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Midterm Updates (Live-ish)
9:15 pm ET
Republican Mike Braun is the projected winner of the Indiana Senate race. He was challenging the incumbent Democrat Joe Donnelly, who had been leading in most polls. With 52% of the votes in, Braun is leading, 53.6% – 42.3%.
Republican Marsha Blackburn is also projected to win in Tennessee. With 19.9% of the vote in, Blackburn leads Phil Bredesen 61.9% to 36.9%.
James Carville: I See Chances of a Blue Wave ‘Dissipating’ https://t.co/jNrUXE6teQ pic.twitter.com/HVR3Ct7xn7
— Mediaite (@Mediaite) November 7, 2018
9:30 pm ET
Joe Manchin is projected to hold onto his Senate seat in West Virginia. Manchin leads his challenger, Republican Patrick Morrisey 50.8% to 44.8% with 48.2% of the votes in.
New Jersey Democrat Bob Menendez is also projected to retain his Senate seat. Menendez is leading Bob Hugin 49.4% to 47.4% with 35.5% of the vote in.
Among the supporters tonight @SenatorMenendez’s HQ is Evelyn Arroyo-Maultsby, a juror on his federal corruption trial. She achieved some fame when she left the jury last year during deliberations to go on vacation. She would’ve voted for acquittal. @northjersey pic.twitter.com/mVNSJdwGtK
— Scott Fallon (@NewsFallon) November 7, 2018
CNN's Jake Tapper: "When you look at what is going on here tonight, this is not a blue wave." pic.twitter.com/jxmfMQ2QPe
— Ryan Saavedra (@RealSaavedra) November 7, 2018
9:45 pm ET
https://twitter.com/BenSmithDC/status/1059997553410875393
I'm calling Florida Senate for Rick Scott. Not enough votes left in Broward, Miami and Palm Beach to gain 76,000 votes. That's the second GOP Senate gain and eliminated the possibility of Democratic Senate control.
— Henry Olsen (@henryolsenEPPC) November 7, 2018
10:00 pm ET
So far, only Fox News has projected that the Democrats take the House. According to FiveThirtyEight.com, they project a 7 in 9 chance Dems take it.
At just under 40% of precincts reporting so far, Republican Brian Kemp is leading in the Georgia gubernatorial race against Stacey Abrams.
Live results: https://t.co/fSzpDWxXyc pic.twitter.com/T0IS4vNrfm
— POLITICO (@politico) November 7, 2018
NBC News: Laura Kelly (D) defeats Kris Kobach(R) in KS GOV. Democratic gain
— Mike Memoli (@mikememoli) November 7, 2018
Van Jones on CNN: 'This Is Heartbreaking' https://t.co/U9DHals3uf
— Caleb Howe (@CalebHowe) November 7, 2018
10:15 pm ET
JUST IN: Republican Rep. Kevin Cramer projected to defeat Democrat Sen. Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota https://t.co/4yNg8n30sj pic.twitter.com/7Ryss9sNDb
— Fox News (@FoxNews) November 7, 2018
BREAKING: Republican incumbent Ted Cruz will win Texas' U.S. Senate race, defeating Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke, @ABC projects based on vote analysis https://t.co/QKK9VJilpS pic.twitter.com/NIchNubKco
— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) November 7, 2018
BREAKING: With Cruz victory in Texas, @NBCNews projects Republicans control the Senate.https://t.co/6pqqY4AD1c
— NBC News (@NBCNews) November 7, 2018
10:30 pm ET
NBC News and ABC News have now joined Fox in projecting a Democratic-led House.
In Florida, Republican Ron DeSantis is leading Democrat Andrew Gillum for the governorship 48.9% – 49.9% with 98.5% of the vote in. For the Senate, Rick Scott (R) is leading Bob Nelson (D)
49.6% – 50.4%.
10:45 pm ET
Still too early to call, but Hawley (R) is crushing McCaskill in Missouri. With 43.2% of the vote in, Hawley leads 53.4% – 43.4%.
NBC News projects Mike DeWine (R) wins Ohio, where D"s had big hopes. Sherrod Brown, who's winning easily, has built some personal brand there.
