I Got Your Shutdown Right Here!

 

I loved the Oval Office drama with Don, Chuck, and Nancy. I even enjoyed filling in imaginary speech bubbles above Mike’s head. While all the players in politics and media want to run this “government shutdown” hype train, it is mostly hype.

Congress arranges the discretionary budget, which is about one-third of annual federal spending, into twelve standard annual appropriations. Just to be clear on the current state of the 12 discretionary budget appropriations:

Five of twelve regular appropriations are already authorized. None of those will be subject to “shutdown:”

Defense was consolidated with Labor/HHS/Education, signed into law as Pub.L.115-245.

Energy and Water appropriations act was consolidated with the Legislative Branch, and Military-Construction-Veterans Affairs appropriations, signed into law as Pub.L.115-244.

Agriculture is being considered with Finance and General Government, Interior, and Transportation/HUD. It is being talked about as the “Farm Bill.” These 4 are likely to pass.

This leaves three regular appropriations standing alone:

  • Commerce/Justice/Science
  • Homeland Security
  • State/Foreign Operations

These three are what is likely left to “shut down.” The old folks are getting their checks, Medicare and Medicaid payments will be made, the military are getting paid, the VA is fully funded, as is military construction, education… But Bob Mueller and his minions might lose their ability to run the charge card and won’t get paid until the Commerce/Justice/Science appropriation passes.

The House and Senate could certainly choose to make the “crisis” as big as possible if they refused to pass the “Farm Bill” without the other remaining appropriations. That, however, does not appear to be in any legislator’s interest. So, we will likely get a limited “shutdown” of a limited set of agencies and programs. Many of the Justice and Homeland Security positions will be “essential personnel,” so they will show up for work and may have a paycheck come two weeks late.

Since President Trump does not want to make the American people feel the Swamp’s pain, he likely will not have the national parks and monuments shut down and barricaded, as Obama did. Indeed, we saw the difference between an Obama shutdown and a Trump shutdown in January 2018:

The government shutdown didn’t spoil the experience of visitors this weekend to the World War II Memorial on the National Mall.

The open-air monument, which President Barack Obama barricaded off during the opening days of the 2013 shutdown in what Republicans said was the “weaponization” of a government funding crisis, is open to all this year as part of the Trump administration’s determination to do a shutdown the right way — if such a thing is possible.

President Trump’s top aides said the open-air parks of national parks and monuments would remain open, and be patrolled by police and rangers as usual, though buildings would be shut, bathrooms might not be cleaned and trash wouldn’t be collected.

For all the wintery bluster, the real forecast is for little more than a tempest in a teapot. If you are still worried, I suggest the following by Joanna Streetly:

It is a lovely pen and ink drawing, with sufficient white space to let you color it with pencils, markers, or crayons—whatever you have at hand while anxiously or joyously riding out the Trump Bigly Shutdown of 2018. If that won’t do, you can always do a little dance:

Oh, and look, there is even a theme song available, perhaps for those who insist on beating their heads against the desk.

https://youtu.be/xWy2ejfX0qI

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  1. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    Mendel (View Comment):
    A national ID/registration system would be very expedient, and so politically impossible that our persuasive energies are likely better spent elsewhere.

    Yep, we have it, and your ID number is called “Social Security”.

    • #31
  2. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Stad (View Comment):

    Mendel (View Comment):
    A national ID/registration system would be very expedient, and so politically impossible that our persuasive energies are likely better spent elsewhere.

    Yep, we have it, and your ID number is called “Social Security”.

    Well, then, I guess we have the immigration problem licked. Next topic, please!

    • #32
  3. Mendel Inactive
    Mendel
    @Mendel

    Stad (View Comment):

    Mendel (View Comment):
    A national ID/registration system would be very expedient, and so politically impossible that our persuasive energies are likely better spent elsewhere.

    Yep, we have it, and your ID number is called “Social Security”.

    The Social Security card is miles apart from what we’re talking about here.

    There’s a big difference between a flimsy piece of paper with a 9-digit number entered on a typewriter that’s issued once per lifetime (and that the police probably can’t call up on a roadside stop to tell if you’re in the country legally) and a national driver’s license-style plastic photo ID card that you have to update in person everytime you switch your residence.

    • #33
  4. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Mendel (View Comment):
    There’s a big difference between a flimsy piece of paper with a 9-digit number entered on a typewriter that’s issued once per lifetime (and that the police probably can’t call up on a roadside stop to tell if you’re in the country legally) and a national driver’s license-style plastic photo ID card that you have to update in person everytime you switch your residence.

