I Got Your Shutdown Right Here!

 

I loved the Oval Office drama with Don, Chuck, and Nancy. I even enjoyed filling in imaginary speech bubbles above Mike’s head. While all the players in politics and media want to run this “government shutdown” hype train, it is mostly hype.

Congress arranges the discretionary budget, which is about one-third of annual federal spending, into twelve standard annual appropriations. Just to be clear on the current state of the 12 discretionary budget appropriations:

Five of twelve regular appropriations are already authorized. None of those will be subject to “shutdown:”

Defense was consolidated with Labor/HHS/Education, signed into law as Pub.L.115-245.

Energy and Water appropriations act was consolidated with the Legislative Branch, and Military-Construction-Veterans Affairs appropriations, signed into law as Pub.L.115-244.

Agriculture is being considered with Finance and General Government, Interior, and Transportation/HUD. It is being talked about as the “Farm Bill.” These 4 are likely to pass.

This leaves three regular appropriations standing alone:

  • Commerce/Justice/Science
  • Homeland Security
  • State/Foreign Operations

These three are what is likely left to “shut down.” The old folks are getting their checks, Medicare and Medicaid payments will be made, the military are getting paid, the VA is fully funded, as is military construction, education… But Bob Mueller and his minions might lose their ability to run the charge card and won’t get paid until the Commerce/Justice/Science appropriation passes.

The House and Senate could certainly choose to make the “crisis” as big as possible if they refused to pass the “Farm Bill” without the other remaining appropriations. That, however, does not appear to be in any legislator’s interest. So, we will likely get a limited “shutdown” of a limited set of agencies and programs. Many of the Justice and Homeland Security positions will be “essential personnel,” so they will show up for work and may have a paycheck come two weeks late.

Since President Trump does not want to make the American people feel the Swamp’s pain, he likely will not have the national parks and monuments shut down and barricaded, as Obama did. Indeed, we saw the difference between an Obama shutdown and a Trump shutdown in January 2018:

The government shutdown didn’t spoil the experience of visitors this weekend to the World War II Memorial on the National Mall.

The open-air monument, which President Barack Obama barricaded off during the opening days of the 2013 shutdown in what Republicans said was the “weaponization” of a government funding crisis, is open to all this year as part of the Trump administration’s determination to do a shutdown the right way — if such a thing is possible.

President Trump’s top aides said the open-air parks of national parks and monuments would remain open, and be patrolled by police and rangers as usual, though buildings would be shut, bathrooms might not be cleaned and trash wouldn’t be collected.

For all the wintery bluster, the real forecast is for little more than a tempest in a teapot. If you are still worried, I suggest the following by Joanna Streetly:

It is a lovely pen and ink drawing, with sufficient white space to let you color it with pencils, markers, or crayons—whatever you have at hand while anxiously or joyously riding out the Trump Bigly Shutdown of 2018. If that won’t do, you can always do a little dance:

Oh, and look, there is even a theme song available, perhaps for those who insist on beating their heads against the desk.

https://youtu.be/xWy2ejfX0qI

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  1. ST Inactive
    ST
    @SimonTemplar

    I’m thinking shut down Justice forever and rebuild that [expletive].

    • #1
  2. ST Inactive
    ST
    @SimonTemplar

    And Schumer’s posture is scary, horrifying almost.

    • #2
  3. I Walton Member
    I Walton
    @IWalton

    Good summary of the phony issue of shut down, thanks.

    I have been very skeptical of a wall, e.g. drugs can’t be stopped in any way from penetrating our border, we still have two coasts and most illegals just overstay their tourist and student visas and have been doing so forever.  E-verify is the only way to stop the chronic entry of illegals.  However, after the spectacle of the invasion over the last months it’s clear that there is a role for a wall.  A wall makes this kind of invasion more difficult, the chronic problem not so easy but most of all it tells our Southern friends that they’re welcome to apply legally but not just sneak in, that free and easy entry is over.  We’re back in charge.  Expensive in the short term, but clearly necessary.  

