Recommended by Ricochet Members Created with Sketch. The Senate Vote – Let’s Have Some More Suspense

 

Why do I have the feeling that I’ve been watching the ending of the film Apollo 13? This latest development for the pending Senate confirmation vote on Kavanaugh is reminiscent of the scene in the film before the hoped-for successful splashdown when one of the NASA technicians informs flight director, Gene Kranz, about a typhoon making its way to the splashdown zone. From Fox News:

Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., will not be available at any point on Saturday to vote to confirm Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. Instead, he’ll be at his daughter’s wedding, Fox News has learned.

The absence of the senator – expected to support the embattled nominee’s confirmation – throws a wrench into the works as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., aims to push through Kavanaugh’s nomination to the high court.

The decision means McConnell would need to obtain all of his available 50 Republican senators to vote for the judge. It would also push Vice President Mike Pence out of the mix, as 99 senators would be voting and Pence can only settle things in the event of a tie. Under the new precedent established during Nuclear Option II on Supreme Court nominees, the Senate simply needs a “majority” of those “voting.”

I don’t know about anyone else but I have some beer cooling in my fridge. I like beer. I plan to celebrate Kavanaugh’s confirmation with beer. Failure is not an option.

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  1. Suspira Member

    Surely McConnell can just scooch that vote over to Monday. BTW, “failure is not an option” because it’s not one of the choices on the board. Doesn’t mean it can’t be the outcome. (I have whisky for celebration or commiseration, as appropriate.)

    • #1
    • October 4, 2018, at 6:59 PM PDT
    • 1 like
  2. tigerlily Member

    The most frustrating thing to me at this point is the Republican weasel caucus (Flake, Collins & Murkowski). Even with the added FBI investigation, there is still zero evidence in support of Ford’s allegation and none of the three is willing to say how they’ll vote. I can’t imagine they won’t vote to confirm, but who knows? I want to think that they’re staying mum until the vote to avoid further contact with the mob.

    • #2
    • October 4, 2018, at 7:07 PM PDT
    • 2 likes
  3. Leigh Member

    My understanding is that McConnell could hold the vote open for a very long time if need be. I assume that he was aware of the wedding ahead of time. I also assume that Daines is willing to take the fastest method of travel back from Montana as soon as possible after the wedding. 

    Since we know how Daines is voting (assuming his vote is needed), presumably we won’t need to sit in suspense waiting for him.

     

    • #3
    • October 4, 2018, at 7:23 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
  4. Suspira Member

    tigerlily (View Comment):
    I can’t imagine they won’t vote to confirm,

    I can imagine it. (That’s the burden of being a pessimist.)

    • #4
    • October 4, 2018, at 7:27 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
  5. Brian Watt Member
    Brian Watt Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Leigh (View Comment):

    My understanding is that McConnell could hold the vote open for a very long time if need be. I assume that he was aware of the wedding ahead of time. I also assume that Daines is willing to take the fastest method of travel back from Montana as soon as possible after the wedding.

    Since we know how Daines is voting (assuming his vote is needed), presumably we won’t need to sit in suspense waiting for him.

    At the moment, no one is reporting that the vote is going to be pushed to Monday. So, if Mitch already knows the count and has commitments from those who haven’t made their decisions public, then fine. But compelling arguments have been made that lame duck Flake really has nothing to lose by voting ‘no’ and everything to gain…as a heroic media darling and the guy who ‘resisted’ Donald Trump. Waiting to Monday might be a prudent thing to do. 

    • #5
    • October 4, 2018, at 7:35 PM PDT
    • 2 likes
  6. Henry Racette Contributor

    Last year, my highschool senior daughter, the 5’2″ tall starting point guard for her high-school girls’ varsity basketball team, went up to the free-throw line with 23 seconds left of the final championship game against our long-time arch rival, a team we had battled — and lost to — in championships for years. We were two points down; she had to sink both baskets to tie the score.

    I was sitting at the scoring table, keeping the game books for our team. I’ve watched the video, and in the few frame where I appear you can see the tension in my back, even from up in the bleachers. We won in overtime, by six points. It was an upset victory reminiscent of 2016.

    The Kavanaugh confirmation vote isn’t quite up to that level, yet, but it’s getting close.

    • #6
    • October 4, 2018, at 7:43 PM PDT
    • 8 likes
  7. formerlawprof Coolidge

    Brian Watt (View Comment):
    waiting to Monday might be a prudent thing to do. 

