Promoted from the Ricochet Member Feed by Editors Created with Sketch. June Jobs Report: May the Labor Force Be With You

 

The BLS Jobs Report is out and contains the most hopeful underlying number we have seen in a long, long time. The Labor Force increased by 601,000. Those Not In the Labor Force decreased by 413,000.

Those not in the Labor Force has been especially troubling. They are not working and not looking for work. Essentially they have given up or are working in the underground economy. And that number has been climbing all through the Obama years. But the first thing that happens when things really start to improve in the economy is that attitudes change. And those who have given up now see hope and re-enter the Labor Force. They may not have found a job yet, but they are now looking.

One thing this does, however, is bump up the unemployment rate, and we see that in this month’s report.

But it is a hopeful sign. It is exactly the reverse of the Obama era when the reductions in the unemployment rate were driven by a smaller and smaller Labor Force. This increase in the Labor Force means people think things are looking up. Increasing wages and job prospects have induced people to return to the Labor Force.

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  1. Nohaaj Coolidge

     

    Yes of course. Great attention to detail. Of course we already see the hand wringing and smug delight on social feeds and by the MSM as they note the bump in the unemployment number.

     

    • #1
    • July 6, 2018, at 7:30 AM PDT
    • Like
  2. ctlaw Coolidge

    They also revised, upward, May’s numbers:

    A total of 177K private-sector jobs for the month of June was below the 185K consensus estimate, and the second-lowest tally year to date. That said, the upward revision to May’s numbers – +11K to 189K overall – more than made up the difference. 

    • #2
    • July 6, 2018, at 8:55 AM PDT
    • 1 like
  3. Jamie Lockett Inactive

    This is a great jobs report as it shows the economy isn’t overheating. Maybe the fed will forgo immediate rate hikes. 

    • #3
    • July 6, 2018, at 9:07 AM PDT
    • 4 likes
  4. Full Size Tabby Member

    In my last job I was forced to work with statistics (that is not why I became a lawyer, but I was managing legal processes more than actually being a lawyer). Doing so, I learned about the importance of the denominator in fractional calculations. That learning coincided with the years in which the Obama administration bragged about low unemployment rates. But, with my learning, I realized that some of that was affected removing many people from the denominator – the number of people working or looking for work, by transferring them to “disability” or other mechanisms by which they ceased to be counted in the labor force. In response, I learned the importance of the workforce participation rate. 

    Ah, fun with statistics! Don’t just believe the first number in the headline! In my last job, I had to keep my boss from making significant decisions based on a single statistic that might capture his attention.

     

    • #4
    • July 6, 2018, at 10:11 AM PDT
    • 5 likes
  5. Jack Shepherd Coolidge

    0bama was replacing working with welfare. I’m almost positive that all of those “no longer seeking work” numbers were receiving government cash to no work. Just the rise in “disability” cases alone would cover it.

    And, yet, the law never actually changed, so how was the big 0 able to transfer so much cash to new people?

    I kid, I kid. We all know that 0bama considered himself above the law except when he could use it as a chance to chastise Republicans.

    • #5
    • July 6, 2018, at 10:19 AM PDT
    • 2 likes
  6. Susan Quinn Contributor

    This is wonderful news, @ekosj! I remember in a post a month or two back you expressed concern about those who appeared to have given up. I’m glad they’re coming back! Thanks for updating us.

    • #6
    • July 6, 2018, at 11:33 AM PDT
    • 1 like
  7. blood thirsty neocon Inactive

    It’s good news, but the recession will still be here soon. Sorry, it’s not Trump’s fault; it’s just the laws of economics. You can’t repeal the business cycle. Let’s just pray the recession is short and mild. 

    • #7
    • July 6, 2018, at 2:27 PM PDT
    • Like
  8. Ekosj Member
    Ekosj

    blood thirsty neocon (View Comment):

    It’s good news, but the recession will still be here soon. Sorry, it’s not Trump’s fault; it’s just the laws of economics. You can’t repeal the business cycle. Let’s just pray the recession is short and mild.

    Nah. This time it’s different!

    Actually, you are probably right. Only I doubt it will be short and mild. Too much debt. Too little savings. Too many businesses surviving on ultra low interest rates. Too many stock prices buoyed by share buy-backs. Too many firms create nothing but fluff and puff. I’m seeing those house-flipper shows on TV again. Car lots are bursting at the seams with unsold inventory. We need a coupl’a more good years before we are ready to withstand another storm.

     

     

    • #8
    • July 6, 2018, at 2:55 PM PDT
    • Like
  9. Jamie Lockett Inactive

    blood thirsty neocon (View Comment):

    It’s good news, but the recession will still be here soon. Sorry, it’s not Trump’s fault; it’s just the laws of economics. You can’t repeal the business cycle. Let’s just pray the recession is short and mild.

