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5 Reasons Why Sinema Won Arizona
Outsiders think of Arizona as one of the reddest states. From Barry Goldwater to anti-immigration hawks like Sheriff Joe Arpaio, our most famous politicians tend to be Republicans. But traditionally, Arizona is rather purple and regularly features tight statewide elections.
In the past 45 years, Democrats have held the governorship as often as the Republicans. But in the last decade, the GOP consolidated their hold on power due to the unprecedented organization of the Tea Party and the Left’s hyperbolic anti-Arizona rhetoric in the wake of the illegal immigration debates. (“Vote for us, you dumb racists!” wasn’t the winning message Democrats expected.) Last Tuesday, the pendulum finally swung back to the center.
Many non-Arizonans wonder how decorated fighter pilot Martha McSally could have lost to a progressive-turned-moderate like Kyrsten Sinema. Excuses like “Trump lost the suburbs” and “Democrats cheat” miss the point. Instead, here are five local reasons this race turned out as it did.
McSally’s Prevent Defense
McSally is no stranger to razor-thin votes. She lost the 2012 congressional race by less than 2,500 votes and won the 2014 rematch by just 167. A major reason for this is her campaigning style.
The Pima County Republican is very cautious. Very cautious. Instead of barnstorming the map and mixing it up with all comers, she carefully issues press releases and attends controlled events. She wouldn’t even agree to a debate with Sinema for months and then only participated in one.
Her style is reminiscent of the much-derided “prevent defense” in the NFL. A football team wants to protect a lead, so they stop trying to score and merely attempt to prevent the other team from scoring. It backfires so often, it’s often parodied as the “prevent-you-from-winning defense.” It definitely backfired for McSally.
Negative Ad Burnout
Most Arizonans would agree that the 2018 Senate race was the most negative statewide campaign they had ever seen. Traditionally, candidates buy a mix of positive and negative ads, a proven strategy that Sinema held to. But McSally and the outside groups supporting her were nearly all-negative, all-the-time. Focusing on the Republican’s remarkable achievements in the military and also in politics would have gone a long way to define a woman few in the state knew much about. Sure, there were a few ads like that, but not nearly enough to match Sinema’s seeming optimism.
McSally hails from Pima County, home to Tucson, while Sinema is from Maricopa County, home to Phoenix. More than half the state’s population lives in the latter, so they didn’t know much about the Tucson-based candidate. She needed to spend a lot more time defining herself since Sinema was already defined to a big chunk of Arizonans.
The McCain/Flake Hangover
Arizona conservatives have been frustrated with their Republican senators for many years. Jeff Flake and John McCain campaigned as rock-ribbed right-wingers every six years only to vote with Democrats in DC on crucial issues.
Since McSally had been very friendly with McCain, many conservative Republicans were turned off from the start. Late in the campaign, McSally embraced Trump, so moderate Republicans were turned off. To much of the GOP, a vote for McSally seemed like a requirement but was nothing to get excited about.
The Left Was Motivated — and Organized
The Right in Arizona had been well-organized for the past decade, but the Left finally caught up. What began as a grassroots effort to increase teacher pay in early 2018 was quickly professionalized by the state Democratic party and outside groups. Through social media and text messages, the movement activated hundreds of thousands of Arizonans and resulted in a 20 percent salary increase.
What do you do with all that contact info? Keep promoting Democratic causes of course. Tom Steyer’s NextGen America was notable in this case, flooding info to the young, while other players flooded everyone else.
Sinema Ran a Great Campaign
Whether its genuine or an act, Sinema has focused on cultivating her moderate bona fides for years. In the House and now in the Senate campaign, her mailers and ads are nothing but waving flags and smiling veterans. She barely mentions her party but stresses her “independence” and willingness to work with “literally anyone” on conservative issues.
She is also well liked on both sides, cultivating working relationship and friendships with political opponents for years.
All That Said…
As frustrating as it was to watch McSally’s weak campaign, I thought Arizona remained a bit redder than it actually was. At the start of the year, I predicted she and Sinema would win their respective primaries and McSally would prevail in a squeaker. But instead of the R winning by a point, the D did.
Gov. Doug Ducey defeated his Democratic challenger by double digits, but his appeal wasn’t matched in other statewide races. If the GOP wants to win in the Grand Canyon State, they can’t rest on their party registration advantage and old trends. Instead, great candidates need to run great campaigns and, at the very least, keep up with Democratic GOTV innovations.
Published in Elections
I suspect, though I don’t actually know, that Democrats would have been comfortable with JEB!, Kasich, Rubio, and maybe a couple other GOPe types.
I am not talking about comfort level. I suspect that most Democrats would not be comfortable with Republican Presidents, and that most Republicans are not comfortable with Democrat Presidents.
But even the most hard-bitten Dems will agree that Reagan was avuncular, that Bush I was goofy, but well meaning, and that they could imagine having a beer with Bush II.
