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Cambodia: The Times They Are a-Changin’
Cambodia’s sixth general election came and went on July 29. Unsurprisingly, Hun Sen, the world’s longest ruling prime minister (33 years and counting) and the ruling CPP won in a landslide. The result was never in doubt given the crackdown on civil society and independent press leading up to the election. This culminated in the dissolution of the main opposition party, the CNRP, last November with its leader thrown in jail on bogus treason charges. Hun Sen now has more power than he has ever had. But in the country, the worry now is what will happen next?
After the CNRP was disbanded last year, the US imposed visa bans on senior Cambodian officials, while the the EU said it would review its trade agreement with Cambodia. In June 2018, Hing Bun Heang, chief of Hun Sen’s bodyguard unit, was sanctioned under Global Magnitsky Designations. A few days before the election, the US House of Representatives passed the Cambodia Democracy Act to target sanctions on individuals responsible for undermining democracy in Cambodia. After the election, Washington called the electoral process “flawed” and said it could take “additional steps.” While the EU stated that the electoral process was not legitimate.
So, the risk for Cambodia now is the possible sanctions from the US and the EU. The Cambodian economy is doing quite well and it has been growing at a rate of 7% annually since 1993. The country’s lucrative footwear and garment industry, which makes up the bulk of its economy, is the country’s largest employer, and ships about 70% of its products to the the EU and US markets. If the EU decides to revise its trade deal with Cambodia, the garment industry will suffer, as will pepper, rice and other industries that access the EU market. But having won another five-year term, some experts think Hun Sen will revert to his usual trick, softening his stance to keep sanctions at bay. Some expect him to reinstate the CNRP and release its leader from prison.
Another worry is succession, which is quite a sensitive subject even among the CPP itself. Hun Sen has stated last November that he intends to stay on for another ten years for the sake of “peace and stability”. But many believe he’s ready for a power transfer. Most people in Cambodia think his eldest, the West Point grad Hun Manet, will succeed him. At 33, Hun Manet became major general of the country’s army in January 2011. A month later, Khmer and Thai troops clashed over territorial claims around Preah Vihear Temple, which sits right on the border between the two countries. Hun Manet commanded the Khmer troops at the site at the time. Hun Sen constantly brings up his son’s accomplishments. Hun Manet was promoted to general and made deputy-commander-in-chief of the armed forces this past July, right before the election.
But is Hun Manet in a position to take over? And will the CPP accept? Within the CPP there are factions, one loyal to Hun Sen and another to the former head of the senate, Chea Sim, which includes the interior minister, Sar Kheng, and his brother-in-law, Ke Kim Yan, who was the former commander-in-chief of the armed forces. Ke Kim Yan was removed from his post due to his refusal to deploy the army to the streets of Phnom Penh. While most of the high-ranking members of the armed forces are Hun Sen’s cronies, according to various reports, most of the junior officers are still loyal to Ke Kim Yan.
But the most important factor in Cambodia’s future is its demographics. Because of the slaughter under the Khmer Rouge, almost 70% of its population is under 35. Of the Cambodian population, 30% are under 17, and the average age is 25. Hun Sen likes to claim he saved the country from the Khmer Rouge and the civil war, but to the younger generation born after 1993 Hun Sen’s “achievements” mean nothing to them. The younger generation is quite tech-savvy and well-connected on social media; they increasingly look to the outside world, especially the west for comparison with their own lives. They view corruption, drugs, crimes and land ownership rights as the most important issues in society. They want reform. They want change. And they were the reason Hun Sen and the CPP came very close to losing the 2013 general election and contributed to the CNRP’s big gains in the local election last year.
Hun Sen himself did try reform, in a nearly six-hour long speech after his near defeat in 2013. He outlined reform, but it’s clear the resistance to change came from his cronies, the generals, and the business tycoons; those that prop up his power. The only course moving forward is total authoritarian rule. According to Voice of America, in a rare interview with an American filmmaker in a documentary called Angkor Awakens, when asked what Cambodia after Hun Sen looks like, Hun Sen is quite uncertain, as everyone else in Cambodia.
