October Surprises Breaking Republicans’ Way?

 

It is axiomatic that, each October, the media will unveil embarrassing, negative, damaging things about Republican candidates. The timing is intended to hurt Republicans and help Democrats at the ballot box. If the media doesn’t do it, a Republican self-sabotages. 2018 is different.

Media Revelations 

In Texas, “Beto” O’Rourke, was hit with a bad DUI story, including him trying to flee the scene.

In Tennessee, staffers were caught on video saying Bredesen lied about his willingness to confirm Kavanaugh, to trick moderate voters.

In Arizona, multiple videos appeared, in which Kyrsten Sinema calls Arizonans “crazy,” Arizona the “meth lab of democracy,” and goes beyond the pink tutu anti-war image to apparently condoning Americans going to fight for the Taliban. When Martha McSally challenged her, during their debate, on the Taliban comment, Sinema refused to answer. CNN not only did not deny this, they ran the clip and had a commentator explain Sinema used to be more progressive, even Green Party, but now was running as a centrist. To which, Scott Johnson of PowerLine says:

Andrew McCarthy now lays out the facts regarding Sinema’s promotion of terrorist lawyer Lynne Stewart.

Lynne Stewart didn’t just represent terrorists. She took on their cause as her own. She herself supported terrorism and went to prison for it.

Sinema promoted Stewart’s campus appearances in 2003 while she was under indictment. […] [Stewart] was utterly unapologetic about her behavior. Indeed, she was proud of it. […]

Sinema and Ellison deploy the same generic lies to misrepresent their own past support of the terrorist lawyer (in Sinema’s case) and cop killers (in Ellison’s case). They are two peas in a pod, perfect faces of the Democratic Party.

Self-sabotage 

In Florida, Bill Nelson’s campaign mass email provided links for Hurricane Michael relief donations. Except Nelson’s email reportedly pointed to ActBlue sites, Democrat political fundraising pages. Then his colleague said “hold my beer.”

Heidi Heitkamp thought she had a great hammer to smash her way back to office, with an ad about believing and respecting sexual assault victims. Except she did not have permission to use several of these victims’ names or faces! Her Twitter feed became a stream of abject apologies.

With the Kavanaugh circus, the entire Senate Democratic caucus inflicted a massive hit on their members, and would be members, running for the Senate this year. It is not over. Senator Susan Collins’ husband opened a threatening letter, at their home, that claimed to be contaminated with ricin.

Collins has received a rash ofcriticism in the wake of the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation process. She said her “yes” vote on Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the United States Supreme Court“ranks right up there” with the hardest votes she has ever cast in the senate. Her spokesperson said that the letter is just the latest in a “series of threats” against the Senator and her loved ones.

Meanwhile, alumni and faculty at St. Lawrence University, Collins’ alma mater, are calling on university officials to rescind an honorary degree awarded to her as punishment for voting to confirm Kavanaugh.

But what is next?

See the source imageSurely there is more. What of Mueller? It turns out that President Trump is now holding a ten-pound sledgehammer over the heads of Mueller, Rosenstein, and our special friends across the pond, complicit in the Russia Hoax. If he orders immediate and full compliance with long-standing Congressional demands for complete, unredacted document production, there will be a scandal with more damage to the image of the FBI than was caused by the Church Committee revelations. It isn’t over until the last ballot is cast, and counted, but 2018 is not going according to the usual script. @ejhill likely has it right: “The Great Unknown is Us.”

There are 68 comments.

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  1. Jules PA Member

    Clifford A. Brown: It isn’t over until the last ballot is cast, and counted, but 2018 is not going according to the usual script.

    Amen. Count our blessings. 

    • #1
    • October 16, 2018, at 4:57 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
  2. Judge Mental Member

    I thought Trump should have ordered the release of the documents in the immediate wake of the Kavanaugh debacle. Kick them when they’re ‘low’.

    • #2
    • October 16, 2018, at 5:04 PM PDT
    • 8 likes
  3. RightAngles Member

    I posted about Beto’s DWI! This is the first I’ve heard about Nelson. What a bunch of lowlifes.

