5 Reasons Why Sinema Won Arizona

 

Outsiders think of Arizona as one of the reddest states. From Barry Goldwater to anti-immigration hawks like Sheriff Joe Arpaio, our most famous politicians tend to be Republicans. But traditionally, Arizona is rather purple and regularly features tight statewide elections.

In the past 45 years, Democrats have held the governorship as often as the Republicans. But in the last decade, the GOP consolidated their hold on power due to the unprecedented organization of the Tea Party and the Left’s hyperbolic anti-Arizona rhetoric in the wake of the illegal immigration debates. (“Vote for us, you dumb racists!” wasn’t the winning message Democrats expected.) Last Tuesday, the pendulum finally swung back to the center.

Many non-Arizonans wonder how decorated fighter pilot Martha McSally could have lost to a  progressive-turned-moderate like Kyrsten Sinema. Excuses like “Trump lost the suburbs” and “Democrats cheat” miss the point. Instead, here are five local reasons this race turned out as it did.

McSally’s Prevent Defense

McSally is no stranger to razor-thin votes. She lost the 2012 congressional race by less than 2,500 votes and won the 2014 rematch by just 167. A major reason for this is her campaigning style.

The Pima County Republican is very cautious. Very cautious. Instead of barnstorming the map and mixing it up with all comers, she carefully issues press releases and attends controlled events. She wouldn’t even agree to a debate with Sinema for months and then only participated in one.

Her style is reminiscent of the much-derided “prevent defense” in the NFL. A football team wants to protect a lead, so they stop trying to score and merely attempt to prevent the other team from scoring. It backfires so often, it’s often parodied as the “prevent-you-from-winning defense.” It definitely backfired for McSally.

Negative Ad Burnout

Most Arizonans would agree that the 2018 Senate race was the most negative statewide campaign they had ever seen. Traditionally, candidates buy a mix of positive and negative ads, a proven strategy that Sinema held to. But McSally and the outside groups supporting her were nearly all-negative, all-the-time. Focusing on the Republican’s remarkable achievements in the military and also in politics would have gone a long way to define a woman few in the state knew much about. Sure, there were a few ads like that, but not nearly enough to match Sinema’s seeming optimism.

McSally hails from Pima County, home to Tucson, while Sinema is from Maricopa County, home to Phoenix. More than half the state’s population lives in the latter, so they didn’t know much about the Tucson-based candidate. She needed to spend a lot more time defining herself since Sinema was already defined to a big chunk of Arizonans.

The McCain/Flake Hangover

Arizona conservatives have been frustrated with their Republican senators for many years. Jeff Flake and John McCain campaigned as rock-ribbed right-wingers every six years only to vote with Democrats in DC on crucial issues.

Since McSally had been very friendly with McCain, many conservative Republicans were turned off from the start. Late in the campaign, McSally embraced Trump, so moderate Republicans were turned off. To much of the GOP, a vote for McSally seemed like a requirement but was nothing to get excited about.

The Left Was Motivated — and Organized

The Right in Arizona had been well-organized for the past decade, but the Left finally caught up. What began as a grassroots effort to increase teacher pay in early 2018 was quickly professionalized by the state Democratic party and outside groups. Through social media and text messages, the movement activated hundreds of thousands of Arizonans and resulted in a 20 percent salary increase.

What do you do with all that contact info? Keep promoting Democratic causes of course. Tom Steyer’s NextGen America was notable in this case, flooding info to the young, while other players flooded everyone else.

Sinema Ran a Great Campaign

Whether its genuine or an act, Sinema has focused on cultivating her moderate bona fides for years. In the House and now in the Senate campaign, her mailers and ads are nothing but waving flags and smiling veterans. She barely mentions her party but stresses her “independence” and willingness to work with “literally anyone” on conservative issues.

She is also well liked on both sides, cultivating working relationship and friendships with political opponents for years.