While I never voted for any of them, I can admit that Obama was a great role model for his daughters, that Clinton was a good ol boy, and Carter was so damn earnest.
There tends to be a level of begrudging respect for Presidents of both parties who have made some effort to positively introduce themselves.
But the introduction for many Americans was Trump trolling the Birther issue. Then calling Mexicans rapists. Then demeaning war heroes who had been captured. Then playing footsie with racists. How many Presidents would have tolerated crowds chanting, “Lock her up” like we were a banana republic, or a budding totalitarian regime?
I have never seen any group as energized as Democrat’s incandescent hatred of Trump. And that led to record turnout a week ago.
Right now, Trump has only a 46% popularity rate, in a booming enconomy. Once the business cycle or inflation assert themselves, watch out.
Yes, just as the passage of the ACA was eased by the biggest lie in domestic policy history – “you can keep your plan if you like it”.
Those people are scum and we owe a lot to Trump for exposing who and what they are. There is no compromise with them. It’s their way or nothing as far as they are concerned. They hate. We disagree. That’s the difference. It’s about time the GOP woke up. I don’t like it, but it’s Trump or them.
No.
Democrats are Americans too. Some Democrats are scum, and some Republicans are scum. I reject your characterization of Democrats, per se, as scum. I voted for some Democrats this last election. Am I scum?
The last time that two sides in the US declared there could be no compromise resulted in a civil war.
You believe that they hate. They believe that you hate.
It’s Trump or them? Perhaps you are unaware that the turnout rate in the 2018 midterms was the highest in the U.S. since 1966 per CBS quoting a University of Florida professor. I can tell you that the Arizona had its highest midterm turnout at least back to 1998, which was as far as the AZ Secretary of State’s on line records went. My point is that while Trump has gotten you energized, he has more greatly energized Democrats. (I even heard one source state that the last time there was this high of a turnout in a midterm election was in 1914.)
For me, as a Reagan Republican, in the General Election, I voted against anyone who ran in the primary as the authentic Trump Candidate. For example, Steve Gaynor ran in Arizona’s Secretary of State race as the authentic Trump Republican. I voted against him. He appears to be the first Republican to lose the Secretary of State race since 1994.
I remember when Reagan inspired Americans. He won 49 states. Trump barely won. If the elections were held today, he would lose WI, MI, and PA in the Upper Midwest, and then he would lose AZ, GA and NC in the sunbelt. (In 2004, 2008, and 2012, W., McCain and Romney won by 9-11%. Trump won by only 3%. Trump would lose today by 3%.)
And when Seaman Apprentice Adlai Stevenson, who spent a few months in the U.S. Navy apparently on dry land and did not actively participate in either world war, twice ran against five-star general Dwight Eisenhower, they would be tied. Right?
One person is generally viewed as more of a veteran. Those of that generation who actually went to Vietnam win that contest — although they have been losing many of the actual elections.
I don’t mean to insult you, but you are not thinking clearly. You are the one who described the “incandescent hatred”, and I am the one who took you at your word. Did you mean what you said or not? If they hate as you said, they are scum. Enough said from my point of view.
Do you mean this speech?
That is excellent. Victor Davis Hansen recently explained what his plans were is the Japanese didn’t give up after the second bomb. Wild stuff.
I would not call them Scum. That is wrong. The ones who perpetuate violence are probably scum. The ones who hate so incandescently are deluded and irrational. And I can’t stand Trump. But to hate someone you don’t know is irrational. As bad as Trump is, he is not worth ruining your life over. He should not be there, in my judgement, but to hate him is to give too much credit to him – or any politician.
Gary,
Truly you live in fantasy land. If Ronald Reagan ran today he would immediately be branded a racist, misogynist, homophobe, islamophobe, and most certainly would be called a fascist. What you are admitting to is stabbing a Republican candidate in the back because he dared to endorse Trump. That is both counterproductive and just plain stupid.
Wake up Gary, it isn’t 1980 and it won’t ever be again. Jim Acosta would be doing exactly the same thing to Reagan but, of course, he wouldn’t have the chance as Reagan would have been crushed in 2016. We have Trump because Trump is all that survived. Knock off the crap.
Regards,
Jim
This is a very, very, big deal. There is just too much centralized government to commandeer, and it’s mucking everything up a lot. Cultural Marxism has real momentum. Idealism is not our friend anymore.
JMO.
I think you are misremembering the times. My Democrat friends hated Reagan. They thought him stupid, mean-spirited, racist, and on the verge of triggering a nuclear war. My Democrat friends hated Bush II. They though him stupid, mean-spirited, racist, and mocked him for his pronunciation of nuclear.
It’s only after the fact that Democrats pretend to have fond memories of past Republicans when they want to trash the current Republican.
There are many things I can’t stand about Trump but you need to recognize that for us old guys the ground has moved under our feet.