    • #3
    • October 16, 2018, at 5:06 PM PDT
    • 6 likes
  4. Clifford A. Brown Contributor
    Clifford A. Brown Post author

    RightAngles (View Comment):

    I posted about Beto’s DWI! This is the first I’ve heard about Nelson. What a bunch of lowlifes.

    Thanks for reminding me. Added that link.

    • #4
    • October 16, 2018, at 5:24 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
  5. Clifford A. Brown Contributor
    Clifford A. Brown Post author

    Judge Mental (View Comment):

    I thought Trump should have ordered the release of the documents in the immediate wake of the Kavanaugh debacle. Kick them when they’re ‘low’.

    The risk he is balancing is severe damage to the British Conservative government. He got frantic calls from two foreign leaders the day he demanded full production of documents, and gave that as a reason for not immediately releasing everything. That would be Theresa May and the new Australian PM. I believe May’s intelligence services must figure out who to sacrifice, for the sake of the service’s long term relationship with American intelligence. The problem is, was May briefed? Obama and his team probably know the answer, and would leak it if necessary.

    • #5
    • October 16, 2018, at 5:30 PM PDT
    • 7 likes
  6. Judge Mental Member

    Clifford A. Brown (View Comment):

    Judge Mental (View Comment):

    I thought Trump should have ordered the release of the documents in the immediate wake of the Kavanaugh debacle. Kick them when they’re ‘low’.

    The risk he is balancing is severe damage to the British Conservative government. He got frantic calls from two foreign leaders the day he demanded full production of documents, and gave that as a reason for not immediately releasing everything. That would be Theresa May and the new Australian PM. I believe May’s intelligence services must figure out who to sacrifice, for the sake of the service’s long term relationship with American intelligence. The problem is, was May briefed? Obama and his team probably know the answer, and would leak it if necessary.

    I think Beretta said it best. “Don’t do the crime if you can’t do the time.”

    • #6
    • October 16, 2018, at 5:32 PM PDT
    • 7 likes
  7. RightAngles Member

    Clifford A. Brown (View Comment):

    RightAngles (View Comment):

    I posted about Beto’s DWI! This is the first I’ve heard about Nelson. What a bunch of lowlifes.

    Thanks for reminding me. Added that link.

    Oh ok thanks. I didn’t mean that haha. My post is getting kind of old by now anyway. But there can’t be too many posts about this charlatan. I don’t really think he can beat Cruz, not in Texas, but I’m a little surprised at how close it is. It shouldn’t have been. It must be due to all Beto’s out of state money. It really makes me sick.

    I’ve had texts, phone calls, and Beto volunteers at my front door. He’s really saturating the coverage. I even saw a Beto commercial while streaming TubiTV on my Roku.

    • #7
    • October 16, 2018, at 5:34 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
  8. Gary Robbins Reagan

    This is the tale of two elections.

    According to 538, the odds of Republicans holding the Senate are up to 4 out of 5 (80.6 to 19.4%), while the odds of the Democrats taking the House are 6 out of 7 (84.8 to 15.2%).

    Americans don’t like what happened to Kavanaugh which is why we will hold the Senate, and they don’t like Trump and want a check on him which is why the House will flip to the Democrats.

    • #8
    • October 16, 2018, at 5:55 PM PDT
    • 1 like
  9. Clifford A. Brown Contributor
    Clifford A. Brown Post author

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    This is the tale of two elections.

    According to 538, the odds of Republicans holding the Senate are up to 4 out of 5 (80.6 to 19.4%), while the odds of the Democrats taking the House are 6 out of 7 (84.8 to 15.2%).

    Americans don’t like what happened to Kavanaugh which is why we will hold the Senate, and they don’t like Trump and want a check on him which is why the House will flip to the Democrats.

    I see the polling data, while recognizing it is never very precise (by nature) for the House. Given the behavior of Democrats, the notion that voters’ reactions would be compartmentalized to Senate races is rather suspect. That said, as Salena Zito has repeatedly written, it is on each candidate to understand and respond to the needs of their district. I think @ejhill has it about right: “The Great Unknown is Us.”

