Midterm Updates (Live-ish)

 

9:15 pm ET

Republican Mike Braun is the projected winner of the Indiana Senate race. He was challenging the incumbent Democrat Joe Donnelly, who had been leading in most polls. With 52% of the votes in, Braun is leading, 53.6% – 42.3%.

Republican Marsha Blackburn is also projected to win in Tennessee. With 19.9% of the vote in, Blackburn leads Phil Bredesen 61.9% to 36.9%.

9:30 pm ET

Joe Manchin is projected to hold onto his Senate seat in West Virginia. Manchin leads his challenger, Republican Patrick Morrisey 50.8% to 44.8% with 48.2% of the votes in.

New Jersey Democrat Bob Menendez is also projected to retain his Senate seat. Menendez is leading Bob Hugin 49.4% to 47.4% with 35.5% of the vote in.

9:45 pm ET

10:00 pm ET

So far, only Fox News has projected that the Democrats take the House. According to FiveThirtyEight.com, they project a 7 in 9 chance Dems take it.

10:15 pm ET

10:30 pm ET

NBC News and ABC News have now joined Fox in projecting a Democratic-led House.

In Florida, Republican Ron DeSantis is leading Democrat Andrew Gillum for the governorship 48.9% – 49.9% with 98.5% of the vote in. For the Senate, Rick Scott (R) is leading Bob Nelson (D)
49.6% – 50.4%.

10:45 pm ET

Still too early to call, but Hawley (R) is crushing McCaskill in Missouri. With 43.2% of the vote in, Hawley leads 53.4% – 43.4%.

11:00 pm ET

FiveThirtyEight.com is projecting a GOP gain of +3 in the Senate and a Democrat gain of +36 in the House.

11:15 pm ET

For the Arizona Senate, Martha McSally (R) is leading Krysten Sinema (D) 49% – 48% with about 10% of the precincts in. Incumbent Gov. Doug Ducey (R) is crushing his opponent, David Garcia (D), 58% – 40%.

11:30 pm ET

Although the polling looked bad, both the Florida gubernatorial and US Senate races have been called for the GOP.

11:45 pm ET

The Wisconsin governor race is a tight one. With 75% of the votes in, Democrat Tony Evers is leading Republican Scott Walker by … 1,600 votes.

12:00 am ET

12:15 am ET

In what was considered a vulnerable seat, Kristi Noem (R) is projected to defeat Billie Sutton (D) in the South Dakota governor race. With 85% reporting, Noem leads Sutton 51.6% – 47%.

In another tight gubernatorial contest, Kim Reynolds (R) is projected to defeat Fred Hubbell (D) in Iowa. Current numbers are 49.6% – 48.3% with 85.3% of the vote in.

In Wisconsin, Gov. Scott Walker leads his Democratic opponent by 226 votes (85% reporting).

12:30 am ET

In Montana, Democratic incumbent Jon Tester is leading his GOP opponent, Matt Rosendale, 50.6% – 46.5%, with 32% of the vote in.

Only 29% of the precincts are in, but Arizona Senate candidate Martha McSally (R) is holding on to her slim lead over Kyrsten Sinema (D), 49.12% – 48.58%.

12:45 am ET

1:00 am ET

In the Connecticut governor race, Republican Bob Stefanowski is leading Democrat Ned Lamont, 49.0% – 46.3% with 68.8% of the vote in.

With 33% of the vote counted, Martha McSally is leading Kyrsten Sinema in the Arizona Senate race, 49.79% to 49.05%.

1:15 am ET

1:30 am ET

With 51% of the votes in, Montana Senator Jon Tester (D) is leading Matt Rosendale (R) by just 1,048 votes.

1:45 am ET

Nevada numbers are coming in slowly, but with 17% reporting, Dean Heller (R) is leading Jacky Rosen (D) in the Senate race, 49.7% – 46.4%

With 56% of the votes in, Matt Rosendale (R) is leading Montana Senator Jon Tester (D) by 2,134 votes.

In Georgia, Stacy Abrams (D) is refusing to concede to Brian Kemp (R) despite losing the governor’s race by 3% with 97% reporting.

2:00 am ET

The votes are also slow coming from Arizona, but with 47% in, the margin remains nearly the same. Martha McSalley leads Kyrsten Sinema 49.40% to 48.33%.

