10 Reasons Trump Will Win Reelection

 

Following up on the 2016 classic 10 Reasons Trump Will Win, here are the 10 Reasons Trump Will Win Reelection:

1. First time’s the hardest

Parties running for a second term have won eleven times and lost just once (Carter / Reagan) since 1900. Getting elected is hard. Getting reelected is much easier. Especially when…

2. Morning in America (and the world?) again

Things have improved for the majority of the country not obsessed with politics. Especially when compared with the fear-mongering predictions.

Dow will never cross 18,000 again? It’s crossed 24.

Trump has no magic wand to get the growth rate up or bring jobs back? He did.

Net neutrality will kill everybody who didn’t die from the tax cut apocalypse. So will pulling out of the Paris Accords and moving the embassy to Jerusalem.

Handmaid’s Tale, putting people in camps, blundering us into nuclear war.

In reality, far fewer people are dying in Syria and elsewhere than under prior administrations. By election day we’re likely to see further steps towards North Korean denuclearizing and partially reunifying with the South. We may also see further progress in Iranians liberating themselves, and continued improvements in relations between Israel and her neighbors. The Islamic State caliphate has been almost entirely taken down. Things will likely look better on election day.

Other than the deranged Trump hatred, the country and the world are better off than they were two years ago, quite the opposite of the insane predictions.

3. Reagan Dems have no home to return to

This election will largely be decided by the working class Rust Belt voters whose families gave us JFK, Reagan, Bill Clinton, Obama, and Trump.

The Democrats hate them. They really hate them.

Chuck and Nancy established that walls are immoral. And they’re the moderates. Open borders are more important than open government.

Gramps’ wing that Kevin Williamson trollingly (but accurately) described as National Socialists has gone full Socialist International. Open borders and socialism.

They want to replace the deplorables with better people from elsewhere.

This is the “the future is female and intersectional” party now.

They hate Catholics, coal, Trump voters, and (strangely) bringing American troops back from the Middle East. And they want to pack the court.

Despite all the misleading talk about Repubs being extremists, in more ways the realignment saw Trump take the middle and the popular positions and leave the extremes to the Dems.

4. Hillary wasn’t the problem

Ask Hillary supporters why Trump won and they’ll say “Russia.”

Ask Trump-hating Repubs and they’ll say “Hillary.”

No.

Hillary had many flaws, but also strengths.

The first woman. She was secretary of state, senator, and first lady. Her husband loved and was loved by the voters Hillary needed. She would take us back to the better and less bitter 90s, while also taking us forward.

Her successor will have her own flaws, and none of these strengths. And by election day, will have likability numbers in the Hillary / Trump range. 2016 was a choice between two historically unpopular candidates more because of bitter partisanship than because of the particular candidates.

5. Trump’s opponents go down

Avenatti, Stormy, The Weekly Standard, Liz Warren, Hillary, Corker, Flake, Comey, Michael Wolff, Michelle Wolf, the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, Merkel, Macron, Zuckerberg, Colin Kaepernick, the Oscars, Harvey Weinstein, Al Franken, and Jeb!, to name a few.

Some of these went down when Trump found a vulnerability and kept hitting it.

But mostly, Trump opponents self-destruct.

Some went down in their misguided responses to Trump. Rubio was the first to learn, too late for him, that Trump didn’t change the rules, he’s just exempt from them. The old rules still apply to everyone else.

Unless you’re Trump, if you go Trump, you lose.

Some went down because the forces they unleashed to fight Trump turned on them. Often with good reason. Eventually, they came for Robespierre too. Or as Derek Hunter likes saying, Frankenstein always comes back to the castle.

Others went down because they never should have been elevated. Deranged media had beer goggles for anyone who attacked Trump, and eventually had to cut bait after further embarrassing themselves with clowns like Avenatti and Wolff. I suspect those who elevated AOC will suffer for it.

All of them misread the terrain, playing to the clapping seals of Trump-haters, oblivious to their vulnerabilities and to how their shtick plays outside their bubble.

Trump’s opponents may start with decent numbers. They won’t stay decent.

While on the other side…

6. Trump has already been hit with everything

Let’s call Trump a Putin-puppet racist rapist, compulsive liar, narcissistic conman who sexually desires his daughter, and is literally Hitler.

Done. What else you got?

There’s a saturation point after which more attacks just show decent folks that you’re the bully.

This will be especially true when more Americans fully understand things like the Steele Dossier scandal. About which…

7. Dems lost their key corrupt allies

Brennan, Clapper, Comey, McCabe, Powers, Rice, Ohr, Strzok, Page, Lois Lerner, and others are out. I’m sure Dems still have some dirty tricks up their sleeves. But it’s going to be much harder for them in 2020 when their corrupt friends hold less power.