— Benjy Sarlin (@BenjySarlin) November 7, 2018
11:00 pm ET
.@AndrewGillum has conceded to Gov.-elect @RonDeSantisFL, multiple sources say. #FlaPol
— Peter Schorsch (@PeterSchorschFL) November 7, 2018
FiveThirtyEight.com is projecting a GOP gain of +3 in the Senate and a Democrat gain of +36 in the House.
11:15 pm ET
For the Arizona Senate, Martha McSally (R) is leading Krysten Sinema (D) 49% – 48% with about 10% of the precincts in. Incumbent Gov. Doug Ducey (R) is crushing his opponent, David Garcia (D), 58% – 40%.
The Fox News Decision Desk can now project that Republican Attorney General Josh Hawley will oust two-term Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill in one of the most closely watched races in the country. pic.twitter.com/TaWK5PE3xM
— Bret Baier (@BretBaier) November 7, 2018
Blue Wave Downgraded To Gentle Misthttps://t.co/t8zLEq9508 pic.twitter.com/kS4Paxmdnb
— The Babylon Bee (@TheBabylonBee) November 7, 2018
Tremendous success tonight. Thank you to all!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 7, 2018
11:30 pm ET
BREAKING: Republican John James concedes U.S. Senate race to Debbie Stabenow. #Decision2018 Election Night coverage continues: https://t.co/hC2RhNvle5
— WOODRADIO (@WOODRADIO) November 7, 2018
Every Democratic Senator in a red state who voted against Judge Kavanaugh has so far lost their election.
— Senator John Cornyn (@JohnCornyn) November 7, 2018
Although the polling looked bad, both the Florida gubernatorial and US Senate races have been called for the GOP.
11:45 pm ET
The Wisconsin governor race is a tight one. With 75% of the votes in, Democrat Tony Evers is leading Republican Scott Walker by … 1,600 votes.
I predicted McSally would beat Sinema by 0.87%.
So far, McSally is leading Sinema by 0.93%.
I apologize for the error.— jon gabriel (@exjon) November 7, 2018
12:00 am ET
CNN's @DanaBashCNN: Democrats have suffered “big heartbreaks” in 2018 midterm election. pic.twitter.com/hup2FiQ8H5
— Steve Guest (@SteveGuest) November 7, 2018
Mitt Romney is the first person to serve as governor one state and senator from another in 173 years. Last was Sam Houston, who served as Gov of TN and Sen from TX.
— Marc Thiessen (@marcthiessen) November 7, 2018
12:15 am ET
In what was considered a vulnerable seat, Kristi Noem (R) is projected to defeat Billie Sutton (D) in the South Dakota governor race. With 85% reporting, Noem leads Sutton 51.6% – 47%.
In another tight gubernatorial contest, Kim Reynolds (R) is projected to defeat Fred Hubbell (D) in Iowa. Current numbers are 49.6% – 48.3% with 85.3% of the vote in.
In Wisconsin, Gov. Scott Walker leads his Democratic opponent by 226 votes (85% reporting).
12:30 am ET
Rove says on Fox that Pelosi is going to "break" the new Dems who promised not to vote for her. "Their first vote" will the one they promised they'd never make, he said with a grin.
— Caleb Howe (@CalebHowe) November 7, 2018
In Montana, Democratic incumbent Jon Tester is leading his GOP opponent, Matt Rosendale, 50.6% – 46.5%, with 32% of the vote in.
Only 29% of the precincts are in, but Arizona Senate candidate Martha McSally (R) is holding on to her slim lead over Kyrsten Sinema (D), 49.12% – 48.58%.
12:45 am ET
MINNEAPOLIS (AP) — Keith Ellison wins Minnesota attorney general race amid allegations from an ex-girlfriend that he once physically abused her.
— Nick Riccardi (@NickRiccardi) November 7, 2018
Scott Walker is now 2,400 votes ahead, 92% in. #WIGOV
— David Freddoso (@freddoso) November 7, 2018
https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1060042976070696960
1:00 am ET
The D cavalry. https://t.co/3LSVkXqEjh
— Dan McLaughlin (@baseballcrank) November 7, 2018
In the Connecticut governor race, Republican Bob Stefanowski is leading Democrat Ned Lamont, 49.0% – 46.3% with 68.8% of the vote in.