All That Said…

As frustrating as it was to watch McSally’s weak campaign, I thought Arizona remained a bit redder than it actually was. At the start of the year, I predicted she and Sinema would win their respective primaries and McSally would prevail in a squeaker. But instead of the R winning by a point, the D did.

Gov. Doug Ducey defeated his Democratic challenger by double digits, but his appeal wasn’t matched in other statewide races. If the GOP wants to win in the Grand Canyon State, they can’t rest on their party registration advantage and old trends. Instead, great candidates need to run great campaigns and, at the very least, keep up with Democratic GOTV innovations.

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  1. Gary Robbins Member
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    DrewInWisconsin (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):
    I strongly suggest that Republicans not label themselves as the Trump Candidates, that they not attend Trump rallies, and if they do attend Trump Rallies, that they refrain from embracing Trump.

    Reminder: Those are the Republicans who lost their elections.

    They were Trumpers.  They were not regular Republicans.  Instead they were a bred of people who call themselves Republicans who need to be escorted out of the Party.

    • #121
  2. Gary Robbins Member
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    I just had a colonoscopy.  Three polyps were removed, and a portion of my colon will need to be removed to remove the fourth polyp.  I see Trump as a polyp that needs to be removed from our party.

    Gary

    • #122
  3. Max Ledoux Coolidge
    Max Ledoux
    @Max

    She (View Comment):

    Columbo (View Comment):

    Dear Dr. Gawron,

    You are right. There are times when emotion is necessary. It is indeed human.

    Excellent point. Nothing wrong with passion, emotion or humanity. However, all of you on this thread are “paying for [your] microphone,” here, so would you all please allow each other to speak without rudeness and insult, and personal remarks?

    Thank you.

    Plus we’ve had a huge spike in traffic on this particular post so please everyone represent the community well. :-D

    • #123
  4. James Gawron Inactive
    James Gawron
    @JamesGawron

    Moderator Note:

    Please take to heart to what @She said in the following comment: http://ricochet.com/572300/5-reasons-why-sinema-won-arizona/comment-page-4/#comment-4336832

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    DrewInWisconsin (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):
    I strongly suggest that Republicans not label themselves as the Trump Candidates, that they not attend Trump rallies, and if they do attend Trump Rallies, that they refrain from embracing Trump.

    Reminder: Those are the Republicans who lost their elections.

    They were Trumpers. They were not regular Republicans. Instead they were a bred of people who call themselves Republicans who need to be escorted out of the Party.

    Gary,

    Are you really OK? Escorted out of the party??? Apparently endorsing Trump is the equivalent of being David Duke. Gary, please think before you type. Apparently, you will be the judge of who is a “regular” Republican. Was that a 44 regular or maybe a 46 long?

    Regards,

    Jim

    • #124
  5. DrewInWisconsin Member
    DrewInWisconsin
    @DrewInWisconsin

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    DrewInWisconsin (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):
    I strongly suggest that Republicans not label themselves as the Trump Candidates, that they not attend Trump rallies, and if they do attend Trump Rallies, that they refrain from embracing Trump.

    Reminder: Those are the Republicans who lost their elections.

    They were Trumpers. They were not regular Republicans. Instead they were a bred of people who call themselves Republicans who need to be escorted out of the Party.

    No, Gary. You have it precisely backwards. The ones who lost were the squishes.

    Or, as Ben Domenech wrote last week:

    Democrats are getting the party they want, and it can’t win in purple and red states. Republicans are getting the party they didn’t want, and it can.

    . . .

    Today we wake up to a Republican Party that is decidedly more Trumpian, having seen the elimination of its most moderate and Trump-critical members, and the support of those who embraced Trump emphatically on the campaign trail and in policy preferences.

    Your crazy “Vote D to save the Rs” plan had the effect of strengthening the President’s position for 2020.

