Russian Collusion and Active Measures

 

I spent most of my 30 years in the FBI dealing with counterintelligence. I have been retired for 20 years and have no inside information. My comments are based on facts reported in the news.

The idea that the FBI opened a counterintelligence case on facts that led them to believe President Trump was an agent of Russian Intelligence is an interesting one. What could have been the predication that was sufficient to set this in motion in the FBI? I think it is possible there was more to this than some short-sighted bureaucrats striking out against a person they regarded as a political enemy.

Consider the following:

  • The Russian intelligence services have long engaged in “Active Measures,” which are sophisticated disinformation actions to influence or disrupt its enemies. For years, particularly during the Cold War, western counterintelligence services suspected that the KGB was sending us false (perhaps, “fake” is a better word here) defectors and recruitments in place.
  • Anatoliy Golitsyn, a KGB officer who defected in 1961, was suspected of being such a fake defector. Among several things he reported that were believed to be false, was information that UK Prime Minister Harold Wilson was a KGB informer and an agent of influence of the Soviet Union.
  • The Russian security services must have known that Christopher Steele was collecting information about Donald Trump for Hillary Clinton. It is impossible that a former British intelligence officer could have moved around Russia collecting information from Russians without coming to the attention of Russian security services. It is hard to believe that the Russians would have passed up such an opportunity to contribute disinformation to Steele’s dossier.
  • The FBI has fought tenaciously to hide the information on which the Russia investigation was initiated. If the basis for the investigation was just the George Papadopoulos information and/or the Steele dossier, why would they fight so hard to keep it secret? Was there something much more secret that the FBI would not disclose?
  • Several Republican Senators and Congressmen have seen the pertinent FBI documents and say that the basis for the investigation was sound. Would they say that if the basis was the Papadopoulos information and the dossier?
  • When we try to find out something important in the intelligence world, the first place professionals go is to their defectors and recruitments in place. In an investigation of what the Russian intelligence services were doing in our election, wouldn’t the FBI and CIA ask their Russian defectors and recruitments? Could such a source be what the FBI is protecting?
  • Is it possible the FBI had the Steele dossier and found it was confirmed by a recruitment in place or a defector? If the FBI had information from such a source, they might have believed it and that would be the sort of thing they would protect until the end. Anatoliy Golitsyn may have been just the first Russian intelligence agent to provide disinformation that a Western head of state was an agent of Russian Intelligence.

These facts suggest the Russians may indeed be behind the Russia story — not by colluding with President Trump, but by running a disinformation action and, perhaps, a fake defector or recruitment at the FBI and CIA. If so, they fooled CIA Chief Brennan and Director Comey and produced much more disruption than they could have imagined. Golitsyn’s information about Prime Minister Wilson was disruptive but, in the end, most counterintelligence professionals were not fooled. If the Russians have done such a thing now with the Trump collusion narrative, it surely has been the most damaging disinformation program that they ever pulled off.

The counterintelligence world is a complicated and multifaceted place. If the Russians were running a collusion disinformation effort, the situation called for the leadership of the FBI to exercise the greatest sophistication and act with great care. One would hope that senior FBI officials would be sophisticated enough not to be taken in by such a scheme. Director Comey may have known a lot about criminal investigation, but he was a rookie in the counterintelligence world. I doubt Comey was a person who would have enough self-awareness to recognize he didn’t know very much about counterintelligence and his chief advisors, McCabe and Strzok, don’t strike me as careful, sophisticated people.

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  1. Columbo Inactive
    Columbo
    @Columbo

    Dan Bongino is also a former member of our federal law enforcement. His 35+ minute talk at the Restoration Weekend Gathering last November is worth a listen.

    0bama, Mueller And The Biggest Scam In American History

    • #1
  2. danok1 Member
    danok1
    @danok1

    Joe Wolfinger: Is it possible the FBI had the Steele dossier and found it was confirmed by a recruitment in place or a defector? If the FBI had information from such a source, they might have believed it and that would be the sort of thing they would protect until the end.

    I can’t comment on your other points, but Comey testified to Congress that the FBI had not verified the information in the Steele file, at least not when they used it as a basis for the FISA warrant  application nor when Comey testified. I don’t know if that’s changed, though if it had I assume the Dems would be shouting it from the rooftops.