In Wisconsin, Tony Evers (D) has recovered his lead over Scott Walker (R) but with just 604 votes. 99% reporting.

And with that…

We’re closing the play-by-play coverage for the evening (or should I say morning). Keep posting updates in the comments, night owls!

Published in Elections, Politics
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There are 66 comments.

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  1. Thatcher

    For the love of god his name is Phil Bredesen. lol Oh yeah and he is gonna lose :)

    • #1
    • November 6, 2018 at 6:47 pm
    • 1 like
  2. Chief

    Concretevol (View Comment):
    Phil Bredesen

    Hey, I’m hopped up on hydrocodone. One typo is pretty good!

    • #2
    • November 6, 2018 at 6:54 pm
    • 4 likes
  3. Thatcher

    I don’t really care. Was laughing about how Rob screwed it all up talking about him on the flagship a while back and kept referring to him as the “sitting” governor (he’s not). TN gets no respect i tell ya!

    • #3
    • November 6, 2018 at 7:04 pm
    • 3 likes
  4. Member

    Unfortunately, Senator Warren won in Massachusetts. Ugh. Massachusetts Republicans have run some outstanding candidates for senator in the last twenty years. This is really sad. Sigh. Dumb voters.

    • #4
    • November 6, 2018 at 7:23 pm
    • 3 likes
  5. Member

    The race that had me most freaked out looks like Desantis beats the Socialist.

    Yeay!

    I’m a bit disappointed in how close Nelson and Scott were, but Scott looks like he’s got it.

    • #5
    • November 6, 2018 at 7:31 pm
    • 7 likes
  6. Thatcher

    MarciN (View Comment):

    Unfortunately, Senator Warren won in Massachusetts. Ugh. Massachusetts Republicans have run some outstanding candidates for senator in the last twenty years. This is really sad. Sigh. Dumb voters.

    I think we all know that’s a lifetime seat right?

    • #6
    • November 6, 2018 at 7:50 pm
    • 1 like
  7. Member

    Gillum concedes! Desantis wins florida!

    • #7
    • November 6, 2018 at 7:51 pm
    • 6 likes
  8. Thatcher

    Stina (View Comment):

    Gillum concedes! Desantis wins florida!

    Now that’s funny

    • #8
    • November 6, 2018 at 7:57 pm
    • 1 like
  9. Coolidge

    MarciN (View Comment):

    Unfortunately, Senator Warren won in Massachusetts. Ugh. Massachusetts Republicans have run some outstanding candidates for senator in the last twenty years. This is really sad. Sigh. Dumb voters.

    It isn’t surprising that Warren won, but I had hoped to do better on question 3. Looks like 2/3 of Massachusetts voters have no problem with men going into women’s locker rooms. The results are not totally in yet, but it doesn’t look good.

    • #9
    • November 6, 2018 at 7:58 pm
    • 3 likes
  10. Contributor

    Woohoo!

    Larry Sharpe broke 50,000!

    LP ballot access in NY!

    • #10
    • November 6, 2018 at 8:19 pm
    • 7 likes
  11. Member

    Fred Cole (View Comment):

    Woohoo!

    Larry Sharpe broke 50,000!

    LP ballot access in NY!

    Congrats!

    • #11
    • November 6, 2018 at 8:21 pm
    • 1 like
  12. Contributor

    Why Beto lost:

    • #12
    • November 6, 2018 at 8:37 pm
    • 23 likes
  13. Member

    Wisconsin remains a knife-edge.

    I’m going to go out on a limb and make one prediction about 2020. Here’s some useful advice for everyone: ignore all the other polls in Wisconsin, and look at what the Marquette University Law School poll has to say. They nailed this one (last result was literally a tie). 

    It caught the last-minute movement towards Johnson in 2016, too — and no one else did. It didn’t predict the Trump win, but my personal take on that race is that it shifted at the last minute.

    • #13
    • November 6, 2018 at 9:43 pm
    • 3 likes
  14. Chief

    Mike "Lash" LaRoche (View Comment):

    Why Beto lost:

    HAHAHAHA

    • #14
    • November 6, 2018 at 9:47 pm
    • 1 like
  15. Member

    Ugh that CNN panel.