     

    • #125
  6. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    I just had a colonoscopy. Three polyps were removed, and a portion of my colon will need to be removed to remove the fourth polyp. I see Trump as a polyp that needs to be removed from our party.

    Gary

    LOL Well done.

    • #126
  7. Django Member
    Django
    @Django

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    I just had a colonoscopy. Three polyps were removed, and a portion of my colon will need to be removed to remove the fourth polyp. I see Trump as a polyp that needs to be removed from our party.

    Gary

    I hope they are benign and not malignant. Still, I think that is not the brightest comment. When Trump is “removed”, I suspect his supporters will go with him, and as I have pointed out to you before, they’ll take their votes with them. I’ve already left the GOP, so it’s no big deal if it becomes a permanent minority party. 

    • #127
  8. Columbo Inactive
    Columbo
    @Columbo

    Did “Emergency Voting”(?!) Centers, opened in Maricopa County, have any impact?

    • #128
  9. Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… Coolidge
    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo…
    @GumbyMark

    Columbo (View Comment):

    Did “Emergency Voting”(?!) Centers, opened in Maricopa County, have any impact?

    No, the number of votes involved (3,000) was too small to sway the result.

    • #129
  10. Gary Robbins Member
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    One Republican could and would have beaten Sinema in a General Election.  Senator Jeff Flake.  

    Way to go Trump!  By driving Flake out, you gave away a Senate seat to the Democrats!

    • #130
  11. Django Member
    Django
    @Django

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    One Republican could and would have beaten Sinema in a General Election. Senator Jeff Flake.

    Way to go Trump! By driving Flake out, you gave away a Senate seat to the Democrats!

    Was Trump directly responsible for Flake’s 18% approval rating? I am assuming that figure was correctly reported and not “fake news”. 

    • #131
  12. DrewInWisconsin Member
    DrewInWisconsin
    @DrewInWisconsin

    Django (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    One Republican could and would have beaten Sinema in a General Election. Senator Jeff Flake.

    Way to go Trump! By driving Flake out, you gave away a Senate seat to the Democrats!

    Was Trump directly responsible for Flake’s 18% approval rating? I am assuming that figure was correctly reported and not “fake news”.

    If it rains, it’s Trump’s fault. If you stub your toe, it’s Trump’s fault. Everything is Trump’s fault. And no, that’s not an insane view at all.

     

    • #132
  13. Viruscop Member
    Viruscop
    @Viruscop

    DrewInWisconsin (View Comment):

    Django (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    One Republican could and would have beaten Sinema in a General Election. Senator Jeff Flake.

    Way to go Trump! By driving Flake out, you gave away a Senate seat to the Democrats!

    Was Trump directly responsible for Flake’s 18% approval rating? I am assuming that figure was correctly reported and not “fake news”.

    If it rains, it’s Trump’s fault. If you stub your toe, it’s Trump’s fault. Everything is Trump’s fault. And no, that’s not an insane view at all.

     

    I thought that Trump was responsible for Flake’s low approval rating, but given that McSally lost I guess he was disliked for a different reason.

    It could have been that he was a drama queen. Republicans  seem to make a bunch of soaring speeches that don’t amount to anything. At least, they seem to make more of such speeches than Democrats.

    • #133
  14. EDISONPARKS Member
    EDISONPARKS
    @user_54742

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    One Republican could and would have beaten Sinema in a General Election. Senator Jeff Flake.

    Way to go Trump! By driving Flake out, you gave away a Senate seat to the Democrats!

    The (R)’s of AZ were the ones who showed Flake the writing on the wall(polls) which suggested he should politely leave before being embarrassingly primaried out on his ahrse.

    Flake’s pathetic antics during the Kavanaugh hearings reaffirmed the wise judgement of AZ (R)’s.

    • #134
  15. Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… Coolidge
    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo…
    @GumbyMark

    Viruscop (View Comment):

    DrewInWisconsin (View Comment):

    Django (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    One Republican could and would have beaten Sinema in a General Election. Senator Jeff Flake.