With 33% of the vote counted, Martha McSally is leading Kyrsten Sinema in the Arizona Senate race, 49.79% to 49.05%.
1:15 am ET
BREAKING: Republican Devin Nunes wins re-election to U.S. House in California's 22nd congressional district. #APracecall at 10:04 p.m. PST. @AP election coverage: https://t.co/miEWlbTVZW #Election2018 #CAelection
— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) November 7, 2018
4 out of the 4 candidates that Obama campaigned for lost tonight.
— Aaron J. Carpenter🇺🇸 (@aaronjcarpenter) November 7, 2018
BREAKING: @MarthaMcSally election night party wrapping now as official do not expect to have a final decision in hotly contested Arizona Senate election tonight. May have to wait a day or two. @CBSNews #ElectionNight2018 #Arizona https://t.co/VUuKMzGFTr
— Paula Reid (@PaulaReidCBS) November 7, 2018
1:30 am ET
#MTsen 54% in:
Tester 🔵 48.7
Rosendale 🔴 48.4%— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 7, 2018
#GAGov 99% in:
Brian Kemp 🔴51%
Stacey Abrams 🔵48%— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 7, 2018
With 51% of the votes in, Montana Senator Jon Tester (D) is leading Matt Rosendale (R) by just 1,048 votes.
1:45 am ET
Nevada numbers are coming in slowly, but with 17% reporting, Dean Heller (R) is leading Jacky Rosen (D) in the Senate race, 49.7% – 46.4%
With 56% of the votes in, Matt Rosendale (R) is leading Montana Senator Jon Tester (D) by 2,134 votes.
In Georgia, Stacy Abrams (D) is refusing to concede to Brian Kemp (R) despite losing the governor’s race by 3% with 97% reporting.
2:00 am ET
The votes are also slow coming from Arizona, but with 47% in, the margin remains nearly the same. Martha McSalley leads Kyrsten Sinema 49.40% to 48.33%.
In Wisconsin, Tony Evers (D) has recovered his lead over Scott Walker (R) but with just 604 votes. 99% reporting.
And with that…
We’re closing the play-by-play coverage for the evening (or should I say morning). Keep posting updates in the comments, night owls!
Published in Elections, Politics
For the love of god his name is Phil Bredesen. lol Oh yeah and he is gonna lose :)
Hey, I’m hopped up on hydrocodone. One typo is pretty good!
I don’t really care. Was laughing about how Rob screwed it all up talking about him on the flagship a while back and kept referring to him as the “sitting” governor (he’s not). TN gets no respect i tell ya!
Unfortunately, Senator Warren won in Massachusetts. Ugh. Massachusetts Republicans have run some outstanding candidates for senator in the last twenty years. This is really sad. Sigh. Dumb voters.
The race that had me most freaked out looks like Desantis beats the Socialist.
Yeay!
I’m a bit disappointed in how close Nelson and Scott were, but Scott looks like he’s got it.
I think we all know that’s a lifetime seat right?
Gillum concedes! Desantis wins florida!
Now that’s funny
It isn’t surprising that Warren won, but I had hoped to do better on question 3. Looks like 2/3 of Massachusetts voters have no problem with men going into women’s locker rooms. The results are not totally in yet, but it doesn’t look good.
Woohoo!
Larry Sharpe broke 50,000!
LP ballot access in NY!
Congrats!
Why Beto lost:
Wisconsin remains a knife-edge.
I’m going to go out on a limb and make one prediction about 2020. Here’s some useful advice for everyone: ignore all the other polls in Wisconsin, and look at what the Marquette University Law School poll has to say. They nailed this one (last result was literally a tie).
It caught the last-minute movement towards Johnson in 2016, too — and no one else did. It didn’t predict the Trump win, but my personal take on that race is that it shifted at the last minute.
HAHAHAHA
Ugh that CNN panel.
Not every election is about future presidential races.
I am thanking God tonight that we escaped a socialist for governor.
