out leaving with ‘no-deal’, and to request an extension, nothing appeared to have changed. Mrs May continued her strategy of pressing on for a third vote on what effectively is a treaty that leaves the UK as bound into the EU as ever. The grind was back on with the government line being amplified by even the most Eurosceptic organs of the media.
Over the weekend several high-profile Leavers, including former Cabinet Minister Esther McVey who had resigned in protest only last December, very publically switched to reluctant support of Mrs May’s Withdrawal Agreement. The politico who headed the official Leave campaign, Matthew Elliott, and other prominent activists, urged all resistance to finally give up or risk losing everything.
Pressured to take the political divorce but accept the loss of economic freedoms, Jacob Rees-Mogg, a man whose career has both been made by the Brexit vote and depends on it succeeding, indicated he would back the PM. Of all the recognisable campaigners only Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage were left standing, poor Melanie Phillips was losing her mind…
Some of this posturing might even have been genuine.
On Monday, the Speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow, did what everyone knew he would do and announced a third vote would be out of order for the remaining time in the parliamentary session. His statement to the house might have surprised the front bench, but only because they did not expect him to be so brazen about it. The government had been planning to ‘pull’ the vote this week in any event, it had not actually been tabled.
For all the noise, they had not got the critical backing of their DUP allies and hence the block of MPs who had vowed not to abandon them either, let alone the thirty-odd ‘die-hards’ who would have to be replaced with votes from Labour MPs. The Speaker’s announcement was therefore no more than political theatre. If Mrs May has the votes for her Agreement, she has the votes to overrule the Speaker, such is the nature of a living constitution.
However, the Speaker’s actions did change the dynamics of the situation. Mrs May’s strategy has been to kill off all other options apart from her deal. The Speaker’s announcement, and particularly that he would only allow it with substantial changes, opens the door for all and sundry to push for their preferred outcome. No-dealers, new-dealers, closer-aligners, second referendum pushers, and no-brexiters were all cheered, Tory Leavers were reported to be whistling the theme tune from The Great Escape… As a wag in Brussels is reported to have said, the House of Commons has a better scriptwriter than House of Cards.
The Prime Minister was therefore on the back foot when she convened her Cabinet on Tuesday morning to decide on how long an extension to ask for. The reports leaking out, with shocking alacrity, were of a deeply divided council with several members indicating resignations would follow and the party would split. If the extension were short then the Brexit ‘ultras’ on the backbenches would still hold out for ‘no-deal’, if long then Mrs May’s premiership would be ‘burnt toast’. The decision was, unsurprisingly, delayed.
Yet this morning the Brexiteers are defiant after it was announced that Mrs May will ask for a short extension of three months. That is the very act most likely to incense the EU as the Member States meet this Thursday for a regular summit. The EU Commission risk losing control of the situation and will try and park the decision, proposing another extraordinary summit next week. Yet the French are threatening a veto and Farage seems confident one of his continental Eurosceptic allies might do so too. Those Member States who wish to keep the UK close do not want to be bounced into a decision, but any talk of reopening the negotiations could lead to fireworks. Whatever is decided, Mrs May faces a veritable götterdämmerung upon her return to Parliament, with every faction vying to achieve their aims.
She has to survive today first, with Prime Minister’s Questions threatening to turn into a snake pit and probably a special debate to follow; and with this Speaker, escaping that is not as elementary as it might otherwise have been. Conservative MPs, facing the calamity engulfing their party, are considering ambushing her at the meeting of the 1922 Committee this evening. Meanwhile, Cabinet Minister’s sharpen their knives and consider their options.
Less than ten days to go and Mrs May is clinging on, hoping against hope that her deal is not dead. Her options are limited and her decisions are crucial for both the future of her country, the survival of her government, and the electability of her party. As nobody, even now, can divine her true intentions, anything could happen. Yet a clean break on 29th March is still the default.
Published in General
I will pray for a no-deal Brexit. The EU must be destroyed.
It would be nice to see Mrs. May rolling her trunk out of #10 Downing St. as well.
But I hope you’re right and that a British exit puts an end to that nightmare of Orwell’s. Frau Stasi has done all she could to poison the wells and salt the fields. Without the UK it’ll fall apart quickly. Imagine a land governed by the worst of Germany and France.
The sole reason the EU exists is that Europe cursed itself with a surfeit of useless hollow chested men, perpetual second place finishers in the ongoing Upper Class Twit Games. Perhaps they’re fit only to be ruled by Mrs. Potato Body, but we’ll see.