     Every country I’ve ever lived in or visited has e-verify, (a bunch) and have had it since well before there was such a thing as “e” with which to verify.  It’s called cedula, or national id, or citizenship card.  It’s pretty universal and it works.  

    • #3
  4. Clifford A. Brown Contributor
    Clifford A. Brown
    @CliffordBrown

    I Walton (View Comment):

    Good summary of the phony issue of shut down, thanks.

    I have been very skeptical of a wall, e.g. drugs can’t be stopped in any way from penetrating our border, we still have two coasts and most illegals just overstay their tourist and student visas and have been doing so forever. E-verify is the only way to stop the chronic entry of illegals. However, after the spectacle of the invasion over the last months it’s clear that there is a role for a wall. A wall makes this kind of invasion more difficult, the chronic problem not so easy but most of all it tells our Southern friends that they’re welcome to apply legally but not just sneak in, that free and easy entry is over. We’re back in charge. Expensive in the short term, but clearly necessary.

    Every country I’ve ever lived in or visited has e-verify, (a bunch) and have had it since well before there was such a thing as “e” with which to verify. It’s called cedula, or national id, or citizenship card. It’s pretty universal and it works.

    Roger all.

    • #4
  5. She Member
    She
    @She

    Thanks for this entertaining and bigly informative post.  I’ve noticed, actually, that during the several “government shutdowns” we’ve endured over the past many years, life seems to go on pretty much as normal.  There’s a lesson in there somewhere.

    And, a reel!  (Yes, where I went to school, they taught us such things.)  I’ve said before here, many times, I do love a man in a kilt.  I consider it just another sort of uniform.

    • #5
  6. Clifford A. Brown Contributor
    Clifford A. Brown
    @CliffordBrown

    She (View Comment):

    Thanks for this entertaining and bigly informative post. I’ve noticed, actually, that during the several “government shutdowns” we’ve endured over the past many years, life seems to go on pretty much as normal. There’s a lesson in there somewhere.

    And, a reel! (Yes, where I went to school, they taught us such things.) I’ve said before here, many times, I do love a man in a kilt. I consider it just another sort of uniform.

    You are welcome. I’ve noticed much the same. Discovering the dance video was a serendipity. As to men in kilts, pro tip fellas: if you are seated with a row of local dignitaries, facing the audience of a ceremony, don’t be man-spreading. Trust me.

    • #6
  7. Kevin Schulte Member
    Kevin Schulte
    @KevinSchulte

    ST (View Comment):

    And Schumer’s posture is scary, horrifying almost.

    Like a fricken spider.

    • #7
  8. Kevin Schulte Member
    Kevin Schulte
    @KevinSchulte

    Clifford A. Brown (View Comment):

    She (View Comment):

    Thanks for this entertaining and bigly informative post. I’ve noticed, actually, that during the several “government shutdowns” we’ve endured over the past many years, life seems to go on pretty much as normal. There’s a lesson in there somewhere.

    And, a reel! (Yes, where I went to school, they taught us such things.) I’ve said before here, many times, I do love a man in a kilt. I consider it just another sort of uniform.

    You are welcome. I’ve noticed much the same. Discovering the dance video was a serendipity. As to men in kilts, pro tip fellas: if you are seated with a row of local dignitaries, facing the audience of a ceremony, don’t be man-spreading. Trust me.

    LOL

    • #8
  9. Mendel Inactive
    Mendel
    @Mendel

    Nice summary and putting things in perspective.

    In a sense, the tiff between Trump, Schumer, and Pelosi was reminiscent of the old insult about academics: their fights are so vicious because the stakes are so low. In this case, it’s easy for all sides to puff their chests since the major sources of pain during a shutdown are already off the table.