    Way to go Trump! By driving Flake out, you gave away a Senate seat to the Democrats!

    Was Trump directly responsible for Flake’s 18% approval rating? I am assuming that figure was correctly reported and not “fake news”.

    If it rains, it’s Trump’s fault. If you stub your toe, it’s Trump’s fault. Everything is Trump’s fault. And no, that’s not an insane view at all.

     

    I thought that Trump was responsible for Flake’s low approval rating, but given that McSally lost I guess he was disliked for a different reason.

    It could have been that he was a drama queen. Republicans seem to make a bunch of soaring speeches that don’t amount to anything. At least, they seem to make more of such speeches than Democrats.

    I am Spartacus!

    • #135
  16. Columbo Inactive
    Columbo
    @Columbo

    EDISONPARKS (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    One Republican could and would have beaten Sinema in a General Election. Senator Jeff Flake.

    Way to go Trump! By driving Flake out, you gave away a Senate seat to the Democrats!

    The (R)’s of AZ were the ones who showed Flake the writing on the wall(polls) which suggested he should politely leave before being embarrassingly primaried out on his ahrse.

    Flake’s pathetic antics during the Kavanaugh hearings reaffirmed the wise judgement of AZ (R)’s.

    ‘I could not win in a Republican primary’ … Jeff ‘18% approval’ Flake

    • #136
  17. Django Member
    Django
    @Django

    Columbo (View Comment):

    EDISONPARKS (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    One Republican could and would have beaten Sinema in a General Election. Senator Jeff Flake.

    Way to go Trump! By driving Flake out, you gave away a Senate seat to the Democrats!

    The (R)’s of AZ were the ones who showed Flake the writing on the wall(polls) which suggested he should politely leave before being embarrassingly primaried out on his ahrse.

    Flake’s pathetic antics during the Kavanaugh hearings reaffirmed the wise judgement of AZ (R)’s.

    ‘I could not win in a Republican primary’ … Jeff ‘18% approval’ Flake

    At least Flake had a modicum of self-awareness, and awareness of his chances. For the rest, they should remember Mark Twain: Denial ain’t just a river in Egypt. 

    • #137
  18. Columbo Inactive
    Columbo
    @Columbo

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    One Republican could and would have beaten Sinema in a General Election. Senator Jeff Flake.

    Way to go Trump! By driving Flake out, you gave away a Senate seat to the Democrats!

    Hey, don’t look now, but Mr. 18% approval drama queen is now blocking good judges. 

    Jeff Flake seeks to halt Judicial nominees ….

    • #138
  19. Django Member
    Django
    @Django

    Columbo (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    One Republican could and would have beaten Sinema in a General Election. Senator Jeff Flake.

    Way to go Trump! By driving Flake out, you gave away a Senate seat to the Democrats!

    Hey, don’t look now, but Mr. 18% approval drama queen is now blocking good judges.

    Jeff Flake seeks to halt Judicial nominees ….

    I despise Flake in part because of this kind of self-aggrandizing nonsense. Still, Cocaine Mitch is blocking the protection bill according to recent reports. 

    • #139
  20. Gary Robbins Member
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    Columbo (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    One Republican could and would have beaten Sinema in a General Election. Senator Jeff Flake.

    Way to go Trump! By driving Flake out, you gave away a Senate seat to the Democrats!

    Hey, don’t look now, but Mr. 18% approval drama queen is now blocking good judges.

    Jeff Flake seeks to halt Judicial nominees ….

    No.  What Flake has insisted on is a vote on the Mueller Protection Act that cleared the Judiciary Committee on a 14-7 vote.  

    • #140
  21. James Gawron Inactive
    James Gawron
    @JamesGawron

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    One Republican could and would have beaten Sinema in a General Election. Senator Jeff Flake.

    Way to go Trump! By driving Flake out, you gave away a Senate seat to the Democrats!