    • #9
    • October 16, 2018, at 6:14 PM PDT
    • 9 likes
  10. RightAngles Member

    Beto and Cruz are debating on TV right now. He can’t win. I can’t look at those teeth for a whole term.

    • #10
    • October 16, 2018, at 6:48 PM PDT
    • 8 likes
  11. Lash LaRoche Inactive

    If Democrat candidates are exposed for who they really are, they lose.

    • #11
    • October 16, 2018, at 7:38 PM PDT
    • 6 likes
  12. DonG Coolidge

    Is saw a generic ballot survey and GOP was +1 *over* Dems in competitive districts. I am guessing the blue districts turn very blue and GOP holds the house. 

    Early voting has started, so the October surprises better not wait any longer. It seemed like Nikki Haley announcement would be a thing, but then 10 giant news items followed. A story would need to be huge to stick around at this news pace.

    Bobby “Beto” O’Rourke did not do well in the debate tonight. He looked completely flustered at times and was repetitive at other times. His negative attacks were misses. Cruz, who normally sets the bar on any debate, was also a bit off. I think he was trying to be more likable. The moderators were very good. My scoring is 6–9 favoring Cruz. Beto fever is over and the adults will go with Cruz by 10 points.

    • #12
    • October 16, 2018, at 8:13 PM PDT
    • 7 likes
  13. Nohaaj Coolidge

    We would be remiss to not mention Fauxcahontas doubling down on her now totally debunked claim of high cheekbones. And, for the Dems, as a devout lover of Trump, I was aghast that he called his former one night stand “horse face”. Finally you have the PA Republican governor candidate claiming he will stomp the Dems face in with golf cleats. DOH!

    • #13
    • October 16, 2018, at 8:36 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  14. Clifford A. Brown Contributor
    Clifford A. Brown Post author

    Mike "Lash" LaRoche (View Comment):

    If Democrat candidates are exposed for who they really are, they lose.

    This is the great challenge, and the cause of my pleasant surprise. Even with the social media cartel colluding to silence effective opposition, and slant people’s perceptions, some inconvenient truths are getting out in multiple races.

    • #14
    • October 16, 2018, at 11:50 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
  15. Clifford A. Brown Contributor
    Clifford A. Brown Post author

    DonG (View Comment):

    Is saw a generic ballot survey and GOP was +1 *over* Dems in competitive districts. I am guessing the blue districts turn very blue and GOP holds the house.

    Early voting has started, so the October surprises better not wait any longer. It seemed like Nikki Haley announcement would be a thing, but then 10 giant news items followed. A story would need to be huge to stick around at this news pace.

    Bobby “Beto” O’Rourke did not do well in the debate tonight. He looked completely flustered at times and was repetitive at other times. His negative attacks were misses. Cruz, who normally sets the bar on any debate, was also a bit off. I think he was trying to be more likable. The moderators were very good. My scoring is 6–9 favoring Cruz. Beto fever is over and the adults will go with Cruz by 10 points.

    Good to hear. I watched the Telemundo moderated Florida Senatorial debate before the hurricane, and thought Scott out-pointed Nelson, who pretty much had “Scott is a liar.” Not good, when Governor Scott has been a visible chief executive and can just remind people of how their lives are improving. The FBI raid on the allegedly corrupt Puerto Rican city hall today sends a message to the estimated 1 million Puerto Ricans who moved to Florida. Scott just needs to hammer the point home: see how a Republican government responds to its state’s needs, versus the old corrupt Democrats.

    • #15
    • October 16, 2018, at 11:55 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  16. OkieSailor Member

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    This is the tale of two elections.

    According to 538, the odds of Republicans holding the Senate are up to 4 out of 5 (80.6 to 19.4%), while the odds of the Democrats taking the House are 6 out of 7 (84.8 to 15.2%).

    Americans don’t like what happened to Kavanaugh which is why we will hold the Senate, and they don’t like Trump and want a check on him which is why the House will flip to the Democrats.

    I ‘like’ your analysis, meaning I agree that you’re probably right. I’d prefer to see gains in both House and Senate but don’t see that as being realistic. Voters are fickle but use their own mis-judgment (in my not so humble opinion) as they should.

