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Hole Theory
B-17G 43-38172 of the 8th AF 398th BG 601st BS which was damaged on a bombing mission over Cologne, Germany, on 15 October 1944 (Only the bombardier was killed.)
The B-17 was one helluva of an airplane. Like the old Timex ad used to say, it could take a lickin’ and keep right on tickin’.
Engineers and aviation buffs to this day marvel at how much damage a Flying Fortress could take and still fly back to their home bases in Britain. During the war Boeing dispatched designers to look at these damaged wonders and make them even better. To do that though it took some counter-intuitive thinking.
If you look at a shot up airplane you might come to the conclusion that the areas that took the most damage were the areas that needed the most reinforcement. But just the opposite is true.
Because they were examining planes that actually made it back, the damage observed was actually the least vulnerable area of the aircraft. You could make these areas look like swiss cheese and the damned things would still fly. It was the undamaged areas that were the most vulnerable. Hit the planes there and they didn’t come back. It was the unobservable damage that meant everything.
(NBCNews.com)
Today, NBC News ran with an “exclusive” that they claim bolsters their case that President Trump’s statements about terrorists sneaking across our unsecured southern border is simply not true. Only six people that were detained by the Customs and Border Patrol in the first half of 2018 had their names show up in the nation’s terrorist database, says reporter Julia Ainsley.
All well and good. But like the holes in the B-17s, the problem isn’t in what you can observe, it’s in what you can’t observe. The terrorists we do catch at the southern border aren’t the problem, it’s the ones that slipped in unobserved.
9/11 wasn’t caused by what we knew, it was caused by what we didn’t know. And we’re still looking at the wrong holes and coming to the wrong conclusions.
Published in Immigration
My guess is that they didn’t find much of the bombardier.
The lesson being that bombadiers are not requisite for a bomber’s survival.
There are several B-17 you can still fly:
https://www.eaa.org/eaa/events-and-experiences/aluminum-overcast-eaa-b-17-bomber-tour/b-17-aluminum-overcast-tour-stops
http://yankeeairmuseum.org/fly/
https://www.azcaf.org/plane/b17g-flying-fortress/
https://b17texasraiders.org/index.php/texas-raiders/rides-tours/schedule
So true, @ejhill. Why is this so hard for them to understand? Oh, I know–it doesn’t fit their agenda . . .
Waiting for the takeoff roll in the CAF B-17G Sentimental Journey, Truax Field, Madison WI Wednesday Sept 5, 2001.
I only got to sit in the Bombardier position for takeoff, not landing. And they wouldn’t anyone go back to my dad’s tailgunner position.
I’ll bet the bombardiers had a different opinion.
Briefly.
Today’s aircraft can take some damage too.
F-15 with one wing.
Sometimes I think our enemies must marvel the amount of damage we as a nation take and still keep flying. I also think that the election of Donald Trump is the equivalent of sending the Boeing engineers over to look at a damaged B-17. Enough people decided to think outside the box. The results of that decision are looking pretty good right about now.
Like the analogy. It’s not only aircraft–much, much more.
When the B-17 was being used operationally, the weight of the tail gunner was supposed to be 110 pounds. Maybe they worry the average 21st century American would make the Fort tail heavy. Being that far back from the c-g it probably has a heck of a moment arm.
EJ,
Incredible! You still possess your cerebral cortex and can think! The left has been giving us all a brain-ectomy for so long I wasn’t sure. This is like someone looking at Israel’s wall and remarking how few terrorist incidents there are so who needs the wall. If you go back in time and see how many terrorist incidents there were before the wall then you get the idea.
Actually, most of the news media has already had their brain-ectomy so we shouldn’t expect much from them.
Regards,
Jim
A friend was a finite-element modeling guy at his manufacturing company. They get called in to tell the engineer why some plastic latch for a printer cover that he designed is breaking in the field.
The engineers were always trying to fix these problems by beefing up the failing part. But the thicker the plastic latch, the worse the problem got. Phil would patiently explain that to make the part last longer, they need to make it thinner. It’s not that it wasn’t strong enough. It’s that it wasn’t weak enough.
Somehow the B-17 story reminded me of that.
In 1996 I was able to purchase (~$550) a flight and actually take the controls for about 15 minutes. Since then, insurance regulations do not allow purchased flights ($409-449) to manipulate the controls. As an EAA member, I’ve flown it twice (for free) during repositioning flights and now have about 1 hour of actual B-17 control time. It’s very heavy on the (non-boosted) controls.
I’ve never been jealous of another member. Until now. I hate you.
On a past conversation, we were asked “name something about yourself that is special…” I submitted, flying the B-17, Ford Tri-motor, and the Spirit of St. Louis replica. @bossmongo said to me “you win,” although since then I’d rate Boss Mongo’s experiences much, much higher!
@vectorman On the other hand, I have piloted a Goodyear airship. I’m “blimp worthy.”
I got nothing.
I’ve ridden in Yankee Lady. Helluva flight.
The A-10 is even more robust.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7JM82fa5ZY
Does anyone know how we can, with any accuracy, have the pretense to know how many illegal immigrants enter the USA each year? Visa overstays I expect we know. But how do we account for people who cross the borders illegally?
Skip,
A wing and a prayer. Sounds right.
Regards,
Jim
Yabbut, they don’t even let you go back there when it’s on the ground – not that I’d probably fit.
After the army, Dad played football at UW on the “under 150 pound” league (AKA “sprint” football). Used to be a big-10 sport, now I think it’s pretty much confined to the Ivy league, if it’s even played there anymore.
An essay my dad write, about the view from the tailgun position:
http://ricochet.com/434254/archives/beauty-at-twenty-thousand-feet/
We’ve been talking airplanes but that was the main thrust of the post. We simply don’t know. The numbers we’ve bandied about for decades are only estimates. How do you count something that you don’t see?
Estimates range from 11M (DHS) to 12M (Pew) to 22M (PLOS One.) Liberals immediately worked hard to get that last number discredited.
This is a classic example of selection bias. They were using a sample that had a systematic bias because they only looked at the planes that made it back. It shows that being practical still requires us to be familiar with abstract, theoretical principles because they can have quite the impact. As our research director at work likes to say, it’s not the size of the pot of chili that matters but the make up of the spoon you use to take out your portion.
I’m surprised I’m the first to mention this but it makes sense since I’m a survey researcher.
EJ & Bereket,
Liberals claim to believe in science. Yes, like a witch doctor believes in medicine. They will twist any data set that is available to match their narrative. Selection bias? No, I’d make that selection fraud.
Regards,
Jim
I’m writing about Goodyear’s Houston Blimp Base as a chapter in a book about forgotten Houston landmarks. Not that that compares to flying in Goodyear blimp.
Are anchor babies counted in those numbers ? From my experience, the estimates of the illegals having crossed our southern border need to have the number residing here increased by a factor of 2 or 3 to account for their children born here.
Children born in US are citizens.