    A trade war isn’t going to help. 

    • #9
    • July 6, 2018, at 3:21 PM PDT
    • Like
  10. Ekosj Member
    Ekosj

    Jamie Lockett (View Comment):

    blood thirsty neocon (View Comment):

    It’s good news, but the recession will still be here soon. Sorry, it’s not Trump’s fault; it’s just the laws of economics. You can’t repeal the business cycle. Let’s just pray the recession is short and mild.

    A trade war isn’t going to help.

    Like any investment, you forego some current consumption in the hope of better returns in the future. Sometimes it doesn’t work out. There is always risk. But no risk no rewards.

    • #10
    • July 6, 2018, at 3:42 PM PDT
    • Like
  11. Jamie Lockett Inactive

    Ekosj (View Comment):

    Jamie Lockett (View Comment):

    blood thirsty neocon (View Comment):

    It’s good news, but the recession will still be here soon. Sorry, it’s not Trump’s fault; it’s just the laws of economics. You can’t repeal the business cycle. Let’s just pray the recession is short and mild.

    A trade war isn’t going to help.

    Like any investment, you forego some current consumption in the hope of better returns in the future. Sometimes it doesn’t work out. There is always risk. But no risk no rewards.

    Tariffs are a tax not an investment. 

    • #11
    • July 6, 2018, at 7:10 PM PDT
    • Like
  12. Ekosj Member
    Ekosj

    Jamie Lockett (View Comment):

    Ekosj (View Comment):

    Jamie Lockett (View Comment):

    blood thirsty neocon (View Comment):

    It’s good news, but the recession will still be here soon. Sorry, it’s not Trump’s fault; it’s just the laws of economics. You can’t repeal the business cycle. Let’s just pray the recession is short and mild.

    A trade war isn’t going to help.

    Like any investment, you forego some current consumption in the hope of better returns in the future. Sometimes it doesn’t work out. There is always risk. But no risk no rewards.

    Tariffs are a tax not an investment.

    That depends what you are trying to accomplish. Trump’s goal is freer, fairer trade. In my opinion, they are an investment … deferred consumption designed to yield returns in the future.

    • #12
    • July 6, 2018, at 7:22 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
  13. blood thirsty neocon Inactive

    Jamie Lockett (View Comment):

    blood thirsty neocon (View Comment):

    It’s good news, but the recession will still be here soon. Sorry, it’s not Trump’s fault; it’s just the laws of economics. You can’t repeal the business cycle. Let’s just pray the recession is short and mild.

    A trade war isn’t going to help.

    I would be lying if I said I’m not a little nervous about just that. On the other hand, if we can make it to election day and hold serve, the recession’ll probably start the next day. That’ll be perfect, and with this guy’s luck, that’s probably what’ll happen. Fortune favors the bold, and this president is nothing if not bold. Remember: He. said. he. would. do. this.

    • #13
    • July 6, 2018, at 7:54 PM PDT
    • Like
  14. Jamie Lockett Inactive

    Ekosj (View Comment):

    Jamie Lockett (View Comment):

    Ekosj (View Comment):

    Jamie Lockett (View Comment):

    blood thirsty neocon (View Comment):

    It’s good news, but the recession will still be here soon. Sorry, it’s not Trump’s fault; it’s just the laws of economics. You can’t repeal the business cycle. Let’s just pray the recession is short and mild.

    A trade war isn’t going to help.

    Like any investment, you forego some current consumption in the hope of better returns in the future. Sometimes it doesn’t work out. There is always risk. But no risk no rewards.

    Tariffs are a tax not an investment.

    That depends what you are trying to accomplish. Trump’s goal is freer, fairer trade. In my opinion, they are an investment … deferred consumption designed to yield returns in the future.

    The Democrats goal is a freer and more equitable society. I still reject their logic when they want to raise my taxes. 

    I also doubt that Trump really cares about freer trade. He sees trade as zero sum: one party always screws the other party. His goal is to somehow flip this in the US favor by taxing IS citizens. Tarrifs are not only bad policy, they fail to achieve their primary policy goals and just make everyone poorer. 

    • #14
    • July 7, 2018, at 4:30 AM PDT
    • Like
  15. blood thirsty neocon Inactive

    Jamie Lockett (View Comment):

    Ekosj (View Comment):

    Jamie Lockett (View Comment):

    Ekosj (View Comment):

    Jamie Lockett (View Comment):

    blood thirsty neocon (View Comment):

    It’s good news, but the recession will still be here soon. Sorry, it’s not Trump’s fault; it’s just the laws of economics. You can’t repeal the business cycle. Let’s just pray the recession is short and mild.

    A trade war isn’t going to help.

    Like any investment, you forego some current consumption in the hope of better returns in the future. Sometimes it doesn’t work out. There is always risk. But no risk no rewards.

    Tariffs are a tax not an investment.