    • #2
  3. Joe Wolfinger Coolidge
    Joe Wolfinger
    @JRWOLFINGER

    Re danokl: Good point but whether something was confirmed, or not, is a question of art.  It is possible a source told the FBI or CIA that Trump was a Russian agent, just like Golitsyn’s “information” that Harold Wilson was a KGB agent.  That would not be confirmation of the many crazy things the dossier said.  If Comey or McCabe believed fake information at the time they received it, would they have been willing to admit that?

    • #3
  4. Al French, sad sack Moderator
    Al French, sad sack
    @AlFrench

    Interesting theory.

    What is a “recruitment in place”?

    • #4
  5. EDISONPARKS Member
    EDISONPARKS
    @user_54742

    In this day of leaking to advance/bolster ones position, it seems phenomenally unlikely  there is “super secret something” being held close to the vest by the Obama FBI/DOJ/IC past and present holdovers (of which the Mueller team appears to be a part of).   The “super secret something” would have at least been alluded to by now.

    Moreover, the notion that the revolving door of Trump team lawyers and cabinet members  would have kept a lid on the “super secret something” is extraordinarily unlikely.

    But the dead to rights certainty that the “super secret something” would have seen the light of day by now is the inevitable leaking by the Senate and House gang of eight, particularly Adam Schiff and/or Mark Warner.  It make no sense that either of these two unethical weasels would pass up the opportunity to disseminate this specific piece of information in order to screw Trump to the wall.

    • #5
  6. PHCheese Inactive
    PHCheese
    @PHCheese

    .I respect your opinion as someone that actually has knowledge of the FBI, however I have one question I would like answered. Why if the FBI thought the Russians were involved with our election didn’t they also  run an investigation of the same type on HRC? The only answer that seems reasonable to me is the entire thing is political. Comey and his cronies should be shot for treason. They have done irreparable harm to the FBI/DOJ and our political civility. They have criminalized  legitimate political and policy differences. They have  weaponized “our” government against half it people. On second thought maybe being shot is to good for them

    • #6
  7. Joe Wolfinger Coolidge
    Joe Wolfinger
    @JRWOLFINGER

    Al French, sad sack (View Comment):

    Interesting theory.

    What is a “recruitment in place”?

    a recruitment in place is a member of a hostile intelligence service that we have recruited to secretly work for us.  Such Sources provide high level information if they are valid.  The problem is the people who operate these sources want to believe they are getting good information.  If so, they are playing an important role.  If the source is providing disinformation, then the status of the people who are controlling the source is greatly diminished.

    To properly assess these sources requires considerable counterintelligence experience.  I doubt Comey or the others at the top of the FBI could tell you who Golitsyn was.

    • #7
  8. DrewInWisconsin Member
    DrewInWisconsin
    @DrewInWisconsin

    Joe Wolfinger: If so, they fooled CIA Chief Brennan and Director Comey and produced much more disruption than they could have imagined.

    Fooled them? Or they willingly cooperated with them? I suspect the latter.

    • #8
  9. Joe Wolfinger Coolidge
    Joe Wolfinger
    @JRWOLFINGER

    EDISONPARKS (View Comment):
    n this day of leaking to advance/bolster ones position, it seems phenomenally unlikely there is “super secret something” being held close to the vest by the Obama FBI/DOJ/IC past and present holdovers (of which the Mueller team appears to be a part of). The “super secret something” would have at least been alluded to by now.

    when i was there we could keep such things secret.

    • #9
  10. Danny Alexander Member
    Danny Alexander
    @DannyAlexander

    Small but non-trivial correction to the OP.

    Christopher Steele never personally moved around in Russia in order to amass the material he and his associates assembled into what became the dossier informally bearing his name.

    Per reporting, then-SIS/MI6 agent Christopher Steele’s diplomatic cover was blown while he was on assignment in Russia in 1999, and he has not been back to the country since.

    https://www.tabletmag.com/jewish-news-and-politics/253004/fusion-gps-donald-trump

     

    • #10
  11. Joe Wolfinger Coolidge
    Joe Wolfinger
    @JRWOLFINGER

    Danny Alexander (View Comment):
    Christopher Steele never personally moved around in Russia in order to amass the material he and his associates assembled into what became the dossier informally bearing his name.