8. The media has been exposed

Media didn’t have much credibility in 2016, but they still had some. They always had some token Repubs to give them the facade of non-partisanship.

But they spent the past few years all-in against Trump. They don’t even have Trump agnostics at most major outlets. Just a combination of Trump-hating Democrats and Ana Navarros. Fewer people who can be influenced will believe a word they say.

9. Timing

When George HW seemed to be soaring to reelection, George Will warned that Bush got the timing wrong.

The idea was to have the big divisive fights early (Trump went overboard here) and to unify before the reelection.

Trump will time his crises so that most resolve before his reelection. Even limited victories will move important numbers in the right directions.

Stay on point, Donald” will be gracious at the end of the campaign, winning back some people who want to vote for him if he’ll just stop being mean for a bit.

The House elections were a disaster but Trump correctly focused on the Senate in the midterms, helping to knock off four of the Trump-state ten. He can close well in most of the swing states.

On the other side, the normal opposition playbook is to accept the election results, appear to work with the president, and then say “we tried but he’s just impossible.” Four years of “the Russians tricked the racists into voting for the monster so we should eliminate the electoral college to take away those voters’ power” is an approach that’s never been tried before. For good reason.

10. Repubs are more unified

Repubs were a hot mess on election day in 2016, and in the year following. Most were positioning themselves for the post-Trump era. It took long enough, but they’ve now accepted that their only path to success lies through Trump’s. Trump in turn accepted that his only path to success lies through Cocaine Mitch.

Corker and Flake (and Bannon and Omarosa) are gone. Romney attacked once; he likely won’t do it again.

Lindsey 2.0 has become Trump’s leading wingman. Trump can stop being his own bad cop as allies finally have his back, as most Repub voters want.

Ninety percent of Repub voters support Trump. Many Late-Trump Republicans, who hated Trump during the primaries, are now more solidly pro-Trump than even the MAGAs and Reagan Dems. Trump won their loyalty with judges, Jerusalem (and Israel in general), deregulation, energy development, and generally standing up for “us” (Christian baker, America, deplorables, Kavanaugh…) against those who oppose us.

On the other side, Dems will destroy each other.

Do they work with Trump, or not? Once you’ve established that Trump, Repubs, and everything they stand for are wrong and evil, how do you move forward?

If Repubs have a primary, it will just further prove how solidly they support Trump.

Dem primaries are going to be brutal, and may even go to a contested convention where the candidates will vie for the title of biggest lunatic.

The DNC may be corrupt and evil but they were only mostly clueless. They won’t be able to control the process or the results this time. They won’t be able to make the top challenger say things like “nobody cares about your emails,” or pretend that the delegates didn’t vote against God and Jerusalem. They won’t be able to stop their party from following the Israeli left into long-term opposition.

Summary: A very short story

Once upon a time, there was a large group of swing voters in swing states who were not just underrepresented but despised by many of the most powerful and influential people on all sides.

An unlikely hero or grifter or conman, maybe all of the above, took up their cause. The respectable rich and powerful people hit him with everything they had. But they failed to stop him.

People and groups that hated this man decided to try to work with him, making those who still hated him even angrier. Those who worked with him were happy and successful. Those who opposed him were not, and they kept getting uglier, angrier and crazier, until they had no hope of ever winning back the people they so hated.

Halfway through his first term, he was in the middle of many battles. But he ended them before reelection day, with considerable success.

He went into reelection day with a lot more support than he had four years earlier, especially among the swing voters from swing states whom he first championed. His opponents double down on screaming at the sky.

The end.

Published in Elections
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  1. Misthiocracy secretly Member
    Misthiocracy secretly
    @Misthiocracy

    Gil Reich (View Comment):

    Misthiocracy secretly (View Comment):

    Stad (View Comment):

    Gil Reich: 3. Reagan Dems have no home to return to

    This one is “yuge” to me, but I won’t call them Reagan Democrats here in 2019. I’ll call them conservative Democrats using my definition:

    A Democrat voter who is typically blue-collar, Christian, gun owning, hunts and fishes, fully supports our military, capitalist (but may not know it), supports law-enforcement, is appalled by what is being taught in public schools but can’t do anything about it, balances the family budget . . . let me stop here for brevity.

    Where he differs from conservative Republicans is:

    Believes government can be a solution to our nation’s problems, supports government social welfare programs, supports public schools in principle (even if opposed to their agenda for their children), supports LGBT rights (although opposed to the LBGT agenda being rammed down their throats), again, let me stop here for brevity.