    Not every election is about future presidential races.

    I am thanking God tonight that we escaped a socialist for governor.

    • #15
    • November 6, 2018 at 9:59 pm
    • 4 likes
  16. Member

    Heitkamp and McCaskill lost. Good for us. The trifecta would be Feinstein losing to her Dem opponent. 

    Fauxcahontas? well, it is MA!😝

    I just don’t get the crestfallen Dems…they just can’t be happy unless they get ALL the cake, and eat it too. 

    • #16
    • November 6, 2018 at 10:03 pm
    • 3 likes
  17. Member

    Leigh (View Comment):

    Wisconsin remains a knife-edge.

    I’m going to go out on a limb and make one prediction about 2020. Here’s some useful advice for everyone: ignore all the other polls in Wisconsin, and look at what the Marquette University Law School poll has to say. They nailed this one (last result was literally a tie).

    It caught the last-minute movement towards Johnson in 2016, too — and no one else did. It didn’t predict the Trump win, but my personal take on that race is that it shifted at the last minute.

    I think on the latter it’s more that the people who made the difference were never polled. Not that the pollsters might not have tried, but the people who they were trying to reach didn’t bother talking to them. 

    • #17
    • November 6, 2018 at 10:07 pm
    • 4 likes
  18. Member

    Matt Balzer, Straw Bootlegger (View Comment):

    Leigh (View Comment):

    Wisconsin remains a knife-edge.

    I’m going to go out on a limb and make one prediction about 2020. Here’s some useful advice for everyone: ignore all the other polls in Wisconsin, and look at what the Marquette University Law School poll has to say. They nailed this one (last result was literally a tie).

    It caught the last-minute movement towards Johnson in 2016, too — and no one else did. It didn’t predict the Trump win, but my personal take on that race is that it shifted at the last minute.

    I think on the latter it’s more that the people who made the difference were never polled. Not that the pollsters might not have tried, but the people who they were trying to reach didn’t bother talking to them.

    I think that happens, but I do think there was a last-minute shift. Undecideds broke hard to Trump (or against Clinton.)

    From what I’m reading now looks like it’s going to fall on the wrong side of the knife edge this time — the remaining votes are in the wrong places. I don’t think Walker is quite going to pull it out. But it’s so close.

    • #18
    • November 6, 2018 at 10:22 pm
    • 1 like
  19. Contributor

    Texas was a shocker. Arizona’s system of tallying the votes is not designed for instant gratification. So, we’ll see on Thursday.

    There were 5 state-wide propositions in Arizona. The crazy California energy scam, with the campaign funded by a California billionaire, appears to be doing down to resounding defeat. The proposal to “permit the state to adjust certain benefits in the corrections officers’ and elected officials’ retirement systems to alleviate pension underfunding” has a narrow “Yes” lead. These are both big fiscal sanity items, showing we are not truly Californicated.

    • #19
    • November 6, 2018 at 10:29 pm
    • 4 likes
  20. Member

    Bad precedent Fox News calling the House for Democrats without being willing to call many specific House races. Looks like it will not be the runaway Democrat majority/rout predicted by many for many weeks and months.

    I expect to see/hear much discussion about Republicans who lost in marginal, more “purple” (or at least not red) races. Considering health care was a top concern for them, they may have won had the House passed health care legislation. If so, the GOP who found it impossible to coalesce can thank themselves for losing their majority…and the single person most responsible for setting that bill’s agenda and getting GOP votes: Paul Ryan, not Donald Trump.

    • #20
    • November 6, 2018 at 10:30 pm
    • 10 likes
  21. Member

    Mim526 (View Comment):
    If so, the GOP who found it impossible to coalesce can thank themselves for losing their majority…and the single person most responsible for setting that bill’s agenda and getting GOP votes: Paul Ryan, not Donald Trump.

    And the flood of retirees.

    • #21
    • November 6, 2018 at 10:32 pm
    • 1 like
  22. Member

    Mim526 (View Comment):
    Considering health care was a top concern for them, they may have won had the House passed health care legislation.

    The House did pass health care legislation. Senate failure. This new Senate would have passed it, too. 