    He was dealing with Russians in Russia and whether he was personally meeting them there, it is impossible to believe he was able to contact these people without coming to the attention of the Russian security service.  Since the Russians are in Russia, they are available to do whatwever the secirty service wishes for them to do.

    • #11
  12. Mark Camp Member
    Mark Camp
    @MarkCamp

    Glad there are folks like you around who think of the possibilities and counter-possibilities and counter-counter- ones, so we don’t have to.

    (I can’t even follow an episode of Murder She Wrote.  “You mean he’s the BAD guy?”, I exclaim.   “Shhh…I’m trying to watch the show. Stop asking questions.”)

    That skill doesn’t leave you I guess, even long after retirement.  I bet a teenager never got away with a whopper in your household. But you must be really nervous at cocktail parties, looking at people kind of squinty-eyed when they walk up and  say “Hi, my name Natasha.  What is you do?”

    I’m clean, by the way.  I’ve been checked out.

    • #12
  13. Joe Wolfinger Coolidge
    Joe Wolfinger
    @JRWOLFINGER

    PHCheese (View Comment):
    Why if the FBI thought the Russians were involved with our election didn’t they also run an investigation of the same type on HRC?

    The shame of what has happened is that Comey ran a very poor investigation against Hillary and Mueller is running the kind of investigation that the FBI is known for.  There are so many problems with the Hillary investigation:  Comey made deals, granted immunity, failed to use the grand jury, allowed Cheryl Mills, who was a subject of the investigation) and others to sit in on Hillary’s interview and then made the prosecutive decision when that is never done by the FBI.  Mueller on the other hand, is using the grand jury, charging people who lied, putting pressure on people to see if he can roll them.  

    If Comey had done a proper investigation of Hillary, Mueller’s investigation wouldn’t look so harsh.  By comparison, it looks terribly unfair but you don’t solve the Hillary mistakes by making the same mistakes with the Russia collusion investigation.

    Incidentally, I have always doubted there was anything to the Russian collusion allegation.

    • #13
  14. Joe Wolfinger Coolidge
    Joe Wolfinger
    @JRWOLFINGER

    DrewInWisconsin (View Comment):
    Fooled them? Or they willingly cooperated with them? I suspect the latter.

    I can’t tell you how disappointed I am at what Comey did to the FBI.  My guess is he thought he was smarter than he is and that led him to make serious mistakes.  I don’t think he would have willingly cooperated with the Russians.  My guess is Brennan is a 100% political creature.  Both have hurt the agencies they led.

    • #14
  15. EDISONPARKS Member
    EDISONPARKS
    @user_54742

    Joe Wolfinger (View Comment):

    EDISONPARKS (View Comment):
    n this day of leaking to advance/bolster ones position, it seems phenomenally unlikely there is “super secret something” being held close to the vest by the Obama FBI/DOJ/IC past and present holdovers (of which the Mueller team appears to be a part of). The “super secret something” would have at least been alluded to by now.

    when i was there we could keep such things secret.

    With everything we do know having been revealed since this debacle began, and with every different Agency, Congressional committee, lawyers for defendants under investigation, journalists digging (and being the beneficiaries of leaks), etc.  …. the  big reveal “super secret something” is simply not there, and in all likelihood never was.

    It is quite possible Brennan/Clapper/Comey/Yeats/et al were hoping to God to uncover this elusive “super secret something” so they would be able to quit playing this unprecedented monstrous game of CYA in an effort to keep themselves out of the Hoosegow.

    It appears as if Mueller’s end game is to prolong the investigation as long as possible, use the MSM to keep Trump boxed in politically, and possibly find Trumpy financial things unrelated to Russia to impeach Trump.  In the end the hope is with the passage of time and the complicated story line moving in multiple directions the public and (R)’s will over time become exhausted/confused/bored with the entire matter and be lulled into being satisfied with the inevitable wrist slaps given to those who perpetrated the biggest abuse of power political scandal by the FBI/DOJ/IC  in the history of he United States.

    Of course it can’t be the biggest scandal in US history if the MSM refuses to cover the scandal …. a scandal in itself, which does not bode well for the future of the Republic.

    • #15
  16. Columbo Inactive
    Columbo
    @Columbo

    Joe Wolfinger (View Comment):

    DrewInWisconsin (View Comment):
    Fooled them? Or they willingly cooperated with them? I suspect the latter.