    In other words, people who are holding out for a Jed Bartlet presidency.

    Or Bill Clinton

    Bartlet was “Clinton but without the perversion”.

    Trump is “Clinton but without the shame”.

    • #31
  2. cdor Member
    cdor
    @cdor

    Mendel (View Comment):

    cdor (View Comment):
    @mendel do you hold Trump responsible for not having built the wall and/or repealing Obamacare? And do you believe most voters will hold him responsible for those two deficiencies?

    To reiterate, one of Trump’s selling points was “you can’t trust GOP leadership to deliver your policy wishes, so you need me to prod and poke the unwilling GOPe to do your bidding”. So even if repealing Obamacare was rightly a legislative prerogative, he foretold their intransigence but didn’t deliver on the poking and/or prodding.

    And with the current spat, we see that he is still more than capable of poking and prodding. We can split hairs about what he did or did not request in previous budgets, but there’s no question that he didn’t show any of the passion for the wall at any point during which his party held Congress. So to my mind, that’s a failure to even try to deliver on his promise.

    I don’t personally hold him responsible, because frankly I never expected him to deliver on any of these promises. Then again, I think Trump is a huge fraud who is completely oversold by his supporters (including those who claim to be deeply distrustful of him). At the same time, Trump has so far proven much better than WBush, and I will probably vote for him next time around. So take that as an endorsement or derision as you wish.

    OK…I guess.

    • #32
  3. Goldwaterwoman Thatcher
    Goldwaterwoman
    @goldwaterwoman

    I hope you’re right, but the MSM is in full-blown get rid of Trump mode and is a huge obstacle. 

    • #33
  4. Manny Coolidge
    Manny
    @Manny

    I hope you’re right. Praying. 

    Did you mention the economy should still be very strong in 2020? It should be. 

    • #34
  5. E. Kent Golding Moderator
    E. Kent Golding
    @EKentGolding

    Trump is President.   He gets credit for everything good that happens (even if he had nothing to do with it ) and blame for everything bad that happens ( even if he had nothing to do with it ).

    I blame him for Obamacare not being repealed,  for Planned Parenthood  being funded, and for the Wall not being built.    He had a nominally Republican Congress.    LBJ, Reagan, Nixon and JFK could all have made those things happen with a Republican Congress.   Trump should have bullied those he could bully, and flatter those he had to flatter,  and horse trade with the rest,   and he could have won on all three of those issues.   You don’t think enough flattery wouldn’t have had Flake and McCain singing his praises?  Same with Joe Manchin.    With enough commitment and effort, a republican congress will do whatever a republican president requests.   Trump would be in better shape if Obamacare had been repealed,  Planned Parenthood defunded, and Wall built — he would look stronger rather than weaker,  and people vote for someone who looks strong.

    In addition,   Obama is slowly being forgotten by the  those who voted for Trump because they didn’t want Obama’s third term.

    Trumps only hope for re-election is if the democrats nominate someone as inept as Hillary rather than someone of average political talents.  Unfortunately, ineptitude like Hillary’s is really really rare.  She was a unique talent.

    • #35
  6. JustmeinAZ Member
    JustmeinAZ
    @JustmeinAZ

    You made Instapundit!

    • #36
  7. Gary Robbins Member
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    PHCheese (View Comment):

    Gil you need to take it easy, Gary just got out of the hospital.

    I heard that!

    Actually, it is a well written post.  I differ on one point.  Usually, since the 22nd Amendment was ratified in 1951, most parties do better in the second election.  For example, (1) JFK barely won in 1960, but LBJ crushed Goldwater in 1964, (2) Nixon barely won in 1968, but crushed McGovern in 1972, (3) Reagan won in 1980, but crushed Mondale in 1984, (4) Clinton increased his percentage in 1996 over 1992, (5) W barely won in 2000, and improved his percentages in 2004.

    But, (1) Carter lost in 1980, after winning in 1976, and (2) Romney substantially reduced the size of Obama’s percentage of victory from a 7% margin in 2008 to a 4% margin in 2012.

    The level of loathing of Trump is the highest I have seen in my lifetime, and dwarfs the antipathy to Obama.  The Dems got 9.3% more of the vote than us in the 2018 House races.  That is staggering.  I believe that Trump will lose, and if we are tied to him, we will lose in the House, Senate and Governorships.   However, I think that we will win if we nominate Mattis, Romney, Haley, Kasich, Flake or Sasse.