    • #16
    • October 17, 2018, at 3:57 AM PDT
    • 1 like
  17. Hang On Member

    Clifford A. Brown (View Comment):

    Judge Mental (View Comment):

    I thought Trump should have ordered the release of the documents in the immediate wake of the Kavanaugh debacle. Kick them when they’re ‘low’.

    The risk he is balancing is severe damage to the British Conservative government. He got frantic calls from two foreign leaders the day he demanded full production of documents, and gave that as a reason for not immediately releasing everything. That would be Theresa May and the new Australian PM. I believe May’s intelligence services must figure out who to sacrifice, for the sake of the service’s long term relationship with American intelligence. The problem is, was May briefed? Obama and his team probably know the answer, and would leak it if necessary.

    The head of MI6, Robert Harrigan, resigned just as Trump came into office. Of course, it went deeper than just Harrigan.

    My guess is he has the goods on Rosenstein as well and is playing that card.

    • #17
    • October 17, 2018, at 4:46 AM PDT
    • 2 likes
  18. Hang On Member

    Mike "Lash" LaRoche (View Comment):

    If Democrat candidates are exposed for who they really are, they lose.

    But Republicans have to do the exposing and most of them have consultants who are milquetoast.

    • #18
    • October 17, 2018, at 4:51 AM PDT
    • 4 likes
  19. Stad Thatcher

    Clifford A. Brown: It turns out that President Trump is now holding a ten-pound sledgehammer over the heads of Mueller, Rosenstein, and our special friends across the pond, complicit in the Russia Hoax. If he orders immediate and full compliance with long-standing Congressional demands for complete, unredacted document production, there will be a scandal with more damage to the image of the FBI than was caused by the Church Committee revelations.

    Could it be Trump has an October surprise on the launch pad? I hope so . . .

    • #19
    • October 17, 2018, at 7:11 AM PDT
    • 5 likes
  20. RightAngles Member

    DonG (View Comment):

    Is saw a generic ballot survey and GOP was +1 *over* Dems in competitive districts. I am guessing the blue districts turn very blue and GOP holds the house.

    Early voting has started, so the October surprises better not wait any longer. It seemed like Nikki Haley announcement would be a thing, but then 10 giant news items followed. A story would need to be huge to stick around at this news pace.

    Bobby “Beto” O’Rourke did not do well in the debate tonight. He looked completely flustered at times and was repetitive at other times. His negative attacks were misses. Cruz, who normally sets the bar on any debate, was also a bit off. I think he was trying to be more likable. The moderators were very good. My scoring is 6–9 favoring Cruz. Beto fever is over and the adults will go with Cruz by 10 points.

    Cruz came off as a little apologetic at times, which I wish our side would stop doing. At one point he said that bit about “I believe all women” and I changed the channel. I mean come ON.

    • #20
    • October 17, 2018, at 9:53 AM PDT
    • 4 likes
  21. Susan Quinn Contributor

    Thanks, @cliffordbrown! Wow, when you put all the scandal together, it’s mind-boggling! I just hope that we see a minimum of scandals on our side. As things stand, regardless of polling (which is not very helpful), I think we have a decent chance of taking both the House and Senate.

    • #21
    • October 17, 2018, at 10:19 AM PDT
    • 3 likes
  22. Rōnin Inactive

    RightAngles (View Comment):

    I posted about Beto’s DWI! This is the first I’ve heard about Nelson. What a bunch of lowlifes.

    Willie kind of gets a pass around here. People go to his concerts because it may be the last time they see him alive. Of course, everyone been thinking that since the mid 1990s. No one gives a rat’s rear about his politics, and he knows it.

    • #22
    • October 17, 2018, at 10:26 AM PDT
    • 5 likes
  23. Seawriter Member

    When things go wrong, you’ll find they usually go on getting worse for some time; but when things once start going right they often go on getting better and better. – C. S. Lewis, The Magician’s Nephew.

    • #23
    • October 17, 2018, at 10:27 AM PDT
    • 4 likes
  24. cirby Member

    I work with a number of hard-left folks – people who really do support Bernie, and still think he would have beat Trump. Even those guys aren’t able to muster much energy defending the current Democrat crap. None of them can even name who they’re going to vote for, except for the governor’s race (it’s Florida, so they’re going to vote for the socialist).