    I can’t tell you how disappointed I am at what Comey did to the FBI. My guess is he thought he was smarter than he is and that led him to make serious mistakes. I don’t think he would have willingly cooperated with the Russians. My guess is Brennan is a 100% political creature. Both have hurt the agencies they led.

    Brennan is evil. Clapper, Comey, Strzk, Mueller are all 0bama henchmen, subverting justice.

    The Face Of The Deep State

    A Not So Secret Secret Agent Man

    Does This Pose Make Me Look Guilty

     

    • #16
  17. Bob Thompson Member
    Bob Thompson
    @BobThompson

    Two items you might have a comment on, Joe:

    Wasn’t there some failures in reporting requirements from the intelligence agencies (FBI and CIA) during the period just prior to the election? This could mean that members of the Gang of 8 (Senate and House) did not have the information in order to leak it.

    I have seen it reported that Wikileaks had in its possession evidence that the CIA had a capability to false-flag hacking into databases and some have alleged this was what was done at the DNC, i.e. the CIA covered the possible thumb drive leak and alleged instead that there was an on-line hack. And there has never been an actual government authoritative inquiry reported.

    • #17
  18. danok1 Member
    danok1
    @danok1

    Joe Wolfinger (View Comment):
    My guess is Brennan is a 100% political creature.

    And a Communist. Well, former Communist so he claims.

    • #18
  19. Neil Hansen (Klaatu) Inactive
    Neil Hansen (Klaatu)
    @Klaatu

    PHCheese (View Comment):
    I respect your opinion as someone that actually has knowledge of the FBI, however I have one question I would like answered. Why if the FBI thought the Russians were involved with our election didn’t they also run an investigation of the same type on HRC? The only answer that seems reasonable to me is the entire thing is political.

    Or, one campaign hired the likes of Paul Manafort, Rick Gates, Carter Page, and Roger Stone while the other didn’t.

    • #19
  20. Front Seat Cat Member
    Front Seat Cat
    @FrontSeatCat

    Joe Wolfinger (View Comment):

    Danny Alexander (View Comment):
    Christopher Steele never personally moved around in Russia in order to amass the material he and his associates assembled into what became the dossier informally bearing his name.

    He was dealing with Russians in Russia and whether he was personally meeting them there, it is impossible to believe he was able to contact these people without coming to the attention of the Russian security service. Since the Russians are in Russia, they are available to do whatwever the secirty service wishes for them to do.

    Maybe Steele was playing for both sides.

    • #20
  21. Hank Rhody, Acting on Emotion Contributor
    Hank Rhody, Acting on Emotion
    @HankRhody

    Joe Wolfinger: Is it possible the FBI had the Steele dossier and found it was confirmed by a recruitment in place or a defector? If the FBI had information from such a source, they might have believed it and that would be the sort of thing they would protect until the end. Anatoliy Golitsyn may have been just the first Russian intelligence agent to provide disinformation that a Western head of state was an agent of Russian Intelligence.

    The thing about this is that right now I’m willing to take the FBI apart entirely over this … scandal I guess is the word. Doesn’t seem strong enough.

    I can understand protecting sources and methods beyond any other type of information, however they’re still tools in service of a greater cause. The FBI and all it’s work is meant to preserve our freedom. If the FBI can do this sort of investigation on the basis that we’ve seen publicly against a presidential candidate much less a sitting president then they’re the masters, not the people’s elected representatives. If there is sufficient cause to believe that Trump is acting treasonously (not just ‘collusion’, but actively selling out our country) then sooner or later the FBI is going to have to submit facts to a candid world.

    The way I see it either Trump is harming the freedom of America or the FBI is. Given everything I’ve heard up until this point I’m inclined to believe the latter. And either way one of them has to go.

    • #21
  22. Front Seat Cat Member
    Front Seat Cat
    @FrontSeatCat

    Mark Camp (View Comment):

    Glad there are folks like you around who think of the possibilities and counter-possibilities and counter-counter- ones, so we don’t have to.

    (I can’t even follow an episode of Murder She Wrote. “You mean he’s the BAD guy?”, I exclaim. “Shhh…I’m trying to watch the show. Stop asking questions.”)

    That skill doesn’t leave you I guess, even long after retirement. I bet a teenager never got away with a whopper in your household. But you must be really nervous at cocktail parties, looking at people kind of squinty-eyed when they walk up and say “Hi, my name Natasha. What is you do?”