    • #37
  8. OmegaPaladin Moderator
    OmegaPaladin
    @OmegaPaladin

    Welcome, Instapundit Readers!

    This is Ricochet, a home for center-right conversation on the Web.   Most of our content is produced by amazing members just like Gil – we take after Glenn’s idea of an Army of Davids   Feel free to browse our Main Feed, with articles by other members that were promoted for their excellent writing.  We also have a wide range of podcasts for every flavor of conservative out there.

    If you want to get in on the action here, you need to be a member.  Membership offers a lot of access and no trolls in exchange for a small fee.

    I look forward to reading your articles, and hopefully seeing them on the Professor’s site!

    • #38
  9. Flicker Coolidge
    Flicker
    @Flicker

    Gil Reich: Parties running for a second term have won eleven times and lost just once (Carter / Reagan) since 1900.

    What about Bush to Clinton?

    • #39
  10. Gil Reich Member
    Gil Reich
    @GilReich

    Flicker (View Comment):

    Gil Reich: Parties running for a second term have won eleven times and lost just once (Carter / Reagan) since 1900.

    What about Bush to Clinton?

    In 92 Bush was running for his party’s fourth term. 

    • #40
  11. Gil Reich Member
    Gil Reich
    @GilReich

    JustmeinAZ (View Comment):

    You made Instapundit!

    Cool! Thanks for telling me.

    • #41
  12. Gil Reich Member
    Gil Reich
    @GilReich

    Manny (View Comment):

    I hope you’re right. Praying.

    Did you mention the economy should still be very strong in 2020? It should be.

    I agree. I think by reelection day we will not be fighting trade wars and the economy will be doing well. 

    • #42
  13. Gil Reich Member
    Gil Reich
    @GilReich

    Mendel (View Comment):
    I don’t personally hold him responsible, because frankly I never expected him to deliver on any of these promises. Then again, I think Trump is a huge fraud who is completely oversold by his supporters (including those who claim to be deeply distrustful of him). At the same time, Trump has so far proven much better than WBush, and I will probably vote for him next time around. So take that as an endorsement or derision as you wish.

    I had low expectations too. Am I overselling him? Maybe  In 2 years he’s given me far more of what I want than any president since at least Reagan. Do I wish he were draining the swamp more. Sure  But the swamp ia fighting back, and ugly. Do I wish he kept his wall promise? Sure. But there’s been far more good than bad. 

    • #43
  14. Flicker Coolidge
    Flicker
    @Flicker

    Gil Reich

    The old rules still apply to everyone else. Unless you’re Trump, if you go Trump, you los

    Yes, Trump can avoid the rules because he never played by them and has no tarnished image to rejuvenate. Trump can be Trump because we all know that’s who he is. Even when he lies, he clear that he is lying for effect. People know all other politicians are lying covertly, the opposite of Trump who lies out loud and may do the right thing. Even Lindsay Graham can’t do a Trump despite all his recent gumption because everyone knows he rolled over for decades. And will again.

    Let’s call Trump a Putin-puppet racist rapist, compulsive liar, narcissistic conman who sexually desires his daughter, and is literally Hitler. Done. What else you got?…

    This will be especially true when more Americans fully understand things like the Steele Dossier scandal.

    There is a question why Trump won’t reveal the FISA warrants, and it could be because the 5 Eyes begged him not to – and he saw just how damaging it was — or, seeing that, it could be his own October surprise: when they start calling him a scumbag again in August and October, he may just decide to release the transcripts then, maybe during – gasp – another Joint Session, with all his provocative explanatory tweets ready and lined up to send. Who knows. But he’s not releasing them now for some reason, and I don’t think it’s fear or mercy.

    • #44
  15. Front Seat Cat Member
    Front Seat Cat
    @FrontSeatCat

    Gil – people are going to start revolting if this stupid gov. shutdown continues – when you have to go without money to pay your mortgage or buy food – game over.

    • #45
  16. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    Gil Reich (View Comment):
    Ok, but Repubs have known for a year that they were likely to lose the House in the midterms.

    No, they were told for a year – by the press and their (IMHO) deliberately skewed polls – they were going to lose.  Many did not seek re-election because they “knew” they were going to lose, or because they didn’t like Trump.

    I’m sure high-paying lobbying jobs had nothing to do with it.  (Has anyone looked to see what these former Republican House Reps are doing now?)

