A Jobs Report That Reminds Us of the Power of Economic Growth

 

The November jobs report produced plenty of decent news: the 3.7 percent jobless rate held at the lowest level since 1969, 3.1 percent year-over-year wage growth matched October’s pace as the best since 2009, and even the lighter-than-forecasted 155,000 jobs gained means the rolling three-month average is still a solid 170,000. (On that last point, Barclays notes the jobs gain magnitude is about twice that needed to absorb growth in the labor force and push the unemployment rate lower over time.)

But maybe the best news of all is how the growing economy keeps grinding down the jobless rate for those at the bottom. The 3.5 percent unemployment rate for Americans with just a high school diploma is the lowest since 2000. Moreover, we’re seeing strong wage gains for the least-skilled workers. For instance: Average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees in the leisure and hospitality sector were up 4.4 percent from a year ago, easily beating inflation no matter who you slice. (And keep in mind that all this is happening even as the bugaboo U.S. trade deficit is at a 10-year high.)

Now it’s been a long recovery and expansion after the Great Recession, but expansions don’t die of old age, as Wall Street likes to remind us. So there’s no reason this one has to end next month, next quarter, or next year. Australia, for instance, is in its 28th year of growth without a recession. Here is a JPMorgan report from earlier this year on the lessons America should draw from Australia:

The Australian experience during those two episodes teach us that there is no cosmological constant that says expansions must cease after a certain number of years, or that an unemployment rate can’t move up a percentage point and then increase no further. While the US may not have the same shock absorbers as Australia, with enough finesse—and some luck—there is no necessity the US will have a recession in the next few years. However, another Australian lesson is that if we are to have several more years of expansion, likely it will require a significant mid-cycle slowdown. Indeed that lesson is already implicit in the US experience, where, as noted earlier, the longest expansions all had mid-cycle slowdowns.

Indeed, growth here seems certain to slow as government stimulus fades and fewer new workers can be brought off the sidelines in what remains a low-productivity economy. That said, the jobless rate may continue to fall toward 3 percent even as wage growth remains relatively strong. This 2019 speculation from investor and Bloomberg columnist Conor Sen is awesome: “Next year we could end up getting something like U3 at 3.5 percent, overall wage growth around 3.5 percent, wage growth for lower-paid workers around 4.5-5 percent, inflation around or a little above 2 percent.”

More please, Chairman Powell! A soft landing isn’t probable, but we can hope.

Published in Economics
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  1. Front Seat Cat Member
    Front Seat Cat
    @FrontSeatCat

    I’ll mention the terrible hurricanes and fires have negatively impacted the job market due to people losing their homes and having to relocate.  I heard yesterday that Bay Medical in Panama City is losing hundreds and hundreds of staff because the hospital was badly damaged. There is a new normal for people impacted by weather this year – and will take time to get back on their feet.  With all of that, this is still a good jobs report – and thankful!

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