    Gary,

    Another very strange claim. Trump didn’t drive Flake out. Flake drove himself out. He decided that he’d play the Trump not good enough card over and over again. This is the blame Trump for the most recent sun spot eruption syndrome. The irrationality goes ever forward and the extreme left profits and profits…

    Regards,

    Jim

    • #141
  22. EDISONPARKS Member
    EDISONPARKS
    @user_54742

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Columbo (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    One Republican could and would have beaten Sinema in a General Election. Senator Jeff Flake.

    Way to go Trump! By driving Flake out, you gave away a Senate seat to the Democrats!

    Hey, don’t look now, but Mr. 18% approval drama queen is now blocking good judges.

    Jeff Flake seeks to halt Judicial nominees ….

    No. What Flake has insisted on is a vote on the Mueller Protection Act that cleared the Judiciary Committee on a 14-7 vote.

    Still another reason why the Country can thank the (R) voters of AZ for removing Flake from making the important decisions of a US Senator.  

    He played Hamlet with Kavanaugh, but  Flake is all in on the meaningless political games of the Mueller Protection Act.

    Jeff Flake was not up to the job of United States Senator, in a month and a half Flake will be safely where he can do no more harm.

    • #142
  23. Max Ledoux Coolidge
    Max Ledoux
    @Max

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):
    What Flake has insisted on is a vote on the Mueller Protection Act that cleared the Judiciary Committee on a 14-7 vote.

    I think this bill is unconstitutional on its face. 

    https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/2644?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%5B%22Judiciary%22%5D%7D&r=6

     

    It cannot be constitutional to give the attorney general power (firing a special counsel) that the president does not have. There is no attorney general in the constitution. All of the attorney general’s authority and power comes to him from the president. 

    The “Special Counsel Independence and Integrity Act” is clearly unconstitutional.

    Not to mention, Congress already tried to dictate to the president (Andrew Johnson) who he could or could not fire (with the Tenure of Office Act), and that didn’t work out too well. When Johnson ignored the law, Congress tried and failed to impeach him. A later Congress repealed it, and the Supreme Court later declared it to have been invalid, when ruling that a different law limiting the power of a president to fire executive branch employees was unconstitutional. (See Myers_v._United_States.)

     

     

    • #143
  24. Max Ledoux Coolidge
    Max Ledoux
    @Max

    James Gawron (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    One Republican could and would have beaten Sinema in a General Election. Senator Jeff Flake.

    Way to go Trump! By driving Flake out, you gave away a Senate seat to the Democrats!

    Gary,

    Another very strange claim. Trump didn’t drive Flake out. Flake drove himself out. He decided that he’d play the Trump not good enough card over and over again. This is the blame Trump for the most recent sun spot eruption syndrome. The irrationality goes ever forward and the extreme left profits and profits…

    Regards,

    Jim

    To be fair to Gary, Trump said in his press conference last week that “I retired Flake.”

    http://insider.foxnews.com/2018/11/07/president-trump-says-he-retired-sen-jeff-flake-did-country-great-service-doing-so

    • #144
  25. Django Member
    Django
    @Django

    Max Ledoux (View Comment):

    James Gawron (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    One Republican could and would have beaten Sinema in a General Election. Senator Jeff Flake.

    Way to go Trump! By driving Flake out, you gave away a Senate seat to the Democrats!

    Gary,

    Another very strange claim. Trump didn’t drive Flake out. Flake drove himself out. He decided that he’d play the Trump not good enough card over and over again. This is the blame Trump for the most recent sun spot eruption syndrome. The irrationality goes ever forward and the extreme left profits and profits…

    Regards,

    Jim

    To be fair to Gary, Trump said in his press conference last week that “I retired Flake.”

    http://insider.foxnews.com/2018/11/07/president-trump-says-he-retired-sen-jeff-flake-did-country-great-service-doing-so

    I’m shocked … shocked, I say, to discover that no one has yet accused Trump of taking credit in this matter that he doesn’t deserve. 

