Ricochet is the best place on the internet to discuss the issues of the day, either through commenting on posts or writing your own for our active and dynamic community in a fully moderated environment. In addition, the Ricochet Audio Network offers over 50 original podcasts with new episodes released every day.
Your Big Prediction for 2014
At the end of today’s Ricochet podcast, James asked all of us what our big predictions for 2014 were. Mine: Republicans will take control of the Senate.
Will it happen? I don’t know, but the fact that President Obama is appointing Senator Max Baucus our Ambassador to China— and thereby putting an incumbent Democrat in a Montana seat that otherwise would have been vacant come next November—tells me that the White House doesn’t find the notion implausible.
How about you? What’s your big prediction for 2014?
Image of Mayan humiliation via Shutterstock
Published in General
Republicans are introduced to political realty, again, and fail to learn anything:
1. Obama isn’t on the 2014 ballot so his record disapproval rating means nothing.
2. Obamacare is the epic fail Ted Cruz and others said it would be, but because Paul Ryan is too busy growing the budget his talent on healthcare policy is wasted.
3. Republicans propose no alternative and reap no benefits from Obamacare’s implosion.
4. Republican’s pass some form of amnesty tied to E-verify and finish off whoever was left to reliably vote for them.
5. The same consultants/pollsters that predicted President Romney in 2012 are back whispering republicans pick up seats in the Senate and hold the House.
6. The republican platform in 2014 = “It will be worse if the democrats take this back.”
6. Conservatives/Activists/Tea Parties are so dispirited by republican cowardice and Boehner’s pouting since 2010 many don’t bother to vote in 2014.
7. Republicans pick up LA and NC Senate seats from well run state campaigns.
8 Conservative/Right wing apathy results in republicans losing the House.
And I will buy you dinner at Nick & Sam’s or Perry’s if this happens.
Yes, I see what you mean now.
And I agree. Actually, I’m afraid $2.99 (where it’s been hovering at gas stations near me) is a sign of just how anemic the US/World economy has become (not just a function of the Bakken).
$2.50 would FORCE Russia into an invasion of Georgia, just to boost prices.
Iran would also be pressured into attempting some stunt to boost spot sweet crude prices.
Both are nearly single export economies. Prices go up or they die.
A return to $1 gasoline forced Saddam to invade Kuwait, after all. And he knew, he either invaded Kuwait or he was done, anyway.
1. Obama isn’t on the 2014 ballot so his record disapproval rating means nothing.
The presidents approval rating is an import metric in predicting a party’s success in mid term elections. If the president is unpopular, his party gets crushed.
By the end of 2014, I will have read all of my 2013 National Reviews.
Republicans gain 5 seats in the Senate creating what is effectively a 50-50 split. Joe Manchin switches parties, giving the R’s a slight majority.
And I will buy you dinner at Nick & Sam’s or Perry’s if this happens. ·49 minutes ago
Deal.
Nonsense! This will be the year that Paul Allen’s misery ends as the Blazers finally win their second championship. ·1 hour ago
Better hope there isn’t another Memorial Day Miracle!
The Fed will do a better job that we imagine withdrawing the taper and the economy will do surprisingly well.
Under pressure from its donor class, the GOP and a moderate Dem (say Manchin) will offer insurance companies a lifeline — call it Son of TARP — as part of a Obamacare “replace” proposal. It will not be “filibusterable” because it’s a budget bill, enough Dems will go along that it passes, and Obama will sign begrudgingly (at least publicly). Privately, he’ll be ecstatic. Obamacare will be locked in.
Strangely enough, the air goes out of the GOP Senate surge and it does not retake the Senate.
And no one was ever going to challenge Boehner in the first place.
Nuff said
1. The US Government under the constitution will come to an end to be replaced by a bureaucratic/socialist/authoritarian state rules by executive decree. This will happen even if the Republicans win the House and Senate majorities in the election. The President will ignore the other two branches of government overtly, and no one will do anything about it.
2. The US government will replace Obamacare and transition to a single-payer health system, mostly by executive decree.
3. Iran and North Korea will get a working nuclear bomb.
4. The US will slip into recession and the EU will fall apart due to the Euro. Italy and Greece will withdraw from the Euro first.