    No; wait until Sunday. If Mitch says we vote on Sunday, we vote on Sunday. (Then Kavanaugh can hear oral argument Monday morning.)

    • #7
    • October 4, 2018, at 7:44 PM PDT
    • 10 likes
  8. Rodin Member

    Daines is a Kavanagh supporter/booster. Reports are he “has it covered” — whatever that means. 

    • #8
    • October 4, 2018, at 8:46 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
  9. Brian Watt Member
    Brian Watt Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    A somewhat comforting update from FoxNews moments ago:

    Because Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., started a procedural clock Thursday evening, Republicans cannot technically delay the final confirmation vote on Saturday unless they secure the consent of all 100 senators. (50 affirmative votes are needed for Friday morning’s procedural vote to invoke cloture, meaning to formally end debate and move forward to Saturday’s final vote.)

    The GOP could, however, hold the session open for several hours, allowing Daines to vote late Saturday or even Sunday if needed. “Votes are held open all the time,” Daines said.

    He added: “The next most important vote is [Friday] at 10:30 [a.m. ET]. … We’re going to find out a lot tomorrow. And we’ve got a plan ready to go.”

    • #9
    • October 4, 2018, at 10:30 PM PDT
    • 2 likes
  10. E. Kent Golding Member

    Rodin (View Comment):

    Daines is a Kavanagh supporter/booster. Reports are he “has it covered” — whatever that means.

    There is less opportunity for trickery and deceit if he is physically there. Hold the vote at 12:01 AM Saturday morning and fly him out to the wedding on a military plan right after.

    • #10
    • October 5, 2018, at 1:39 AM PDT
    • 9 likes
  11. Hartmann von Aue Member

    E. Kent Golding (View Comment):

    Rodin (View Comment):

    Daines is a Kavanagh supporter/booster. Reports are he “has it covered” — whatever that means.

    There is less opportunity for trickery and deceit if he is physically there. Hold the vote at 12:01 AM Saturday morning and fly him out to the wedding on a military plan right after.

    In the mean time, those of you living in Red States with D Senators need to be burning up their phone lines. I am still registered in Texas but I have still sent four emails to mine, just to be sure. 

    • #11
    • October 5, 2018, at 3:12 AM PDT
    • 4 likes
  12. Jon1979 Lincoln

    Rodin (View Comment):

    Daines is a Kavanagh supporter/booster. Reports are he “has it covered” — whatever that means.

    Flake is so weak-minded when it comes to doing something that would support his professed conservative beliefs but at the same time be seen as a win for Trump, that giving Chris Coons or any ladies in an elevator any extra time with Flake to change his mind is dangerous. The same holds true in different ways for Collins and Murkowski — Daines may think he “has it covered” on Thursday, but that might not be the case come Saturday or Sunday, as both act like reluctant swimmers trying to get up the courage do dive into a lake for the first time after winter’s over, and could end up opting not to dive in at all.

    On the other hand, given how the GOP leadership has had to bend over backwards to please those three in the last week, you can see how this might irk Daines — he’s likely been freeing up his schedule for months to attend his daughter’s wedding this Saturday, and the Senate calendar was clear until they decided last week’s testimony wasn’t enough and they needed Kavanaugh to go through a seventh FBI background check (which still may not be enough for them). If he has to wait on them to make up their minds while trying to put on a good public relations face at the behest of Democrats everyone knew were going to move the goalposts again if the new FBI probe came back empty, in Daines’ mind, they can now wait on him because he and his daughter did nothing wrong in scheduling the wedding for an off-day on the Senate calendar.

    • #12
    • October 5, 2018, at 4:37 AM PDT
    • 2 likes
  13. Fake John/Jane Galt Coolidge

    If I was a GOP senator I would be very careful for the next few days. Sooner or later some Leftist is going to figure out if you bump off a GOP Senator or two this thing swings their way.

    • #13
    • October 5, 2018, at 6:59 AM PDT
    • 5 likes
  14. Brian Watt Member
    Brian Watt Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Keeping an eye on the TV this morning…speeches from the Senate floor….Feinstein….muting, muting, muting…Schumer…muting, muting, muting….

    Just tired of the lies, hyperbole, histrionics, baseless accusations and smears.

    • #14
    • October 5, 2018, at 7:18 AM PDT
    • 6 likes
  15. Brian Watt Member
    Brian Watt Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    On the cloture vote (to bring the debate to a close) this morning…Manchin, Flake, Collins: Yes. Lisa Murkowski: No.

    Final cloture vote: 51 Yes – 49 No.