    • #46
  17. Petty Boozswha Inactive
    Petty Boozswha
    @PettyBoozswha

    I find your arguments unpersuasive. If we renominate Trump we will get our butts kicked, and deserve it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDgXuHEDJUk

    • #47
  18. EDISONPARKS Member
    EDISONPARKS
    @user_54742

    Petty Boozswha (View Comment):

    I find your arguments unpersuasive. If we renominate Trump we will get our butts kicked, and deserve it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDgXuHEDJUk

    I Concur ….. However, I had the identical thought in 2016.

    …. and there is always the possibility the (D)’s could to nominate another divisive HRC type.

    Although this time around the (D)’s are certain to have their “get out the vote” programs(wink, wink, nudge, nudge) turned up to 11.

    • #48
  19. CarolJoy, Above Top Secret Coolidge
    CarolJoy, Above Top Secret
    @CarolJoy

    thelonious (View Comment):

    As far as the rest of your points:

    #2. I agree things are going well but it’s not translating to higher approval ratings. His approval ratings should be in the 60’s but they’re still in the 40’s.

    #3 Reagan Dems are dying off. That well is running dry.

    #4. Sort of agree. Sort of disagree. You make a solid point. Still think Hillary was very flawed.

    #5. Those who wrestle in the mud with him get dirty.

    #6 Agree

    #7 Dems just reload with corrupt allies. They’ll be stronger now since they have the house.

    #8 The media is pretty fractured. People mainly go to media they agree with.

    #9 His timing might be bad. What happens if the economy slows down in 2020? When does the Mueller report come out? I’m sure the timing of the report is designed to come out at a really inopportune time.

    #10 The party is unified but party participation has been going down in both parties for years. Getting your base out is still important but not as big of a factor as it was in years past. Based on the mid terms the Republicans are losing in the suburbs now.

    These are decent comments. One thing  I would add, is the Dems know how to steal elections. The loss they and Hillary  suffered inside Michigan and Pennsylvania in Nov 2016 is a loss they will work hard to rectify. And believe me, they are aware that electronic voting systems can be controlled. Whichever party holds the Secretary of State position in those two states has the ability to “help” their side.

    • #49
  20. Bill Nelson Inactive
    Bill Nelson
    @BillNelson

    Western Chauvinist (View Comment):

    Mendel (View Comment):
    One reason conspicuously missing from this list is “he upheld his biggest promises to repeal Obamacare and build a wall”.

    Do you believe Trump would have signed the Obamacare repeal bill McCain torpedoed? Do you believe he’d accept 5 billion to “build the wall” and try to start construction?

    I don’t think it’s fair to assign these as Trump’s failures.

    Republicans had the house and senate for 2 years. Trump didn’t push the wall, and did not make it seem all that important.

     

    • #50
  21. thelonious Member
    thelonious
    @thelonious

    CarolJoy, Above Top Secret (View Comment):

    thelonious (View Comment):

    As far as the rest of your points:

    #2. I agree things are going well but it’s not translating to higher approval ratings. His approval ratings should be in the 60’s but they’re still in the 40’s.

    #3 Reagan Dems are dying off. That well is running dry.

    #4. Sort of agree. Sort of disagree. You make a solid point. Still think Hillary was very flawed.

    #5. Those who wrestle in the mud with him get dirty.

    #6 Agree

    #7 Dems just reload with corrupt allies. They’ll be stronger now since they have the house.

    #8 The media is pretty fractured. People mainly go to media they agree with.

    #9 His timing might be bad. What happens if the economy slows down in 2020? When does the Mueller report come out? I’m sure the timing of the report is designed to come out at a really inopportune time.

    #10 The party is unified but party participation has been going down in both parties for years. Getting your base out is still important but not as big of a factor as it was in years past. Based on the mid terms the Republicans are losing in the suburbs now.

    These are decent comments. 

    Man I felt like I was on fire when I wrote this. This is the best punditry you’ll ever get from me and it’s “decent”. At this point I’ll take it!  Thank You.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    • #51
  22. Manny Coolidge
    Manny
    @Manny

    Bill Nelson (View Comment):

    Western Chauvinist (View Comment):

    Mendel (View Comment):
    One reason conspicuously missing from this list is “he upheld his biggest promises to repeal Obamacare and build a wall”.

    Do you believe Trump would have signed the Obamacare repeal bill McCain torpedoed? Do you believe he’d accept 5 billion to “build the wall” and try to start construction?

    I don’t think it’s fair to assign these as Trump’s failures.

    Republicans had the house and senate for 2 years. Trump didn’t push the wall, and did not make it seem all that important.

     

    Yeah, but not all Republicans were on board.  I’ve grown to believe Paul Ryan was a hindrance.  And then there were the NeverTrumpers in the Senate.

    • #52
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