Contributor Post Created with Sketch. Majority of NH Voters – and 40 Percent of GOP – Want Trump to Face Primary

 

A new poll at New Hampshire Journal (where I’m Politics Editor) had some interesting — and perhaps troubling — news for President Trump: Around half of GOP primary voters in the key, early state of New Hampshire think a 2020 GOP POTUS primary would be a good thing. You can find all the data linked here, but the key numbers:

Looking ahead to the 2020 Republican Presidential Primary, would it be a good thing or bad thing if Republicans had the choice of another candidate in addition to Donald Trump?

Yes, it would be a good thing 56 percent

No, it would not be a good thing 27 percent

Not sure 17 percent

Among Republican primary voters, it’s 47 percent against a primary, 40 percent in favor.

But the reason I say it’s about half is unaffiliated voters (who outnumber GOP voters by a 2-1 margin and are eligible to vote in either party’s primary) support the idea 57-25 percent.

Does this mean a POTUS primary is assured or even likely? Not necessarily. Trump’s approval among Granite State Republicans is still 72 percent and, while that’s about 10 points lower than Trump’s national GOP number, it’s still an overwhelming majority.

And some Trump supporters dismiss polls more than a year out as meaningless, anyway. Fair enough. But if you had to bet, would you put your money on “Trump is in stronger shape” a year from now or weaker? And what happens to Trump’s support if the GOP loses control of the House (which is very likely)? Anything is possible, but the political trend is that Trump’s GOP numbers will drop from the ahistoric level of GOP support to more typical levels inside his own party. In other words, a primary will become more likely over time, not less.

Is that a bad thing? Over at The Hill, Bob Cusack and Ian Swanson write that a primary for Trump might actually help him and his party.

Trump has repeatedly defied convention in his political career, and there are reasons to think a GOP challenge could actually help him.

Trump’s base has shown that it is invigorated by challenges to the president, whether they come from Democrats or Republicans seen as part of the GOP establishment.

And Trump has generally emerged from intra-GOP conflicts with strength.

Unlike George H.W. Bush or Ford, Trump’s standing with the GOP base is strong. His approval rating in the GOP hovers around 90 percent.

Republican strategist Ford O’Connell said a primary challenge doesn’t scare Trump because “nobody energizes the GOP base more than Donald J. Trump.”

What should truly concern Trump fans is just how reliant his presidency is on his amazingly-high GOP support. Trump’s approval rating among Democrats in purple New Hampshire is just 6 percent. That’s lower than the vote total he got in Washington DC. There’s partisanship and then there’s “ridiculous.” A president with less than 10 percent bipartisan support is living every day in the danger zone.

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  1. Misthiocracy got drunk and Member
    Misthiocracy got drunk andJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    As an ignorant foreigner, I figured every president had to face at least nominal primary challengers for their second term.

    What’s the process for deciding if a sitting president has to face primary challengers? Is it just a question of nobody else putting their names forward, or does a vote have to be taken somewhere?

    • #1
    • August 21, 2018, at 1:02 PM PDT
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  2. The Cloaked Gaijin Member

    So who do you want Trump to chew up John Kasich or Bill Kristol?

    • #2
    • August 21, 2018, at 1:52 PM PDT
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  3. Gary Robbins Reagan

    I guess I know where I will be in the Winter of 2020.

    • #3
    • August 21, 2018, at 2:09 PM PDT
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  4. Gary Robbins Reagan

    The Cloaked Gaijin (View Comment):

    So who do you want Trump to chew up John Kasich or Bill Kristol?

    Either. I would also be happy with Ben Sasse, Jeff Flake or Milt Romney.

    I would be ecstatic with Nikki Haley.

    • #4
    • August 21, 2018, at 2:11 PM PDT
    • 1 like
  5. Quake Voter Inactive

    Michael Graham: What should truly concern Trump fans is just how reliant his presidency is on his amazingly-high GOP support. Trump’s approval rating among Democrats in purple New Hampshire is just 6 percent. That’s lower than the vote total he got in Washington DC. There’s partisanship and then there’s “ridiculous.” A president with less than 10 percent bipartisan support is living every day in the danger zone.

    This is an unpersuasive final paragraph Michael.

    First, how about addressing Trump “supporters”? I know the belittling Trump “fans” is Weekly Standard house style, but it is unserious considering the 90% support the man has within the GOP.

    Second, where does this newly minted metric of “bipartisan support” come from? In 2011, Obama enjoyed 2% support from Republicans. Didn’t exactly doom his chances in 2012. Cratering support from independents in swing states would be a danger zone indicator. Democratic support is irrelevant.

     

     

    • #5
    • August 21, 2018, at 2:31 PM PDT
    • 2 likes
  6. Could Be Anyone Member

    Quake Voter (View Comment):

    Second, where does this newly minted metric of “bipartisan support” come from? In 2011, Obama enjoyed 2% support from Republicans. Didn’t exactly doom his chances in 2012. Cratering support from independents in swing states would be a danger zone indicator. Democratic support is irrelevant.

    Unfortunately for the GOP they are usually outnumbered by Democrats. That means that the margin for error is smaller. GOP candidates have to have a broader appeal than their Democratic opponents in many states to win. This dynamic is also observed at the national level. Hence the problem of only having appeal within the party.

    Graham was probably assuming his audience knew more on the topic and so he didn’t mention it.

    • #6
    • August 21, 2018, at 2:51 PM PDT
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  7. Quake Voter Inactive

    Could Be Anyone (View Comment):

    Quake Voter (View Comment):

    Second, where does this newly minted metric of “bipartisan support” come from? In 2011, Obama enjoyed 2% support from Republicans. Didn’t exactly doom his chances in 2012. Cratering support from independents in swing states would be a danger zone indicator. Democratic support is irrelevant.

    Unfortunately for the GOP they are usually outnumbered by Democrats. That means that the margin for error is smaller. GOP candidates have to have a broader appeal than their Democratic opponents in many states to win. This dynamic is also observed at the national level. Hence the problem of only having appeal within the party.

    Graham was probably assuming his audience knew more on the topic and so he didn’t mention it.

    I don’t disagree but that appeal is increased by appealing to independent voters not to registered Democrats, certainly not active Democrats. Republicans don’t win elections with the votes of registered Democrats. They turn out the Republican coalition (itself broader than the Democrats) and win independents. “Bipartisan support” is an empty concept except for electoral fantasies like Weaverism.

    Good piece breaking down (and breaking up) Kasich’s “support” by Henry Olsen at NR.

    George W. Bush won 6% of the Democratic vote. Apart from the South that share might have been 2-3%. Trump and Clinton each traded 8% of the other party’s vote.

    If a centrist Democrat with a common sense agenda were aiming for a larger share of the GOP than Trump might win from Democrats this might matter.

    No chance of that my friend.

     

    • #7
    • August 21, 2018, at 7:04 PM PDT
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  8. Travis McKee Inactive

    Making his primary rivals look impotent last time was his great strength last time, so yeah, doing it again with primary challengers would be an asset to him. 

    Assuming, of course, his challengers haven’t learned a thing by then. 

    • #8
    • August 22, 2018, at 6:32 AM PDT
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  9. The Cloaked Gaijin Member

    The 40% landslide percentage — smaller than the 40.6% that Walter Mondale won in his one-state 1984 election failure…

    • #9
    • August 22, 2018, at 9:18 PM PDT
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