Heitkamp and McCaskill lost. Good for us. The trifecta would be Feinstein losing to her Dem opponent.
Fauxcahontas? well, it is MA!😝
I just don’t get the crestfallen Dems…they just can’t be happy unless they get ALL the cake, and eat it too.
I think on the latter it’s more that the people who made the difference were never polled. Not that the pollsters might not have tried, but the people who they were trying to reach didn’t bother talking to them.
I think that happens, but I do think there was a last-minute shift. Undecideds broke hard to Trump (or against Clinton.)
From what I’m reading now looks like it’s going to fall on the wrong side of the knife edge this time — the remaining votes are in the wrong places. I don’t think Walker is quite going to pull it out. But it’s so close.
Texas was a shocker. Arizona’s system of tallying the votes is not designed for instant gratification. So, we’ll see on Thursday.
There were 5 state-wide propositions in Arizona. The crazy California energy scam, with the campaign funded by a California billionaire, appears to be doing down to resounding defeat. The proposal to “permit the state to adjust certain benefits in the corrections officers’ and elected officials’ retirement systems to alleviate pension underfunding” has a narrow “Yes” lead. These are both big fiscal sanity items, showing we are not truly Californicated.
Bad precedent Fox News calling the House for Democrats without being willing to call many specific House races. Looks like it will not be the runaway Democrat majority/rout predicted by many for many weeks and months.
I expect to see/hear much discussion about Republicans who lost in marginal, more “purple” (or at least not red) races. Considering health care was a top concern for them, they may have won had the House passed health care legislation. If so, the GOP who found it impossible to coalesce can thank themselves for losing their majority…and the single person most responsible for setting that bill’s agenda and getting GOP votes: Paul Ryan, not Donald Trump.
And the flood of retirees.
The House did pass health care legislation. Senate failure. This new Senate would have passed it, too.
Comment by another election evening watcher, recent conservative convert, “I haven’t heard much from the Speaker for a while.” Yup. With a large number of retiring members, the caucus couldn’t pull itself together to replace the “coach” when he announced his retirement at the beginning of the political “season.” So, yup.
I look for Steve Scalise, as the most vocal leader now, to surge to Minority Leader, replacing Kevin McCarthy. A much better match for the Democrats and with the most powerful personal story against the Democrats, which Scalise has used repeatedly in the past month, calling them out for condoning political violence.
1 Did that feel like the most important election of our times?
2 On the BBC today they were talking about how a D House majority would make it difficult for President Trump to pass his legislative agenda, and I thought: which is what, exactly? I’m content to keep the Senate and stock the judiciary, and let the House posture for two years and accomplish squat besides a blizzard of theatrical indictments.
3 Midterms are a sugar-rush for the opposition sometimes; best not to extrapolate the future of the Republic from this moment.
4 I suspect the Ds will conclude that MOAR GUMMINT was the message, and if they didn’t swamp the levees as much as they’d like, it was because they didn’t push MOAR GUMMINT enough, setting up a 2020 nom for a candidate who wants Medicaid for all and free college.
You might be able to say bad things about Roger Ailes but that would not have happened if he were alive and kicking in the FNC penthouse.
Naturally, because #Resistance. Doubtless, Boris and Natasha whispered in the ears of the hillbillies, so the Republican cannot be the legitimate winner.
Cruz should have won re-election by the same margin as Abbott. He has a real likability problem.
Looks like Wisconsin is done, with a painfully close loss. Wasn’t overly optimistic going in, but was really hoping for a while there.
Republicans will be asking some tough questions about how Milwaukee had 45000 votes sitting around until the last minute.
It was a bit of an unprecedented turn out for a mid term, wasn’t it?
And yeah… I still think it was a pretty important one.
Doesn’t feel like it when we succeeded in a lock, but elections lack a pretty huge metric of struggle that war has in spades… after the battle is won, you really have no indication of how close it really was. We aren’t burying dead. Just analyzing numbers and playing statistical games with the other side.
This election was a big deal to me, though. Gillum would have been disastrous for my state. In a HUGE way.
It looks like there’s some skullduggery going on with the Wisconsin gubernatorial race.