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5 Reasons Why Sinema Won Arizona
Outsiders think of Arizona as one of the reddest states. From Barry Goldwater to anti-immigration hawks like Sheriff Joe Arpaio, our most famous politicians tend to be Republicans. But traditionally, Arizona is rather purple and regularly features tight statewide elections.
In the past 45 years, Democrats have held the governorship as often as the Republicans. But in the last decade, the GOP consolidated their hold on power due to the unprecedented organization of the Tea Party and the Left’s hyperbolic anti-Arizona rhetoric in the wake of the illegal immigration debates. (“Vote for us, you dumb racists!” wasn’t the winning message Democrats expected.) Last Tuesday, the pendulum finally swung back to the center.
Many non-Arizonans wonder how decorated fighter pilot Martha McSally could have lost to a progressive-turned-moderate like Kyrsten Sinema. Excuses like “Trump lost the suburbs” and “Democrats cheat” miss the point. Instead, here are five local reasons this race turned out as it did.
McSally’s Prevent Defense
McSally is no stranger to razor-thin votes. She lost the 2012 congressional race by less than 2,500 votes and won the 2014 rematch by just 167. A major reason for this is her campaigning style.
The Pima County Republican is very cautious. Very cautious. Instead of barnstorming the map and mixing it up with all comers, she carefully issues press releases and attends controlled events. She wouldn’t even agree to a debate with Sinema for months and then only participated in one.
Her style is reminiscent of the much-derided “prevent defense” in the NFL. A football team wants to protect a lead, so they stop trying to score and merely attempt to prevent the other team from scoring. It backfires so often, it’s often parodied as the “prevent-you-from-winning defense.” It definitely backfired for McSally.
Negative Ad Burnout
Most Arizonans would agree that the 2018 Senate race was the most negative statewide campaign they had ever seen. Traditionally, candidates buy a mix of positive and negative ads, a proven strategy that Sinema held to. But McSally and the outside groups supporting her were nearly all-negative, all-the-time. Focusing on the Republican’s remarkable achievements in the military and also in politics would have gone a long way to define a woman few in the state knew much about. Sure, there were a few ads like that, but not nearly enough to match Sinema’s seeming optimism.
McSally hails from Pima County, home to Tucson, while Sinema is from Maricopa County, home to Phoenix. More than half the state’s population lives in the latter, so they didn’t know much about the Tucson-based candidate. She needed to spend a lot more time defining herself since Sinema was already defined to a big chunk of Arizonans.
The McCain/Flake Hangover
Arizona conservatives have been frustrated with their Republican senators for many years. Jeff Flake and John McCain campaigned as rock-ribbed right-wingers every six years only to vote with Democrats in DC on crucial issues.
Since McSally had been very friendly with McCain, many conservative Republicans were turned off from the start. Late in the campaign, McSally embraced Trump, so moderate Republicans were turned off. To much of the GOP, a vote for McSally seemed like a requirement but was nothing to get excited about.
The Left Was Motivated — and Organized
The Right in Arizona had been well-organized for the past decade, but the Left finally caught up. What began as a grassroots effort to increase teacher pay in early 2018 was quickly professionalized by the state Democratic party and outside groups. Through social media and text messages, the movement activated hundreds of thousands of Arizonans and resulted in a 20 percent salary increase.
What do you do with all that contact info? Keep promoting Democratic causes of course. Tom Steyer’s NextGen America was notable in this case, flooding info to the young, while other players flooded everyone else.
Sinema Ran a Great Campaign
Whether its genuine or an act, Sinema has focused on cultivating her moderate bona fides for years. In the House and now in the Senate campaign, her mailers and ads are nothing but waving flags and smiling veterans. She barely mentions her party but stresses her “independence” and willingness to work with “literally anyone” on conservative issues.
She is also well liked on both sides, cultivating working relationship and friendships with political opponents for years.
All That Said…
As frustrating as it was to watch McSally’s weak campaign, I thought Arizona remained a bit redder than it actually was. At the start of the year, I predicted she and Sinema would win their respective primaries and McSally would prevail in a squeaker. But instead of the R winning by a point, the D did.
Gov. Doug Ducey defeated his Democratic challenger by double digits, but his appeal wasn’t matched in other statewide races. If the GOP wants to win in the Grand Canyon State, they can’t rest on their party registration advantage and old trends. Instead, great candidates need to run great campaigns and, at the very least, keep up with Democratic GOTV innovations.
Published in Elections
Speaking just for myself (of course): I am about as old fashioned/traditional as can be. I have been spoofing the term “Male Chauvinist” since the seventies, by referring to myself as “A Male Chauvinist Pig”. And, even though I don’t want women in combat, Martha has done it; and distinguished herself. I want women like her in all aspects of government: Strong, but never forgetting she is a woman. I hope to see her in the Senate as soon as it can be arranged.