    Collins to make further announcement at 3:00pm EST today. Stay tuned folks.

    • #15
    • October 5, 2018, at 7:52 AM PDT
    • 1 like
  16. Suspira Member

    Hartmann von Aue (View Comment):

    E. Kent Golding (View Comment):

    Rodin (View Comment):

    Daines is a Kavanagh supporter/booster. Reports are he “has it covered” — whatever that means.

    There is less opportunity for trickery and deceit if he is physically there. Hold the vote at 12:01 AM Saturday morning and fly him out to the wedding on a military plan right after.

    In the mean time, those of you living in Red States with D Senators need to be burning up their phone lines. I am still registered in Texas but I have still sent four emails to mine, just to be sure.

    I’ve sent emails, but my D Senator (and yes, I voted for him), having declared his “no” vote, has to know he has materially hurt his chances for re-election. I can’t see any further hectoring changing his mind.

    • #16
    • October 5, 2018, at 9:01 AM PDT
    • Like
  17. Roberto, Crusty Old Timer LLC Member
    Roberto, Crusty Old Timer LLC Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Rodin (View Comment):

    Daines is a Kavanagh supporter/booster. Reports are he “has it covered” — whatever that means.

    He has it covered. 

     

    • #17
    • October 5, 2018, at 12:52 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  18. PJ Coolidge
    PJ Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Collins just said she’d vote to confirm. I think that seals it.

    • #18
    • October 5, 2018, at 12:53 PM PDT
    • 1 like
  19. Brian Watt Member
    Brian Watt Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Collins is a Yes for confirmation. 

    • #19
    • October 5, 2018, at 12:54 PM PDT
    • 1 like
  20. Brian Watt Member
    Brian Watt Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Manchin: Yes.

    • #20
    • October 5, 2018, at 12:55 PM PDT
    • Like
  21. Henry Racette Contributor

    Brian Watt (View Comment):

    Manchin: Yes.

    I haven’t seen that one yet. I saw the Collins announcement, and know that Manchin voted today to end debate. I expect him to vote for Kavanaugh as long as his isn’t the deciding vote, but I haven’t seen it announced yet.

    UPDATE: @brianwatt, just saw the story and Manchin’s statement. Good news. Thanks for posting it here first.

    • #21
    • October 5, 2018, at 12:59 PM PDT
    • Like
  22. Gary Robbins Reagan

    tigerlily (View Comment):

    The most frustrating thing to me at this point is the Republican weasel caucus (Flake, Collins & Murkowski). Even with the added FBI investigation, there is still zero evidence in support of Ford’s allegation and none of the three is willing to say how they’ll vote. I can’t imagine they won’t vote to confirm, but who knows? I want to think that they’re staying mum until the vote to avoid further contact with the mob.

    Oh hush! I think that Flake, Collins and Murkowski all operated in good faith.

    Flake felt that the nation needed a quick F.B.I. investigation and he met with the two most sane Democrats, Coons and Klobuchar to make it happen.

    Collins just had a remarkably impressive speech on the floor of the Senate.

    Murkowski met with a number of sexual abuse survivors yesterday. She also takes umbrage at a ruling on Native American issues.

    I may be a Pollyanna, but I think that Flake, Collins, Murkowski, and yes, Manchin, have all acted in good faith unlike Hirono, Harris, Feinstein and Spartacus.

    • #22
    • October 5, 2018, at 1:07 PM PDT
    • 2 likes
  23. Henry Racette Contributor

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    tigerlily (View Comment):

    The most frustrating thing to me at this point is the Republican weasel caucus (Flake, Collins & Murkowski). Even with the added FBI investigation, there is still zero evidence in support of Ford’s allegation and none of the three is willing to say how they’ll vote. I can’t imagine they won’t vote to confirm, but who knows? I want to think that they’re staying mum until the vote to avoid further contact with the mob.

    Oh hush! I think that Flake, Collins and Murkowski all operated in good faith.

    Flake felt that the nation needed a quick F.B.I. investigation and he met with the two most sane Democrats, Coons and Klobuchar to make it happen.

    Collins just had a remarkably impressive speech on the floor of the Senate.

    Murkowski met with a number of sexual abuse survivors yesterday. She also takes umbrage at a ruling on Native American issues.

    I may be a Pollyanna, but I think that Flake, Collins, Murkowski, and yes, Manchin, have all acted in good faith unlike Hirono, Harris, Feinstein and Spartacus.