There was a time I could not conceived that someone like Trump could be nominated but I don’t think either of us would have thought 30 or 40 years ago that either party would nominate a Presidential candidate who claimed to have found Jesus through the preaching of a race-baiting anti-semite in whose church he sat for his entire adult life. Or nominate a Presidential candidate who started his political career under the sponsorship of an unrepentent abortion clinic bomber who thought the assassination of Bobby Kennedy was justified since he voted to sell military jets to the Jews.
George W Bush’s presidency was a failure, but historically we entered bizarro world in 2008, not 2016.
I didn’t stab anyone in the back. During the primary, Steve Gaynor accurately told every Registered Republican like me in the state that he was the second coming of Trump, that he was the authentic Trump Candidate, that to vote for him was to vote for Trump, that the best way to show how I felt about Trump was in my vote for or against him. Steve Gaynor told the truth as he knew it. I thank him for it, and I voted, by default for the candidate who was not the Trump Candidate.
I strongly suggest that Republicans not label themselves as the Trump Candidates, that they not attend Trump rallies, and if they do attend Trump Rallies, that they refrain from embracing Trump. I also recommend that Republicans refrain from appearing with Donald Trump, Jr., or with Steve Bannon which my legislative candidates did. That is if they want to win.
ETTD.
Moderator Note:
RudeGary,
No, you didn’t vote for the candidate who was not Trump. You voted for Nancy Pelosi to become Speaker of the House. [redacted]
Regards,
Jim
I think the mods should get on your back for always insulting people with whom you disagree.
Gary is complaining about an election outcome that he spent months on Ricochet promoting.
Moderator Note:
The logic that runs "I never insult people but..." while regularly carving out exceptions for those who for whatever reason "'need' extra-special treatment" ends up insulting a whole heckuvalotta people, actually. Please knock off the insults. You might start by realizing that insults *are* what you're doing.George,
I never insult people but Gary needs extra special treatment because his delusionof moral superiority is so dangerous to our ability to accomplish anything. Trump has provided solid conservative economic policy, solid conservative foreign policy, solid conservative constitutional judges, and his idiosyncratic trade approach appears to yield results.All that in 2 years with a Marxist press screaming in his face relentlessly. At this point, if you identify with the Marxist press more than the President then it says much more about you than the President.
Regards,
Jim
Steve Gaynor was running for Secretary of State not the House of Representatives.
Reminder: Those are the Republicans who lost their elections.
Solid.
No! No! No!
Aaaaaaaahhhhhhh!!!!
Regards,
Jim
There are a few things to say here…
I don’t want to agree to this, but I am afraid I must. And I think there is a reason for it: Democrats in general really do believe in the government’s ability to solve problems, and to help people. As conservatives, we know better. But reality doesn’t mean much to most Democrats. Their ideology takes it on faith that taxing high income people, regulating the economy to death, etc. will make everyone more or less equal, and that is what’s best for society. Anybody who gets in their way they hate. He is only out for himself and his rich friends, instead of aiding everybody.
I follow politics pretty closely, but I have no idea to whom you are referring.
This is really a bugaboo with me. George W Bush’s presidency was not a failure. There are some conservatives who think so (mostly the more extreme followers of Trump) but it is not so. The war went well, and might have even changed the Middle East, but for Obama. And it was also G.W. who tried to change Social Security for the better. It took guts to advance his proposal (to try to privatize just 4% of people’s earnings. It should been tried; but the Democrats killed the idea in the cradle. Under honest historians he should go down as above average.
Gary,
Better still. He can negotiate with Mexico and give back the southern half of Arizona. Why bother with border policy. Why bother with having a border. Oh, I forgot, Trump will defend it for you while you accuse him of being a fascist. Great Deal!
Regards,
Jim
Moderator Note:
While you are factually in the right about Gawron insulting people, escalating the insult wars by ending with "No Regards" is probably not very helpful.I don’t want to argue with the things you’ve written. It is not worth my time. But you do insult people, and you should pay a price for it.
No RegardsGeorge
I am referring to Bill Ayers who finagled Obama’s first high profile public policy appointment with the Annenberg Project. I did mess with things a bit by inserting “abortion clinic” in front of bomber just to see if anyone was reading! I like doing the same thing when talking with progressives because it brings them up short when they realize how they would have attacked anyone like that.
George,
The American People are already paying the price and have been for a good 30 years. We don’t need to apologize for Trump. They need to apologize for destroying America piece by piece as they control the media and propagandize endlessly.
Sorry if things got a little hot but considering what is really at stake why would anybody expect that no one would ever express any emotion at all. That’s not productive it’s not even human.
Regards,
Jim
Dear Dr. Gawron,
You are right. There are times when emotion is necessary. It is indeed human.
Excellent point. Nothing wrong with passion, emotion or humanity. However, all of you on this thread are “paying for [your] microphone,” here, so would you all please allow each other to speak without rudeness and insult, and personal remarks?
Thank you.