    That depends what you are trying to accomplish. Trump’s goal is freer, fairer trade. In my opinion, they are an investment … deferred consumption designed to yield returns in the future.

    The Democrats goal is a freer and more equitable society. I still reject their logic when they want to raise my taxes.

    I also doubt that Trump really cares about freer trade. He sees trade as zero sum: one party always screws the other party. His goal is to somehow flip this in the US favor by taxing IS citizens. Tarrifs are not only bad policy, they fail to achieve their primary policy goals and just make everyone poorer.

    Nah, we’ll be fine.

    • #15
    • July 7, 2018, at 6:07 AM PDT
    • Like
  16. Ekosj Member
    Ekosj

    Jamie Lockett (View Comment):

    Ekosj (View Comment):

    Jamie Lockett (View Comment):

    Ekosj (View Comment):

    Jamie Lockett (View Comment):

    blood thirsty neocon (View Comment):

    It’s good news, but the recession will still be here soon. Sorry, it’s not Trump’s fault; it’s just the laws of economics. You can’t repeal the business cycle. Let’s just pray the recession is short and mild.

    A trade war isn’t going to help.

    Like any investment, you forego some current consumption in the hope of better returns in the future. Sometimes it doesn’t work out. There is always risk. But no risk no rewards.

    Tariffs are a tax not an investment.

    That depends what you are trying to accomplish. Trump’s goal is freer, fairer trade. In my opinion, they are an investment … deferred consumption designed to yield returns in the future.

    The Democrats goal is a freer and more equitable society. I still reject their logic when they want to raise my taxes.

    I also doubt that Trump really cares about freer trade. He sees trade as zero sum: one party always screws the other party. His goal is to somehow flip this in the US favor by taxing IS citizens. Tarrifs are not only bad policy, they fail to achieve their primary policy goals and just make everyone poorer.

    If one was imposing tariffs on a system of already existing free trade you’d be right. But we don’t have that. We have a system of ‘managed’ trade. And in many instances the terms of that managed trade are unfavorable to the US. How to deal with that? How to deal with theft of intellectual property? How to deal with artificially low / government subsidized prices designed to drive US companies out of business? Or does none of that matter? As long as you can buy cheap stuff from overseas, stolen property or not, you are willing to see your neighbors out of work?

    • #16
    • July 7, 2018, at 6:18 AM PDT
    • 4 likes
  17. blood thirsty neocon Inactive

    A few things are certain: the President ran on this policy; he is keeping his promise; and he’s standing up to China’s unfair trade and domestic business practices. He knows that this policy is hurting some of his supporters in an election year, but he’s willing to face those supporters on a weekly basis and explain his policy. That takes cohones. I respect cohones, and I’m willing to bet that even those Trump supporters who are hurt by this policy respect cohones too. 

    • #17
    • July 7, 2018, at 7:20 AM PDT
    • 2 likes
  18. Stad Coolidge

    Ekosj: This increase in the Labor Force means people think things are looking up. Increasing wages and job prospects have induced people to return to the Labor Force.

    And the left thinks these good numbers are “reckless” . . .

    • #18
    • July 7, 2018, at 12:30 PM PDT
    • Like
  19. JosePluma Thatcher

    dnewlander (View Comment):

    0bama . . .

    I see what you did there 😊

     

    • #19
    • July 8, 2018, at 5:41 AM PDT
    • Like
  20. Randy Webster Member

    Jamie Lockett (View Comment):
    The Democrats goal is a freer and more equitable society.

    How do you figure? Are you going to argue that the EPA makes us freer, and affirmative action makes society more equitable?

    • #20
    • July 8, 2018, at 5:42 AM PDT
    • 1 like
  21. JosePluma Thatcher

    Ekosj (View Comment):
    Trump’s goal is freer, fairer trade.

    “Free” trade and “fair” trade are opposites.

    Jamie Lockett (View Comment):
    The Democrats goal is a freer and more equitable society.

    Freedom and equality are also opposites.

    • #21
    • July 8, 2018, at 6:49 AM PDT
    • Like
  22. ctlaw Coolidge

    JosePluma (View Comment):
    “Free” trade and “fair” trade are opposites.

    Situation 1: China has 25% tariffs and the US 5%.

    Situation 2: China has 5% tariffs and the US 5%.

    2 is freer and fairer than 1.

    • #22
    • July 8, 2018, at 7:49 AM PDT
    • 1 like
  23. Jamie Lockett Inactive

    Randy Webster (View Comment):

    Jamie Lockett (View Comment):
    The Democrats goal is a freer and more equitable society.

    How do you figure? Are you going to argue that the EPA makes us freer, and affirmative action makes society more equitable?

    Of course not, but that has no bearing on their goal. The fact that their proposed solutions are counter productive doesn’t change their intentions. 