    The bigger problem I have is that building a wall is a long-term project that will take more than a few minutes of reality TV-style wrangling to put up. The more serious opposition to the wall is not Nancy and Chuck but the dozen or two nameless Republicans who also don’t want a wall but aren’t willing to face off in the Oval Office.

    And even if some funding gets approved this time, that still doesn’t automatically translate into an actual wall or any enhanced border protection. Those tangible outcomes require years of boring project management and oversight, the types of efforts that neither our president nor our Congress nor our media nor our electorate is any good at.

    TL;DR: I’ll believe in the wall when I see it. Until then, this is all handwaving.

    • #9
  10. Mendel Inactive
    Mendel
    @Mendel

    I Walton (View Comment):

    Good summary of the phony issue of shut down, thanks.

    I have been very skeptical of a wall, e.g. drugs can’t be stopped in any way from penetrating our border, we still have two coasts and most illegals just overstay their tourist and student visas and have been doing so forever. E-verify is the only way to stop the chronic entry of illegals. However, after the spectacle of the invasion over the last months it’s clear that there is a role for a wall. A wall makes this kind of invasion more difficult, the chronic problem not so easy but most of all it tells our Southern friends that they’re welcome to apply legally but not just sneak in, that free and easy entry is over. We’re back in charge. Expensive in the short term, but clearly necessary.

    Every country I’ve ever lived in or visited has e-verify, (a bunch) and have had it since well before there was such a thing as “e” with which to verify. It’s called cedula, or national id, or citizenship card. It’s pretty universal and it works.

    With you up until the “national ID” part. That’s probably a non-starter in the US.

    • #10
  11. ChefSly - Super Kit Member
    ChefSly - Super Kit
    @MrAmy

    Mendel (View Comment):
    With you up until the “national ID” part

    We have one – that works really poorly

    • #11
  12. I Walton Member
    I Walton
    @IWalton

    Mendel (View Comment):

    I Walton (View Comment):

    Good summary of the phony issue of shut down, thanks.

    I have been very skeptical of a wall, e.g. drugs can’t be stopped in any way from penetrating our border, we still have two coasts and most illegals just overstay their tourist and student visas and have been doing so forever. E-verify is the only way to stop the chronic entry of illegals. However, after the spectacle of the invasion over the last months it’s clear that there is a role for a wall. A wall makes this kind of invasion more difficult, the chronic problem not so easy but most of all it tells our Southern friends that they’re welcome to apply legally but not just sneak in, that free and easy entry is over. We’re back in charge. Expensive in the short term, but clearly necessary.

    Every country I’ve ever lived in or visited has e-verify, (a bunch) and have had it since well before there was such a thing as “e” with which to verify. It’s called cedula, or national id, or citizenship card. It’s pretty universal and it works.

    With you up until the “national ID” part. That’s probably a non-starter in the US.

    Then give up because without it there is no border control nor can there be unless we cease to accept foreign businessmen, tourists and foreign students.  Never preemptively capitulate.  Republicans seem to think that if a poll last week didn’t support some good idea, it should be dropped.  Even good and necessary ideas have to be sold over time, like any consumer good.    There was a time way back, when some conservatives opposed a government required I.D. as a threat to our liberty.  The argument, if it was ever valid, no longer holds water.  The government already knows everything about us through google, facebook, SS and NSA,  credit bureaus and all those places have and require more information than would  a national I.D.  Democrats oppose I.D. because it makes voter fraud more difficult and would stop illegal immigration.   What would be a reason for a normal person to oppose it?

    • #12
  13. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    Clifford A. Brown: The old folks are getting their checks, Medicare and Medicaid payments will be made, the military are getting paid, the VA is fully funded, as is military construction, education

    This is one of the biggest Media/Democrat lies, that “the old folks won’t get their social security checks”, or “our military will walk off the job if they’re not paid”.  Lies, lies, lies.  I’ve seen many estimates as to what percent of the Federal government keeps functioning during a shutdown, and none of the numbers was below 50%.  This is because so many government programs and agencies are deemed “essential services”, a government shutdown has no impact on them.