It’s an amazing situation. Apparently, either Britain leaves the EU without a plan or the EU rules Britain without an end.
Like the US, the British people seem cursed with division against themselves.
I was listening to something lately where the EU was described as Germany’s empire — at long last, and without a shot fired. Well, except for the occasional Islamist-inspired massacre to keep the natives restless and looking to Brussels to solve all their problems.
With the Speaker’s decision, and the EU boxing May in by saying they will not do an unconditional extension, it seems we’re poised for a no-deal Brexit. I’m surprised the EU is holding their ground because I think there’s a risk that their leverage weakens over time in a no-deal Brexit scenario. When the sky doesn’t fall, as predicted, the situation will start to look very different.
The most entertaining quip said on Ricochet recently.
He who has the Gold rules.
Yes, very much so. One of the things I’ve seen in polling that reminded of my days in poli.sic was a Condorcet paradox set of polls, where small but steady majorities preferred, in turn, Remain to No Deal, No Deal to May’s Deal, & May’s Deal to Remain. I hope I got the order right–anyway, it was the paradox…
What I see of polls now seems sensible. A plurality of about 48% is committed to Remain. There’s neither a majority for Brexit nor any chance of assembling one. This was always going to be very difficult politically & it’s just not got any easier with incompetent politicians.
Nicky,
As I have always said, you can’t make a good deal with a bad guy and the EU is a bad guy.
’Finalise Preparations for No Deal,’ Barnier Tells UK, as May Asks for Brexit Delay
If Mrs. May actually ever believed she could deal with the EU and not get stabbed in the back it is a thrilling tale of naivete. However, if she believed she could extort the British people and parliament into accepting EU fealty then she is just a traitor who miscalculated.
I don’t care at this point which it is. I think it’s time for WTO and GO!
Regards,
Jim
In the past, I always thought Monty Python could never be topped as British satire… but that was before Parliament’s attempts to deal with Brexit.
A great post. I’ve been so disappointed in Mrs. May.
Update:
More bad news from the EU.
Eurocrat Tusk: ‘Short’ Brexit Delay Possible If Commons Passes May’s Deal
Watch Live: UK Prime Minister May Addresses Nation on Brexit Crisis
If they won’t take May’s deal and they won’t and they don’t have a deal of their own and they don’t then the EU will kick Britain out of the EU on March 29. Works for me.
Regards,
Jim
While waiting for the next from @mrnick or @jamesgawron, or any other knowledgeable R, I can recommend this
https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-military-steps-up-preparations-in-case-of-no-deal-11671941
on the hopeful side, and this
https://news.sky.com/story/live-may-heads-to-brussels-seeking-brexit-delay-after-angering-mps-11671443
for something murkier.
My own opinion, me being poorly acquainted with the particulars of this case but wise in the ways of the left, is that Mrs. May has run a brilliant con on the British people. She has pretended incompetence and valium addiction while arranging a second referendum. I doubt her plan extends beyond that, but you must give her credit for a fine betrayal. She is as r-selected as … ok, I’m veering away from speculation into certainty and that wasn’t my plan.
The people have spoken. Now it’s time to shoot them.
It’s not really my fight, but I do understand the problems that Northern Ireland and the need for a hard border with Ireland creates. I do think May’s treaty is probably worse than a hard Brexit, but the EU thought they had no reason to help May.
It does appear as if a hard Brexit is the most likely outcome now, and the EU should fear that most of all. A successful post-EU UK will fan the flames of other countries to pull out. That could cause the EU to push more authority back to the countries (which could probably be the best thing for the future of the EU) or it could react by centralizing more power (which will likely cause the whole thing to blow up.)
Interesting times, as they say.
The article seems more like Y2K fears than any plans to start shooting people.
James:
“If Mrs. May actually ever believed she could deal with the EU and not get stabbed in the back it is a thrilling tale of naivety.”
Yes, but Theresa May was always part of the”club” and she knows “club” rules very well because she practices them herself against her enemies meaning most of the British people. She will do anything, no matter how bad it is for Britain, to stay in the EU. There is no cost too high nor ploy too low.
Exactly. Contingency plans. Bad move, bad optics.
Actually, I didn’t get the “ready to shoot people” vibe from the article. I found it so fuzzy minded (the article itself and its quoted remarks) that I put it down to:
I called it good news because it both suggests Hard Brexit is a real possibility and just by talking about it moves it a bit further into the window of discourse.