Governor Ducey started his reelection campaign almost as [forbidden hashtag phrase] as McSally, who was so opposed to the Republican candidate for President in 2016 that she wouldn’t go to the Republican convention. Those were his principles. (So was appointing Flake, though he was smart enough to not appoint Cindy McCain.)
But late in his campaign, he discovered others, and increasingly embraced the President, while McSally kept on keeping her distance from Trump.
This seems to confirm what @django said. So… McSally, Sinema, and Ducey all saw the election as a referendum on Trump:
When you consistently ( and remember voters have short memorizes) beat the snot out of your parties leader, are famous for voting against its platforms to the point wherein your moniker and TV livelihood is based on that image of ‘Maverick’ ( which he ate up by the fistful) it certainly doesn’t elicit any loyalty, does it? Do I need to double down on this with Flakes ‘resume’?
She will be, Ducey will probably appoint her to Kyls seat. Which if what I have read in this thread is a true indicator of her style etc., may be a mistake. But who else is there? She’ll have 2 years to ponder her mistakes, if the whacked out progressive harpy who won this race can change her image, so can she.
Not to worry. She’ll be able to stay resolute and moderate and go down with the ship. She has seen real war, so she’ll have no problem remaining irenic while we see if Sundance is right:
Bottom line: Bloomberg for President in 2020!
I have to say I’m mystified by this thread. Jon Gabriel is usually rational about Trump, but I read this post as deflecting Trump’s responsibility for this loss and proposing some three ball bank shot rejection of McCain and Flake by 200,000 Republican leaning voters. Let’s look at the Trump effect on another great veteran candidate we had running this time – John James in Michigan. He did very well against an incumbent but made the mistake of embracing Trump – that’s why an African-American got less than 5% of the vote in Detroit and lost the race.
After reading this and other AZ Senate race recaps and analysis I find it necessary to reverse my Spidey sense of Lefty Sinema voter fraud and conclude ….
Ducey is the obvious perpetrator of mass voter fraud!!!
Yes. Yes you do.
Specifically, please cite more than one issue where Flake actually voted against the wishes of other Arizonans. There is one issue, the so-called Gang of Eight. But the article said the word “issues” in the plural. The burden is on you to justify your position that Flake voted against the wishes of other Arizonans in a second issue.
I live in Arizona. Flake has a solid conservative voting record. I will await your citation of a second issue where Flake actually voted contrary to the wishes of Arizonans.
That assumes that “African-American” is enough to attract black voters. I don’t think it is. Non-elite voters on the Left will often ignore their economic self-interest when voting.
In his last run for governor in 1990 George Wallace got 90% of the Black vote, in 2014 Tim Scott got 7% in his race for the Senate. I’ve heard it said that Trump might break up the black monolith, at least among younger black men, but James’ performance doesn’t support this argument. James didn’t really run as a Republican, but as someone “2000%” with Trump.
I’m mystified by a couple of posters who continue to beat the “Trump is responsible” drum based on mere speculation, not that those persons could be persuaded otherwise. If 200,000 (or fewer) Arizonans aren’t capable of figuring out that a vote for a Democrat is the proverbial nose cutting to spite the party’s face, that’s purely on them.
But . . . but Orange Man Bad! : (
As with many political theories the “Trump bad hurts (R)’s” works nearly as often as it doesn’t.
It’s a common excuse, I’ll give you that. But I don’t expect that level of blaming from alleged grown-ups.
Wallace was an extremely gifted hands on populist politician who conveyed that he liked being with his people (not even though they were poor, sweaty, smelly ones; as a good populist he communicated the conviction that he enjoyed being with hard working people, and that the hard working people he’s talking to don’t stink as far as he was concerned.) As a segregationist, he was violent and confrontational, but he made a deep, warm, human connection to his white voters.
After he publicly announced that he had been born again in Christ, he followed that up by public apologies to black Americans in general and Civil Rights movement leaders in particular. At least in Alabama in 1990, that kind of naked repentance was compelling – particularly coming from a pain-wracked man in a wheelchair who told them that he knew that his being in that chair was because of the sins he was now repenting. He followed that up by embracing his black constituents, clearly conveying that he was still a populist (and while the content of the rhetoric differed between white and black populists, the style of Southern white and black populists of that era was almost identical) but that his people now included them.
His white voters had always felt that Wallace heard them, felt he was speaking to their hearts, and were persuaded that he would work hard for their interests. His new black prospective voters now felt the same, and that for the sake of his own soul he would work as hard for them as he had worked against them when he was serving the Devil.