    As a Federal employee back then (forgot what year, maybe 2012 or 2014), I would have been laid off as part of a government shutdown – yet I fully supported it.  So go ahead, President Trump.  Shut it down if you have to.  Get the wall built . . .

    • #13
  14. DonG Coolidge
    DonG
    @DonG

    Why not a supplemental appropriation like they do for hurricanes and forest fires?  Pass $20B bill in the House and send it to the Senate.  Make some Democrat(s) do a standup filibuster to prevent cloture.  We can all sit around and watch like the fireplace channel on cable.  I believe the “threat of filibuster” excuse to be just an excuse for inaction. 

    Of course, the best idea is a law allowing homeland security to used seized items (property and money) to spend on the wall.  That way the cartels pay for the wall.  The bill for that is languishing (see here).

    • #14
  15. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Mendel (View Comment):

    I Walton (View Comment):

    Good summary of the phony issue of shut down, thanks.

    I have been very skeptical of a wall, e.g. drugs can’t be stopped in any way from penetrating our border, we still have two coasts and most illegals just overstay their tourist and student visas and have been doing so forever. E-verify is the only way to stop the chronic entry of illegals. However, after the spectacle of the invasion over the last months it’s clear that there is a role for a wall. A wall makes this kind of invasion more difficult, the chronic problem not so easy but most of all it tells our Southern friends that they’re welcome to apply legally but not just sneak in, that free and easy entry is over. We’re back in charge. Expensive in the short term, but clearly necessary.

    Every country I’ve ever lived in or visited has e-verify, (a bunch) and have had it since well before there was such a thing as “e” with which to verify. It’s called cedula, or national id, or citizenship card. It’s pretty universal and it works.

    With you up until the “national ID” part. That’s probably a non-starter in the US.

    Twenty years ago the Real ID system that we now have would have been called a non-starter.  

    • #15
  16. drlorentz Member
    drlorentz
    @drlorentz

    ChefSly – Super Kit (View Comment):

    Mendel (View Comment):
    With you up until the “national ID” part

    We have one – that works really poorly

    Older SS cards contain the following statement at the bottom:

    For Social Security and tax purposes — not for identification.

    Promises, promises.

    • #16
  17. Gwen Brown Lincoln
    Gwen Brown
    @Gwen Brown

    Clifford A. Brown (View Comment):

    She (View Comment):

    Thanks for this entertaining and bigly informative post. I’ve noticed, actually, that during the several “government shutdowns” we’ve endured over the past many years, life seems to go on pretty much as normal. There’s a lesson in there somewhere.

    And, a reel! (Yes, where I went to school, they taught us such things.) I’ve said before here, many times, I do love a man in a kilt. I consider it just another sort of uniform.

    You are welcome. I’ve noticed much the same. Discovering the dance video was a serendipity. As to men in kilts, pro tip fellas: if you are seated with a row of local dignitaries, facing the audience of a ceremony, don’t be man-spreading. Trust me.

     

    • #17
  18. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    DonG (View Comment):
    Of course, the best idea is a law allowing homeland security to used seized items (property and money) to spend on the wall

    Items seized from whom?  This sounds uncomfortably close to civil assets forfeiture. Seized property should probably go to a general fund rather than to some branch of government that can develop a conflict of interest.  

    • #18
  19. Clifford A. Brown Contributor
    Clifford A. Brown
    @CliffordBrown

    Stad (View Comment):

    Clifford A. Brown: The old folks are getting their checks, Medicare and Medicaid payments will be made, the military are getting paid, the VA is fully funded, as is military construction, education

    This is one of the biggest Media/Democrat lies, that “the old folks won’t get their social security checks”, or “our military will walk off the job if they’re not paid”. Lies, lies, lies. I’ve seen many estimates as to what percent of the Federal government keeps functioning during a shutdown, and none of the numbers was below 50%. This is because so many government programs and agencies are deemed “essential services”, a government shutdown has no impact on them.