    Meanwhile, most of the people who are centrist to right wing are getting pretty fired up, which is unheard of for a midterm race…

    • #24
    • October 17, 2018, at 10:51 AM PDT
    • 6 likes
  25. Kozak Member

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):
    , and they don’t like Trump and want a check on him which is why the House will flip to the Democrats.

    Gary doesn’t like Trump.

    Voters don’t seem to agree.

    “The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey finds that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-four percent (44%) would opt for the Republican. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)”

    But keep on hoping Gary, The rest of us, will be glad when the crazy party gets what it deserves in a couple of weeks.

     

    • #25
    • October 17, 2018, at 11:05 AM PDT
    • 3 likes
  26. Stad Thatcher

    RightAngles (View Comment):
    At one point he said that bit about “I believe all women” and I changed the channel.

    The Kiss of Death. I pray he wins . . .

    • #26
    • October 17, 2018, at 11:39 AM PDT
    • 3 likes
  27. Gary Robbins Reagan

    Kozak (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):
    , and they don’t like Trump and want a check on him which is why the House will flip to the Democrats.

    Gary doesn’t like Trump.

    Voters don’t seem to agree.

    “The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey finds that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-four percent (44%) would opt for the Republican.Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)”

    But keep on hoping Gary, The rest of us, will be glad when the crazy party gets what it deserves in a couple of weeks.

    Let’s talk on Wednesday, November 7th.

    • #27
    • October 17, 2018, at 1:57 PM PDT
    • 1 like
  28. ToryWarWriter Thatcher

    Yes. I hope he wins, but odds seem against us. Kinda like the UK circa 1940.

    • #28
    • October 17, 2018, at 2:10 PM PDT
    • Like
  29. Clifford A. Brown Contributor
    Clifford A. Brown Post author

    RightAngles (View Comment):

    DonG (View Comment):

    Is saw a generic ballot survey and GOP was +1 *over* Dems in competitive districts. I am guessing the blue districts turn very blue and GOP holds the house.

    Early voting has started, so the October surprises better not wait any longer. It seemed like Nikki Haley announcement would be a thing, but then 10 giant news items followed. A story would need to be huge to stick around at this news pace.

    Bobby “Beto” O’Rourke did not do well in the debate tonight. He looked completely flustered at times and was repetitive at other times. His negative attacks were misses. Cruz, who normally sets the bar on any debate, was also a bit off. I think he was trying to be more likable. The moderators were very good. My scoring is 6–9 favoring Cruz. Beto fever is over and the adults will go with Cruz by 10 points.

    Cruz came off as a little apologetic at times, which I wish our side would stop doing. At one point he said that bit about “I believe all women” and I changed the channel. I mean come ON.

    He should take First Lady Melania Trump’s line: listen to women and listen to men –“you need to have evidence.” 

    • #29
    • October 17, 2018, at 2:22 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
  30. Clifford A. Brown Contributor
    Clifford A. Brown Post author

    Susan Quinn (View Comment):

    Thanks, @cliffordbrown! Wow, when you put all the scandal together, it’s mind-boggling! I just hope that we see a minimum of scandals on our side. As things stand, regardless of polling (which is not very helpful), I think we have a decent chance of taking both the House and Senate.

    Another instance of the Democrats’ self-sabotage, in Nevada:

    A Democratic operative for American Bridge 21st Century, a group founded by David Brock and funded by liberal billionaire George Soros, was arrested Tuesday after the female campaign manager for Nevada GOP gubernatorial nominee Adam Laxalt accused the operative of grabbing and yanking her arm and refusing to let go.

    Kristin Davison and other officials for the Nevada attorney general’s campaign said the “battery” left her “terrified and traumatized” — and with bruises on her neck and arms.

    “Politics is a little bit aggressive these days, but this is just insane. I’ve never seen anything like it,” Davison, 31, told Fox News on Wednesday.

     

    • #30
    • October 17, 2018, at 2:26 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
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