Midterm Updates (Live-ish)

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Ricochet Editors' Desk
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9:15 pm ET

Republican Mike Braun is the projected winner of the Indiana Senate race. He was challenging the incumbent Democrat Joe Donnelly, who had been leading in most polls. With 52% of the votes in, Braun is leading, 53.6% – 42.3%.

Republican Marsha Blackburn is also projected to win in Tennessee. With 19.9% of the vote in, Blackburn leads Phil Bredesen 61.9% to 36.9%.

9:30 pm ET

Joe Manchin is projected to hold onto his Senate seat in West Virginia. Manchin leads his challenger, Republican Patrick Morrisey 50.8% to 44.8% with 48.2% of the votes in.

New Jersey Democrat Bob Menendez is also projected to retain his Senate seat. Menendez is leading Bob Hugin 49.4% to 47.4% with 35.5% of the vote in.

9:45 pm ET

https://twitter.com/BenSmithDC/status/1059997553410875393

10:00 pm ET

So far, only Fox News has projected that the Democrats take the House. According to FiveThirtyEight.com, they project a 7 in 9 chance Dems take it.

10:15 pm ET

10:30 pm ET

NBC News and ABC News have now joined Fox in projecting a Democratic-led House.

In Florida, Republican Ron DeSantis is leading Democrat Andrew Gillum for the governorship 48.9% – 49.9% with 98.5% of the vote in. For the Senate, Rick Scott (R) is leading Bob Nelson (D)
49.6% – 50.4%.

10:45 pm ET

Still too early to call, but Hawley (R) is crushing McCaskill in Missouri. With 43.2% of the vote in, Hawley leads 53.4% – 43.4%.

11:00 pm ET

FiveThirtyEight.com is projecting a GOP gain of +3 in the Senate and a Democrat gain of +36 in the House.

11:15 pm ET

For the Arizona Senate, Martha McSally (R) is leading Krysten Sinema (D) 49% – 48% with about 10% of the precincts in. Incumbent Gov. Doug Ducey (R) is crushing his opponent, David Garcia (D), 58% – 40%.

11:30 pm ET

Although the polling looked bad, both the Florida gubernatorial and US Senate races have been called for the GOP.

11:45 pm ET

The Wisconsin governor race is a tight one. With 75% of the votes in, Democrat Tony Evers is leading Republican Scott Walker by … 1,600 votes.

12:00 am ET

12:15 am ET

In what was considered a vulnerable seat, Kristi Noem (R) is projected to defeat Billie Sutton (D) in the South Dakota governor race. With 85% reporting, Noem leads Sutton 51.6% – 47%.

In another tight gubernatorial contest, Kim Reynolds (R) is projected to defeat Fred Hubbell (D) in Iowa. Current numbers are 49.6% – 48.3% with 85.3% of the vote in.

In Wisconsin, Gov. Scott Walker leads his Democratic opponent by 226 votes (85% reporting).

12:30 am ET

In Montana, Democratic incumbent Jon Tester is leading his GOP opponent, Matt Rosendale, 50.6% – 46.5%, with 32% of the vote in.

Only 29% of the precincts are in, but Arizona Senate candidate Martha McSally (R) is holding on to her slim lead over Kyrsten Sinema (D), 49.12% – 48.58%.

12:45 am ET

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1060042976070696960

1:00 am ET

In the Connecticut governor race, Republican Bob Stefanowski is leading Democrat Ned Lamont, 49.0% – 46.3% with 68.8% of the vote in.

With 33% of the vote counted, Martha McSally is leading Kyrsten Sinema in the Arizona Senate race, 49.79% to 49.05%.

1:15 am ET

1:30 am ET

With 51% of the votes in, Montana Senator Jon Tester (D) is leading Matt Rosendale (R) by just 1,048 votes.

1:45 am ET

Nevada numbers are coming in slowly, but with 17% reporting, Dean Heller (R) is leading Jacky Rosen (D) in the Senate race, 49.7% – 46.4%

With 56% of the votes in, Matt Rosendale (R) is leading Montana Senator Jon Tester (D) by 2,134 votes.

In Georgia, Stacy Abrams (D) is refusing to concede to Brian Kemp (R) despite losing the governor’s race by 3% with 97% reporting.

2:00 am ET

The votes are also slow coming from Arizona, but with 47% in, the margin remains nearly the same. Martha McSalley leads Kyrsten Sinema 49.40% to 48.33%.

In Wisconsin, Tony Evers (D) has recovered his lead over Scott Walker (R) but with just 604 votes. 99% reporting.

And with that…

We’re closing the play-by-play coverage for the evening (or should I say morning). Keep posting updates in the comments, night owls!

Published in Elections, Politics
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  1. Clifford A. Brown Member
    Clifford A. Brown
    @CliffordBrown
    4:58 PM EST ⋅ Nov 7, 2018

    RufusRJones (View Comment):

    Is the final Democrat count 219? I can’t figure this out.

    There are undeclared races. I count 9 with the Republican ahead. 

    222 Democrats have won

    197 Republicans have won

    419 races are won, of 435, so

    16 are undecided 

    If Republicans win 9 of these, best case given current stats, Dems gain 7, making the next Congress:

    229 Democrats: 206 Republicans 

    194 Democrats: 241 Republicans at start of current Congress — so:

    35 gain. That is normal. Not on the high or low end.

     

    • #61
  2. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones
    5:03 PM EST ⋅ Nov 7, 2018

    Fox News thinks it will be 234.

    • #62
  3. Clifford A. Brown Member
    Clifford A. Brown
    @CliffordBrown
    1:09 AM EST ⋅ Nov 8, 2018

    RufusRJones (View Comment):

    Fox News thinks it will be 234.

    That is squarely inside the realm of the possible. I did the basic figuring and laid out the numbers, which none of the usual sources bother doing:

    House Call: By the Numbers

    Democrats will have between 229 and 238. They cannot have less or more, based on each and every actual seat’s status. So Fox is just splitting the difference.

     

    • #63
  4. ToryWarWriter Coolidge
    ToryWarWriter
    @ToryWarWriter
    10:47 AM EST ⋅ Nov 8, 2018

    If the best that the Democrats can manage after 2 years of rage and apoplexy against the President is an average result well thats kinda sad.

    The MeTo wave is not the Tea Party.  

    • #64
  5. Clifford A. Brown Member
    Clifford A. Brown
    @CliffordBrown
    11:29 AM EST ⋅ Nov 8, 2018

    ToryWarWriter (View Comment):

    If the best that the Democrats can manage after 2 years of rage and apoplexy against the President is an average result well thats kinda sad.

    The MeTo wave is not the Tea Party.

    Rage by Antifa Mobs, the media (but I repeat myself), and Democrat Representatives.

    • #65
  6. Leigh Inactive
    Leigh
    @Leigh
    2:56 PM EST ⋅ Nov 8, 2018

    ToryWarWriter (View Comment):

    If the best that the Democrats can manage after 2 years of rage and apoplexy against the President is an average result well thats kinda sad.

    The MeTo wave is not the Tea Party.

    No, but the Midwest results should flag some very big concerns for the Trump 2020 campaign.

    • #66
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