5. There will be a major Islamic terrorist attack in the US or Europe.
6. Assad will fall in Syria.
2. The US government will replace Obamacare and transition to a single-payer health system, mostly by executive decree.
3. Iran and North Korea will get a working nuclear bomb.
4. The US will slip into recession and the EU will fall apart due to the Euro. Italy and Greece will withdraw from the Euro first.
5. There will be a major Islamic terrorist attack in the US or Europe.
6. Assad will fall in Syria. ·1 minute ago
And they accuse me of pessimism. Though it is hard to argue with some things on this list.
This strengthens the new wave of Chinese nationalism Beijing has been attempting stoke since 2008.
Obama and Kerry announce substantive agreements with China which end the crisis.. The agreement includes official recognition of China’s rights to the Senkakus.
Russia knows that time is running out on the Obama Free For All Zone. It occupies Georgia again, and “allows” it to join the Federation.
Gasoline in the US reaches $5 a gallon.
People who formally had health insurance begin to die from not seeking treatment.
The recession of 2007-2009 was small potatoes.
Chicago declares bankruptcy. There’s a mass exodus out of New York City due to de Blasio’s ludicrous policies. This causes New York to seek bankruptcy protections. Chain reaction bankruptcies ripple through northern cities all across the US.
Illinois defaults on its bonds.
DJIA falls to 8000.
…
Then things start to get bad.
Neolibertarian, it’s as if you were inhabiting my head.
Obama delays the employer mandate another year.
Lebron rejoins the Cavaliers.
The South will rise again!
1. The Cleveland Indians will, again, fail to take the pennant.
2. The Reds will, again, fail to take the pennant.
3. After a down year, my business will have a better 2014.
4. The media will begin open calls for Obama to run for a 3rd term.
5. Hollywood will begin open calls for Obama to become a dictator.
6. Chris Matthews “Leg Tingle” will require amputation.
7. As more people are kicked onto Medicaid, and thus forfeiting their assets to the fed (Medicaid is actually a loan), the media will blame the Republicans for… something.
8. In October, as it becomes apparent that the Dems will lose the Senate, Obama will invade Syria. The Dems will retain the Senate and gain seats in the House.
9. In December, Obama announces currency controls and a Cyprus-Style “haircut” on all US savings.
10. In December, Obama announces the he is nationalizing the airlines and restricting travel without NSA pre-clearance.
11. After this, Obama announces he has declared all major ISPs as “too big to fail” under Dodd Frank, and awarding their assets to Comcast / NBC.
12. Comcast CEO is appointed national internet Czar.
Yee-haw!!!
Here’s a real one:
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/12/19/Cruz-House-Republicans-pushing-amnesty-ensuring-Harry-Reid-Dems-keep-Senate
The East China Sea becomes a brief war zone next summer. China easily establishes hegemony and Japan is humiliated. China uses the Senkaku Islands to threaten Taiwan.
This strengthens the new wave of Chinese nationalism Beijing has been attempting stoke since 2008.
Obama and Kerry announce substantive agreements with China which end the crisis.. The agreement includes official recognition of China’s rights to the Senkakus.
Russia knows that time is running out on the Obama Free For All Zone. It occupies Georgia again, and “allows” it to join the Federation.
Gasoline in the US reaches $5 a gallon.
People who formally had health insurance begin to die from not seeking treatment.
The recession of 2007-2009 was small potatoes.
Chicago declares bankruptcy. There’s a mass exodus out of New York City due to de Blasio’s ludicrous policies. This causes New York to seek bankruptcy protections. Chain reaction bankruptcies ripple through northern cities all across the US.
Illinois defaults on its bonds.
DJIA falls to 8000.
The press suddenly realizes there’s an unemployment epidemic going on in the US…since 2008.
Who knew?
Then things start to get bad.
:-)
Neolibertarian. If gasoline goes to $5 it will touch $2.5 first.