    I’m clean, by the way. I’ve been checked out.

    Natasha is a common name at the local Mexican restaurants around here – 

    • #22
  23. EDISONPARKS Member
    EDISONPARKS
    @user_54742

    Neil Hansen (Klaatu) (View Comment):

    PHCheese (View Comment):
    I respect your opinion as someone that actually has knowledge of the FBI, however I have one question I would like answered. Why if the FBI thought the Russians were involved with our election didn’t they also run an investigation of the same type on HRC? The only answer that seems reasonable to me is the entire thing is political.

    Or, one campaign hired the likes of Paul Manafort, Rick Gates, Carter Page, and Roger Stone while the other didn’t.

    You must be referring to the campaign that hired Glenn Simpson’s Fusion/GPS, Christopher Steele, Sidney Blumenthal, and Cody Shearer.

    • #23
  24. Joe Wolfinger Coolidge
    Joe Wolfinger
    @JRWOLFINGER

    Front Seat Cat (View Comment):
    Maybe Steele was playing for both sides.

    He wouldn’t be the first to do that but I don’t know that there is any evidence of that.

    • #24
  25. Front Seat Cat Member
    Front Seat Cat
    @FrontSeatCat

    You post makes a lot of sense – but taken in context with the fact that much of the upper ranks of the FBI deplored Trump – their emails revealed that – they were doing their jobs with horse blinders on – it seems with the hanky panky, the links to Fusion GPS and on and on, they probably couldn’t determine a fake source if they wanted to. They wanted this info to be true.  It’s a sad sad day for the Republic, but I’m glad so much is being revealed, and hopefully cleaned up!  On that note, I dread 2020 elections, if Russia can kick up this much dirt.

    • #25
  26. Joe Wolfinger Coolidge
    Joe Wolfinger
    @JRWOLFINGER

    Bob Thompson (View Comment):
    Wasn’t there some failures in reporting requirements from the intelligence agencies (FBI and CIA) during the period just prior to the election? This could mean that members of the Gang of 8 (Senate and House) did not have the information in order to leak it

    I don’t know about this but will say that it is most disappointing to see the leaks that have occurred recently.  It was always bad but seems to me far worse than anything during my time.

    • #26
  27. Neil Hansen (Klaatu) Inactive
    Neil Hansen (Klaatu)
    @Klaatu

    EDISONPARKS (View Comment):
    You must be referring to the campaign that hired Glenn Simpson’s Fusion/GPS, Christopher Steele, Sidney Blumenthal, and Cody Shearer.

    Why?  What is their relationship to the Russian regime?

    • #27
  28. PHCheese Inactive
    PHCheese
    @PHCheese

    Neil Hansen (Klaatu) (View Comment):

    PHCheese (View Comment):
    I respect your opinion as someone that actually has knowledge of the FBI, however I have one question I would like answered. Why if the FBI thought the Russians were involved with our election didn’t they also run an investigation of the same type on HRC? The only answer that seems reasonable to me is the entire thing is political.

    Or, one campaign hired the likes of Paul Manafort, Rick Gates, Carter Page, and Roger Stone while the other didn’t.

    Yes and Hillary had Password  Podesta .

    • #28
  29. Miffed White Male Member
    Miffed White Male
    @MiffedWhiteMale

    PHCheese (View Comment):

    .I respect your opinion as someone that actually has knowledge of the FBI, however I have one question I would like answered. Why if the FBI thought the Russians were involved with our election didn’t they also run an investigation of the same type on HRC? The only answer that seems reasonable to me is the entire thing is political. Comey and his cronies should be shot for treason. They have done irreparable harm to the FBI/DOJ and our political civility. They have criminalized legitimate political and policy differences. They have weaponized “our” government against half it people. On second thought maybe being shot is to good for them

    The irony is that the US reaction over the past two-plus year to the Russian Meddling has done more to advance the goal of the Russians (sow discord and distrust in the American electoral and governmental system) than the actual meddling did.

    • #29
  30. Neil Hansen (Klaatu) Inactive
    Neil Hansen (Klaatu)
    @Klaatu

    PHCheese (View Comment):
    Yes and Hillary had Password Podesta .

    And?

    • #30
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