Interviewer: The thing that we have to think of is…what is the stage after Hun Sen?
Hun Sen: That is the question among the Cambodian people, and the CPP. I am wondering myself, too: who will come after Hun Sen? What is the post-Hun Sen era like? Now, I’ve been thinking about the younger generation. It’s them who will push the reform and they have a higher ability to do that because they have the opportunity, more opportunity, to learn during the age of technology.
It will be the younger generation that will bring about the change in Cambodia. And it is coming in the next several years. Whether good or bad, only time will tell.
Published in General
Thank you for bringing this information to Ricochet.
Thank you, @lidenscheng
LC: this is a great article. I was well aware of the rigged election, but I wasn’t too well-informed about the factions of the CPP. I am a very frequent visitor to Cambodia, and I see the economy absolutely booming. Phnom Penh is barely recognizable anymore. My Khmer friends complain about Hun Sen, but they are living much better than ever.
As much as I despise Hun Sen, I can’t help but think that stability is just what Cambodia needs right now. If that means ten more years of Hun Sen followed by god-knows-how-many years of Hun Manet, I think that might be the most realistic way forward for Cambodia. It pains me to say it, but would a Hun Dynasty be the worst thing for Cambodia?
LC:
Very informative article, thanks so much.
I was unaware that our public servants have determined, on our behalf, that they have sufficient knowledge of Cambodian society, and sufficient moral authority, to attempt to dictate and threaten in this way regarding the direction of Cambodia’s internal politics, rather than merely give friendly counsel (we being sympathetic foreigners) or fatherly counsel (we being among the world’s present leading representatives of the great liberal cause)
I hope, especially for the sake of the Cambodians, that these officials are representing us wisely and virtuously. Their track record isn’t good.
Always interesting LC. It irritates me to no end that there are multiple 24/7 “News Channels and websites” that chew the same piece of gristle over, and over – yet there are gaping stories from around the world, and at home that go unreported on.
I actively avoid stories like the “N-word” but find I am more familiar with news like that through osmosis of the general culture. I’d like to think that some news organization has contacted you and offered you some type of agreement or fee for information like this.
I used to live in Cambodia – when did you become interested in the subject?
I’m Khmer. I’d say the majority of my posts are Cambodia related. When did you use to live there?
I agree with you that the Cambodian economy is constantly booming. Every time my aunt and I visit, it is truly unbelievable how unrecognizable Phnom Penh is. My mom hasn’t been back for about 20 years and she’s visiting this November. She’s in for a real shock.
However, I am someone, just like the rest of my family, who despises dynasties. I hate it here in the US and I definitely do not want it in Cambodia. For a long time, the problem has been that there has never been a good alternative to Hun Sen. What’s the point of electing someone who’s even crazier like the many socialist opponents? But in the last several years, there have been better alternatives or people who are truly interested in a real democracy. I must disagree with you that Hun Sen’s definition of stability is what the country needs anymore. He’s been using that excuse for years to keep absolute power, exploiting the fear in many older Cambodians, who have never gotten over the trauma from the war.
The biggest threat to Cambodia is the true crony capitalism that comes from Hun Sen’s generals and business tycoons. It’s difficult for me to believe that Cambodia’s answer for the future rests in a man who’s been in power longer than I’ve been alive and subsequently his son.
LC,
Elizabeth Heng: Big Tech Can ‘Swing Elections as They Censor Conservative Voices’
Do you think Elizabeth Heng’s candidacy can bring more consciousness about Cambodia both past and present? I think she is electric. The younger generation should come to grips with the threat of totalitarian Marxism. Heng does all that and more. She isn’t the classic yuppie peddling pc stuff. She’s from one of the poorest congressional districts in California and she isn’t afraid to talk about it. Her campaign slogan is “Great things come from great adversity.” That’s really different.