    • #145
  26. EDISONPARKS Member
    EDISONPARKS
    @user_54742

    Django (View Comment):

    Max Ledoux (View Comment):

    James Gawron (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    One Republican could and would have beaten Sinema in a General Election. Senator Jeff Flake.

    Way to go Trump! By driving Flake out, you gave away a Senate seat to the Democrats!

    Gary,

    Another very strange claim. Trump didn’t drive Flake out. Flake drove himself out. He decided that he’d play the Trump not good enough card over and over again. This is the blame Trump for the most recent sun spot eruption syndrome. The irrationality goes ever forward and the extreme left profits and profits…

    Regards,

    Jim

    To be fair to Gary, Trump said in his press conference last week that “I retired Flake.”

    http://insider.foxnews.com/2018/11/07/president-trump-says-he-retired-sen-jeff-flake-did-country-great-service-doing-so

    I’m shocked … shocked, I say, to discover that no one has yet accused Trump of taking credit in this matter that he doesn’t deserve.

    I would give Flakes job performance as Senator and the AZ (R) voters response to Flakes six years as AZ Senator 100% credit for Flakes “retirement”, and Trump zero credit.

    • #146
  27. Viruscop Member
    Viruscop
    @Viruscop

    James Gawron (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    One Republican could and would have beaten Sinema in a General Election. Senator Jeff Flake.

    Way to go Trump! By driving Flake out, you gave away a Senate seat to the Democrats!

    Gary,

    Another very strange claim. Trump didn’t drive Flake out. Flake drove himself out. He decided that he’d play the Trump not good enough card over and over again. This is the blame Trump for the most recent sun spot eruption syndrome. The irrationality goes ever forward and the extreme left profits and profits…

    Regards,

    Jim

    I agree that Flake drove himself out. 

    Flake should have gone full Rubio. Be an idiot that seems moderate, yet go full nationalist when it suits you.

    • #147
  28. George Townsend Inactive
    George Townsend
    @GeorgeTownsend

    Max Ledoux (View Comment):
    When Johnson ignored the law, Congress tried and failed to impeach him

    Whatever the merits or demerits of the rest of this, Max, the above statement is clearly wrong. It may be a technicality to you, but impeachment is merely a charge. Johnson was indeed impeached. He survived being thrown of office by one vote. Now, I don’t want to get into the rest of what you had to say, but for somebody who is trying to lecture us on what is or what is not Constitution, don’t you think the fact that you got this minor thing wrong calls into doubt your “authority” on the Constitutionality of things?

    • #148
  29. Gary Robbins Member
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    George Townsend (View Comment):

    Max Ledoux (View Comment):
    When Johnson ignored the law, Congress tried and failed to impeach him

    Whatever the merits or demerits of the rest of this, Max, the above statement is clearly wrong. It may be a technicality to you, but impeachment is merely a charge. Johnson was indeed impeached. He survived being thrown of office by one vote. Now, I don’t want to get into the rest of what you had to say, but for somebody who is trying to lecture us on what is or what is not Constitution, don’t you think the fact that you got this minor thing wrong calls into doubt your “authority” on the Constitutionality of things?

    Query.  Would it have been better if Johnson had been convicted by the Senate and removed from office.  A close question, but I think so.  Andrew Johnson was bullheaded and failed to faithfully execute laws passed by Congress.  In the long run, I think that it would have been better for Andrew Johnson to have been removed.

    • #149
  30. Mike "Lash" LaRoche Inactive
    Mike "Lash" LaRoche
    @MikeLaRoche

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    I just had a colonoscopy. Three polyps were removed, and a portion of my colon will need to be removed to remove the fourth polyp. I see Trump as a polyp that needs to be removed from our party.

    Gary

    That’s disgusting.

    • #150
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