    As a Federal employee back then (forgot what year, maybe 2012 or 2014), I would have been laid off as part of a government shutdown – yet I fully supported it. So go ahead, President Trump. Shut it down if you have to. Get the wall built . . .

    Yes, you have nicely recapped the standard script response. Indeed, I heard Sean Hannity riff it when I dipped into his radio show today. 

    AND this time is different because, for once, we actually have many parts of the federal government funded for the fiscal year. I am no fan of McConnell and Ryan/McCarthy, yet, they actually did a fairly good job on the fundamental task of passing annual appropriations this time. 

    The script this time should be claiming full credit for this and for all the good people who will have no disruption to their family finances, be they military families, senior citizens, or the single mom scraping by and depending on Medicaid related healthcare for herself and her children. All these people are not political hostages this time.

    • #19
  20. CarolJoy Coolidge
    CarolJoy
    @CarolJoy

    I Walton (View Comment):

    Good summary of the phony issue of shut down, thanks.

    I have been very skeptical of a wall, e.g. drugs can’t be stopped in any way from penetrating our border, we still have two coasts and most illegals just overstay their tourist and student visas and have been doing so forever. E-verify is the only way to stop the chronic entry of illegals. However, after the spectacle of the invasion over the last months it’s clear that there is a role for a wall. A wall makes this kind of invasion more difficult, the chronic problem not so easy but most of all it tells our Southern friends that they’re welcome to apply legally but not just sneak in, that free and easy entry is over. We’re back in charge. Expensive in the short term, but clearly necessary.

    Every country I’ve ever lived in or visited has e-verify, (a bunch) and have had it since well before there was such a thing as “e” with which to verify. It’s called cedula, or national id, or citizenship card. It’s pretty universal and it works.

    But e-verify is “Hitler!” according to the libs! As are national boundaries.

    • #20
  21. DonG Coolidge
    DonG
    @DonG

    The Reticulator (View Comment):
    Items seized from whom? This sounds uncomfortably close to civil assets forfeiture. Seized property should probably go to a general fund rather than to some branch of government that can develop a conflict of interest.

    Assets seized at the border.  Undeclared cash and associated transportation vehicles.  The Obama administration was good at creating self-funding agencies, so they would not be limited by Congress. 

    • #21
  22. Clifford A. Brown Contributor
    Clifford A. Brown
    @CliffordBrown

    DonG (View Comment):

    The Reticulator (View Comment):
    Items seized from whom? This sounds uncomfortably close to civil assets forfeiture. Seized property should probably go to a general fund rather than to some branch of government that can develop a conflict of interest.

    Assets seized at the border. Undeclared cash and associated transportation vehicles. The Obama administration was good at creating self-funding agencies, so they would not be limited by Congress.

    It was not Obama, but Congress, responding to the 2008 collapse of the housing bubble and associated collapse of financial institutions connected with the bad loans. The Democrats created the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and tried to insulate it from future Republican oversight.

    • #22
  23. Mendel Inactive
    Mendel
    @Mendel

    I Walton (View Comment):

    With you up until the “national ID” part. That’s probably a non-starter in the US.

    Then give up because without it there is no border control nor can there be unless we cease to accept foreign businessmen, tourists and foreign students. Never preemptively capitulate. Republicans seem to think that if a poll last week didn’t support some good idea, it should be dropped.

    There’s no need to convince me of the merits of a national ID, because I already agree. I live in a country that has national IDs, and I have one in my wallet right now. Not only that, but everybody has to register with the government any time they change their primary residence.

    It actually makes life and governance much easier. Not only is there no need to write to a million different government agencies every time you move to announce your new address, it’s also a powerful tool against voter fraud and other forms of defrauding the government.