    It’s the difference between the first day in Obedience School and actually graduating from Obedience School, with a certificate you can frame and hang on the wall. 

    • #34
  5. Mendel Inactive
    Mendel
    @Mendel

    The Reticulator (View Comment):

    Mendel (View Comment):
    There’s a big difference between a flimsy piece of paper with a 9-digit number entered on a typewriter that’s issued once per lifetime (and that the police probably can’t call up on a roadside stop to tell if you’re in the country legally) and a national driver’s license-style plastic photo ID card that you have to update in person everytime you switch your residence.

    It’s the difference between the first day in Obedience School and actually graduating from Obedience School, with a certificate you can frame and hang on the wall.

    What does this comment even mean?

    I’ve lived 2/3 of my life in the US and 1/3 in Europe with national IDs/registration. There’s a huge and meaningful difference between the SS system and a European-style registration. Equating the two – whether directly or through puzzling metaphors – has little utility.

    • #35
  6. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Mendel (View Comment):

    What does this comment even mean?

    I’ve lived 2/3 of my life in the US and 1/3 in Europe with national IDs/registration. There’s a huge and meaningful difference between the SS system and a European-style registration. Equating the two – whether directly or through puzzling metaphors – has little utility.

    Utility?? It’s like the Book of Revelation. Only the insiders can understand. 

    • #36
  7. Saint Augustine Member
    Saint Augustine
    @SaintAugustine

    The Reticulator (View Comment):

    Mendel (View Comment):

    What does this comment even mean?

    I’ve lived 2/3 of my life in the US and 1/3 in Europe with national IDs/registration. There’s a huge and meaningful difference between the SS system and a European-style registration. Equating the two – whether directly or through puzzling metaphors – has little utility.

    Utility?? It’s like the Book of Revelation. Only the insiders can understand.

    I think I’m an insider, and I’ve had my share of difficulty understanding Revelation.

    • #37
  8. Nanda Panjandrum Member
    Nanda Panjandrum
    @

    Saint Augustine (View Comment):

    The Reticulator (View Comment):

    Mendel (View Comment):

    What does this comment even mean?

    I’ve lived 2/3 of my life in the US and 1/3 in Europe with national IDs/registration. There’s a huge and meaningful difference between the SS system and a European-style registration. Equating the two – whether directly or through puzzling metaphors – has little utility.

    Utility?? It’s like the Book of Revelation. Only the insiders can understand.

    I think I’m an insider, and I’ve had my share of difficulty understanding Revelation.

     

    Hello, Augie! Context is something we don’t entirely have for this – or much of the situation under discussion – or so it seems. :-)

     

     

    • #38
  9. Saint Augustine Member
    Saint Augustine
    @SaintAugustine

    Nanda Panjandrum (View Comment):

    Saint Augustine (View Comment):

    The Reticulator (View Comment):

    Utility?? It’s like the Book of Revelation. Only the insiders can understand.

    I think I’m an insider, and I’ve had my share of difficulty understanding Revelation.

    Hello, Augie! Context is something we don’t entirely have for this – or much of the situation under discussion – or so it seems. :-)

    Speaking of context, was this referring to Revelation?  The Godawa Part II podcast, courtesy of Ricochet’s @acgleason, can help a lot.

    (Assuming Godawa is right.  I’d like to be a good Berean and check the Greek for myself sometime.)

    • #39
  10. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Saint Augustine (View Comment):

    The Reticulator (View Comment):

    Mendel (View Comment):

    What does this comment even mean?

    I’ve lived 2/3 of my life in the US and 1/3 in Europe with national IDs/registration. There’s a huge and meaningful difference between the SS system and a European-style registration. Equating the two – whether directly or through puzzling metaphors – has little utility.

    Utility?? It’s like the Book of Revelation. Only the insiders can understand.

    I think I’m an insider, and I’ve had my share of difficulty understanding Revelation.

    And not just Revelation.

    I guess we’ve come a long way since King David was punished for taking a census, and what was wrong with it didn’t even need explaining. (And his punishment was for 70,000 people who were not King David to die.)

    Later on, conservatives and liberals alike were horrified by the European practice of having to register your residency wherever you moved. And they didn’t need to explain, but only expressed gratitude that we didn’t live in such a country.

    And liberals, at least, were horrified by South Africa’s passport laws. We always thought something like that could never happen here.

    And the time when your passport indicating whether your nationality was Polish, Ukrainian, or Jewish could cost you your life, or could save it, or both, was viewed as a dark period in a dark century’s history.

    That was about the time that our government promised that Social Security numbers would not be used for identification purposes. Now we’ve forgotten why it needed to make that promise.