    • #22
    • November 6, 2018 at 10:35 pm
    • 7 likes
  23. Contributor

    Mim526 (View Comment):

    Bad precedent Fox News calling the House for Democrats without being willing to call many specific House races. Looks like it will not be the runaway Democrat majority/rout predicted by many for many weeks and months.

    I expect to see/hear much discussion about Republicans who lost in marginal, more “purple” (or at least not red) races. Considering health care was a top concern for them, they may have won had the House passed health care legislation. If so, the GOP who found it impossible to coalesce can thank themselves for losing their majority…and the single person most responsible for setting that bill’s agenda and getting GOP votes: Paul Ryan, not Donald Trump.

    Comment by another election evening watcher, recent conservative convert, “I haven’t heard much from the Speaker for a while.” Yup. With a large number of retiring members, the caucus couldn’t pull itself together to replace the “coach” when he announced his retirement at the beginning of the political “season.” So, yup.

    I look for Steve Scalise, as the most vocal leader now, to surge to Minority Leader, replacing Kevin McCarthy. A much better match for the Democrats and with the most powerful personal story against the Democrats, which Scalise has used repeatedly in the past month, calling them out for condoning political violence.

    • #23
    • November 6, 2018 at 10:37 pm
    • 10 likes
  24. Contributor

    1 Did that feel like the most important election of our times? 

    2 On the BBC today they were talking about how a D House majority would make it difficult for President Trump to pass his legislative agenda, and I thought: which is what, exactly? I’m content to keep the Senate and stock the judiciary, and let the House posture for two years and accomplish squat besides a blizzard of theatrical indictments. 

    3 Midterms are a sugar-rush for the opposition sometimes; best not to extrapolate the future of the Republic from this moment. 

    4 I suspect the Ds will conclude that MOAR GUMMINT was the message, and if they didn’t swamp the levees as much as they’d like, it was because they didn’t push MOAR GUMMINT enough, setting up a 2020 nom for a candidate who wants Medicaid for all and free college.

    • #24
    • November 6, 2018 at 10:54 pm
    • 13 likes
  25. Podcaster

    Mim526: Bad precedent Fox News calling the House for Democrats without being willing to call many specific House races. Looks like it will not be the runaway Democrat majority/rout predicted by many for many weeks and months.

    You might be able to say bad things about Roger Ailes but that would not have happened if he were alive and kicking in the FNC penthouse. 

    • #25
    • November 6, 2018 at 10:59 pm
    • 4 likes
  26. Contributor

    In Georgia, Stacy Abrams (D) is refusing to concede to Brian Kemp (R) despite losing the governor’s race by 3% with 97% reporting.

    Naturally, because #Resistance. Doubtless, Boris and Natasha whispered in the ears of the hillbillies, so the Republican cannot be the legitimate winner.

    • #26
    • November 6, 2018 at 11:01 pm
    • 4 likes
  27. Contributor

    Clifford A. Brown (View Comment):

    Texas was a shocker.

    Cruz should have won re-election by the same margin as Abbott. He has a real likability problem.

    • #27
    • November 6, 2018 at 11:03 pm
    • 8 likes
  28. Member

    Looks like Wisconsin is done, with a painfully close loss. Wasn’t overly optimistic going in, but was really hoping for a while there.

    Republicans will be asking some tough questions about how Milwaukee had 45000 votes sitting around until the last minute. 

    • #28
    • November 6, 2018 at 11:05 pm
    • 7 likes
  29. Member

    James Lileks (View Comment):
    Did that feel like the most important election of our times?

    It was a bit of an unprecedented turn out for a mid term, wasn’t it?

    And yeah… I still think it was a pretty important one.

    Doesn’t feel like it when we succeeded in a lock, but elections lack a pretty huge metric of struggle that war has in spades… after the battle is won, you really have no indication of how close it really was. We aren’t burying dead. Just analyzing numbers and playing statistical games with the other side.

    This election was a big deal to me, though. Gillum would have been disastrous for my state. In a HUGE way.

    • #29
    • November 6, 2018 at 11:05 pm
    • 5 likes
  30. Contributor

    It looks like there’s some skullduggery going on with the Wisconsin gubernatorial race.

    • #30
    • November 6, 2018 at 11:05 pm
    • Like
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