    But I would counter that the corollary to your “never preemptively capitulate” would be “don’t treat major hurdles as minor speed bumps”. The main force opposing a national ID (and “government registration”) are a small but politically vital group of Republican base voters. A group of voters who don’t take kindly to eggheads like us trying to persuade them to report themselves to the government on a regular basis because we understand the vagaries of immigration policy better.

    A national ID/registration system would be very expedient, and so politically impossible that our persuasive energies are likely better spent elsewhere.

    • #23
  24. ST Inactive
    ST
    @SimonTemplar

    There will always be bad dudes living in the shadows but what country lets illegals go wherever the heck they want to go?

    • #24
  25. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Mendel (View Comment):
    It actually makes life and governance much easier.

    That’s a powerful argument against a national ID. 

     

    • #25
  26. I Walton Member
    I Walton
    @IWalton

    The Reticulator (View Comment):

    Mendel (View Comment):
    It actually makes life and governance much easier.

    That’s a powerful argument against a national ID.

     

    Easier in the sense of less intrusive, like good law instead of complex bureaucratic regulations.   Simple and transparent is good from both perspectives it requires less government and governors.

    • #26
  27. Mendel Inactive
    Mendel
    @Mendel

    The Reticulator (View Comment):

    Mendel (View Comment):
    It actually makes life and governance much easier.

    That’s a powerful argument against a national ID.

    It’s a trade-off plain and simple.

    IWalton’s points about being able to ferret out illegal immigrants using national IDs are spot on. It’s also much easier to prevent many types of voter fraud. So there are genuine benefits to a national registration in terms of conservative policy goals.

    But of course there are drawbacks, and “the ease of big government” could certainly be viewed as one of those. Is the juice worth the squeeze? I’d personally say yes, because I find illegal immigration to be a more pressing issue* than the danger that our government might become more efficient if it has our addresses in a central database. But opinions obviously differ greatly.

    *And, like IWalton, I think erecting a physical barrier is a very inefficient manner of combating illegal immigration since a) so many are already on this side of the border, b) a majority of them came across the border legally at ports of entry, and c) as long as there’s a strong financial incentive for illegal immigrants to come to the US, they’ll easily find a way around a wall.

    • #27
  28. Mendel Inactive
    Mendel
    @Mendel

    I Walton (View Comment):

    The Reticulator (View Comment):

    Mendel (View Comment):
    It actually makes life and governance much easier.

    That’s a powerful argument against a national ID.

     

    Easier in the sense of less intrusive, like good law instead of complex bureaucratic regulations. Simple and transparent is good from both perspectives it requires less government and governors.

    While this isn’t the thread for it, we should have a debate sometime on whether intentionally sabotaging government (or intentionally making it work less efficiently) is a conservative goal, since it does slow government down but at the cost of wasted taxpayer resources.

    • #28
  29. I Walton Member
    I Walton
    @IWalton

    Mendel (View Comment):

    I Walton (View Comment):

    The Reticulator (View Comment):

    Mendel (View Comment):
    It actually makes life and governance much easier.

    That’s a powerful argument against a national ID.

     

    Easier in the sense of less intrusive, like good law instead of complex bureaucratic regulations. Simple and transparent is good from both perspectives it requires less government and governors.

    While this isn’t the thread for it, we should have a debate sometime on whether intentionally sabotaging government (or intentionally making it work less efficiently) is a conservative goal, since it does slow government down but at the cost of wasted taxpayer resources.

    Game on, but it starts differentiating between the built in sluggishness of separation of powers, and bureaucratic ineptitude.  The latter is a product of all tyranny. 

    • #29
  30. Nanda Panjandrum Member
    Nanda Panjandrum
    @

    ST (View Comment):

    And Schumer’s posture is scary, horrifying almost.

    Truly nightmarish, isn’t he?  “San Fran Gran Nan” is a close second.  (I thought All Hallows’ Eve was over.)…Eeeekkkk!

    • #30
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