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Spoiler: Trump won the 2016 elections and it had nothing to do with the Russians.
President Trump won the election fair and square. In truth, the big reveal in all of this is that Democrats have been losing since President Obama took office.
Russians have been trying to influence our elections for decades. We’ve tried to influence their elections and many other elections around the world. This is nothing new.
The accusation from the Left is that Russians changed the results of the election with their subverted influence to install Donald Trump over Clinton. There is zero evidence that any of that is true.
On the other hand, we have loads of evidence that Democrats have been losing elections for years.
That’s right, before Russian agents convinced Donna Brazille to leak debate questions to the Clinton campaign; before Kremlin spies posed as underage hotties to take down Anthony Weiner; before foreign agents convince John Podesta to use an absurdly easy password to hack and months before Vladimir Putin personally disguised himself as a plumber to fix Hillary’s email server and hack into the DNC… Republicans have been winning elections and turning the country red.
Here’s the proof.
Obama’s Terrible Coattails
During his tenure as head of the Democrats, President Obama’s coattails lead to the loss of 1,036 elected seats on the Federal and state level. Presidents always lose seats but this is a record:
Republicans Gain Traction
As you can see from the table above, if you compare successive Presidential elections by county and by party we find:
- In 2012, President Obama garnered fewer votes than he did in 2008 in 2779 counties. 333 counties showed up for Obama with higher vote tallies.
- By comparison, the GOP between 2012 and 2008 (Romney compared to McCain) locked down higher vote totals in 1832 counties to their camp. It wasn’t enough. (Full disclosure: I headed up part of the digital team for the Romney campaign.)
- 2016 vs. 2012 (Clinton vs. Trump compared to Obama vs. Romney) Dems set another losing record with fewer votes turned out in 2710 US counties across all states. The GOP by comparison (again… just against their turnout in 2012) garnered 2534 counties with more vote totals.
- If you look at 2016 vs. 2008 it gets really scary for Democrats losing votes in 2920 counties and Republicans racking up more votes for President in 2366 counties.
Democrats Losing Battleground States and Blue Strongholds
2008 was a banner year in Presidential election history but looking at the data on battleground states across the three elections demonstrates something more going on than fake Facebook posts about the Pope endorsing Trump turning the election.
Looking at the three states which primarily impacted the 2016 election the county + or — votes make it clear the Democrats are just not getting it:
If you compare the number of counties with more or fewer votes across all of the major Battleground states the results are the same:
In 2008, Obama handed us Republicans our hats — and we dutifully took to self-reflection, eating that hat, humble pie and anything else that would help us win in the future. We formed Tea Party movements, focused on our own elected officials and drove engagement against Obama and in favor of lower taxes, smaller government and core societal values that drive economic growth and national security.
Bottom line: Trends across elections matter. Democrats must stop this losing trend to stop losing elections. But I encourage them to chase the Russian rabbit and the hidden Nazis among us. That’ll work.
Hillary Was A Lousy Candidate
In Pennsylvania, for example, Trump received 2,970,733 and Hillary received 2,926,441 votes. The margin was 44,292 votes. However, looking at the trajectory of elections. Trump received 290,299 more votes than Governor Romney. Hillary received 63,000 fewer votes than President Obama.
If you combine the three key states which put Trump over the top, PA, WI, and MI, Donald Trump brought in 455,307 more votes than Romney. Hillary Clinton on the other hand (wait for it) received nearly 600,000 fewer votes than Obama in 2012.
That’s a lot of people that Russian agents must have bribed via Facebook shares to change the election outcome.
Losing in 2016 Even Before the Hacks Happened
On November 4th I declared that Trump was going to win the election based on Gallup’s voter registration polls and one other key data set: Pennsylvania party registrations.
You see, Pennsylvania is one of the few states that tracks not only party registrations but also how many people moved from one party to another.
The PA Secretary of State shows over 88,000 Democrats switched their affiliation to Republican in 2016. Only 33,000 Republicans moved in the opposite direction. All together, 103,000 voters switched from the two core parties to third parties or unaffiliated status.
75% of all of those registrations happened, wait for it … before the primary elections in April.
Influencing the Elections?
All of those fake stories planted by the Russians must have influenced the election right?
As one study by an NYU professor put it: “for fake news to have changed the outcome of the election, a single fake article would need to have had the same persuasive effect as 36 television campaign ads.”
NPR investigated the Fake News angle and found that one of the biggest purveyors of this propaganda lives in L.A. and is a registered Democrat.
In the end, there was no Russian infiltration of our elections rather there were Democrats ignoring the plight of Americans, ramping up regulations against them and driving Democrat voters to Donald Trump in droves.