I am sorry, but I need to amend one of my predictions, because it is coming true already:
As many of you know late Thursday night HHS and the Administration started the ‘fire sale’ on catastrophic coverage for so many who were cancelled and can’t get insurance through he exchanges. They have already sewed the seeds of the collapse of the private health insurance market with this illegal rule-making.
By the time the one year hardship provision expires supposedly Obamacare is fixed, people can get insurance easily, several walking dead Democrats in the Senate will survive by more lies about the program, and the insurance companies who crawled into bed with the Administration in 2009/2010 will be so close to bankrupt or so co-opted by the Administration they will easily be nationalized.
Obama will fix the crisis by a decree nationalizing the system and the Republicans will be powerless to stop him.
Sorry about the error.
Yes, I see what you mean now.
And I agree. Actually, I’m afraid $2.99 (where it’s been hovering at gas stations near me) is a sign of just how anemic the US/World economy has become (not just a function of the Bakken).
….
Geo political risk is real, relevant, and persistent. We have to contend with it daily.
From a pure supply/demand perspective there is tremendous imbalance, arguably historic imbalances developing upstream. The only outlet for those imbalances is refined product export(s), specifically ultra low sulfur diesel fuel and blend stock gasoline.
The imbalances are manifesting themselves in very odd ways in energy markets.
Absent a geo political disruption (Iran tests a nuke, etc.) I think we can see gasoline lower and will certainly see WTI crude oil lower.
Nonsense! This will be the year that Paul Allen’s misery ends as the Blazers finally win their second championship. ·6 hours ago
One right out of 2, I’m afraid. Yes, of course the Seahawks will win the Super Bowl, but I’m afraid that the NBA Championship will go to… (and this really sucks as someone who saw this team’s star in another uniform, once upon a time)…the Oklahoma City Thunder.
And no, I didn’t enjoy saying that; I grew up on “Rip City”, Bill Walton, Maurice Lucas and the rest. The Blazers have appeared just a bit too much out of nowhere (although their Western Conference final against the Thunder should be a doozy). There is next season, however…
Full scale riots in the USA with unstopable live and recorded footage via the web. American spring.
Yes.
DEAL WITH IT
Duck Dynasty 2014 season opener (probably on A&E with Phil ) pulls in 30 million viewers.
This strengthens the new wave of Chinese nationalism Beijing has been attempting stoke since 2008.
Obama and Kerry announce substantive agreements with China which end the crisis.. The agreement includes official recognition of China’s rights to the Senkakus.
Russia knows that time is running out on the Obama Free For All Zone. It occupies Georgia again, and “allows” it to join the Federation.
Gasoline in the US reaches $5 a gallon.
People who formally had health insurance begin to die from not seeking treatment.
The recession of 2007-2009 was small potatoes.
Chicago declares bankruptcy. There’s a mass exodus out of New York City due to de Blasio’s ludicrous policies. This causes New York to seek bankruptcy protections. Chain reaction bankruptcies ripple through northern cities all across the US.
Illinois defaults on its bonds.
DJIA falls to 8000.
The press suddenly realizes there’s an unemployment epidemic going on in the US…since 2008.
Is this a memo from zombie Tom Clancy?
Scotland will vote against independence from the UK, disappointing diehard Braveheart fans and (secretly) the Conservative Party.
1. The coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD will collapse leading to new elections in Germany. Either the AfD (Alternative fuer Deutschland) or a resurgent FDP will gain ground. So will the Greens, at the cost to the SPD. The CDU/CSU and one of the other two conservative parties will form a new coalition government without any of the left parties leaving the left in a strong minority position.
2. Israel will attack Iran. Or it will be attacked by Iran. Either way, the unstable situation finally explodes.
3. China….well, see Neolibertarian’s predictions above.
4. A&E goes bankrupt owing to the boycott and a series of lawsuits brought by the Robertson family and ends the year in receivership. Meanwhile, the Robertsons achieve higher ratings than ever on their new network.
5. Republicans pick up majorityship in the senate and expand their lead in the House, thanks in no small part to the ongoing Obamacare disaster and unexpectedly smart campaigning on the pro-life issue in key states (LA, MO, IN, AK).
6. Most of these predictions prove wrong.