    And in other places, to make sure people didn’t lose their identification, their ID numbers were tattooed onto their bodies. People did attempt to explain what was repugnant about that.  I wonder if anyone would still understand.

    Now we see that it’s just a matter of getting used to it. Take baby steps first, and pretty soon you’ll be trained well enough to accept the whole works.

    • #40
  11. Phil Turmel Inactive
    Phil Turmel
    @PhilTurmel

    The Real ID act was the federalist solution to this problem.  Let the states do it, with a federal standard for what is acceptable for federal and interstate purposes.  It covers all the bases, using the full faith and credit clause (appropriately, IMHO).  It passed back when Democrats hadn’t fully endorsed the open borders movement.  Full implementation keeps getting delayed by executive order because some states (here’s looking at you, Cali!) have backslid on excluding illegal immigrants.  Can’t have people kept off airplanes because their drivers licenses aren’t compliant, can we?

    The existence of the Real ID act contributes to Democrats’ opposition to ID verification at the polls, because it will (eventually) preclude illegal immigrant voting, not just voting by legions of the deceased.

    • #41
  12. Clifford A. Brown Member
    Clifford A. Brown
    @CliffordBrown

    The President has a self-deprecating sense of humor!

    H.R. 2, the 2018 “farm bill” passed is not the appropriations bill. It is the policy and subsidies bill, HR.2.

    Today, President Trump signed H.R. 2, the Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018 (the 2018 Farm Bill) into law. After the signing, House Agriculture Committee Chairman K. Michael Conaway (TX-11) issued the following remarks:

    “With President Trump signing the farm bill today, America keeps faith with those hard-working farm and ranch families who put food on our tables and clothes on our backs. Because of the support of the president, Sec. Perdue and a Republican Congress, we were able to deliver a new farm bill in the same year that the legislation was first introduced, which marks a first in nearly 30 years. I’m proud of this bill and I’m honored to have served as chairman throughout this process. I’m thankful to all those who worked to help make today’s enactment of the farm bill possible.”

    • #42
  13. CarolJoy, Above Top Secret Coolidge
    CarolJoy, Above Top Secret
    @CarolJoy

    The Reticulator (View Comment):

    Saint Augustine (View Comment):

    The Reticulator (View Comment):

    Mendel (View Comment):

    What does this comment even mean?

    I’ve lived 2/3 of my life in the US and 1/3 in Europe with national IDs/registration. There’s a huge and meaningful difference between the SS system and a European-style registration. Equating the two – whether directly or through puzzling metaphors – has little utility.

    Utility?? It’s like the Book of Revelation. Only the insiders can understand.

    I think I’m an insider, and I’ve had my share of difficulty understanding Revelation.

    And not just Revelation.

    I guess we’ve come a long way since King David was punished for taking a census, and what was wrong with it didn’t even need explaining. (And his punishment was for 70,000 people who were not King David to die.)

    Later on, conservatives and liberals alike were horrifiedSNIP

    And liberals, at least, were horrified by South Africa’s passport laws. We always thought something like that could never happen here.

    And the time when your passport indicating whether your nationality was Polish, Ukrainian, or Jewish could cost you your life, or could save it, or both, was viewed as a dark period in a dark century’s history.

    That was about the time that our government promised that Social Security numbers would not be used for identification purposes. Now we’ve forgotten why it needed to make that promise.

    And in other places, to make sure people didn’t lose their identification, their ID numbers were tattooed onto their bodies. People did attempt to explain what was repugnant about that. I wonder if anyone would still understand.

    Now we see that it’s just a matter of getting used to it. Take baby steps first, and pretty soon you’ll be trained well enough to accept the whole works.

    I am missing something. I guess I really am. Are we about to be tattooed? Are we somehow to be identified by a card that will allow us to carry identification even if we don’t drive?

    If this is so intrusive, where were you when we all had to start being finger printed in order to get a drvier’s license?

    As someone who spent the last three years of my health related employment working with goddess knows who, as after all, it is intrusive to expect people from foreign nations to be identified, I welcome the idea of such.

    Especially given that far too often during those last three years, my clients were tolerant people who thought the foreign born person working inside their home was actually a US citizen, and also thought that the employee was using their real name. Only after their retirement monies were appropriated by said foreigners did these families  wake up to the idea that maybe it is not ridiculous or fascist for people to be identified while being accepted into the new land of one’s choosing.

    • #43
  14. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    CarolJoy, Above Top Secret (View Comment):
    I am missing something. I guess I really am. Are we about to be tattooed?

    Not yet. That comes later. First we have to get used to this step. 

    • #44
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