That’s how he got 90% of the black vote.
Wouldn’t the fact that Wallace was the (D) candidate and blacks typically vote over 90% (D) be the reason Wallace got 90% of the black vote?
I agree with everything you said, I just wish Republican populism could be that inclusive too, instead of being defined by Birtherism, Charlottesville and meanness of spirit.
Thanks for your post, Jon.
Regards,
Jim
Obama played the Birther thing masterfully. It was a political version of Muhammed Ali’s rope-a-dope.
There’s a lot about Charlotesville that we don’t know and the MSM doesn’t want us to find out.
The problem is that Republican meanness of spirit gets a lot more airtime and is framed in an uglier manner than Democrat meanness of spirit (you must understand that that was a loving, compassionate protest outside Tucker Carlson’s house. There are no mobs on the Left.) That’s not justifying it or saying it doesn’t hurt the cause.
The thing is, you don’t have to think much to follow the (D) party line but the core (R) argument is a tougher one. It appeals to intelligent people – extensively educated or not. In fact, educated people not raised by parents who literally or metaphorically went to Hillsdale are likely to need to have or acquire an external frame of reference which allows them to deprogram (or red pill, or whatever) themselves in order to viscerally understand the conservative agenda and its version of populism.
The Left likes to sneer about the conformism of the 1950s but its own conformism goes unnoticed and has unfortunately captured the entire edutainment industry except for STEM education, and that is falling.
FYI in a few hours an interview of Jason Lewis about his article will be posted here —> @AndrewLeeTCNT @TCNewsTalk . If it isn’t there it’ll be under the Justice and Drew podcast at KTLK otherwise known as twin Cities news talk.
Also if you want to see the ACA torn apart look at the “rational walk” Twitter feed. It shouldn’t be too far down.
Who is doing the defining?
The usual suspects, of course. It’s just damnably hard work to remember that every time you turn on the news, a talk show, or click a news related link.
Could you explain how Birtherism was “masterful”? I see it as an unforced error, just as I do Charlottesville and a lot of the unnecessary slurs on immigrants.
So with all of this analysis let me ask my question from yesterday’s thread. Is it worth putting her in McCain’s old Senate Seat so she can run as an incumbent in 2020?
Obama could have put paid to the whole thing if he wanted to. But he didn’t want to because with the help of the MSM it made his opponents look like fools. For years. IIUC Hillary came up with it, but Obama kept it going for years for his own purposes. It gave him cover for not being willing to release his college transcripts, for example. There’s still a lot about his background we just don’t know and he masterfully (and with a lot of help) kept it from us.
As to Charlottesville: this is speculation, but remember that there are decades of experience with groups from the Black Panthers to the Malheur Refuge idiots (and in the latter trials it came out at trial) that the FBI informants were the most militant and hotheaded people in the groups.
You wanna bet that the FBI didn’t have people in both Antifa and the Unite the Right crowd? Do you think that this time the informants were the ones trying to cool things off? Most of the people in both factions came in on chartered buses from out of town; there was even video that purported to show both factions riding the same bus, getting off and then heading off to the riots.
Maybe the video was dezinformatzia; if so it was well done. Heck, maybe it was even Russian dezinformatzia. But I don’t know, and I have other concerns. Not going down that rabbit hole.
As to immigrants: when “illegal” has been defined as a slur, you’re going to get a lot of people who say might as well be hanged for a sheep as a lamb and use something even more offensive to the media enemies. Not saying it’s right, but it happens.
Absolutely! Remember that she’s been in war. So she has expertise on that. That alone should make her entry to the Senate inarguable.
Trump screwed the pooch on Birtherism. He should have pointed out that Obama is willing to lie when it’s to his advantage, and then asked, “Were you lying when you said you were born in Kenya, or are you lying now when you claim you weren’t?” Then, let it drop.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/promotional-booklet/
Of course, Obama can always claim he didn’t proof-read the cover. Why not? The book was likely ghost-written anyway.
As an outsider(not from AZ) looking in it seems like the best plan to retain the (R) seat …. not to mention placing in the Senate a military veteran woman as the face of the (R) Party going into the 2020 election cycle.
But maybe some AZ residents have a better plan.
As an outsider as well, my problem is that I don’t know who else other than her is there to do the job? The only other AZ politicians I know is Chem Trail lady and the Sheriff guy. I assume there are other’s there but I don’t know them.
They probably were disgusted by McSally’s behavior at a Trump Rally.
Doug Ducey won the Governor’s race, without slobbering over Trump at the Trump Rally. (Doug Ducey attendee the Rally, but was properly not a Trump cheerleader.)