Regards,
Jim
Because where other than Ricochet will I ever get news like this.
I’m aware of her and her campaign. I wish her all the luck given that it’s California. But, I don’t know her well enough to know if she even keeps up with Cambodian current events. I’m up to date since I have family members there and several members of both sides of my family have been or are still part of the CPP.
I am terribly embarrassed to defend Hun Sen, but the only realistic opposition I see to him is a resurgence of the Cambodia National Rescue Party. As bad as Hun Sen is–and he is really, really bad–the CNRP would be far worse. Their socialist and xenophobic tendencies would probably be a lot more damaging for Cambodia’s long-term growth than the Hun Dynasty’s cronyism.
Honestly, who are the alternatives? (I ask that in genuine ignorance, not as a challenge.)
Ideally, as Cambodia becomes increasingly integrated within Asean, Hun Sen might feel some pressure to reform and liberalize. Unlikely, I think we probably agree, but I would rather keep the devil-we-know in charge of Cambodia rather than the devil-we-don’t. Sihanouk was corrupt, but Cambodia was stable. Exchanging that for Lon Nol and subsequently Pol Pot is not a good trade.
I’ve been living in Cambodia for over four years now and from my experience, while many Cambodians are unhappy with Hun Sen and the CPP, they also crave stability. They may not like the current regime, but they’ve been intimidated into being very careful about voicing their criticism. Also, the Prime Minister’s argument that he and the CPP are directly and indirectly responsible for the economic growth and the stability that allows it — well, that argument seems to resonate with them, or at least offer them a plausible reason for not wanting to rock the boat.
More than one of my young adult Khmer friends voted in the election despite realizing that they had no real choice in voting for anyone other than the CPP. Some said that voting was their “duty” (an argument made by the CPP) and others were convinced that if they did not vote, their sangkat chief (local administrator) would know and that there would likely be repercussions.
Frankly, I’d be surprised to see any real opposition rise to challenge the CPP anytime in the near future. If Hun Sen holds true to form, he will shift into something like a “good cop” mode and release a few political prisoners, offer some concessions to the international community, and lecture his cronies about “needed reforms.”
To the average Khmer, however, as long as he can pay rent, put rice on the table, and buy his smokes, who’s “in charge” is something that he’s not going to worry too much about.
@derekhelt @americanabroad
I wasn’t trying to be overly optimistic here in saying there are realistic “better alternatives.” Personally, reading a lot of the super tiny parties’ platforms, some are actually very interesting and not crazy such as the Khmer Democratic Party, League for Democracy Party, the Khmer Republican Party, and the Grassroots Democratic Party. Now are they ever going to win some meaningful number of seats even though they actually have reasonable platforms? No, probably not. But I believe some of them are definitely being noticed by the younger generation. I agree with the both of you that the CPP isn’t going anywhere. I mainly wanted to point out that the future will be one to watch out for because of the two factions in the CPP. I don’t believe trouble will come from another party, I believe it’ll be internal. Hun Sen being there for another 10 years is fine as long as he eases up on the cracking down on dissent. After all, what does the all powerful Hun Sen and the CPP have to fear from these small parties? However, if he steps down anytime sooner to give way to his son or when he does in 10 years, I don’t imagine it will go smoothly. Additionally, I don’t imagine his family will fare well when not in power anymore.
Thanks, @LC, for pointing out these smaller parties. Just their very existence is something of a good sign for Cambodia’s future. Let’s hope that their ideas thrive, even if their electoral results don’t.
How have I missed that? When did you / your family come here?
I lived there for a summer in 2006 and then for a full year in 2008-09. It’s been a passion and fascination since my early teens.
My mom came here in 96. My aunt and I came here in 98. The rest of my remaining family members are still there.
Summer 2008 was one of the times that I visited. Maybe we even crossed paths.
Oh yeah totally. Some of these parties surprised me for even existing.