    I won’t speculate about their motivations, but I haven’t found a lot objectionable in the conduct of the Republicans on this issue. Whatever Senator Flake’s motives, I think it’s arguable that, absent the delay for what was probably a token investigation (because any definitive examination of such an old and poorly defined event is by its very nature problematic), there’s a good chance we’d have lost the confirmation vote. The gesture gave a defense to those Republicans and Democrats who want to vote in favor, but couldn’t without some show of extra consideration.

    I just don’t see any villains on the right in this piece. The left… that’s another matter entirely.

    • #23
    • October 5, 2018, at 1:15 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
  24. HeavyWater Coolidge

    A few weeks ago I made two predictions:

    [1] Kavanaugh would be confirmed before the beginning of October.

    [2] All 51 Republican US Senators would vote for Kavanaugh.

    Both of my predictions were wrong (unless Murkowski changes her mind, which I doubt will happen).

    The old saying is that it is always dangerous to make predictions, especially about the future. So true.

    • #24
    • October 5, 2018, at 1:20 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  25. blood thirsty neocon Inactive

    The worst part was how annoyed the snowflake caucus of RINO’s pretended to be when they were hounded by the press about who they would vote for. These people should not get the attention that they have just for doing their jobs. 

    • #25
    • October 5, 2018, at 2:15 PM PDT
    • Like
  26. Clifford A. Brown Contributor

    Senator Susan Collins, Lioness of the Senate.

    • #26
    • October 5, 2018, at 3:21 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  27. Leigh Member

    Murkowski and Daines are “pairing.” So they’ve got it covered, he gets to take the day off for his daughter’s wedding, and we don’t have to wait for hours to get it over with.

    Plus if Lisa Murkowski regrets this in four years or so, she can point out that she didn’t actually vote against Kavanaugh. She just offered a really pathetic rationale for not voting for him.

    • #27
    • October 5, 2018, at 6:56 PM PDT
    • 1 like
  28. Jules PA Member

    I like beer. 

    • #28
    • October 5, 2018, at 8:39 PM PDT
    • 2 likes
  29. Mikescapes Member

    Jon1979 (View Comment):

    Rodin (View Comment):

    Daines is a Kavanagh supporter/booster. Reports are he “has it covered” — whatever that means.

    Flake is so weak-minded when it comes to doing something that would support his professed conservative beliefs but at the same time be seen as a win for Trump, that giving Chris Coons or any ladies in an elevator any extra time with Flake to change his mind is dangerous. The same holds true in different ways for Collins and Murkowski — Daines may think he “has it covered” on Thursday, but that might not be the case come Saturday or Sunday, as both act like reluctant swimmers trying to get up the courage do dive into a lake for the first time after winter’s over, and could end up opting not to dive in at all.

    On the other hand, given how the GOP leadership has had to bend over backwards to please those three in the last week, you can see how this might irk Daines — he’s likely been freeing up his schedule for months to attend his daughter’s wedding this Saturday, and the Senate calendar was clear until they decided last week’s testimony wasn’t enough and they needed Kavanaugh to go through a seventh FBI background check (which still may not be enough for them). If he has to wait on them to make up their minds while trying to put on a good public relations face at the behest of Democrats everyone knew were going to move the goalposts again if the new FBI probe came back empty, in Daines’ mind, they can now wait on him because he and his daughter did nothing wrong in scheduling the wedding for an off-day on the Senate calendar.

    I’m not buying the Wedding Excuse. Monumental vote, which needed his presence. My daughter would have agreed to a delay. Wouldn’t yours, if you have one, considering the importance for the future of constitutional government. I suspect the guests would have understood as well. McConnell couldn’t delay to accommodate Daines. Murkowski and Daines agreed to a mutual duck the problem pact. Both did their polling and found a vote for Kavanaugh to be risky. So, they bailed. Daines getting off the hook is undeserved.

    • #29
    • October 7, 2018, at 9:40 AM PDT
    • Like
  30. Leigh Member

    Mikescapes (View Comment):
    My daughter would have agreed to a delay. Wouldn’t yours, if you have one, considering the importance for the future of constitutional government.

    If there was actually any importance for the future of constitutional government, I’d have agreed. Since they had the votes anyway, no such thing. Sorry.

    He’d already voted for cloture. He’d made his support public in every way. I mean, here he is voting “aye” from the wedding venue and asking if that counts.

    Do you also think she planned her wedding date to give him an excuse? That’s ridiculous.

    • #30
    • October 7, 2018, at 11:34 AM PDT
    • 1 like

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