    This is the problem with modern politics: we cast those on the other side as evil people with the intention of enslaving us and making things worse. Both sides do it and it makes engagement impossible. 

    • #23
    • July 8, 2018, at 9:37 AM PDT
    • Like
  24. Jamie Lockett Inactive

    JosePluma (View Comment):

    Ekosj (View Comment):
    Trump’s goal is freer, fairer trade.

    “Free” trade and “fair” trade are opposites.

    Jamie Lockett (View Comment):
    The Democrats goal is a freer and more equitable society.

    Freedom and equality are also opposites.

    It depends on what you mean by equality. Freedom is required for true equality imo. 

    • #24
    • July 8, 2018, at 9:38 AM PDT
    • Like
  25. JosePluma Thatcher

    ctlaw (View Comment):

    JosePluma (View Comment):
    “Free” trade and “fair” trade are opposites.

    Situation 1: China has 25% tariffs and the US 5%.

    Situation 2: China has 5% tariffs and the US 5%.

    2 is freer and fairer than 1.

    That would be true if the tariffs were the only factor. When debating about “fairness,” what is usually mentioned is labor costs. Then there’s the regulatory burden, price supports, farm subsidies, copyright protection, commodity prices, transaction and transportation costs, and etc., etc., etc. That’s why trade agreements are so complex. (That’s also why I put quotations on “free” and “fair.“) Unfortunately, the tariffs are usually only a blunt instrument used in response to these complexities. 

    • #25
    • July 8, 2018, at 1:03 PM PDT
    • 1 like
  26. JosePluma Thatcher

    Jamie Lockett (View Comment):

    JosePluma (View Comment):

    Ekosj (View Comment):
    Trump’s goal is freer, fairer trade.

    “Free” trade and “fair” trade are opposites.

    Jamie Lockett (View Comment):
    The Democrats goal is a freer and more equitable society.

    Freedom and equality are also opposites.

    It depends on what you mean by equality. Freedom is required for true equality imo.

    My favorite quote about freedom goes something like this:

    ”You cannot be both free and equal, for when freedom is given full rein the inequities multiply.”

    (I can’t remember where I read this quote and have been unable to find it. If anyone knows who said this, I would very much appreciate the information.)

    Of course they are not true opposites since it possible to be unfree and unequal. (As any socialist state and most college campuses demonstrate.)

    • #26
    • July 8, 2018, at 1:24 PM PDT
    • Like
  27. ctlaw Coolidge

    JosePluma (View Comment):

    ctlaw (View Comment):

    JosePluma (View Comment):
    “Free” trade and “fair” trade are opposites.

    Situation 1: China has 25% tariffs and the US 5%.

    Situation 2: China has 5% tariffs and the US 5%.

    2 is freer and fairer than 1.

    That would be true if the tariffs were the only factor. When debating about “fairness,” what is usually mentioned is labor costs. Then there’s the regulatory burden, price supports, farm subsidies, copyright protection, commodity prices, transaction and transportation costs, and etc., etc., etc. That’s why trade agreements are so complex. (That’s also why I put quotations on “free” and “fair.“) Unfortunately, the tariffs are usually only a blunt instrument used in response to these complexities.

    How does what you say not make Trump’s case even stronger vis a vis most of the trade issues we have with China? I concur that we need to force other countries to get rid of their non-tariff barriers as well.

    You do highlight a relevant point, we have allowed the term “free trade” to be abused to describe a system of very unfree trade. Rather than fight to reclaim the term, Trump et al. end up using another term that creates its own baggage.

     

    • #27
    • July 8, 2018, at 1:33 PM PDT
    • Like
  28. Jamie Lockett Inactive

    JosePluma (View Comment):

    Jamie Lockett (View Comment):

    JosePluma (View Comment):

    Ekosj (View Comment):
    Trump’s goal is freer, fairer trade.

    “Free” trade and “fair” trade are opposites.

    Jamie Lockett (View Comment):
    The Democrats goal is a freer and more equitable society.

    Freedom and equality are also opposites.

    It depends on what you mean by equality. Freedom is required for true equality imo.

    My favorite quote about freedom goes something like this:

    ”You cannot be both free and equal, for when freedom is given full rein the inequities multiply.”

    (I can’t remember where I read this quote and have been unable to find it. If anyone knows who said this, I would very much appreciate the information.)

    Of course they are not true opposites since it possible to be unfree and unequal. (As any socialist state and most college campuses demonstrate.)

    This hinges on the difference between equality of opportunity and outcome. 

    • #28
    • July 8, 2018, at 1:36 PM PDT
    • Like
  29. Randy Webster Member

    Jamie Lockett (View Comment):
    This hinges on the difference between equality of opportunity and outcome. 

    And the progressives mostly believe in equality of outcome (for the plebes, I mean).

    • #29
    • July 8, 2018, at 1:52 PM PDT
    • 1 like

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